Prediction Competition - November 2019

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ABERDEEN Torry and Ferryhill: SNP 35, C 25, Lab 19, L Dem 10, SGP 6, Ind 4, UKIP 1. SNP win.
CARDIFF Llanishen: C 42, Lab 34, L Dem 15, PC 6, GP 3, Ind 1
CHICHESTER Loxwood: L Dem 49, C 43, GP 7, Patria 1
MORAY Keith and Cullen: SNP 44, C 35, Ind 11, L Dem 10. SNP win.
WEST LANCASHIRE Birch Green: Lab 56, Skem Ind 37, C 7
WEST SUSSEX Bourne: C 51, L Dem 37, GP 6, Lab 5, Patria 1

[andrewp]

Aberdeen. Torry and Ferryhill. SNP 37, Con 29, Lab 16, LD 8, Green 4, Ind 4, UKIP 2. SNP win
Cardiff, Llanishen Con 38, Lab 33, PC 11, Lib Dem 8, Ind 5, Green 5
Chichester, Loxwood Con 46 Lib Dem 44, Green 9, patria 1
Moray, Keith and Cullen, SNP 44, Con 32, Ind 14, Lib Dem 10. SNp win
West Lancashire, Birch Green. Lab 55, Skelm 38, Con 7
West Sussex, Con 48, Lib Dem 36, Lab 8, Green 7, Patria 1

[Robert Waller]

Aberdeen. Torry and Ferryhill. SNP 37, Con 29, Lab 18, LD 11, Green 3, Ind 1, UKIP 1. SNP win
Cardiff, Llanishen Con 38, Lab 32, PC 8, Lib Dem 13, Ind 5, Green 4
Chichester, Loxwood Con 41, Lib Dem 43, Green 12, Patria 4
Moray, Keith and Cullen, SNP 42, Con 36, Ind 10, Lib Dem 12. SNP win
West Lancashire, Birch Green. Lab 55, Skelm 40, Con 5
West Sussex, Con 56, Lib Dem 31, Lab 5, Green 6, Patria 2

[lancastrian]

Aberdeen: SNP 39 Con 25 Lab 17 LD 13 Green 4 UKIP 1 Ind 1 (SNP win)
Cardiff: Con 37 Lab 32 PC 12 LD 11 Green 5 Ind 3
Chichester: LD 49 Con 41 Green 8 Patria 2
Moray: SNP 43 Con 31 Ind 18 LD 8 (SNP win)
West Lancs: Lab 52 Skem Ind 41 Con 7
West Sussex: LD 43 Con 42 Lab 8 Green 6 Patria 1

[greenhert]

Aberdeen UA, Torry & Ferryhill (1st preferences): SNP 40, Conservative 27, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 3, UKIP 1, Independent (McLean) 1. SNP hold.
Cardiff UA, Llanishen: Conservative 40, Labour 35, Plaid Cymru 9, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 4, Independent (Gwynn) 3. Conservative gain from Labour.
Chichester DC, Loxwood: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 40, Green 14, Patria 1.
Moray UA, Keith & Cullen (1st preferences): SNP 39, Conservative 35, Independent (Barsby) 17, Liberal Democrats 9. SNP gain from Independent.
West Lancashire DC, Birch Green: Labour 50, Skelmersdale Independents 42, Conservative 8.
West Sussex CC, Bourne: Conservative 60, Liberal Democrats 28, Green 7, Labour 4, Patria 1.

[iainbhx]

Torry and Ferryhill (Aberdeen SUA): SNP 32 CON 25 Lab 21 LDm 11 Grn 6 Ind 4 UKIP 1 SNP Win on Transfers
Llanishen (Cardiff SUA): Con 34 Lab 30 PC 19 LDm 8 Grn 6 Ind 3
Loxwood (Chichester DC): Con 49.5 LDm 45 Grn 5 Patria 0.5
Keith & Cullen (Moray SUA): SNP 38 Con 36 Ind 18 LDm 8 CON Win on Transfers
Birch Green (West Lancs DC): Lab 62 Skem Ind 30 Con 8
Bourne (West Sussex CC): Con 55 LDm 27 Grn 10 Lab 7.5 Patria 0.5

[Deleted]

Aberdeen. Torry and Ferryhill. SNP 30, Con 35, Lab 10, LD 15, Green 5, Ind 4, UKIP 1. SNP win
Cardiff, Llanishen Con 40, Lab 35, PC 5, Lib Dem 10, Ind 5, Green 5
Chichester, Loxwood Con 41 Lib Dem 50, Green 8, patria 1
Moray, Keith and Cullen, SNP 40, Con 35, Ind 10, Lib Dem 15. SNP win
West Lancashire, Birch Green. Lab 50, Skelm 30, Con 20
West Sussex, Con 40, Lib Dem 35, Lab 11, Green 13, Patria 1

[Toylyyev]

Aberdeen UA, Torry and Ferryhill:
Conservative 27.5, Labour 16.5, Liberal Democrat 12, Green 8, SNP 33, UKIP 1, Independent 2. SNP win on transfers.

