Prediction Competition - November 2019

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

And if you thought the above predictions were bad, you probably aint  seen nothing yet.

Eden DC - Shap

Conservative 48.3%  Liberal Democrat 35.2%  PCF 16.5%

Fife UA - Dunfirmline Central

Conservative 33.8% SNP 29.2% Labour 17.3% Liberal Democrat 15.1% Green 3.9% Libertarian 0.7% (Conservative win)

Fife UA - Rosyth

Conservative 31.7% SNP 31.5% Labour 18.9% Liberal Democrat 11.3% Green 3.6% Independent 2.3% Libertarian 0.7% (SNP win)

Highland - Inverness Central
SNP 38% Conservative 17.1% Labour 16.3% Liberal Democrat 16.1% Independent 6.4 % Green 6.1%  (SNP win)

Neath Port Talbot UA - Rhos

Labour 38.9% Conservative 31.4% Plaid Cymru 29.7%

Powys UA - St Mary's

Conservative 37.8%  Liberal Democrat 30% Labour 17% Plaid Cymru 8.9% Independent 6.3%

Torbay UA - Goodrinton with Roselands

Conservative 40% Liberal Democrat 37.3% Green 8.4% Brexit 8.4% Labour 5.9%

Tunbridge Wells DC - Culverton

Conservative 31.9% WEq 25% Liberal Democrat 17% TWA 11.2% Labour 8.9% Green 6%

👽

[Davıd Boothroyd]

EDEN Shap: C 54, L Dem 34, PCF 12
FIFE Dunfermline Central: SNP 48, Lab 20, C 19, L Dem 10, SGP 3, Lbt 0. SNP win.
FIFE Rosyth: SNP 47, C 20, Lab 16, L Dem 11, Ind 4, SGP 2, Lbt 0. SNP win.
HIGHLAND Inverness Central: SNP 30, Ind 25, Lab 15, C 14, L Dem 10, SGP 6. Ind win.
NEATH PORT TALBOT Rhos: Lab 42, PC 35, C 23
POWYS St Mary’s: L Dem 34, C 26, Lab 17, Ind 15, PC 8
TORBAY Goodrinton with Roselands: L Dem 45, C 33, BxP 11, GP 6, Lab 5.
TUNBRIDGE WELLS Culverden: L Dem 33, C 28, TWA 17, WEP 11, Lab 7, GP 4

[yellowperil]

Eden, Shap: Con 47, LD 36, PCF 17
Fife, Dunfermline Central: Con 28, Lab 12, LD14, Green5, SNP 40, Libt  1  SNP win on transfers
Fife, Rosyth: Con 26, Lab 19, LD 9, Green 4, SNP 39, Ind 2, Libt 1  SNP win on transfers
Highland, Inverness C: Con 18, Lab 12, LD 10, Green 4, SNP 48, Ind 8, SNP win on transfers
Neath Port Talbot, Rhos: Con 27, Lab 35, PC 38
Powys, St Mary's : Con 30, Lab 11, LD 41, PC11, Ind 7
Torbay, Goodrinton & Roselands: Con 39, Lab 4, LD 41, Green 8, BxP  8
Tunbridge Wells, Culverden: Con 30, Lab 4, LD32, WEP 18, TWA 10

[Robert Waller]

EDEN Shap: C 45, L Dem 40, PCF 15
FIFE Dunfermline Central: SNP 35, Lab 23, C 24, L Dem 14, SGP 3, Lbt 1. SNP win.
FIFE Rosyth: SNP 39, C 26, Lab 20, L Dem 11, Ind 1, SGP 2, Lbt 1. SNP win.
HIGHLAND Inverness Central: SNP 39, Ind 7, Lab 16, C 19, L Dem 15, SGP 4. SNP win.
NEATH PORT TALBOT Rhos: Lab 45, PC 32, C 23
POWYS St Mary’s: L Dem 34, C 32, Lab 14, Ind 10, PC 10
TORBAY Goodrinton with Roselands: L Dem 46, C 35, BxP 10, GP 5, Lab 4.
TUNBRIDGE WELLS Culverden: L Dem 29, C 23, TWA 18, WEP 20, Lab 6, GP 4

[Sibboleth]

PCF? Why are the French Commies standing in Westmorland?

[Toylyyev]

Eden DC, Shap:
Conservative 37, Liberal Democrats 36.9, Putting Cumbria First 26.1.

