Prediction Competition - November 2019

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 23 by-elections during November:
- 6 on 7th October
- 8 on 14th
- 6 on 21st
- 3 on 28th

6 of the by-elections are for District Councils, four elected in May and two where the last election was in May
3 are in a Unitary Authority, one where the last election was in May and two where the last election was in 2017
7 are for Scottish authorities last elected in 2017
1 is for a London Metropolitan Borough last elected in 2018
2 are for County Councils last elected in 2017 and
4 are for Welsh authorities last elected in 2017

Conservatives defend 6 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 5 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as Brexit Party
Labour defend 4 seats, all following resignations
Liberal Democrats defend 5 seats, all following resignations, 1 of which was sitting as Green
Independents defend 5 seats, 1 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 a resignation
SNP defend 3 seats, all following resignations

With all seats bar one having declared nominations:
Conservatives have a slate of 20 candidates, Labour have 14, Liberal Democrats have 17, Greens have 13, SNP have 6, Plaid Cymru have 3, Women’s Equality, Libertarian Party and Patria have 2, whilst Brexit Party, UKIP, Skelmersdale Independent, Putting Cumbria First and Tunbridge Wells Association have 1 apiece along with 20 Independents and 7 No Description contesting 13 seats
- a total of 111 candidates for 22 seats.

For the purposes of sanity both Shetland elections will not be part of the competition however entries are more than welcome to have a crack at them for bragging rights. Pembrokeshire will be included as there is more than one registered party involved.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[johnloony]

I predict:

Chelmsford LD 44 Con 29 Lab 16 Grn 9 Ind 7
Cornwall LD 50 Con 30 Grn 8 Ind 6 Ind 6
Croydon: prediction done earlier
Pembrokeshire: Con 20 LD 10 Ind 10 Ind 10 Ind 10 Ind 10 Ind 10 Ind 10 Ind 10
Shetland Lerwick S: Ind 20 Ind 20 Ind 20 Ind 20 Ind 20
Shetland C: Ind 21 Ind 21 Ind 21 Ind 21 SNP 16

[andrewp]

I think that’s a sensible move not to include either Shetland contest

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The rule previously was that contests solely between Independents / no description candidates were excluded, but ones in which a political party had a candidate were included. That would mean Shetland Central is eligible but Lerwick South is not.

[yellowperil]

Nov 4, 2019 19:27:16 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The rule previously was that contests solely between Independents / no description candidates were excluded, but ones in which a political party had a candidate were included. That would mean Shetland Central is eligible but Lerwick South is not.

A case for favouring common sense over past practice?

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

A new precedent set. 

Immediately drags robbienicoll to Forum Speakers Chair.


👽

[robbienicoll]

I'd seen that that was previous precedent, but yeah I can't see it being particularly productive including Shetland Central where it's unlikely anyone would have much of an idea of a hyper-localised contest. The success of the SNP pretty much relies on candidate selection so I would argue is as good as an all-independent contest. As said though, if anyone wants to have a go then feel free and I'll include it separately in the results.

[yellowperil]

I guess this week's remaining 4 contests, and not least Pembrokeshire, will provide quite sufficient challenge, thank you.

[Tony Otim]

Chelmsford: LD 42.2; Con 27.6; Lab 15.8; Grn 9.0; Chambers 5.4
Corrnwall: LD 50.1; Con 30.7; Grn 7.3; Harris 6.7; Moorcroft 5.2
Croydon: Lab 41.2; Con 33.1; LD 13.7; Grn 7.8; WEQ 3.4; Samuel 0.8
Pembrokeshire: Alderman 24.6; Con 18.8; Hancock 14.4; Edwards 10.2; LD 8.7; Bush 7.5; Nutting 6.9; Grange 5.6; Stenson 3.3

[Deleted]

