Canadian Federal Election 2019

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 22, 2019 8:20:25 GMT Andrew_S said:

Looks like the Canadian opinion polls underestimated the Conservatives by around 3 percentage points, which is right on the edge of their margin of error.

But the CBC seat forecaster overestimated them.

[finsobruce]

Oct 22, 2019 8:31:40 GMT mboy said:

Probably the best possible result - the charlatan humbled, but liberals will continue to govern the country. Hopefully the NDP will force Trudeau to implement his previous PR policy now.

Someone remind them not to settle for a referendum on AV....

(sorry, couldn't resist).

[The Bishop]

Oct 22, 2019 5:57:54 GMT Andrew_S said:

Ruth Ellen Brosseau has lost her seat in Berthier—Maskinongé. She was the NDP candidate who won in 2011 despite spending most of the campaign elsewhere because she didn't expect to win.

montrealgazette.com/news/national/election-2019/ndp-star-candidate-ruth-ellen-brosseau-fights-to-hang-on-to-party-toehold

Sad news, and a loss to the good looking politicians thread

[finsobruce]

Oct 22, 2019 9:54:51 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 22, 2019 5:57:54 GMT Andrew_S said:

Ruth Ellen Brosseau has lost her seat in Berthier—Maskinongé. She was the NDP candidate who won in 2011 despite spending most of the campaign elsewhere because she didn't expect to win.

montrealgazette.com/news/national/election-2019/ndp-star-candidate-ruth-ellen-brosseau-fights-to-hang-on-to-party-toehold

Sad news, and a loss to the good looking politicians thread

From paper candidate to 'star candidate' - one of the more remarkable political careers of recent times.

[mboy]

Yes that is a shame. Bizarre to see her described as “unilingual” in the first line - I presume that’s a bit of French-nationalist dog-whistling.

[The Bishop]

This election is not unlike ours in 2005, but in even more exaggerated form. Nobody really won, save for the Bloc who fought a depressingly demagogic campaign.

[jamie]

Oct 22, 2019 7:07:13 GMT gasman2019 said:

Canada have voted to keep a privileged, racist and misogynistic dick in charge.
If Trump had done the black facing and the alleged scandals involving women, the left would have gone hysterical and be asking for blood.
However due to Justin claiming to be a feminist and other identity politics crap like dressing up in an traditional Indian attire, it was ok to vote for him.
The left constantly talk about the need to have less privileged white males in power. Well Justin Trudeau is as privileged as one can be.

Trudeau took a hit for the blackface, but Scheer was just as unpopular while the NDP 'surge' was mostly just partially recovering ground lost over the last 4 years. I also don't see many people abandoning a Liberal Party for a Conservative Party because they thought the Libs were not politically correct enough. 

[maxque]

Oct 22, 2019 10:00:51 GMT mboy said:

Yes that is a shame. Bizarre to see her described as “unilingual” in the first line - I presume that’s a bit of French-nationalist dog-whistling.

She was unilingual. She was a bar worker in Ottawa and ran as a paper candidate in rural Quebec. She got an intense 1 month of learning French before the party allowed to appear in her constituency.

[maxque]

Oct 22, 2019 7:07:13 GMT gasman2019 said:

Canada have voted to keep a privileged, racist and misogynistic dick in charge.
If Trump had done the black facing and the alleged scandals involving women, the left would have gone hysterical and be asking for blood.
However due to Justin claiming to be a feminist and other identity politics crap like dressing up in an traditional Indian attire, it was ok to vote for him.
The left constantly talk about the need to have less privileged white males in power. Well Justin Trudeau is as privileged as one can be.

Well, Justin Trudeau is a centrist, not on the left.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 22, 2019 11:04:46 GMT jamie said:

Oct 22, 2019 7:07:13 GMT gasman2019 said:

Canada have voted to keep a privileged, racist and misogynistic dick in charge.
If Trump had done the black facing and the alleged scandals involving women, the left would have gone hysterical and be asking for blood.
However due to Justin claiming to be a feminist and other identity politics crap like dressing up in an traditional Indian attire, it was ok to vote for him.
The left constantly talk about the need to have less privileged white males in power. Well Justin Trudeau is as privileged as one can be.

Trudeau took a hit for the blackface, but Scheer was just as unpopular while the NDP 'surge' was mostly just getting recovering ground lost over the last 4 years. I also don't see many people abandoning a Liberal Party for a Conservative Party because they thought the Libs were not politically correct enough. 

True, but it's not so much the lack of police correctness, but the perceived hypocrisy that may have hurt a bit.

[John Chanin]

Oct 22, 2019 12:21:18 GMT maxque said:

Oct 22, 2019 10:00:51 GMT mboy said:

Yes that is a shame. Bizarre to see her described as “unilingual” in the first line - I presume that’s a bit of French-nationalist dog-whistling.

She was unilingual. She was a bar worker in Ottawa and ran as a paper candidate in rural Quebec. She got an intense 1 month of learning French before the party allowed to appear in her constituency.

This is really really weird.  

