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Post by greenhert on Nov 7, 2019 0:23:21 GMT
Chelmsford BC, Marconi: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 30, Labour 14, Green 5, Independent (Chambers) 3.
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge: Liberal Democrats 45, Conservative 25, Independent (Moorcroft) 19, Green 6, No Description (Harris) 5.
Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Labour 45, Conservative 32, Liberal Democrats 12, Green 7, WEP 2, Independent (Samuel) 2.
Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Independent (Alderman) 30, No Description (Bush) 19, Conservative 11, Independent (Nutting) 10, Liberal Democrats 8, Independent (Edwards) 7, Independent (Stenson) 6, Independent (Hancock) 5, Independent (Grange) 4.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 7, 2019 0:39:42 GMT
CHELMSFORD Marconi: L Dem 49, C 29, Lab 14, GP 5, Ind 3
CORNWALL Wadebridge West: L Dem 38, C 28, Ind Harris 19, Ind Moorcroft 11, GP 4
CROYDON Fairfield: Lab 42, C 32, L Dem 14, WEP 6, GP 5, Ind 1
PEMBROKESHIRE Hundleton: Ind Alderman 39, Ind Grange 21, Ind Bush 17, Ind Edwards 7, L Dem 6, C 5, Ind Hancock 2, Ind Stenson 2, Ind Nutting 1
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Post by Right Leaning on Nov 7, 2019 7:50:30 GMT
Chelmsford BC, Marconi: LD 42, C 40, Lab 12, Gn 5, Ind 1.
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge: LD 38, C 36, Ind (Moorcroft) 15, Gn 6, ND (Harris) 5.
Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Lab 47, C 34, LD 12, Gn 5, WEP 1, Independent (Samuel) 1.
Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Ind (Alderman) 30, Con 22, ND (Bush) 20, Ind (Nutting) 8, LD 8, Ind (Edwards) 4, Ind (Stenson) 3, Ind (Hancock) 3, Ind (Grange) 2.
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Post by olympian95 on Nov 7, 2019 8:50:47 GMT
Chelmsford: LD 42, Con 37, Lab 15, green 4, ind 2
Cornwall: LD 38, Con 31, Ind Moorcroft 18, Green 8, Harris 5
Croydon: Lab 41, Con 36, LD 10, Green 8, WEP 3, Ind 2
Pembrokeshire: Alderman 33, Hancock 14, Grange 12, Bush 11, Edwards 10, Nutting 8, Lib Dem 5, Con 4, Stenson 3
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 7, 2019 22:18:37 GMT
15 entries this week, being joined by both casualobserver and lancastrian. johnloony gets 5.2 votes for getting to 105 and 99.8 in Chelmsford and Croydon respectively and priceofdawn gets 5 for only getting to 95 in Croydon. Marconi, Chelmsford: 14 Lib Dem hold, with priceofdawn Conservative gain. Wadebridge West, Cornwall: 100% Lib Dem hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (Right Leaning) to 26% (yellowperil). Fairfield, Croydon: 13 Labour hold, with alien8ted and casualobserver Conservative gain. Hundleton, Pembrokeshire: 13 Independent (Alderman) win, with casualobserver and johnloony Conservative gain. 3 entries for Shetland. For johnloony's entry there is no winner ultimately specified and as all the Independents in both are drawing for first I'm not able to get from that. Aside from that all fine. Lerwick South, Shetland Islands: alien8ted Ind (Valente) overall and first round win, Toyylyev Ind (Robinson) first round win then ND (Flaws) overall win. Shetland Central, Shetland Islands: alien8ted Ind (Buchan) overall and first round win, Toyylyev Ind (Buchan) and ND (Lyall) drawing for first round win then ND (Lyall) winning overall. All results (Shetland in a separate sheet) available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nGi5GT3sOyzWQkzXi0iVReo0cHjBoUJGLSE4dBTgiOw/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 7, 2019 23:58:16 GMT
Well the scores in Cornwall are going to be painful...
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 7:50:26 GMT
Well the scores in Cornwall are going to be painful... Mines worse than in Pembrokeshire 😢 Bad week so far, but at least my Shetland scores will be better than most people's predictions 🥴 👽 Yes you folk who went for the Shetland predictions were very brave. Very much in the Sir Humphrey sense. For the rest of us, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire elections were masochism enough for one week. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 8, 2019 10:28:35 GMT
Mines worse than in Pembrokeshire 😢 Bad week so far, but at least my Shetland scores will be better than most people's predictions 🥴 👽 Yes you folk who went for the Shetland predictions were very brave. Very much in the Sir Humphrey sense. For the rest of us, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire elections were masochism enough for one week. I had already done most of the research before the OP was posted... Both contests were actually quite agreeable to look at with plenty good candidates and info. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 8, 2019 12:22:49 GMT
Yes you folk who went for the Shetland predictions were very brave. Very much in the Sir Humphrey sense. For the rest of us, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire elections were masochism enough for one week. I had already done most of the research before the OP was posted... Both contests were actually quite agreeable to look at with plenty good candidates and info. Getting both the first preference and overall winner in both contests was genuinely impressive, Scottish by-elections are difficult enough without them all being independents so kudos on taking the bragging rights there. Also congrats to lancastrian for the week. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 8, 2019 12:41:43 GMT
I had already done most of the research before the OP was posted... Both contests were actually quite agreeable to look at with plenty good candidates and info. Getting both the first preference and overall winner in both contests was genuinely impressive, Scottish by-elections are difficult enough without them all being independents so kudos on taking the bragging rights there. Also congrats to lancastrian for the week. All the candidates providing a stump presentation on the Shetland News site did help. www.shetnews.co.uk/category/features/But now i'm wondering whether Johan Adamson did obtain 116 or 77 votes in Shetland Central? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 8, 2019 12:48:14 GMT
Getting both the first preference and overall winner in both contests was genuinely impressive, Scottish by-elections are difficult enough without them all being independents so kudos on taking the bragging rights there. Also congrats to lancastrian for the week. All the candidates providing a stump presentation on the Shetland News site did help. www.shetnews.co.uk/category/features/But now i'm wondering whether Johan Adamson did obtain 116 or 77 votes in Shetland Central? Have now amended! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 8, 2019 13:11:31 GMT
Very well done to Lancastrian for the week.