Fife UA,
Dunfermline Central:
Conservative 25.5, Labour 20, Liberal Democrat 19, Green 3.6, SNP 31.5, Libertarian 0.4. SNP win on transfers.
Rosyth:
Conservative 24, Labour 12.5, Liberal Democrat 17.6, Green 3.7, SNP 40, Libertarian 0.2, Independent 2. SNP win on transfers.

Highland UA, Inverness Central:
Conservative 11, Labour 11, Liberal Democrat 12, Green 7, SNP 35, Independent 24. SNP win on transfers.

Neath Port Talbot UA, Rhos:
Conservative 25, Labour 35, Plaid Cymru 40.

Powys UA, St Mary’s:
Conservative 26, Labour 17, Liberal Democrat 17, Plaid Cymru 14.1, Independent 25.9.

Torbay UA, Goodrington with Roselands:
Conservative 37, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 40, Green 6, Brexit 12.

Tunbridge Wells DC, Culverden:
Conservative 24, Labour 5.5, Liberal Democrat 28, Green 4.5, Women’s Equality 17, Tunbridge Wells Alliance 21.

[lancastrian]

Eden: Con 41 LD 39 PCF 20
Fife, Dunfermline: SNP 39 Con 23 Lab 22 LD 12 Green 3 Libertarian 1 (SNP win)
Fife, Rosyth: SNP 46 Lab 20 Con 20 LD 9 Green 3 Libertarian 1 Ind 1 (SNP win)
Highland: SNP 36 Ind 19 Lab 18 Con 12 LD 11 Green 4 (SNP win)
Neath: Lab 41 PC 37 Con 22
Powys LD 39 Con 29 Lab 16 Ind 8 PC 8
Torbay: LD 42 Con 33 BxP 11 Lab 8 Green 6
Tunbridge Wells LD 30 Con 23 WEQ 22 TWA 15 Lab 7 Green 3

[Toylyyev]

Nov 14, 2019 1:24:39 GMT Sibboleth said:

PCF? Why are the French Commies standing in Westmorland?

The candidate stood for UKIP in the 2017 GE, which kind of rhymes with where a sizable chunck of the former Marchais vote turned to.

An unrelated bit of reporting featuring her: www.itv.com/news/border/2016-08-03/ptsd-turned-me-into-a-wreck/

[iainbhx]

Shap (Eden DC): Con 46 LDm 38 PCF 16

Dunfermline Central (Fife SUA): SNP 34 Con 29 LDm 17 Lab 16 Grn 3.7 Scot Libertarian 0.3 Con win on transfers

Rosyth (Fife SUA): SNP 44 Con 21 Lab 18 LDm 8 Ind 5.8 Grn 3 Scot Libertarian 0.2 SNP win on transfers

Inverness Central (Highland SUA): SNP 43 Con 18 Ind 14 Lab 12 LDm 8 Grn 5 SNP win on transfers

Rhos (Neath Port Talbot WUA): Lab 38 Con 32 PC 30

St Mary's (Powys WUA): LDm 42 Con 38 Lab 13 PC 4 Ind 3

Goodrington with Rosehill (Torbay UA): Con 43 LDm 39 Lab 8 Grn 6 BRX 4

Culverton (Tunbridge Wells DC): LDm 27 WEP 26.5 Con 24 TWA 14 Lab 6.5 Grn 2

[Right Leaning]

EDEN Shap: C 47, LD 38, PCF 15
FIFE Dunfermline Central: SNP 36, C 27, Lab 20, LD 12, SGP 4, Lbt 1. SNP win.
FIFE Rosyth: SNP 41, C 28, Lab 19, LD 8, SGP 2, Ind 1, Lbt 1. SNP win.
HIGHLAND Inverness Central: SNP 35, C 22, LD 18, Lab 14, Ind 7, SGP 4. SNP win.
NEATH PORT TALBOT Rhos: Lab 42, PC 35, C 23.
POWYS St Mary’s: LD 36 C 34 Lab 12 PC 10, Ind 8.
TORBAY Goodrinton with Roselands: LD 41 C 39, BxP 10, Gn 6, Lab 4.
TUNBRIDGE WELLS Culverden: LD 31, C 25, TWA 21, WEP 10, Gn 7, Lab 6.

