Prediction Competition - November 2019

[Tony Otim]

This week optimism triumphs over my usual instincts:

North Norfolk: LD 56.3; Con 34.9; Lab 8.8

Oxfordshire: Grn 35.1; Con 29.3; Ind 27.9; Lab 7.7

Wiltshire: LD 52.5; Con 47.5

[greenhert]

North Norfolk DC, Sheringham North: Liberal Democrats 54, Conservative 38, Labour 8.
Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford: Independent (Hornsby) 37, Conservative 29, Green 28, Labour 6.
Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Lambrook: Liberal Democrats 51, Conservative 49. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

[iainbhx]

Sheringham North (North Norfolk DC) : LDm 51 Con 42 Lab 7
Wallingford (Oxfordshire CC): Grn 38 Con 31 Ind 26 Lab 5
Trowbridge Lambrok (Wiltshire UA): LDm 53 Con 47

[Toylyyev]

North Norfolk DC, Sheringham North:
Conservative 37, Labour 6, Liberal Democrat 57.

Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford:
Conservative 35, Labour 5, Green 45, Independent 15.

Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Lambrok:
Conservative 48, Liberal Democrat 52.

[yellowperil]

North Norfolk, Sheringham N: Con 44, Lab 6, LD 50
Oxfordshire,Wallingford: Con 33, Lab 4, Green 36. Ind 28
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Lambrook: Con 48, LD 52

[andrewp]

North Norfolk. Sheringham North Lib Dem 59, Con 32, Lab 9
Oxfordshire, Wallingford. Ind 35, Con 30, Green 27, Lab 8
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Lambrook Lib Dem 51, Con 49

[Robert Waller]

North Norfolk. Sheringham North Lib Dem 58, Con 38, Lab 4
Oxfordshire, Wallingford. Ind 30, Con 28, Green 37, Lab 5
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Lambrook Lib Dem 55, Con 45

[lancastrian]

North Norfolk: LD 50 Con 36 Lab 14
Oxfordshire: Green 35 Con 32 Ind 22 Lab 11
Wiltshire: LD 53 Con 47

[Right Leaning]

North Norfolk: Sheringham North LD 52, C 41, Lab 7
Oxfordshire: Wallingford Gn 36, C 30, Ind 29, Lab 5
Wiltshire: Trowbridge Lambrook LD 53, C 47

[olympian95]

North Norfolk : LD 53, Con 40, Lab 7

Oxon: Green 33, Indy 29 Con 24, Lab 14

Wiltshire: LD 52, Con 48

[Davıd Boothroyd]

NORTH NORFOLK Sheringham North: L Dem 50, C 44, Lab 6
OXFORDSHIRE Wallingford: Ind 36, C 31, GP 25, Lab 8
WILTSHIRE Trowbridge Lambrok: L Dem 60, C 40

[Deleted]

North Norfolk: LD 45 Con 40 Lab 15
Oxfordshire: Green 30 Con 40 Ind 20 Lab 10
Wiltshire: LD 55 Con 45

[Robert Waller]

Must wait for Robbie, of course, but my rough reckonings suggest Iain may have won the week and Toylyyev the month.

Anyway, congrats to whoever has ...!

[robbienicoll]

Thought I might get away with a couple of pints out tonight but been outdone by very efficient returning officers!

13 entries this week. Yellowperil gets a fault for adding to 101 in Wallingford whilst David Boothroyd and priceofdawn get 3x2 faults apiece for posting just over the deadline.

Sheringham North, North Norfolk: 100% Lib Dem hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (priceofdawn) to 27% (andrewp).
Wallingford, Oxfordshire: 8 Green gain from Independent, with alien8ted, andrewp, David Boothroyd and greenrobinhood Independent win and priceofdawn Conservative gain.
Trowbridge Lambrook, Wiltshire: 100% Lib Dem gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 0.4% (alien8ted) to 20% (David Boothroyd).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OsJ0b_1iy9gYjA--v3R1JvC7UpPWfVRk2iv3FcW_ka4/edit?usp=sharing and should be completed in ten minutes or so!

