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Post by polaris on Oct 17, 2019 9:39:30 GMT
I assume the 4 seats the Greens are hoping to win are: Saanich—Gulf Islands (which they already hold) Victoria Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Nanaimo—Ladysmith (which they won at a by-election earlier this year) They only polled more than 10% last time in 6 ridings, all of them on Vancouver Island. Their share is pretty low in central Toronto, even in the university seat where they got 2.93%. Look out for utterly nuts regional voting patterns, even by Canadian standards in this election. With those national numbers and the regional straws in the wind we've seen the Tories are going to probably win every seat (again) in Alberta and probably all but one in Saskatchewan, make decent gains in The Atlantics but get creamed in Quebec and go backwards in Ontario. Liberals will lose their hegemony in The Atlantics but still have a solid majority of seats, be pushed back to the greater Montreal area of Quebec, be around the same in Ontario and be back to a metropolitan Winnipeg/Vancouver party west of there, losing everywhere else other than Wascana. As for the NDP, fuck knows. They could be screwed by FPTP if they're unable to focus their rise. At the moment they appear to be on the up everywhere compared to the start of the campaign which doesn't bode well... The cross-currents of provincial politics are likely to affect this election - particularly in Ontario, which accounts for almost 40% of the national electorate. Doug Ford's Conservative provincial government is extremely unpopular, combining hard-right policies with general incompetence and Trumpesque behaviour from Ford himself. |
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Post by pepperminttea on Oct 17, 2019 11:09:37 GMT
I assume the 4 seats the Greens are hoping to win are: Saanich—Gulf Islands (which they already hold) Victoria Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Nanaimo—Ladysmith (which they won at a by-election earlier this year) They only polled more than 10% last time in 6 ridings, all of them on Vancouver Island. Their share is pretty low in central Toronto, even in the university seat where they got 2.93%. Look out for utterly nuts regional voting patterns, even by Canadian standards in this election. With those national numbers and the regional straws in the wind we've seen the Tories are going to probably win every seat (again) in Alberta and probably all but one in Saskatchewan, make decent gains in The Atlantics but get creamed in Quebec and go backwards in Ontario. Liberals will lose their hegemony in The Atlantics but still have a solid majority of seats, be pushed back to the greater Montreal area of Quebec, be around the same in Ontario and be back to a metropolitan Winnipeg/Vancouver party west of there, losing everywhere else other than Wascana. As for the NDP, fuck knows. They could be screwed by FPTP if they're unable to focus their rise. At the moment they appear to be on the up everywhere compared to the start of the campaign which doesn't bode well... Ontario will in my view probably show a very non-uniform swing strongly correlating with how well Doug Ford's provincial party did in the election last year i.e. the 'ethno-burbs' e.g. Scarborough Agincourt, Etobicoke North (Ford's provincial seat) and the York Region (non-white suburbs north of Toronto where the provincial Tory party did ridiculously well) will probably have significant pro-Tory swings, Maxime Bernier's People's Party chipping away at their vote will also be less of a factor here. However the whiter upper middle class seats e.g. Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Burlington, Oakville and the wealthy west side of Mississauga where the provincial Tory party underperformed and Doug Ford is pretty unpopular I suspect will swing Liberal. Broadly agree with the rest of your analysis though the recent NDP uptick will make it significantly more difficult for the Tories to take their seats in Saskatchewan. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2019 20:54:40 GMT
Perhaps a statement of the obvious but the election will probably come down to the way in which Liberal votes are distributed in the Greater Toronto area. If they're heavily concentrated in safe Liberal seats in the centre of Toronto and the Liberals do worse than expected in the outer suburban areas they'll probably lose office. If it holds up in the latter type of seats they'll probably be able to stay in power as a minority government.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 20, 2019 21:37:26 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 22:04:03 GMT
CBC LiveStream:
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 21, 2019 22:16:40 GMT
and an alternative stream What time is kick-off? Edit: Kick-off is 12.30 when the polls close in Newfoundland Opening hours: Newfoundland Time 8:30 a.m. – 8:30 p.m. (12.30) Atlantic Time 8:30 a.m. – 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time 9:30 a.m. – 9:30 p.m. (1.30) Central Time* 8:30 a.m. – 8:30 p.m. Mountain Time* 7:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m. Pacific Time 7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 22:24:39 GMT
and an alternative stream What time is kick-off? CBC will start now (23.30). |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 22:37:01 GMT
Few weeks ago i was not even able to predict my own country correctly; nontheless i'll try it for Canada:
Scheer's only chance would have been, that the ABC-crowd expected Justin T. to get surely reelected, thus wasting votes to NDP/GP/Abstention. But the public seems to be frightened by OpinionPolls all over the place, so i expect the Liberals to do a little bit better than polled (not uncommon for a governing party in the recent past).
165 Lib.
105 Cons.
037 BQ
030 NDP
001 GPC
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 21, 2019 22:37:04 GMT
The chances of a Conservative majority are currently about 2% according to the projections. It'll be interesting to see how accurate that turns out to be tonight.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 21, 2019 22:47:31 GMT
any website out there that I can bet this election on? Paddypower is telling me I can bet on Romanian politics but not this, and ladbrokes and will hill are both useless.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 22:56:53 GMT
The chances of a Conservative majority are currently about 2% according to the projections. It'll be interesting to see how accurate that turns out to be tonight. Am armed with Your 3 lists - once again thanks! |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 21, 2019 22:58:15 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 21, 2019 22:58:50 GMT
The chances of a Conservative majority are currently about 2% according to the projections. It'll be interesting to see how accurate that turns out to be tonight. Am armed with Your 3 lists - once again thanks! I haven't managed to get round to doing the BQ targets. Apologies for that. I'm going to fill in the target lists during the night. They'll go grey (meaning no result) very shortly. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,824
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 21, 2019 22:59:07 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 21, 2019 23:00:43 GMT
How many ****ing short breaks are we going to have to endure?!
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 21, 2019 23:07:12 GMT
Like most countries they don't have declarations in Canada, it's all done by the media companies.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 21, 2019 23:29:11 GMT
I hate this election coverage. Both channels are sensationalising a total of 500 votes as being representative of the Liberals holding off in all of Newfoundland and Labrador, which is an area with over 350,000 electors. It always happens on any election night, people are desperate for news so focus on a tiny number of votes. Later on in the night they'll probably ignore entire provinces because so much will be happening. |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Oct 21, 2019 23:42:15 GMT
It always happen on any election night, people are desperate for news so focus on a tiny number of votes. Later on in the night they'll probably ignore entire provinces because so much will be happening. That might be true in the US and Canada, but at least the British televised media actually look for meaningful trends such as vote swing/vote share changes in the early results. for sure that would be better, but you can't really do anything with only 50 votes counted. The only thing we can say for sure is that compared to 2015, the Libs are dropping votes but no-one else seems strong. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 21, 2019 23:47:14 GMT
Wow — the Conservatives are challenging strongly in Bonavista despite it going Liberal by 82% to 10% in 2015. (There's been a by-election in the meantime). Current votes: Lib 1,825 Con 1,693 55 of 260 reporting. httos://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonavista—Burin—Trinity#Election_results |
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 21, 2019 23:55:39 GMT
That might be true in the US and Canada, but at least the British televised media actually look for meaningful trends such as vote swing/vote share changes in the early results. for sure that would be better, but you can't really do anything with only 50 votes counted. The only thing we can say for sure is that compared to 2015, the Libs are dropping votes but no-one else seems strong. You should probably look again. |
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