The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 16, 2019 10:30:06 GMT
Looking at the poll, we're not really a very representative sample of Canadian opinion, are we? Though slightly more so than when the campaign started  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2019 10:35:43 GMT
Looking at the poll, we're not really a very representative sample of Canadian opinion, are we? Probably more representative of Canadian opinion than of UK opinion |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,722
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 16, 2019 15:42:31 GMT
I know, but don't you just love it! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 16, 2019 17:04:28 GMT
Sherbrooke goes for Extremely Quebec voting patterns even by the standards of provincial Quebec so... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 16, 2019 18:00:00 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 16, 2019 19:24:21 GMT
I assume the 4 seats the Greens are hoping to win are:
Saanich—Gulf Islands (which they already hold)
Victoria
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke
Nanaimo—Ladysmith (which they won at a by-election earlier this year)
They only polled more than 10% last time in 6 ridings, all of them on Vancouver Island. Their share is pretty low in central Toronto, even in the university seat where they got 2.93%.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 16, 2019 19:36:28 GMT
I assume the 4 seats the Greens are hoping to win are: Saanich—Gulf Islands (which they already hold) Victoria Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Nanaimo—Ladysmith (which they won at a by-election earlier this year) They only polled more than 10% last time in 6 ridings, all of them on Vancouver Island. Their share is pretty low in central Toronto, even in the university seat where they got 2.93%. Look out for utterly nuts regional voting patterns, even by Canadian standards in this election. With those national numbers and the regional straws in the wind we've seen the Tories are going to probably win every seat (again) in Alberta and probably all but one in Saskatchewan, make decent gains in The Atlantics but get creamed in Quebec and go backwards in Ontario. Liberals will lose their hegemony in The Atlantics but still have a solid majority of seats, be pushed back to the greater Montreal area of Quebec, be around the same in Ontario and be back to a metropolitan Winnipeg/Vancouver party west of there, losing everywhere else other than Wascana. As for the NDP, fuck knows. They could be screwed by FPTP if they're unable to focus their rise. At the moment they appear to be on the up everywhere compared to the start of the campaign which doesn't bode well... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 16, 2019 20:32:42 GMT
Quite a few articles from Alberta now seem to show that exactly the same grievances against Trudeau the elder are going to haunt Trudeau the younger.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 16, 2019 20:43:24 GMT
This may be useful...
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 16, 2019 20:52:27 GMT
Quite a few articles from Alberta now seem to show that exactly the same grievances against Trudeau the elder are going to haunt Trudeau the younger. The really weird thing about Alberta is that other than ludicrous amounts of oil sands it's far more similar to the likes of Colorado than Wyoming, Idaho & the Dakotas across the border and though it's often 'twinned' with Texas it diverges massively from it as even it's metropolitan areas habitually vote for often arch conservatives at GE time. If anyone is able to stay up next Monday night, do so. Canadian general elections leave you sitting there often unable to comprehend what you're seeing! 😄 |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 16, 2019 20:58:01 GMT
Not that surprising given its most recent result and the considerably above average latent BQ strength in this riding. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Oct 16, 2019 21:38:40 GMT
Quite a few articles from Alberta now seem to show that exactly the same grievances against Trudeau the elder are going to haunt Trudeau the younger. The really weird thing about Alberta is that other than ludicrous amounts of oil sands it's far more similar to the likes of Colorado than Wyoming, Idaho & the Dakotas across the border and though it's often 'twinned' with Texas it diverges massively from it as even it's metropolitan areas habitually vote for often arch conservatives at GE time. If anyone is able to stay up next Monday night, do so. Canadian general elections leave you sitting there often unable to comprehend what you're seeing! 😄 It's a shame no one to my knowledge has uploaded past Canadian elections on YouTube, I'd love to be able to see the carnage of 1984 and 1993 unfold in real time. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 16, 2019 21:40:23 GMT
The really weird thing about Alberta is that other than ludicrous amounts of oil sands it's far more similar to the likes of Colorado than Wyoming, Idaho & the Dakotas across the border and though it's often 'twinned' with Texas it diverges massively from it as even it's metropolitan areas habitually vote for often arch conservatives at GE time. If anyone is able to stay up next Monday night, do so. Canadian general elections leave you sitting there often unable to comprehend what you're seeing! 😄 It's a shame no one to my knowledge has uploaded past Canadian elections on YouTube, I'd love to be able to see the carnage of 1984 and 1993 unfold in real time. Might be worth contacting the TV networks? They'd get a load of hits from this Forum if nothing else. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Oct 16, 2019 21:45:47 GMT
It's a shame no one to my knowledge has uploaded past Canadian elections on YouTube, I'd love to be able to see the carnage of 1984 and 1993 unfold in real time. Might be worth contacting the TV networks? They'd get a load of hits from this Forum if nothing else. Hmmm, I may look into that when I have time. The Tories are now leading in seats in the CBC Tracker. newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/ |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 16, 2019 21:46:52 GMT
The really weird thing about Alberta is that other than ludicrous amounts of oil sands it's far more similar to the likes of Colorado than Wyoming, Idaho & the Dakotas across the border and though it's often 'twinned' with Texas it diverges massively from it as even it's metropolitan areas habitually vote for often arch conservatives at GE time. If anyone is able to stay up next Monday night, do so. Canadian general elections leave you sitting there often unable to comprehend what you're seeing! 😄 It's a shame no one to my knowledge has uploaded past Canadian elections on YouTube, I'd love to be able to see the carnage of 1984 and 1993 unfold in real time. 2015 was pretty nuts, the first two hours was only one party winning seats...! Quebec & Ontario 2014 were both hilarious as the panels were having trouble comprehending the results, the Liberal meltdown of 2018 in Ontario was a sight to behold too. Canada has a huge amount of YouTube ready crazy election results where party meltdowns are a matter of course! |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 16, 2019 21:50:05 GMT
A massive caveat on that is that they, and everyone else, use regional subsamples as gospel. Canadian pollsters do try to take account of that more than just about anyone else but it's still somewhat hairy. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 16, 2019 22:29:13 GMT
The really weird thing about Alberta is that other than ludicrous amounts of oil sands it's far more similar to the likes of Colorado than Wyoming, Idaho & the Dakotas across the border and though it's often 'twinned' with Texas it diverges massively from it as even it's metropolitan areas habitually vote for often arch conservatives at GE time. If anyone is able to stay up next Monday night, do so. Canadian general elections leave you sitting there often unable to comprehend what you're seeing! 😄 It's a shame no one to my knowledge has uploaded past Canadian elections on YouTube, I'd love to be able to see the carnage of 1984 and 1993 unfold in real time. There are short clips like this from 2008. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 17, 2019 0:20:31 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 17, 2019 7:46:48 GMT
You'd think interfering in a foreign election was out of fashion. Out of interest, is that photo Obama or Trudeau himself? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 17, 2019 7:51:50 GMT
Blimey. Blanchet was elected as the BQ leader unopposed as well... |
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