[yellowperil]

Nov 29, 2019 0:15:53 GMT Robert Waller said:

Must wait for Robbie, of course, but my rough reckonings suggest Iain may have won the week and Toylyyev the month.

Anyway, congrats to whoever has ...!

Except I think this month won't end until Dec 5th? Though maybe that not likely to change much?

[robbienicoll]

That's the results now finalised and they match with Robert's so congratulations to Iain for the week and Toylyyev for the month, although as pointed out by Yellow Peril I've added in one more next week to avoid doing 40 odd for December. For clarity, that's the Rhondda by-election next week in Ynshir ward with only Labour and Plaid Cymru standing - PC defence. Predictions on this thread as per.

[Toylyyev]

4th week of November added to the evaluation record of Conservative candidates.

Thursday#/Month  5/10  1/11  2/11  3/11  4/11    Σ   |       Error Points
Σ Con. result % 109.5  86.8 223.5 230.9 116.2  766.9 | 5/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11    Σ
----------ward#---3-----3-----8-----6-----3-----23--↓|--------------------------------
      alien8ted 104.6 107.5 272   228.9 119.1  832.1 | 13.9 20.7 67.2 42.1 14.2  158.1
  Right Leaning 109   110   245   216   118    798   |  9.6 23.2 44.9 37.2  7.7  122.6
        iainbhx  98   102   251   207.5 120    778.5 | 11.5 24.2 48.9 35.7  5.7  126
    priceofdawn 107   105   225   211   125    773   | 12.2 18.2 40.8 59.2 14.7  145.1
    yellowperil  98    93   245   206   125    767   | 11.5 31.2 42.2 42.5  8.8  136.2
      Tony Otim 105.1  91.4 241.8 203   111.7  753   | 12.8 12.2 52.8 41   15    133.8
 greenrobinhood 100    87   239   210   116    752   | 11.1 19.2 40.9 45.2 13.7  130.1
       Toylyyev 108.1 101   209.5 203.9 120    742.5 | 15.3 14.2 23   30   15.7   98.2
   robertwaller  98    96   227   205   111    737   | 13.1 18.2 40.5 46.2 10.7  128.7
David Boothroyd  92    89   217   203   115    716   | 17.5 15.2 53   32.2  3.3  121.2
        andrewp  92    89   219   200   111    711   | 17.5 21.2 38.1 36.9 18.7  132.4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 101.1  97.4 235.6 208.6 117.4  760   | 13.3 19.8 44.8 40.7 11.7  130.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 casualobserver n/a    96.9 n/a   n/a   n/a     96.9↓| n/a  11.1 n/a  n/a  n/a
_______________________________________________(86.8̣)|              
      johnloony  94    94.1 239   n/a   n/a    427.1↓| 23.1 16.3 50.1 n/a  n/a
______________________________________________(419.8)| 
   lancastrian  n/a    89   203   183   115          | n/a  15.2 39.9 47.9 12.7
_______________ →98.3__________________________688.3_|→13.2______________________128.9
     olympian95  70   104   245   196   112          | 11.3 24.2 49   48.1 15.7
________________→94.4__________________________751.4_|→16.9______________________153.9
  yorkshireluke 102   n/a   n/a   n/a   n/a    102  ↓| 19.2 n/a  n/a  n/a  n/a
______________________________________________(109.5)|           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 100    97   234.2 205.6 116.8        | 14.6 19  45.1  41.9 12.1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

RHONDDA CYNON TAF UA; Ynyshir

EDWARDS, Julie (Labour)- 40%
PARRY, Adrian Edward (Plaid Cymru)- 60%

👽

[Tony Otim]

Rhondda Cynon Taf: PC 66.6; Lab 33.4

[greenhert]

Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Ynyshir: Plaid Cymru 64, Labour 36.