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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 7:48:05 GMT
Yeah, while I certainly wouldn’t call them ‘rubbish’, I think Pete Whitehead’s methodology will work far less well for this election than it has previously. Certainly, from what I’ve seen of Lib Dem data our strength within seats will generally have been correlated more with the strength of the remain vote than our historic areas of strength. I can see that you have both Kingston and Wimbledon wrong, and I’d be pretty surprised if that was the pattern in Carshalton. Looking at the figures that martinwhelton has posted on the relevant constituency threads, my numbers were not at all far out in Wimbledon. If we were to use the fault system as applied in the prediction competition the fault was less than 10% everywhere except West Barnes and less than 5% in half the wards. I had the wrong winner only in Canon Hill and West Barnes and the former was due to my finessing the result there to account for the recent by-election - had I left well alone the Conservatives would have been ahead there. West Barnes was significantly out and Village had the next highest number of 'faults' but that could be down to the leveling effect of the inclusion of postal votes from across the constituency (which therefore reduced the Conservative % there on the official numbers and inflated Labour). Carshalton & Wallington is clearly a bit arse over tit |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 8:13:09 GMT
Can we have South Yorkshire please?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 8:19:16 GMT
Can we have South Yorkshire please? Funnily enough I had started working on South Yorkshire but I wasn't happy with it - I need to incorporate more recent local election data (but ward boundary changes cause a problem in some areas) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 8:22:10 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 26, 2019 9:19:18 GMT
Can we have South Yorkshire please? Get away with your fake Wales! I challenge Pete Whitehead to do the real Wales! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 9:23:18 GMT
Can we have South Yorkshire please? Get away with your fake Wales! I challenge Pete Whitehead to do the real Wales! Well it won't be easy but with the FTPA I hoped I would have been able to get the whole country done following the 2015 election. Obviously it didn't quite work out that way but now we should finally get a parliament running to full term I may be able to get it done |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 10:39:09 GMT
Can we have South Yorkshire please? Get away with your fake Wales! I challenge Pete Whitehead to do the real Wales! That remark doesn't Sitwell with me. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2019 10:55:42 GMT
Pete Whitehead Surely Labour must have won something in Dudley? St Thomas will have seen Labour get at least double the number of votes the Tories got in 2017 and it’s got a decent Asian population + a relatively low previous UKIP vote (for Dudley). Still, terrible result for a council where they literally hold 1/2 the seats!
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 26, 2019 11:02:08 GMT
Get away with your fake Wales! I challenge Pete Whitehead to do the real Wales! That remark doesn't Sitwell with me. Ain’t Notton wrong with a bit of banter. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 26, 2019 11:14:36 GMT
Get away with your fake Wales! I challenge Pete Whitehead to do the real Wales! That remark doesn't Sitwell with me. Sacheverell to do with you and you can Renishaw off to your Wales. Take the long route through Spion Kop and Rhodesia. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 11:17:36 GMT
That remark doesn't Sitwell with me. Sacheverell to do with you and you can Renishaw off to your Wales. Take the long route through Spion Kop and Rhodesia. You killed the joke. 🙂 |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 26, 2019 11:29:08 GMT
Sacheverell to do with you and you can Renishaw off to your Wales. Take the long route through Spion Kop and Rhodesia. You killed the joke. 🙂 Well! You took a month to kill off puns and I was following your lead. Did it spoil your very well made joke? I don't think so? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 11:31:13 GMT
Well! You took a month to kill off puns and I was following your lead. Did it spoil your very well made joke? I don't think so? 🙂 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 11:35:24 GMT
Pete Whitehead Surely Labour must have won something in Dudley? St Thomas will have seen Labour get at least double the number of votes the Tories got in 2017 and it’s got a decent Asian population + a relatively low previous UKIP vote (for Dudley). Still, terrible result for a council where they literally hold 1/2 the seats! I don't think so though it's possible. St Thomas is clearly their best ward and they're well over 40% there but its not as if it's the only ward in the constituency with Labour strength. They'd normally be carrying Castle & Priory, St James's and at least be competitive in Upper Gornal. So yeah when they're getting beaten by two to one in the constituency I don't think they won any wards |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 11:45:30 GMT
Labour winning Dudley squat in the General Election wouldn't shock me!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 12:10:27 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 26, 2019 12:15:33 GMT
How did you deal with Gauke in your calculations, and do you have him coming at all close in any wards?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 12:27:35 GMT
How did you deal with Gauke in your calculations, and do you have him coming at all close in any wards? I'd take his vote to have been spread fairly evenly except being weak in South Oxhey and on the whole doing better and coming closer in the wards where the Lib Dems are strong, so the closest on that basis would be in Croxley Green, Chorleywood West and so on, but not particularly close. The reality may be very different of course - it's quite unhelpful that he stood and did so well to be honest |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 26, 2019 12:31:43 GMT
How did you deal with Gauke in your calculations, and do you have him coming at all close in any wards? I'd take his vote to have been spread fairly evenly except being weak in South Oxhey and on the whole doing better and coming closer in the wards where the Lib Dems are strong, so the closest on that basis would be in Croxley Green, Chorleywood West and so on, but not particularly close. The reality may be very different of course - it's quite unhelpful that he stood and did so well to be honest Yeah, I think a lot of the independents may make your life more difficult. If you do Devon, Claire Wright will probably be even harder, since given her margin she may have taken some areas. I think Zadrozny might help you though, since the Ashfield Independents are locally active and strong, so if they didn't stand your calculations would be more off. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 26, 2019 12:49:16 GMT
The importance of ethnic minority voters in Labour's voter base  Woden wept. A foreign capital city! |
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