Sheffield Hallam

[cogload]

Angela Smith was out with Laura Gordon last night in Worrall. Gordon hinted that Smith may stand again in the next election. (Twitter).

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jarred O'Mara: The Independent Expert Panel (IEP), which decides on sanctions for MPs accused of bullying, harassment, or sexual misconduct, has recommended he is stripped of any right to hold a parliamentary pass.

[Merseymike]

Apr 19, 2021 14:22:33 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Jarred O'Mara: The Independent Expert Panel (IEP), which decides on sanctions for MPs accused of bullying, harassment, or sexual misconduct, has recommended he is stripped of any right to hold a parliamentary pass.

But as he is no longer an MP, and didn't go to parliament very often when he was, its not really very relevant.
I hope he is having a happier time then during his short spell in Parliament

[rivers10]

A sad and unpleasant business all around
If I'm honest I'm just glad that the good people of Hallam could look past it and still gave Labour a chance after we inadvertently hoisted O'Mara upon them, Olivia Blake seems like she'll be a good locally rooted MP though

[Merseymike]

Apr 19, 2021 15:36:57 GMT rivers10 said:

A sad and unpleasant business all around
If I'm honest I'm just glad that the good people of Hallam could look past it and still gave Labour a chance after we inadvertently hoisted O'Mara upon them, Olivia Blake seems like she'll be a good locally rooted MP though

Well, crystal balls are in short supply - and you never know until it happens what might trigger someone's mental health problems. In most roles it doesn't matter and wouldn't be noticed outside the organisation, but clearly that's not the case for an MP.

[ilerda]

It’s a shame this by-election didn’t happen. If it had Laura Gordon might have beaten Jane Dodds by being an even shorter serving MP.

[rivers10]

Apr 19, 2021 16:34:37 GMT ilerda said:

It’s a shame this by-election didn’t happen. If it had Laura Gordon might have beaten Jane Dodds by being an even shorter serving MP.

I reckon had there been a by election the Lib dems would have certainly won and then used incumbency (however brief) to narrowly hold on in 2019

[ilerda]

Apr 19, 2021 16:40:23 GMT rivers10 said:

Apr 19, 2021 16:34:37 GMT ilerda said:

It’s a shame this by-election didn’t happen. If it had Laura Gordon might have beaten Jane Dodds by being an even shorter serving MP.

I reckon had there been a by election the Lib dems would have certainly won and then used incumbency (however brief) to narrowly hold on in 2019

Yes they almost certainly would have won the by-election. But it might have been less certain at the general I think. 

Laura Gordon was essentially branding herself as the shadow MP after O'Mara's fall from grace and doing surgeries etc. I'm not sure 2 or 3 months of actual incumbency would necessarily have done all that much for her prospects. It certainly didn't really help Dodds.

[rivers10]

Apr 19, 2021 16:55:26 GMT ilerda said:

Apr 19, 2021 16:40:23 GMT rivers10 said:

I reckon had there been a by election the Lib dems would have certainly won and then used incumbency (however brief) to narrowly hold on in 2019

Yes they almost certainly would have won the by-election. But it might have been less certain at the general I think. 

Laura Gordon was essentially branding herself as the shadow MP after O'Mara's fall from grace and doing surgeries etc. I'm not sure 2 or 3 months of actual incumbency would necessarily have done all that much for her prospects. It certainly didn't really help Dodds.

This is true but remember Labour only won by 700 odd votes here in 2019

Incumbency however brief would have gave them a smidge more name recognition (if from nothing else other than the media reports from the by election win) and essentially a small core of paid campaigners (The MP and her staff) along with a physical presence in the constituency via the MP's office

Its not much but enough to sway 400 votes? I reckon probably so

[andrew111]

Apr 19, 2021 17:07:17 GMT rivers10 said:

Apr 19, 2021 16:55:26 GMT ilerda said:

Yes they almost certainly would have won the by-election. But it might have been less certain at the general I think. 

Laura Gordon was essentially branding herself as the shadow MP after O'Mara's fall from grace and doing surgeries etc. I'm not sure 2 or 3 months of actual incumbency would necessarily have done all that much for her prospects. It certainly didn't really help Dodds.

This is true but remember Labour only won by 700 odd votes here in 2019

Incumbency however brief would have gave them a smidge more name recognition (if from nothing else other than the media reports from the by election win) and essentially a small core of paid campaigners (The MP and her staff) along with a physical presence in the constituency via the MP's office

Its not much but enough to sway 400 votes? I reckon probably so

The main thing is that the Lib Dems had spent all the expenses on the non existent by-election, which all counted towards the GE long campaign. Trapped by Labour perhaps?. I assume that a by-election woukd have reset the expenses.
The result of this was that most of the campaign literature did not mention the candidate, as highlighted by the chap who laid it out in his garden. I think if there had been a by-election followed by a GE the Lib Dems would have won both easily. If it was a Labour trap it was certainly worthy of Dominic Cummings..

