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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 9, 2019 21:34:43 GMT
I see this happening at two levels. First , the headline departures of MPs, former cabinet ministers, etc, some of whom I admired, some I didn't, bur undoubtedly Tories many of whom had been at the heart of the Tory party for decades. I guess Pete may try and claim, as I know Carlton has, that these were not true Tories, they were somehow fellow travelling commies who had infiltrated the true party as they believe it to be. Yes we are talking those well known Commies like Heseltine, Clarke, Hammond, Gauke and Grieve. I have no doubt the other old reds like Cameron and Osborne are also on the list. It is so ludicrous that it is very difficult to respond in all seriousness. and I find it difficult to find myself defending the right wing politicians I have spent my whole political career attacking. But they were honourable people who stood for values that were widely held, and they commanded a substantial vote in the country, and especially in rural areas and country towns, exactly the sort of area like Buckingham. But most I named above, and so many more, have now left the Conservative Party, or been expelled. I think there will be many more, maybe more MPs including some ministers,, certainly Peers, many long established councillors. Today's departure of the Duke of Wellington says it all. The old Tory party is dying before our eyes. It is being replaced by something a lot of these old school Tories see as a bunch of spivs, untrustworthy, corrupt, populists with eye to a new main chance.In many cases, not all, I fear they are right. But second, away from the headlines, I am in touch with many rank and file true blue Tories in my own locality, some of whom are long standing personal friends ( yes, I admit it, some of my best friends have been Tories). So many of them are bewildered by what is going on. Many of the were actually Leavers, but had convinced themselves that we would negotiate a deal. Some are still desperately trying to believe Boris , against all the evidence. But many are realising the truth and are in despair. I know a lot of lifelong traditional Tories who might vote Lib Dem for the first time in their lives, and many more who probably just won't vote. Well, there are trad true blue Tories and trad etc and so forth. Enoch Powell was surely a traditionalist and I think we can be pretty sure where he'd stand on things today. There's quite a good piece by John Harris in The Guardian arguing that we've had radical change branded as "reform" since Thatcher 40 years ago. Primarily it was a feature of Conservative govt but it was also one of the areas where Blair adopted Thatcherite principles. I think it true that patrician Toryism was entirely different from Social Democracy and it's a misrepresentation of both Toryism and social democracy to think it was; but it's also now dead. The current party is heading in a different direction but it is definitely within the Thatcher tradition which in turn saw itself as re-assertion of trad values. But Thatcher was the victory of one wing over the other; what we now have is the expulsion of one wing, which is a weakening of a broad church party. Potentially I see two wings in the smaller party; a Cummings-ite anti-establishment wing and a big money wing. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 9, 2019 23:05:32 GMT
I see this happening at two levels. First , the headline departures of MPs, former cabinet ministers, etc, some of whom I admired, some I didn't, bur undoubtedly Tories many of whom had been at the heart of the Tory party for decades. I guess Pete may try and claim, as I know Carlton has, that these were not true Tories, they were somehow fellow travelling commies who had infiltrated the true party as they believe it to be. Yes we are talking those well known Commies like Heseltine, Clarke, Hammond, Gauke and Grieve. I have no doubt the other old reds like Cameron and Osborne are also on the list. It is so ludicrous that it is very difficult to respond in all seriousness. and I find it difficult to find myself defending the right wing politicians I have spent my whole political career attacking. But they were honourable people who stood for values that were widely held, and they commanded a substantial vote in the country, and especially in rural areas and country towns, exactly the sort of area like Buckingham. But most I named above, and so many more, have now left the Conservative Party, or been expelled. I think there will be many more, maybe more MPs including some ministers,, certainly Peers, many long established councillors. Today's departure of the Duke of Wellington says it all. The old Tory party is dying before our eyes. It is being replaced by something a lot of these old school Tories see as a bunch of spivs, untrustworthy, corrupt, populists with eye to a new main chance.In many cases, not all, I fear they are right. But second, away from the headlines, I am in touch with many rank and file true blue Tories in my own locality, some of whom are long standing personal friends ( yes, I admit it, some of my best friends have been Tories). So many of them are bewildered by what is going on. Many of the were actually Leavers, but had convinced themselves that we would negotiate a deal. Some are still desperately trying to believe Boris , against all the evidence. But many are realising the truth and are in despair. I know a lot of lifelong traditional Tories who might vote Lib Dem for the first time in their lives, and many more who probably just won't vote. In the most recent Comres poll 12% of 2017 Tory voters have switched to Lib Dem, which is about 5% of absolute voting intention. Meanwhile 4% of 2017 Lib Dems have gone the other way, and 5% to BXP who may end up Tory, but that is only about 0.7% absolute. Net swing about 4%. However about 28% of the current Tory VI are still Remainers. I would think they would also tend to be in the Cameron/Osborne/Hammond camp in other ways, and perhaps rather appalled at the way Johnson is splashing the cash around in the face of a no deal Brexit. This is a big chunk of voting intention which will be present in Huntingdon probably more than in Midlands marginals. More purges and a no deal Brexit and these people may desert. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 9, 2019 23:19:33 GMT
I recall Robert Maxwell winning it a couple of times! MK was in the seat then. Except that Milton Keynes did not exist at the time. It wasn't designated until 1st January 1967. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 9, 2019 23:23:03 GMT
