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Post by greenchristian on Nov 22, 2019 10:06:52 GMT
Calm down, old chap,you'll do yourself an injury. And you had better stay well away then from Chi  . One of my favourite places, btw. Actually the fact that the Lib Dems did much better in Bourne than they did in Loxwood is a clue to what this was really all about- the fact that the Tories had lost a super-safe ward last time basically through indolence and overconfidence stung them into running a proper campaign this time. Shame for the LDs, but it is one of their functions they do very well and is generally good for the body politic- they can go into a ward one party or another takes for granted and really shake them up. Sometimes works a bit like a vaccine, which is unfortunate from our point of view. If the party stops lying I will stop drawing attention to it. Odd, I didn't see you complaining about the Conservative Party pretending its twitter account was a fact-checking service, or that said party has been releasing doctored videos to deliberately misrepresent the views of other parties. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 22, 2019 10:09:04 GMT
Whilst we await the full numbers, it’s looking like a pretty good week for the Tories Yes, although I think the Aberdeen result will be slightly disappointing for them. More will be interesting when it comes in, although strong independent vote could make that difficult to interpret. I think that in terms of the ward, the recent negative news for us in Aberdeen and candidature issues, this was a good result. Increased vote share and established second position, plus enough inherent 'worry' to tease out our best vote next month to save the seat. The Labour further collapse must be seen as a disaster and to be the major cause of the SNP advance? However, such further general Labour collapse into the SNP make the seat hold problematic for us but far from a lost cause. Overall the night must beseen as very positive for us and a good omen for next month. |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 22, 2019 10:17:04 GMT
* Saucy* |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 22, 2019 10:32:36 GMT
I haven’t looked into it but I’m pretty sure this is one of our weaker wards in Aberdeen South? It’s good to see our vote is holding up despite Ross Thompson’s “incident” though. Yes, it was more about the size of the swing against which is probably a bit higher than you'd hope for. There was no swing against us but a very favourable one to us. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 22, 2019 10:34:50 GMT
Yes, it was more about the size of the swing against which is probably a bit higher than you'd hope for. There was no swing against us but a very favourable one to us. 🤣🤣🤣 That one never gets old. A favourable swing that would almost be enough to lose you the parliamentary seat, that is... |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 22, 2019 11:16:49 GMT
Moray turnout is 33.9%
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 22, 2019 11:29:07 GMT
Ye Highlands and ye Lowlands,
Oh, where hae ye been?
They hae slain the Earl o' Moray,
And Lady Mondegreen.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2019 11:31:01 GMT
Whilst we await the full numbers, it’s looking like a pretty good week for the Tories It would have been a major setback for them *not* to have won in Cardiff given the previous result there, though the Chichester result was undeniably good - and perhaps suggests their "traditional" vote rallying to them with a GE due. As already said, there was a decent swing against them to the Nats in Aberdeen. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Nov 22, 2019 11:44:39 GMT
Ye Highlands and ye Lowlands, Oh, where hae ye been? They hae slain the Earl o' Moray, And Lady Mondegreen. On a more modern note, I had a lovely bowl of skink in the Seafield Arms not long ago. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 22, 2019 11:48:56 GMT
Yes, it was more about the size of the swing against which is probably a bit higher than you'd hope for. There was no swing against us but a very favourable one to us. This goes back to that boring old argument about the definition of swing, which I thought we had done to death. It is particularly fraught when we are looking at a Scottish by-election with five parties with a significant vote (it's 5 with over 8% each) . It is true if you look at Tory/Lab classic swing it's something like 7.4% in your favour, and presumably that's what you are referring to as "very favourable". How meaningful that is when going from STV to effectively AV in a by-election with multiple candidates is up for debate, and it hides any number of mini-swings e.g. Con>SNP 4.9% Con> LD 0.6% Con>SGP 0.6% I suppose one might add UKIP> Con 0.8%. It would be foolish at very least to ignore the SNP as the party in posession. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2019 11:51:14 GMT