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

I think you underestimate the voting changes in the ward, it would have been close in a by election, unless you think that the Conservative vote would have collapsed and gone Liberal Democrat which I doubt due to the Boris Johnson factor.

[ilerda]

Apr 19, 2021 17:07:17 GMT rivers10 said:

Apr 19, 2021 16:55:26 GMT ilerda said:

Yes they almost certainly would have won the by-election. But it might have been less certain at the general I think. 

Laura Gordon was essentially branding herself as the shadow MP after O'Mara's fall from grace and doing surgeries etc. I'm not sure 2 or 3 months of actual incumbency would necessarily have done all that much for her prospects. It certainly didn't really help Dodds.

This is true but remember Labour only won by 700 odd votes here in 2019

Incumbency however brief would have gave them a smidge more name recognition (if from nothing else other than the media reports from the by election win) and essentially a small core of paid campaigners (The MP and her staff) along with a physical presence in the constituency via the MP's office

Its not much but enough to sway 400 votes? I reckon probably so

Yes I think you’re right that it would have boosted her profile. But actually it would probably have helped her to persuade 2019 Tory voters to support her rather than take 400 votes off Labour. It would have made her seem eminently more viable in their eyes.

On a minor note, MPs’ staff aren’t allowed to be paid to campaign. They have to take unpaid leave or do it only in non-work hours. And I will say, having helped a newly elected MP set up following an election, it takes a good couple of months to really get things going and get your local operation properly up and running. It’s by no means an overnight thing, and the results of that effort probably take even longer to trickle through to actual voters.

[iain]

Apr 27, 2021 6:52:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

I think you underestimate the voting changes in the ward, it would have been close in a by election, unless you think that the Conservative vote would have collapsed and gone Liberal Democrat which I doubt due to the Boris Johnson factor.

A by-election would have been a very large Lib Dem win - not just because the polling situation was very different prior to the election campaign, but because a by-election is a very different animal.

I have little doubt we would have held the seat if we’d gained it by a fair whack in a by-election - not necessarily because of incumbency per se, but because lots of people would just have voted her in, and would give her another chance. A by-election effect at the subsequent election is a well-established part of British electoral politics.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Apr 27, 2021 7:21:38 GMT iain said:

Apr 27, 2021 6:52:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

I think you underestimate the voting changes in the ward, it would have been close in a by election, unless you think that the Conservative vote would have collapsed and gone Liberal Democrat which I doubt due to the Boris Johnson factor.

A by-election would have been a very large Lib Dem win - not just because the polling situation was very different prior to the election campaign, but because a by-election is a very different animal.

I have little doubt we would have held the seat if we’d gained it by a fair whack in a by-election - not necessarily because of incumbency per se, but because lots of people would just have voted her in, and would give her another chance. A by-election effect at the subsequent election is a well-established part of British electoral politics.

Quite possible, if the Conservative vote collapsed, that is the key.

[iain]

Not just the Conservative vote - in the event of a by-election in 2018/19 there would almost certainly have been a large Labour to Lib Dem swing.

[ilerda]

The well established by-election effect that kept Jane Dodds in a job because people thought she deserved a fair chance?

[iain]

The well established effect that saw Jane Dodds perform better than she would have if there was no by-election (e.g. Brecon LD +7, Mongomery LD -2: I think Brecon was probably our biggest increase in Wales, possibly by quite a way?). It was pretty clear from when we saw the anaemic margin in the by-election that Brecon was going to be a very likely Conservative regain.

[The Bishop]

It remains little short of incredible the LibDems didn't take this seat at the last GE, even if their campaigning was in some way handicapped by the by-election that never was.

[carlton43]

Apr 27, 2021 10:35:28 GMT The Bishop said:

It remains little short of incredible the LibDems didn't take this seat at the last GE, even if their campaigning was in some way handicapped by the by-election that never was.

I put it down to you having a much better candidate, a good campaign, and the Boris/Brexit effect on the Conservative vote depressing the LD tactical vote.

[andrew111]

Apr 27, 2021 6:52:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

I think you underestimate the voting changes in the ward, it would have been close in a by election, unless you think that the Conservative vote would have collapsed and gone Liberal Democrat which I doubt due to the Boris Johnson factor.

In the General Election many Remain supporting Tories stayed loyal for fear of Corbyn, while many on both sides of the Brexit vote went for Boris to "get Brexit done" because they were sick of it. Neither of those tendencies would have been very salient in a by-election, where people are not thinking about electing a govt. Based on the other by-elections in that Parliament I think the Lib Dems would have won a by-election in Hallam by at least 10%. Following GE would have been closer, but people like to back a winner.