Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279 
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 21, 2019 23:59:55 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 0:20:38 GMT
Swings so far by province:
Newfoundland & Labrador:
2019: (41% of polls reporting)
Lib 46.7%
Con 30.7%
2015:
Lib 64.5%
Con 10.3%
Swing: 19.1% to Con
New Brunswick:
2019: (5% of polls reporting)
Lib 39.5%
Con 34.5%
2015:
Lib 51.6%
Con 25.3%
Swing: 10.6% to Con
Nova Scotia:
2019: (6% of polls reporting)
Lib 37.6%
Con 33.1%
2015:
Lib 61.9%
Con 17.9%
Swing: 19.7% to Con
Prince Edward Island:
2019: (10% of polls reporting)
Lib 44.6%
Con 29.3%
2015:
Lib 58.3%
Con 19.3%
Swing: 11.8% to Con
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2019 0:24:19 GMT
Swings so far by province: Newfoundland & Labrador: 2019: (41% of polls reporting) Lib 46.7% Con 30.7% 2015: Lib 64.5% Con 10.3% Swing: 19.1% to Con New Brunswick: 2019: (5% of polls reporting) Lib 39.5% Con 34.5% 2015: Lib 51.6% Con 25.3% Swing: 10.6% to Con Nova Scotia: 2019: (6% of polls reporting) Lib 37.6% Con 33.1% 2015: Lib 61.9% Con 17.9% Swing: 19.7% to Con Prince Edward Island: 2019: (10% of polls reporting) Lib 44.6% Con 29.3% 2015: Lib 58.3% Con 19.3% Swing: 11.8% to Con And that stupid CBC-cow was chatting of "small drop" for Libs and "small ups" for Cons! |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 22, 2019 0:40:01 GMT
A couple of the traditionally Conservative New Brunswick ridings have been called for the Tories. Largely expected, it's a shock the Liberals ever won then in the first place!
I reckon if the Atlantic is projected across the country it would be a Liberal minority.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 0:49:49 GMT
Libs keep Acadie-Bathurst. Good news for them, means NDP isn't (so far) eating too much into their vote. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 22, 2019 0:50:41 GMT
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 0:55:11 GMT
Bloody hell how obsessed is CBC news with the Greens. The Greens will almost certainly get sub 10% nationally are three parties a lot bigger than them and they seem to be getting ~40% of the coverage...  Great timing!  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 0:57:26 GMT
A couple of the traditionally Conservative New Brunswick ridings have been called for the Tories. Largely expected, it's a shock the Liberals ever won then in the first place! I reckon if the Atlantic is projected across the country it would be a Liberal minority. There's been a 14% swing in Atlantic Canada so far. If you project that across the country you get a pretty big Conservative majority. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 22, 2019 0:58:34 GMT
Bloody hell how obsessed is CBC news with the Greens. The Greens will almost certainly get sub 10% nationally are three parties a lot bigger than them and they seem to be getting ~40% of the coverage... Great timing! Well congrats on winning a seat but they seem to be talking about them more than either the Liberals or the Tories which is totally silly, kind of like the BBC's strange obsession with Farage... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 1:01:47 GMT
The result in 2015 in Atlantic Canada was:
Lib 58.8%
Con 19.0%
NDP 17.9%
Grn 3.5%
Latest result (with about 50% reporting):
Lib 41.9%
Con 30.0%
NDP 16.7%
Grn 9.3%
Changes:
Lib -16.9%
Con +11.0%
NDP -1.2%
Grn+5.8%
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 1:04:13 GMT
The CBC election coverage is so biased it's amazing.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2019 1:08:01 GMT
A couple of the traditionally Conservative New Brunswick ridings have been called for the Tories. Largely expected, it's a shock the Liberals ever won then in the first place! I reckon if the Atlantic is projected across the country it would be a Liberal minority. There's been a 14% swing in Atlantic Canada so far. If you project that across the country you get a pretty big Conservative majority. But we have to take into account, that the Harper-CPC did especially badly there last time; meaning, that the Maritimes found back to normality today/yesterday. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 22, 2019 1:10:07 GMT
There's been a 14% swing in Atlantic Canada so far. If you project that across the country you get a pretty big Conservative majority. But we have to take into account, that the Harper-CPC did especially badly there last time; meaning, that the Maritimes found back to normality today/yesterday. ...according to the CPC-pundit at CBC 8-12 would have been good for them. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 1:12:05 GMT
According to the CBC, a 14% swing to the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada is a "sluggish start".
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 1:35:04 GMT
According to the CBC, a 14% swing to the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada is a "sluggish start". Well it is if you're looking to win 170 seats (probably not the word I would use). They were getting around 10-20% for the most part in atlantic canada in 2015 so that swing whilst good isn't converting to seats except in areas of former strength - and the rest of canada isn't going to swing that much. At the moment there's good news for both main parties - and if you're hoping for a conservative government, that's not what you want to hear. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 22, 2019 1:37:14 GMT
Still very little/nothing from the big provinces.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 1:38:31 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 22, 2019 1:43:43 GMT
The Liberals have almost certainly lost their overall majority, although you wouldn't guess it from the TV coverage. If anything they're giving the impression the Liberals are doing quite well.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 22, 2019 1:55:19 GMT
These micro-subtotals of 100 or 200 votes being declared and added for each individual ballot box would be useful if they told us anything about how the subsamples are swinging or changing compared with last time. They are telling us lots of information about numbers, but virtually nothing about percentages or swings.
If, in a UK general election, I knew what the total number of votes was in the first 5 ballot boxes out of the 44 boxes in Croydon Central, it wouldn't tell me much. But if I knew which 5 boxes they were, and if I knew what the results from those same boxes were last time, it would be hugely useful.
It was fun to watch this style of results programme for the very small provincial election results recently from Prince Edward Island and from Newfoundland & Labrador (which are like London Boroughs in terms of numbers) but this style for a national opinion poll is rather useless. The number of seats in the banner at the bottom of the screen doesn't even have any + or - numbers attached to the absolute numbers. I think I won't carry on watching for much longer.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 22, 2019 1:57:45 GMT
The Liberals have almost certainly lost their overall majority, although you wouldn't guess it from the TV coverage. If anything they're giving the impression the Liberals are doing quite well. you should watch the global news stream |
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