Chelmsford: LD 35; Con 40; Lab 10; Grn 10; Chambers 5
Corrnwall: LD 45; Con 35 Grn 10; Harris 5; Moorcroft 5
Croydon: Lab 35 Con 30; LD 10; Grn 10; WEQ 5; Samuel 5
Pembrokeshire: Alderman 30; Con 25; Hancock 10 Edwards 10 LD 5; Bush 5; Nutting 5; Grange 5; Stenson 5

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Chelmsford DC - Marconi
Liberal Democrat 39.3%
Conservative 33.7%
Labour 17%
Green 6.9%
Chambers - Independent 3.1%

Cornwall UA - Wodebridge West
Liberal Democrat 46.7%
Conservative 38.4%
Green 8.1%
Moorcroft - Independent 4.9%
Harris - No Description 1.9%

Croydon LBC - Fairfield
Conservative 35.4%
Labour 34.2%
Liberal Democrats 18%
Green 11%
Women's Equality Party 0.8%
Samuel - Independent 0.6%

Pembrokeshire - Hundleton
Alderman - independent 21%
Bush - no description 17%
Nutting - independent 16.8%
Edwards - independent 10%
Taylor - Conservative 9%
Hammond-Williams - Liberal Democrat 8.2%
Grange - independent 7%
Stenson - independent 6%
Hancock - independent 5%


& now for the real fun 🤣

Shetland UA - Lerwick S
Valente - independent 27%
Flaws - no description 21%
Henderson - independent 19%
Robinson - independent 17%
Wenger - independent 16%
Valente to win after transfers

Shetland UA - Shetland C
Buchan - independent 27%
Douglas - snp 26%
Adamson - no description 17%
Laverie - independent 16%
Lyall - no description 14%
Buchan to hold on after transfers

🤪


👽

[Tony Otim]

Nov 6, 2019 18:13:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Chelmsford DC - Marconi
Liberal Democrat 39.3%
Conservative 33.7%
Labour 17%
Green 6.9%
Chambers - Independent 3.1%

Cornwall UA - Wodebridge West
Liberal Democrat 42.7%
Conservative 38.4%
Green 6.1%
Labour 6%
Moorcroft - Independent 4.9%
Harris - No Description 1.9%

Croydon LBC - Fairfield
Conservative 35.4%
Labour 34.2%
Liberal Democrats 18%
Green 11%
Women's Equality Party 0.8%
Samuel - Independent 0.6%

Pembrokeshire - Hundleton
Alderman - independent 21%
Bush - no description 17%
Nutting - independent 16.8%
Edwards - independent 10%
Conservative 9%
Liberal Democrat 8.2%
Grange - independent 7%
Stenson - independent 6%
Hancock - independent 5%


& now for the real fun 🤣

Shetland UA - Lerwick S
Valente - independent 27%
Flaws - no description 21%
Henderson - independent 19%
Robinson - independent 17%
Wenger - independent 16%

Shetland UA - Shetland C
Buchan - independent 27%
Douglas - snp 26%
Adamson - no description 17%
Laverie - independent 16%
Lyall - no description 14%

🤪


👽

You've forgotten to say who will be elected after transfers in Shetland 😉

[iainbhx]

I admit it , I got the dice out for Hundleton

Marconi (Chelmsford DC) LDm 36% Con 34% Lab 22% Grn 5% Ind 3%
Wadebridge W (Cornwall UA) LDm 38% Con 30% Ind (Moorcroft) 18% Green 10% Ind (Harris) 4%
Fairfield (Croydon LBC) Lab 40% Con 38% LDm 14% Grn 6% WEP 1.5% Ind 0.5%
Hundleton (Pembroke WUA): Ind (Alderman) 20% Con 17% Ind (Bush) 14% Ind (Edwards) 13% Ind (Hancock) 10% LDm 8.1% Ind (Grange) 7.9% Ind (Nutting) 6% Ind (Stenson) 4%

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 6, 2019 20:51:56 GMT iainbhx said:

I admit it , I got the dice out for Hundleton

Marconi (Chelmsford DC) LDm 36% Con 34% Lab 22% Grn 5% Ind 3%

Have you heard that Lib Dem canvassers are getting mixed signals on the doorstep?