[andrewp]

Eden, Shap Con 43, Lib Dem 42, PCF 15
Fife, Dunfermline Central. SNP 36, Lab 25, Con 24, Lib Dem 9.5, Green 5, Lib 0.5. SNP win
Fife, Rosyth. SNP 41.5, Con 21, Lab 20, Lib Dem 9, Ind 5, Green 3, Lib 0.5. SNP win
Highland. Inverness Central. SNP 40, Ind 15, Con 14, Lab 14, Lib Dem 12, Green 5. SNP win
Neath. Rhos. Lab 43, PC 37, Con 20
Powys, St Mary’s Con 33, Lib Dem 31, Lab 14, PC 12, Ind 10
Torbay, Goodrinton and Roselands. Lib Dem 40, Con 38, Lab 8, Green 7, Brexit 7
Tunbridge Wells, Culverden Lib Dem 27, Con 26, TWA 18, WEP 17, Lab 6, Green 6

[Deleted]

Eden, Shap Con 40, Lib Dem 45, PCF 15
Fife, Dunfermline Central. SNP 40, Lab 20, Con 30, Lib Dem 5, Green 3, Lib 2. SNP win
Fife, Rosyth. SNP 35, Con 30, Lab 15, Lib Dem 10, Ind 5, Green 3, Lib 2. SNP win
Highland. Inverness Central. SNP 45, Ind 20, Con 15, Lab 5, Lib Dem 10, Green 5. SNP win
Neath. Rhos. Lab 35, PC 40, Con 25
Powys, St Mary’s Con 30, Lib Dem 40, Lab 10, PC 15, Ind 5
Torbay, Goodrinton and Roselands. Lib Dem 45, Con 35, Lab 5, Green 10, Brexit 5
Tunbridge Wells, Culverden Lib Dem 30, Con 20, TWA 25, WEP 5, Lab 15, Green 5

[olympian95]

Eden: Con 44, LD 37, PCF 19

Fife -
Dunfermline - SNP 33, Con 27, Lab 20, LD 14, Greens 5, Libertarian 1

Fife - Rosyth - SNP 41, Con 21, Lab 21, LD 11, Green 3, Indy 2, Libertarian 1

Highland: SNP 36, Con 20, LD 16, Lab 14, Indy 10, Green 4

Neath: Lab 37, PC 34, Con 29

Powys: Con 39, LD 31, Lab 13, PC 10, Ind 7

Torbay: LD 44, Con 39, Brexit 11, Lab 4, Green 2

Tunbridge wells: LD 30, Con 26, WE 24, TWA 11, Lab 6, Green 3

[greenhert]

Eden DC, Shap: Conservative 45, Liberal Democrats 37, Putting Cumbria First 18.
Fife UA, Dunfermline (1st preferences): SNP 35, Conservative 25, Labour 20, Liberal Democrats 15, Green 4, Libertarian 1.
Fife UA, Rosyth (1st preferences): SNP 42.5, Conservative 22, Labour 19, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 4, Independent (McIntyre) 2, Libertarian 0.5.
Highland UA, Inverness Central: SNP 38, Conservative 18, Liberal Democrats 18, Labour 13, Independent (Paxton) 9, Green 4.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Rhos: Plaid Cymru 38, Labour 35, Conservative 27.
Powys UA, St Mary's: Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 32, Plaid Cymru 11, Labour 10, Independent (Phillips) 9.
Torbay UA, Goodrinton with Roselands: Liberal Democrats 43, Conservative 41, Brexit Party 8, Labour 5, Green 3.
Tunbridge Wells DC, Culverden: Liberal Democrats 34, Women's Equality Party 23, Conservative 23, Tunbridge Wells Alliance 12, Labour 5, Green 3.

[andrewp]

The 5 English and Welsh by elections today are all pretty tough to call. On paper they all could be close. Could be a few wrong winner faults!

[Toylyyev]

Sum of predictions for Conservative candidates since the snap versus the sum of their actual result shares at the top. Error totals for the same on the right.

