Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 9, 2019 14:44:38 GMT
With Speaker John Bercow announcing his intention to stand down, there will be a vacancy in Buckingham, though there may not be time for a byelection before a GE is announced. However, there will be a vacancy in the Speaker's chair. Who has said that they're interested?
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 9, 2019 15:29:35 GMT
Is Bercow also calculating that the Tories would have less chance of winning back his seat in by-election circumstances compared to a general election?
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 9, 2019 15:39:03 GMT
I can't imagine any other party than the Conservatives winning Buckingham.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 9, 2019 17:36:53 GMT
I can't imagine any other party than the Conservatives winning Buckingham. If the Tories put up a brexiteer ( and one rather assumes they would) a Lib Dem victory here from nowhere isn't beyond the bounds of possibility? |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 9, 2019 17:46:23 GMT
I can't imagine any other party than the Conservatives winning Buckingham. If the Tories put up a brexiteer ( and one rather assumes they would) a Lib Dem victory here from nowhere isn't beyond the bounds of possibility? I don't know. Its really 'county' true blue. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 9, 2019 17:52:01 GMT
If the Tories put up a brexiteer ( and one rather assumes they would) a Lib Dem victory here from nowhere isn't beyond the bounds of possibility? I don't know. Its really 'county' true blue. But the Lib Dems don't have no go areas, and you might well say the same about a number of constituencies formerly equally the deepest shade of blue but subsequently Lib Dem? Okay a very long shot but in changing times not impossible. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 9, 2019 18:19:43 GMT
If the Tories put up a brexiteer ( and one rather assumes they would) a Lib Dem victory here from nowhere isn't beyond the bounds of possibility? I don't know. Its really 'county' true blue. It's similar to Guildford which voted LD in 2001. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
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Post by iain on Sept 9, 2019 18:22:45 GMT
I don't know. Its really 'county' true blue. It's similar to Guildford which voted LD in 2001. Not really. It's far posher and doesn't have a large town. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 9, 2019 18:29:32 GMT
It's similar to Guildford which voted LD in 2001. Not really. It's far posher and doesn't have a large town. It's a collection of villages. Used to have a degree of deferential working class voters but few of them can afford to live there now. It's very middle class county set |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,692
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Post by mboy on Sept 9, 2019 18:39:20 GMT
Perhaps the Witney by election is a better guide. We did quite well (30%), but didnt really get near winning. One of the problems in Witney was the resilience of the Labour vote to squeze.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 9, 2019 19:00:19 GMT
I have been pondering the history of the Buckingham constituency which of course is far more rural/ blue since it lost the MK end, but had been a Labour seat under Aidan Crawley (1950-1) and Robert Maxwell (1964-70) but that at least it shows a liking for more, er,colourful MPs. In more recent times it was fairly solidly Tory, as in the first 3 elections for Bercow as a Conservative candidate (1997, 2001, 2005) when he was generally getting 50%+ with Lab and LD very close to each other with roughly 20-25% each.Then in the famous 2010 election as Speaker Bercow faced significant opposition from John Stevens with 21% to Bercow's 47%, with Farange trailing in third at 17%. An interesting take on how the constituency felt on the Brexit question then, given Stevens' famously pro-Euro stance. On the two last outings, 2015 and 2017, Bercow has been getting around 65% and the challenges have come from UKIP (21% in 2015 but only 8% in 2017) and from the Greens(14%,then 16%). My feeling a constituency which is pretty strongly traditional true blue, so how will they vote in an election where traditional true blue Tories have either fled or been pushed out of the party?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2019 19:11:28 GMT
They haven't
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 9, 2019 19:35:11 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2019 19:35:34 GMT
Yes I'm sure that as a working class leftie from an industrial town in the north of England (which you hardly ever leave), you really have your finger on the pule of traditional 'true blue' Conservatives from the Home counties.. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 9, 2019 20:13:03 GMT
I think it best we discuss the election of the next Speaker in the existing thread - which I have bumped to the top of General UK Politics - rather than in the by-elections board. I have moved all posts relating to it down there. Any posts relating specifically to Buckingham, I've kept here as far as practically possible. Not that a by-election will necessarily take place. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 9, 2019 20:16:29 GMT