[casualobserver]

Chelmsford: LD 39; Con 31; Lab 20; Grn 6; Ind 4
Cornwall: LD 42; Con 34; Grn 9; ND 9; Ind 6
Croydon: Con 31.9; Lab 31.5; LD 22.5; Grn 13; WEP 0.6; Ind 0.5

Pembrokeshire:
ALDERMAN, Steve (Independent) 22%
BUSH, Daphne Margaret Jane (No Description) 2%
EDWARDS, David William (Independent) 16%
GRANGE, Barry Edward (Independent) 13%
HAMMOND-WILLIAMS, Shirley Margaret (Liberal Democrats) 4%
HANCOCK, Nicky (Independent) 11%
NUTTING, Jonathan Anthony Robert (No Description) 4%
STENSON, Tony (Independent) 5%
TAYLOR, Jacob David (Conservative) 23%

[Toylyyev]

Chelmsford DC, Marconi: Conservative 33, Labour 16, Liberal Democrat 41, Green 5.5, Independent 4.5.

Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Conservative 35, Green 3, Liberal Democrat 44, Independent Moorcroft 12, Harris 6.

Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Conservative 33, Labour 37, Liberal Democrat 17, Green 10.5, Women’s Equality Party 1.5, Independent 1.

Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Conservative 15. Liberal Democrat 7, Ind Alderman 23, Bush 8, Ind Edwards 9, Ind Grange 9, Ind Hancock 15, Nutting 9, Ind Stenson 5.

Shetland UA, Shetland Central: SNP 11, Adamson 9, Ind Buchan 31, Ind Laverie 18, Lyall 31. Lyall win after transfers.
Shetland UA, Lerwick South: Flaws 22, Ind Henderson 19, Ind Robinson 26, Ind Valente 18, Ind Wenger 15. Flaws win after transfers.

[andrewp]

Chelmsford, Marconi Lib Dem 42, Con 31, Lab 17, Green 5, Ind 5
Cornwall, Wadebridge West. Lib Dem 35, Con 25, Moorcroft 23, Harris 11, Green 6
Croydon, Fairfield. Lab 40, Con 33, Lib Dem 14, Green 9, WEP 3, Ind 1
Pembrokeshire. Hundleton. Ind Alderman 23, Con 15, Ind Bush 14, Ind Hancock 10, Ind Grange 9 Ind Nutting 8, Lib Dem 8, Ind Edwards 7, Ind Stinson 6

[Robert Waller]

Chelmsford, Marconi Lib Dem 50, Con 32, Lab 10, Green 5, Ind 3
Cornwall, Wadebridge West. Lib Dem 39, Con 30, Moorcroft 11, Harris 15, Green 5
Croydon, Fairfield. Lab 45, Con 34, Lib Dem 16, Green 3, WEP 1.5, Ind 0.5
Pembrokeshire. Hundleton. Ind Alderman 24, Con 23, Ind Bush 6, Ind Hancock 13, Ind Grange 8, Ind Nutting 5, Lib Dem 10, Ind Edwards 8, Ind Stenson 3

[lancastrian]

Chelmsford: LD 45 Con 29 Lab 16 Green 6 Ind 4
Cornwall: LD 39 Con 28 Moorcroft 17 Harris 11 Green 5
Croydon: Lab 44 Con 32 LD 16 Green 5 Ind 3
Pembrokeshire: Alderman 22 Con 20 Hancock 12 Bush 10 Edwards 9 LD 8 Nutting 8 Stenson 6 Grange 5

[yellowperil]

Chelmsford, Marconi: Con 35, Lab 10, LD 45, Green 6, Ind 4
Cornwall, Wadebridge W: Con 22, LD 48, Green 5, Harris 5, Moorcroft 20
Croydon, Fairfield: Con 36, Lab 40, LD 14, Green 6, WEP 2, Ind 2
Pembs, Hundleton: Con 12, LD 9, Alderman 28, Hancock 12, Edwards 6, Bush 18, Nutting 5, Grange 6, Stenson 4