There was no swing against us but a very favourable one to us. This goes back to that boring old argument about the definition of swing, which I thought we had done to death. It is particularly fraught when we are looking at a Scottish by-election with five parties with a significant vote (it's 5 with over 8% each) . It is true if you look at Tory/Lab classic swing it's something like 7.4% in your favour, and presumably that's what you are referring to as "very favourable". How meaningful that is when going from STV to effectively AV in a by-election with multiple candidates is up for debate, and it hides any number of mini-swings e.g. Con>SNP 4.9% Con> LD 0.6% Con>SGP 0.6% I suppose one might add UKIP> Con 0.8%. It would be foolish at very least to ignore the SDP as the party in posession. Nice typo  |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 22, 2019 11:55:03 GMT
This goes back to that boring old argument about the definition of swing, which I thought we had done to death. It is particularly fraught when we are looking at a Scottish by-election with five parties with a significant vote (it's 5 with over 8% each) . It is true if you look at Tory/Lab classic swing it's something like 7.4% in your favour, and presumably that's what you are referring to as "very favourable". How meaningful that is when going from STV to effectively AV in a by-election with multiple candidates is up for debate, and it hides any number of mini-swings e.g. Con>SNP 4.9% Con> LD 0.6% Con>SGP 0.6% I suppose one might add UKIP> Con 0.8%. It would be foolish at very least to ignore the SDP as the party in posession. Nice typo Oops! Not the first time I've done that, must be Freudian! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2019 11:55:30 GMT
There was no swing against us but a very favourable one to us. This goes back to that boring old argument about the definition of swing, which I thought we had done to death. It is particularly fraught when we are looking at a Scottish by-election with five parties with a significant vote (it's 5 with over 8% each) . It is true if you look at Tory/Lab classic swing it's something like 7.4% in your favour, and presumably that's what you are referring to as "very favourable". How meaningful that is when going from STV to effectively AV in a by-election with multiple candidates is up for debate, and it hides any number of mini-swings e.g. Con>SNP 4.9% Con> LD 0.6% Con>SGP 0.6% I suppose one might add UKIP> Con 0.8%. It would be foolish at very least to ignore the SDP as the party in posession. Rather than messing about with maths, it can be simplified - SNP - Good result CON - Okay result LDEM - Crap result LAB - Really crap result. You're welcome. |
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Post by phil156 on Nov 22, 2019 11:59:27 GMT
SNP HOLD ABERDEEN on 6th stage
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 22, 2019 12:02:31 GMT
This goes back to that boring old argument about the definition of swing, which I thought we had done to death. It is particularly fraught when we are looking at a Scottish by-election with five parties with a significant vote (it's 5 with over 8% each) . It is true if you look at Tory/Lab classic swing it's something like 7.4% in your favour, and presumably that's what you are referring to as "very favourable". How meaningful that is when going from STV to effectively AV in a by-election with multiple candidates is up for debate, and it hides any number of mini-swings e.g. Con>SNP 4.9% Con> LD 0.6% Con>SGP 0.6% I suppose one might add UKIP> Con 0.8%. It would be foolish at very least to ignore the SDP as the party in posession. Rather than messing about with maths, it can be simplified - SNP - Good result CON - Okay result LDEM - Crap result LAB - Really crap result. You're welcome. That seems fair to me, maybe slightly harsh on Lib Dems - I'd say indifferent rather than crap, they did get a fair vote share increase. |
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Post by afleitch on Nov 22, 2019 12:16:39 GMT
No Greens standing in the constituency; a solid chunk of them second preferenced the SNP.
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 22, 2019 12:28:13 GMT
Ballot Box Scotland reporting that Conservatives are ahead on first preferences in Keith and Cullen.
Council account is reporting the stage-by-stage process but only giving candidate names being excluded.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 22, 2019 12:31:47 GMT
Chichester, Loxwood
Con 1005
Lib Dem 486
Green 126
Patria 9
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Nov 22, 2019 12:41:06 GMT
Chichester, Loxwood Con 1005 Lib Dem 486 Green 126 Patria 9 Reversion to the mean. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 22, 2019 12:41:15 GMT
Conservatives win in Keith and Cullen.
First preferences
Conservatives - 1142 (41.5%)
SNP - 1047 (38.1%)
Ind - 349 (12.7%)
LD - 212 (7.7%)
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. One of my favourite places, btw.