I see this happening at two levels. First , the headline departures of MPs, former cabinet ministers, etc, some of whom I admired, some I didn't, bur undoubtedly Tories many of whom had been at the heart of the Tory party for decades. I guess Pete may try and claim, as I know Carlton has, that these were not true Tories, they were somehow fellow travelling commies who had infiltrated the true party as they believe it to be. Yes we are talking those well known Commies like Heseltine, Clarke, Hammond, Gauke and Grieve. I have no doubt the other old reds like Cameron and Osborne are also on the list. It is so ludicrous that it is very difficult to respond in all seriousness. and I find it difficult to find myself defending the right wing politicians I have spent my whole political career attacking. But they were honourable people who stood for values that were widely held, and they commanded a substantial vote in the country, and especially in rural areas and country towns, exactly the sort of area like Buckingham. But most I named above, and so many more, have now left the Conservative Party, or been expelled. I think there will be many more, maybe more MPs including some ministers,, certainly Peers, many long established councillors. Today's departure of the Duke of Wellington says it all. The old Tory party is dying before our eyes. It is being replaced by something a lot of these old school Tories see as a bunch of spivs, untrustworthy, corrupt, populists with eye to a new main chance.In many cases, not all, I fear they are right. But second, away from the headlines, I am in touch with many rank and file true blue Tories in my own locality, some of whom are long standing personal friends ( yes, I admit it, some of my best friends have been Tories). So many of them are bewildered by what is going on. Many of the were actually Leavers, but had convinced themselves that we would negotiate a deal. Some are still desperately trying to believe Boris , against all the evidence. But many are realising the truth and are in despair. I know a lot of lifelong traditional Tories who might vote Lib Dem for the first time in their lives, and many more who probably just won't vote. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2019 20:26:37 GMT
I see this happening at two levels. First , the headline departures of MPs, former cabinet ministers, etc, some of whom I admired, some I didn't, bur undoubtedly Tories many of whom had been at the heart of the Tory party for decades. I guess Pete may try and claim, as I know Carlton has, that these were not true Tories, they were somehow fellow travelling commies who had infiltrated the true party as they believe it to be. Yes we are talking those well known Commies like Heseltine, Clarke, Hammond, Gauke and Grieve. I have no doubt the other old reds like Cameron and Osborne are also on the list. It is so ludicrous that it is very difficult to respond in all seriousness. and I find it difficult to find myself defending the right wing politicians I have spent my whole political career attacking. But they were honourable people who stood for values that were widely held, and they commanded a substantial vote in the country, and especially in rural areas and country towns, exactly the sort of area like Buckingham. But most I named above, and so many more, have now left the Conservative Party, or been expelled. I think there will be many more, maybe more MPs including some ministers,, certainly Peers, many long established councillors. Today's departure of the Duke of Wellington says it all. The old Tory party is dying before our eyes. It is being replaced by something a lot of these old school Tories see as a bunch of spivs, untrustworthy, corrupt, populists with eye to a new main chance.In many cases, not all, I fear they are right. But second, away from the headlines, I am in touch with many rank and file true blue Tories in my own locality, some of whom are long standing personal friends ( yes, I admit it, some of my best friends have been Tories). So many of them are bewildered by what is going on. Many of the were actually Leavers, but had convinced themselves that we would negotiate a deal. Some are still desperately trying to believe Boris , against all the evidence. But many are realising the truth and are in despair. I know a lot of lifelong traditional Tories who might vote Lib Dem for the first time in their lives, and many more who probably just won't vote. You don't need to respond in seriousness or otherwise to a position which I haven't articulated but which you have invented and ascribed to me with no basis whatsoever. There are, self-evidently, left-wing Tories, whether of the old Heathite school (who are very small) or of the more modern Osborne type who are drifting from the Conservatives at this time but there are equally large numbers of people like me who were loyal Conservatives under Thatcher and have not felt able to support the party recently but who are likely to return (as carlton43 and several others on this board already have). Just as the Lib Dems are attracting new supporters and members like Philip Lee but shedding others, such as those who object to his 'homophobia' and others still like Antiochian who will not support a single issue Eurofanatic party that the Lib Dems have become. All parties face this kind of churn in support all the time even if it is more pronounced in current circumstances. The idea that there are some huge hoard of traditional Conservative voters in a constituency like this who are going to defect en masse to the Lib Dems is for the birds. IN somewhere like Putney is all too plausible, but here we are talking about a quite different kind of voter |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Sept 9, 2019 20:33:01 GMT
I can't imagine any other party than the Conservatives winning Buckingham. I recall Robert Maxwell winning it a couple of times! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2019 20:42:04 GMT
There's always one isn't there..
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 9, 2019 21:15:21 GMT
I can't imagine any other party than the Conservatives winning Buckingham. I recall Robert Maxwell winning it a couple of times! MK was in the seat then. |
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