Thursday#/Month  5/10  1/11   Σ   | 2/11     Σ   |    Error Points
Σ Con. result % 109.6  86.8 196.4 |   ?      ?   | 5/10 1/11 2/11  Σ
----------ward#---3-----3-----6-↓-|---8-----14---|--------------------
  Right Leaning 109   110   219   | 245    464   |  9.6 23.2   ?  32.8
      alien8ted 104.6 107.5 212.1 | 272    484.1 | 13.9 20.7   ?  34.6
    priceofdawn 107   105   212   | 225    437   | 12.2 18.2   ?  30.4
       Toylyyev 108.1 101   209.1 | 209.5  418.6 | 15.3 14.2   ?  29.5
        iainbhx  98   102   200   | 251    451   | 11.5 24.2   ?  35.7
      Tony Otim 105.1  91.4 196.5 | 241.8  438.3 | 12.8 12.2   ?  25
   robertwaller  98    96   194   | 227    421   | 13.1 18.2   ?  31.3
    yellowperil  98    93   191   | 245    436   | 11.5 31.2   ?  42.7
      johnloony  94    94.1 188.1 | 239    427.1 | 23.1 16.3   ?  39.4
 greenrobinhood 100    87   187   | 239    426   | 11.1 19.2   ?  30.3
David Boothroyd  92    89   181   | 217    398   | 17.5 15.2   ?  32.7
        andrewp  92    89   181   | 219    400   | 17.5 21.2   ?  38.7
----------------------------------|-----------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 100.5  97.1 197.6 | 235.9  433.4 |
----------------------------------|-----------------------------------
 casualobserver n/a    96.9  96.6↓| n/a          | n/a  11.1 n/a
_____________________________86.8̣_|              |
    lancastrian n/a    89    89↓  | 203    292↓  | n/a  15.2   ?
_____________________________86.8_|__________?___|
     olympian95  70↓  104   174↓  | 245    419↓  | 11.3
_________________81.3_______168.1_|__________?___|→16.9_24.2___?__41.1
  yorkshireluke 102   n/a   102↓  | n/a          | 19.2 n/a  n/a
____________________________109.6_|              |
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 100.3  97   197.3 | 234.2  431.5 |

Preemptive apologies for any remaining glitches.


Edit: (15/11) Table with added results for the 2/11 week below. The average of the 14 calls for the week overestimated the Conservatives by 1.4%. (29.3 vs 27.9) Of note that these ballots were skewed towards Scottish and Welsh seats and that the turnout was probably around a quarter of the electorate.

Thursday#/Month  5/10  1/11  2/11   Σ   |     Error Points
Σ Con. result % 109.5  86.8 223.5 419.9 | 5/10 1/11 2/11   Σ
----------ward#---3-----3-----8----14--↓|---------------------
      alien8ted 104.6 107.5 272   484.1 | 13.9 20.7 67.2 101.8
  Right Leaning 109   110   245   464   |  9.6 23.2 44.9  77.7
        iainbhx  98   102   251   451   | 11.5 24.2 48.9  84.6
      Tony Otim 105.1  91.4 241.8 438.3 | 12.8 12.2 52.8  77.8
    priceofdawn 107   105   225   437   | 12.2 18.2 40.8  71.2
    yellowperil  98    93   245   436   | 11.5 31.2 42.2  84.9
      johnloony  94    94.1 239   427.1 | 23.1 16.3 50.1  89.5
 greenrobinhood 100    87   239   426   | 11.1 19.2 40.9  71.2
   robertwaller  98    96   227   421   | 13.1 18.2 40.5  71.8
       Toylyyev 108.1 101   209.5 418.6 | 15.3 14.2 23    52.5
        andrewp  92    89   219   400   | 17.5 21.2 38.1  76.8
David Boothroyd  92    89   217   398   | 17.5 15.2 53    85.7
--------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 100.5  97.1 235.9 433.4 | 14.1 19.5 45.2  78.8
--------------------------------------------------------------
 casualobserver n/a    96.9 n/a    96.6↓| n/a  11.1  n/a
___________________________________86.8̣_|              
    lancastrian n/a    89   203         | n/a  15.2 39.9
_______________→103_______________395___|→11.9____________67__
     olympian95  70   104   245         | 11.3 24.2  49
________________→94.4_____________443.4_|→16.9____________90.1
  yorkshireluke 102   n/a   n/a   102↓  | 19.2 n/a  n/a
__________________________________109.5_|           
--------------------------------------------------------------
 µ(predictions) 100.8  97   234.2 432   |

[olympian95]

Forgot to add my eventual winner for the Scottish seats.

SNP for all 3

[yellowperil]

Nov 14, 2019 16:48:36 GMT andrewp said:

The 5 English and Welsh by elections today are all pretty tough to call. On paper they all could be close. Could be a few wrong winner faults!

9 of those already and that's just Rhos!

[andrewp]

Nov 14, 2019 23:17:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Nov 14, 2019 16:48:36 GMT andrewp said:

The 5 English and Welsh by elections today are all pretty tough to call. On paper they all could be close. Could be a few wrong winner faults!

9 of those already and that's just Rhos!

Yes, this could be a high scoring night. It was a pretty tough bunch!  Most of us think there could be some Lib Dem gains coming

[yellowperil]

Nov 14, 2019 23:18:47 GMT andrewp said:

Nov 14, 2019 23:17:17 GMT yellowperil said:

9 of those already and that's just Rhos!

Yes, this could be a high scoring night. It was a pretty tough bunch!  Most of us think there could be some Lib Dem gains coming

I'm hoping so or I will be adding to the wrong winner mountain