[Khunanup]

Oct 22, 2019 12:37:36 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 22, 2019 12:21:18 GMT maxque said:

She was unilingual. She was a bar worker in Ottawa and ran as a paper candidate in rural Quebec. She got an intense 1 month of learning French before the party allowed to appear in her constituency.

This is really really weird.  

Remember that the NDP were virtually non-existent in Quebec outside small parts of Montreal so this was standard practice for them. Layton then managed to capture the perfect storm of the Bloc starting to look completely irrelevant with endless infighting and him being a Quebec native (with also having the toehold of Mulcair in Outremont) to appeal to a huge swathe of the Quebec electorate, from out & out separatists to hard line federalists and in all parts of Quebec to make it so loads of truly paper candidates were swept in in 2011.

One of the really bizarre things was that there was virtually no political riding infrastructure for a lot of those MPs when they entered parliament so had to build it up by scratch themselves.

[pepperminttea]

Seat flips:

Con gain from Lib (21):
-West Nova (NS)
-Fundy Royal (NB)
-New Brunswick Southwest (NB)
-Tobique-Mactaquac (NB)
-Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (QC)
-Hastings-Lennox and Addington (ON)
-Northumberland-Peterborough South (ON)
-Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill (ON)*
-Kenora (ON)
-Kildonan-St. Paul (MB)
-Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley (MB)*
-Regina-Wascana (SK)
-Calgary Centre (AB)
-Calgary Skyview (AB)
-Edmonton Mill Woods (AB)
-Edmonton Centre (AB)
-Kelowna-Lake Country (BC)
-Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon (BC)
-Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge (BC)
-Cloverdale-Langley City (BC)
-Steveston-Richmond East (BC)

Bloc gain from NDP (11):
-Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques*
-Jonquière
-Berthier-Maskinongé
-Trois-Rivières
-Drummond
-Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
-Beloeil-Chambly
-Longueuil-Saint-Hubert
-Salaberry-Suroît
-Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou*
-Abitibi-Témiscamingue

Bloc gain from Lib (8):
-Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia*
-Laurentides-Labelle
-Shefford
-Saint-Jean
-La Prarie
-Montarville
-Thérèse-De Blainville
-Rivière-des-Mille-Îles

Con gain from NDP (6):
-Essex (ON)
-Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (SK)*
-Saskatoon West (SK)
-Regina-Lewvan (SK)
-Kootenay-Columbia (BC)
-Port Moody-Coquitlam (BC)

Lib gain from NDP (5):
-Sherbrooke (QC)
-Hochelaga (QC)
-Laurier-Sainte-Marie (QC)
-Outremont (QC)
-Windsor-Tecumseh (ON)

Bloc gain from Con (3):
-Lac-Saint-Jean
-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix *
-Beauport—Limoilou

NDP gain from Lib (3):
-St. John's East (NL)
-Winnipeg Centre (MB)
-Nunavut (NU)

Lib gain from Con (2):
-Milton (ON)
-Kitchener-Conestoga (ON-lead)

Green gain from Lib (1):
-Fredricton (NB)

Green gain from NDP (1):
-Nanaimo-Ladysmith (BC)

Ind gain from Lib (1):
-Vancouver Granville (BC)

(*Seriously some of these names could do with being shortened)

[John Chanin]

Can anyone explain to someone ignorant like me of Canadian politics, why the NDP are so strong in the rural far north?

[timrollpickering]

Oct 22, 2019 13:52:07 GMT pepperminttea said:

Seat flips:

Lib gain from NDP (5):
-Outremont (QC)

Confirming a by-election loss. This also means that it is almost impossible to find a seat of a former NDP leader still in the party's hands - you have to go back to Tommy Douglas's two seats, Burnaby-Coquitlam then Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands, and trace their strands through multiple redistributions to find one - with Jagmeet Singh himself representing a partial successor.

[redvers]

Oct 22, 2019 14:08:27 GMT John Chanin said:

Can anyone explain to someone ignorant like me of Canadian politics, why the NDP are so strong in the rural far north?

High number of Aboriginal Canadians, who are traditionally inclined to the NDP.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 22, 2019 14:08:27 GMT John Chanin said:

Can anyone explain to someone ignorant like me of Canadian politics, why the NDP are so strong in the rural far north?

Mining isn't it?

[Sibboleth]

Oct 22, 2019 14:08:27 GMT John Chanin said:

Can anyone explain to someone ignorant like me of Canadian politics, why the NDP are so strong in the rural far north?

Well, they aren't rural in the conventional sense of the term. Except for Newfoundland and PEI rural English Canada has never voted more firmly for the Conservative party of the day than presently. What they are is largely empty of people except for native populations, mining/resources settlements, and (in the territories) government towns.

[Pete Whitehead]

It's like the pattern in much of Scandinavia in some respects

[Sibboleth]

Oct 22, 2019 14:30:20 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It's like the pattern in much of Scandinavia in some respects

Right: once you move beyond the point at which you can sensibly farm, then everything changes very quickly. Actually if you looked at polling division results rather than division winners, Australia is similar.