Except that Milton Keynes did not exist at the time. It wasn't designated until 1st January 1967. This is correct, but the area was quite industrial and gave Labour a good core to build off. Less people lived in the rest of the constituency then as well; it wasn't really within the London commuter orbit then, though o/c is now. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 9, 2019 23:24:07 GMT
Except that Milton Keynes did not exist at the time. It wasn't designated until 1st January 1967. That's true although I'd be surprised if the existing settlements in that area weren't already larger in population that Buckingham itself in 1967. Places like Bletchley. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 9, 2019 23:30:45 GMT
Except that Milton Keynes did not exist at the time. It wasn't designated until 1st January 1967. That's true although I'd be surprised if the existing settlements in that area weren't already larger in population that Buckingham itself in 1967. Places like Bletchley. You might have gathered that my point was not entirely serious. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 10, 2019 0:04:39 GMT
That's true although I'd be surprised if the existing settlements in that area weren't already larger in population that Buckingham itself in 1967. Places like Bletchley. You might have gathered that my point was not entirely serious. It looked fairly serious to me actually. But I'm a bit tin-eared. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Sept 10, 2019 0:33:15 GMT
Neighbouring seat to MK as others have commented. I think the comparison to Witney is about right. I can see how the Lib Dems get 30% lots of angry remain Tories alienated right now. And many fed up with the system that’s meant they haven’t really had a vote for 15 years - speaking to friends there they feel totally disenfranchised.
But I can’t see how the Lib Dems break through to win, and I can see that for the neighbouring seat in Aylesbury which is a fraction of the size and has a stack of Lib Dem councillors - the comparison to Guildford works better for that seat. So if miracles happen in North Bucks I’d keep my eye on Aylesbury instead.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 10, 2019 1:09:23 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 10, 2019 1:42:04 GMT
I wonder if Bercow will defect to Labour about 5 minutes after he ceases to be Speaker...
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 10, 2019 3:22:32 GMT
Neighbouring seat to MK as others have commented. I think the comparison to Witney is about right. I can see how the Lib Dems get 30% lots of angry remain Tories alienated right now. And many fed up with the system that’s meant they haven’t really had a vote for 15 years - speaking to friends there they feel totally disenfranchised. But I can’t see how the Lib Dems break through to win, and I can see that for the neighbouring seat in Aylesbury which is a fraction of the size and has a stack of Lib Dem councillors - the comparison to Guildford works better for that seat. So if miracles happen in North Bucks I’d keep my eye on Aylesbury instead. Though the complication there is that Aylesbury has tended to a rather maverick town, electing a lot of UKIP councillors at their peak. I seem to recall it was even predicted as one of their top 10 or so seats. The working class London overspill demographic is also much larger there, making it more like Banbury, Kettering, or Wellingborough than Guildford. Looking at the map, Buckingham unusually curves all the way down to Princes Risborough in Wycombe District. That should be a particular focus for the Lib Dems, there are a lot of wealthy commuters. Speaking of rail, could HS2 affect this by-election? One slightly odd point appears to be some Labour strength in Buckingham itself. Is that a student vote? |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Sept 10, 2019 4:40:21 GMT
I wonder if Bercow will defect to Labour about 5 minutes after he ceases to be Speaker... That would be a defection from the opposition to the muddled middle |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 10, 2019 7:11:36 GMT
Except that Milton Keynes did not exist at the time. It wasn't designated until 1st January 1967. I was referring to the original village of Milton Keynes. |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Sept 10, 2019 8:36:32 GMT
I wonder what will be the next constituency to have a thread regarding a by-election that almost certainly isn't taking place.
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 10, 2019 8:38:20 GMT
I wonder what will be the next constituency to have a thread regarding a by-election that almost certainly isn't taking place. Uxbridge and South Ruislip. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 10, 2019 9:04:54 GMT
I wonder what will be the next constituency to have a thread regarding a by-election that almost certainly isn't taking place. Uxbridge and South Ruislip. It will happen if he is found lying dead in a ditch! |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 10, 2019 9:22:14 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip. It will happen if he is found lying dead in a ditch! If Brexit should die, Think only this of it That there's some corner of a Euro ditch That is forever Turkish. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 10, 2019 10:38:42 GMT
Except that Milton Keynes did not exist at the time. It wasn't designated until 1st January 1967. I was referring to the original village of Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes Village was hardly likely to be the centre-point if a Labour constituency. It probably had a population of a few hundred at the time. The likes of Bletchley, Wolverton, etc were more significant. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 10:44:56 GMT
I was referring to the original village of Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes Village was hardly likely to be the centre-point if a Labour constituency. It probably had a population of a few hundred at the time. The likes of Bletchley, Wolverton, etc were more significant. Wolverton was an early railway town. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 10, 2019 10:52:24 GMT
Milton Keynes Village was hardly likely to be the centre-point if a Labour constituency. It probably had a population of a few hundred at the time. The likes of Bletchley, Wolverton, etc were more significant. Wolverton was an early railway town. |
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