Nice to have you back!
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 13:49:06 GMT
Congratulations to Lancastrian for winning straight off after quite a gap!
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 13:52:11 GMT
Yes you folk who went for the Shetland predictions were very brave. Very much in the Sir Humphrey sense. For the rest of us, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire elections were masochism enough for one week. I had already done most of the research before the OP was posted... Both contests were actually quite agreeable to look at with plenty good candidates and info. Do you mean the candidates were agreeable to look at? |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 8, 2019 14:05:26 GMT
15 entries this week, being joined by both casualobserver and lancastrian. johnloony gets 5.2 votes for getting to 105 and 99.8 in Chelmsford and Croydon respectively and priceofdawn gets 5 for only getting to 95 in Croydon. Oops! Bah Humbug. I made my prediction for Croydon in terms of numbers, not percentages. All of the numbers rounded down (not up) to the nearest multiple of 0.1%, and I must have forgotten to check what it added up to. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2019 18:33:16 GMT
I obviously don't spend enough time doing in detail research for this competition. 👽 It quite often doesn't help at all. Some do much better by copying whoever went before  |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 8, 2019 19:01:46 GMT
I obviously don't spend enough time doing in detail research for this competition. 👽 I find it to be a long learning curve to grow truthful models of the political realities of all the council wards in the UK, which makes finding the right measure of the available info the more uncertain part. My geography and politics inclination helps with having a natural feel for some situations, but isn't sufficiently comprehensive to keep me from making mistakes such as the one that the people in Wadebridge of all places would worry more about the GE than the candidates. I ended up realizing that the winner was on to something, but only did hike by two points, also because of painful experiences with overshooting on earlier similar feels. Another caveat is that i have a non-negligible minority of instances where the abstract first impression ends up being the best take and looking up the bits only makes it worse. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 8, 2019 21:39:50 GMT
I obviously don't spend enough time doing in detail research for this competition. 👽 It quite often doesn't help at all. Some do much better by copying whoever went before Some weeks I just did the average of what other people had predicted, but I realised that it actually takes quite a lot of time and effort to do that. It is easier to make educated guesses. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 11, 2019 15:09:52 GMT
EDEN DC; Shap
Con 48 LD 36 PCF 16
FIFE UA; Dunfermline Central
SNP 39 Con 27 Lab 20 LD 8 Green 4 Libn 2 (SNP win)
FIFE UA; Rosyth
SNP 50 Con 25 Lab 13 LD 8 Ind 2 Grn 2 Libn 0
HIGHLAND UA; Inverness Central
SNP 37 Ind 24 Con 18 Lab 10 Grn 6 LD 5 (SNP win)
NEATH PORT TALBOT UA; Rhos
Lab 36 PC 33 Con 31
POWYS UA; St Mary’s
LD 41 Con 33 Lab 15 Ind 7 PC 5
TORBAY UA; Goodrinton with Roselands
LD 40 Con 35 Grn 12 Brx 8 Lab 5
TUNBRIDGE WELLS DC; Culverden
LD 34 Con 22 TWA 17 WEqP 16 Lab 6 Grn 5
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 12, 2019 21:29:45 GMT
Well, as I'm not going to win anyway, here goes nothing: Eden: Con 55.7; LD 32.3; PCF 12.0 Fife Dunfermline Central: SNP 33.1; Con 27.1; Lab 22.1; LD 12.5; Grn 4.1; Libt 1.1 (SNP win) Fife, Rosyth: SNP 41.4; Con 23.2; Lab 17.3; LD 11.2; Grn 4.0; Ind 1.8; Libt 1.1 (SNP win) Highland: SNP 40.9; Con 16.9; Lab 15.6; Ind 10.5; LD 8.9; Grn 7.2 (SNP win) Neath Port Talbot: PC 36.8; Lab 35.3; Con 27.9 Powys: LD 32.7; Con 31.8; Ind 13.4; PC 12.1; Lab 10.0 Torbay: Con 33.3; LD 31.7; Brx 19.1; Grn 10.1; Lab 5.8 Tunbridge Wells: WEQ 27.0; Con 25.9; LD 23.1; TWA 10.7; Lab 7.3; Grn 6.0   |
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