Cardiff CC, Llanishen:
Conservative 31, Labour 31.1, Liberal Democrat 16, Green 8, Plaid Cymru 12, Independent 1.9.

Chichester DC, Loxwood:
Conservative 60, Liberal Democrat 30, Green 7, Patria 3.

Moray UA, Keith and Cullen:
Conservative 32.5, Liberal Democrat 9, SNP 44, Independent 14.5. SNP win on transfers.

West Lancashire DC, Birch Green:
Conservative 8.9, Labour 45.6, Skelmersdale Independent 45.5.

West Sussex CC, Bourne:
Conservative 44, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 43.9, Green 6.1, Patria 1.

[Right Leaning]

Aberdeen. Torry and Ferryhill. SNP 35, C 33, Lab 14, LD 12, Gn 3, Ind 2, UKIP 1. SNP win
Cardiff, Llanishen C 36, Lab 32, LD 11, PC 9, Gn 7, Ind 5.
Chichester, Loxwood C 48, LD 40, Gn 10, Patria 2.
Moray, Keith and Cullen, SNP 40, C 38, Ind 12, LD 10. SNP win
West Lancashire, Birch Green. Lab 50, Sk Ind 42, C 8.
West Sussex, Bourne C 53, LD 34, Lab 5, Gn 7, Lab 5, Patria 1.

[yellowperil]

Aberdeen, Torry & Ferryhill: Con 27,Lab 16, LD 11, Green 4, UKIP 0.5, SNP 40, Ind 1.5, SNP win on transfers.
Cardiff, Llanishen: Con 39, Lab 32, LD 11, Green 5, PC 11, Ind 2
Chichester, Loxwood: Con 42, LD 44, Green 13, Pat 1
Moray, Keith & Cullen: Con 32, LD 10, SNP 40, Ind 18, SNP win on transfers.
West Lancs, Birch Green : Con 13, Lab 43, Sk Ind 44
West Sussex, Bourne: Con 53, Lab 4, LD 36, Green 6, Pat 1.

[olympian95]

Aberdeen: SNP 36, Con 22, Lab 21, LD 9, Green 7, Ind 3, UKIP 2 - SNP win

Cardiff: Con 40, Lab 37, PC 10, LD 9, Green 3, Indy 1

Chichester: LD 47, Con 44, Green 8, Patria 1

Moray: SNP 35, Con 29, Indy 26, LD 10 -
SNP win

West Lancs: Lab 48, Skelmersdale 36, Con 16

West Sussex: Con 45, LD 30, Lab 15, Green 8, Patria 2

[johnloony]

Too busy with delivering leaflets.

[robbienicoll]

13 entries this week, with johnloony off this week and casualobserver missing again. David Boothroyd gets 1 fault for adding to 101 in Cardiff, other than that all present and correct.

Torry and Ferryhill, Aberdeen: 100% SNP overall hold, with 11 having the SNP in first for first preferences, alien8ted and priceofdawn opting for the Conservatives first for first preferences.
Llanishen, Cardiff: 12 Conservative gain from Labour, with Toylyyev Labour hold.
Loxwood, Chichester: 8 Liberal Democrat hold, with andrewp, iainbhx, Right Leaning, Tony Otim and Toylyyev Conservative gain.
Keith and Cullen, Moray: 100% SNP ahead on first preferences, with 12 having the SNP gain from Independent after transfers, with iainbhx Conservative gain.
Birch Green, West Lancashire: 12 Labour hold, with yellowperil Skelmersdale Independent gain.
Bourne, West Sussex: 12 Conservative hold, with lancastrian Liberal Democrat gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IKvFIRYb8bsLZXG7MMSkIz6lxxr3NqlpPnJMbUI6WhU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I'll also post an update for the December contests tomorrow.

[yellowperil]

I am sure we are all waiting patiently for Robbie to update his spreadsheet with the remaining 4 elections of the week.. But don't rush Robbie, the Month's listing looks really good as its been standing all night, and I think its not going to be pretty what you do to it when its updated

[robbienicoll]

Nov 22, 2019 12:05:24 GMT yellowperil said:

I am sure we are all waiting patiently for Robbie to update his spreadsheet with the remaining 4 elections of the week.. But don't rush Robbie, the Month's listing looks really good as its been standing all night, and I think its not going to be pretty what you do to it when its updated

Yes, I think that Birch Green may have done it for you there! Still waiting on Loxwood's raw figures and Moray to finish counting.

