Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 2:06:14 GMT
Scores so far Liberals: 121 seats, 39% 2015: 39.5% Conservatives: 88 seats, 31%/ 32% NDP: 9 seats, 15%/ 20% Greens: 2 seat 10%/3% Bloc Party: 18 seats, 2.5%/4.5% The con vote share will go up, same for the Bloc party. link(The tv is a bit slow with results) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 2:10:17 GMT
The Liberals have almost certainly lost their overall majority, although you wouldn't guess it from the TV coverage. If anything they're giving the impression the Liberals are doing quite well. you should watch the global news stream I'm watching that as well. They've just declared it'll be a minority government, whereas CBC are saying the Liberals could still win a majority. |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 2:16:03 GMT
you should watch the global news stream I'm watching that as well. They've just declared it'll be a minority government, whereas CBC are saying the Liberals could still win a majority. Well thats technically true.... But I did bang my head on my keyboard when that Peter Snow wannabe gave his parliament seat talk. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 2:21:12 GMT
The TV stations embarrass themselves by putting up constituency results with figures like Lib 20, Con 15, NDP 10 after 1 out of 200 polling places counted and actually spending time commenting on them.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 2:25:29 GMT
The TV stations embarrass themselves by putting up constituency results with figures like Lib 20, Con 15, NDP 10 after 1 out of 200 polling places counted and actually spending time commenting on them. I love that stuff. I find it fascinating seeing how a seat can change and develop over the night - but yeah it is silly when they try and analyze what a tiny vote sample means - i share Johnloonys views on this. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 22, 2019 2:30:02 GMT
The TV stations embarrass themselves by putting up constituency results with figures like Lib 20, Con 15, NDP 10 after 1 out of 200 polling places counted and actually spending time commenting on them. It would be fun if they bothered to tell us which polling district it is (do the CBC people even know?). It makes me imagine if we could know the subtotals for each street, each tower block etc. Not just polling districts of 2,000 electors each, but tiny bundle-delivery-areas with 100 or 200 people each. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 2:35:50 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 2:38:41 GMT
I'm not at all convinced by all the predictions the TV stations are making at the moment.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 2:46:14 GMT
I'm not at all convinced by all the predictions the TV stations are making at the moment. what other possibility is left? conservatives aren't close. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 2:48:22 GMT
I'm not at all convinced by all the predictions the TV stations are making at the moment. what other possibility is left? conservatives aren't close. Only 14 seats would have to switch from Liberal to Conservative for both parties to have the same number of seats, and the Conservatives look like they're going to win the popular vote quite easily. They're only 40,000 votes behind at present with 80% still to be counted. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 3:02:43 GMT
Conservatives now ahead in the popular vote.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2019 3:03:43 GMT
Incredible: The EC's site has 30% counted in Ontario and the Tories are only 4.5% behind - but with the seats it's 76:37!
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 3:06:16 GMT
what other possibility is left? conservatives aren't close. Only 14 seats would have to switch from Liberal to Conservative for both parties to have the same number of seats, and the Conservatives look like they're going to win the popular vote quite easily. They're only 40,000 votes behind at present with 80% still to be counted. I hear what you say, but if conservatives are struggling in Milton i don't see that scenario happening. They may win the pv due to their strength in the west, but they need gains elsewhere to even get close. At the moment I see a three way coalition between the Libs/greens/ndp as a worst case scenario for Trudeau. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 22, 2019 3:39:43 GMT
The CBC election coverage is so biased it's amazing. Yeah that anchor woman is extremely biased, don't they have any rules about that? I love how she claimed that northern Saskatchewan riding was Liberal vs. NDP but the Tories are now ahead by ~4,500  . It makes me really glad for the BBC  . |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 3:52:02 GMT
Canada, latest popular vote figures: Con 4,065,822 Lib 3,934,080 NDP 1,828,230 BQ 1,006,873 Grn 725,932 PPC 197,725 enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e |
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 22, 2019 3:56:57 GMT
Can Trudeau hope for an outright majority? They've clocked up 128 seats so far and are leading in another 30.
Edit: it's mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to do this, meaning they'll have to rely on the Bloc Quebecois (I'm assuming the Greens wouldn't back them despite being far less economically left wing than your average green party).
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 3:57:49 GMT
Can Trudeau hope for an outright majority? They've clocked up 128 seats so far and are leading in another 30. Don't think there's a chance of a majority. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2019 4:09:57 GMT
An abstention of NDP won't be sufficient, probably. But one of BQ or a support of NDP will be.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 4:14:50 GMT
Can Trudeau hope for an outright majority? They've clocked up 128 seats so far and are leading in another 30. Edit: it's mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to do this, meaning they'll have to rely on the Bloc Quebecois (I'm assuming the Greens wouldn't back them despite being far less economically left wing than your average green party). Two chances. None and zero. Considering this has been a close election, the results have been rather boring |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 22, 2019 4:21:54 GMT
A relief for the Liberals but still not good; the majority is gone, they trail in votes and the pattern of the victory of sorts is not very healthy. Poor for the Conservatives: they have just blown an election they could have (and should have) won because they scared urban Ontario. A catastrophic set of results for the NDP, even if is a lesser catastrophe than looked likely earlier this year. An unwelcome return for the Bloc and on one of the darkest campaigns they've ever run: nasty stuff. A missed opportunity for the Greens. And, happily, a major flop for Bernier.
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. It makes me really glad for the BBC 
.