As for the 5th December by-election, although I do like the idea of running the entire lot in December I recognise that most folk will be busy with other elections going on on the 12th. I wouldn't like to see the one on the 5th go to waste and as it's only the one with two candidates it's not the biggest commitment. So I'm happy to add the by-election on the 5th (Ynyshir, Rhondda WUA; PC defence with PC and Lab candidates) onto this month and give everyone the rest of the month off. 

[robbienicoll]

Congratulations to andrewp for the week, now ten faults ahead of Toylyyev for the month. Speaking of the latter, if he'd be willing to share the lottery numbers for this weekend after that Loxwood prediction I'd be very grateful!

[yellowperil]

Yes, congrats to Andrew for sheer consistency and to Toylyyev for exceptional brilliance when it's working for him!

Just for a while I had it going,  then came badly unstuck on the ones that couldn't be finalised until the second day- (suspicious that , I always feel )

Maybe I could get back in the race by leaving my brilliant comeback to the 2-horse competition on the 5th? Somehow that doesn't seem very likely. 


Well done, Robbie.

[Toylyyev]

Nov 22, 2019 13:00:55 GMT robbienicoll said:

Congratulations to andrewp for the week, now ten faults ahead of Toylyyev for the month. Speaking of the latter, if he'd be willing to share the lottery numbers for this weekend after that Loxwood prediction I'd be very grateful!

My prime suspect is the venture of improvising rights of ways while roaming the South Downs in deep snow. 

They're not the wuthering heights, but there are other charms. And if luck gives some 20 centimeters of white matter an opportunity to take even for seasoned ramblers.

[Toylyyev]

The updated table for the evaluation record of Conservative candidates introduced here last week.

Thursday#/Month  5/10  1/11  2/11  3/11    Σ   |       Error Points
Σ Con. result % 109.5  86.8 223.5 230.9  650.7 | 5/10 1/11 2/11 3/11    Σ
----------ward#---3-----3-----8-----6-----20--↓|-------------------------
      alien8ted 104.6 107.5 272   228.9  713   | 13.9 20.7 67.2 42.1  143.9
  Right Leaning 109   110   245   216    680   |  9.6 23.2 44.9 37.2  114.9
        iainbhx  98   102   251   207.5  658.5 | 11.5 24.2 48.9 35.7  120.3
    priceofdawn 107   105   225   211    648   | 12.2 18.2 40.8 59.2  130.4
    yellowperil  98    93   245   206    642   | 11.5 31.2 42.2 42.5  127.4
      Tony Otim 105.1  91.4 241.8 203    641.3 | 12.8 12.2 52.8 41    118.8
 greenrobinhood 100    87   239   210    636   | 11.1 19.2 40.9 45.2  116.4
   robertwaller  98    96   227   205    626   | 13.1 18.2 40.5 46.2  118
       Toylyyev 108.1 101   209.5 203.9  622.5 | 15.3 14.2 23   30     82.5
David Boothroyd  92    89   217   203    601   | 17.5 15.2 53   32.2  117.9
        andrewp  92    89   219   200    600   | 17.5 21.2 38.1 36.9  113.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 101.1  97.4 235.6 208.6  642.9 | 13.3 19.8 44.8 40.7  118.6
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 casualobserver n/a    96.9 n/a   n/a     96.9↓| n/a  11.1 n/a  n/a
_________________________________________(86.8̣)|              
      johnloony  94    94.1 239   n/a    427.1↓| 23.1 16.3 50.1 n/a
________________________________________(419.8)| 
   lancastrian  n/a    89   203   183          | n/a  15.2 39.9 47.9
_______________ →96.1____________________571.1_|→14.1_________________117.1
     olympian95  70   104   245   196          | 11.3 24.2 49   48.1
________________→94.4____________________639.4_|→16.9_________________138.2
  yorkshireluke 102   n/a   n/a   n/a    102  ↓| 19.2 n/a  n/a  n/a
________________________________________(109.5)|           
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 100.6  97   234.2 205.6        | 14.5 19  45.1  41.9

_{I did consider not putting it up to evade showing off blame.}

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

North Norfolk - Sheringham North

Liberal Democrat - 56.4%; Conservative; 37.3%; Labour 6.3%

Oxfordshire cc - Wallingford

Independent - 34.3%; Conservative 32%; Green 25%; Labour 8.7%

Wiltshire UA - Trowbridge Lambrook

Liberal Democrat 50.2%; Conservative 49.8%

👽