Local Council by-elections 8th August

[Tony Otim]

CAMBRIDGE BC; Newnham (LD resigned following election as MEP)
Candidates:
MATTHEWS, Josh (Liberal Democrat)
SLADE, Mark (Green)
SPENCER, Michael David (Conservative)
SWEENEY, Niamh Marian (Labour)

2019: LD 1003; Lab 552; Grn 276; Con 171
2018: LD 1139; Lab 825; Con 165; Grn 164
2016: LD 939; Lab 787; Con 234; Grn 216
2015: LD 1387; Lab 1203; Grn 947; Con 700
2014: LD 1056; Lab 987; Grn 526; Con 395
2012: LD 917; Lab 641; Con 263; Grn 241
2011: LD 990; Lab 756; Con 621; Grn 443
2010: LD 1862; Con 994; Lab 648; Grn 642
2008: LD 870; Con 427; Grn 238; Lab 200
2007: LD 842; Con 489; Grn 300; Lab 246
2006: LD 974; Con 475; Lab 336; Grn 321
2004: LD 1018, 931, 904; Con 429, 411, 395; Grn 400, 282; Lab 317, 288, 279

The Green has stood here in every election since 2016 (including the 2017 county elections).

Current Council: Lab 26; LD 14; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE DC; Irthlingborough Waterloo (Con sitting as Lab resigned)
Candidates:
CROSS, Caroline (Labour)
WILKES, Lee Robert Charles (Conservative)

2015: Con 1054, 1043; Lab 671, 662; BNP 179
2011: Lab 594, 465; Con 542, 531; Ind 146
2007: Con 637, 529; Lab 432, 371

Caroline Cross was the top Labour candidate in 2015 and the unsuccessful one in 2011.

Current Council: Con 36; Ind 2; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



WORCESTER BC; Claines (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLCOTT,Mel (Liberal Democrat)
BENHAM, Jules (Conservative)
DENT, Stephen Mark (Green)
ISLAM, Saiful (Labour)

2019: Con 1252; LD 1157; Grn 245; Lab 145; UKIP 137
2018: Con 1155; LD 1093; Lab 417; Grn 147; UKIP 42
2016: Con 971; LD 734; Lab 453; UKIP 261; Grn 178
2015: Con 2115; LD 1056; Lab 866; UKIP 558; Grn 394
2014: Con 1054; LD 794; UKIP 509; Lab 379; Grn 206
2012: Con 1182; LD 1117; Grn 374
2011: LD 1313; Con 1296; Lab 490; Grn 247
2010: LD 2047; Con 1920; Lab 716; Grn 263
2008: LD 1551; Con 1005; Grn 195; Lab 171
2007: LD 1739; Con 985; Lab 246; Grn 210
2006: LD 1649; Con 1067; Lab 253; Grn 209
2004: LD 1709, 1581, 1399; Con 1228, 1165, 1138; Lab 535

The Lib Dem has been runner up here in every election since 2014. The Green and Labour candidates also stood here this May.

Current Council: Con 16; Lab 15; Grn 3; 1 vacancy

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 17, 2019 20:53:25 GMT Tony Otim said:

WORCESTER BC; Claines (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLCOTT,Mel (Liberal Democrat)
BENHAM, Jules (Conservative)
DENT, Stephen Mark (Green)
ISLAM, Saiful (Labour)

2019: Con 1252; LD 1157; Grn 245; Lab 145; UKIP 137
2018: Con 1155; LD 1093; Lab 417; Grn 147; UKIP 42
2016: Con 971; LD 734; Lab 453; UKIP 261; Grn 178
2015: Con 2115; LD 1056; Lab 866; UKIP 558; Grn 394
2014: Con 1054; LD 794; UKIP 509; Lab 379; Grn 206
2012: Con 1182; LD 1117; Grn 374
2011: LD 1313; Con 1296; Lab 490; Grn 247
2010: LD 2047; Con 1920; Lab 716; Grn 263
2008: LD 1551; Con 1005; Grn 195; Lab 171
2007: LD 1739; Con 985; Lab 246; Grn 210
2006: LD 1649; Con 1067; Lab 253; Grn 209
2004: LD 1709, 1581, 1399; Con 1228, 1165, 1138; Lab 535

The Lib Dem has been runner up here in every election since 2014. The Green and Labour candidates also stood here this May.

Current Council: Con 16; Lab 15; Grn 3; 1 vacancy

The Tories could really have done without a by-election in the Lib Dems' target seat, particularly when (a) it was really close last time, and (b) the Lib Dem candidate will have some name recognition.

[olympian95]

I was in Cambridge (walking to Grantchester) today and saw quite a few LD posters and stakebords. Saw two labour posters.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Newnham is one of the student wards (I was a voter there when I was at Cambridge) but isn't dominated by the undergraduates and colleges, so the turnout won't be so greatly affected by happening outside of term. Having said that it's generally very connected with the university, even the permanent housing.

If there was any council housing there I never found it. The census figure for council tenants is the lowest in Cambridge. Although Labour have been competitive occasionally it's mostly through students. (Should I say that Ewan McGaughey who nearly won in 2015 and 2016 had moved from being one of my constituents in Westminster?)

[timrollpickering]

Here are the current boundaries (pink). The county division boundaries (black) are very similar so added as well:

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There have been a few housing developments in west Cambridge which increased the residential population.

Actually the boundary changes in May added a lot more colleges - it used only to include Catz, Queens' and King's on the east side of the Cam, but now it goes all the way up to St John's. So actually the student content is a bit more than I thought.

[carolus]

Aug 4, 2019 21:10:48 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

There have been a few housing developments in west Cambridge which increased the residential population.

Actually the boundary changes in May added a lot more colleges - it used only to include Catz, Queens' and King's on the east side of the Cam, but now it goes all the way up to St John's. So actually the student content is a bit more than I thought.

I think this might be a misread of the map. I'm fairly sure everything north of Kings is still in Castle.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 4, 2019 21:15:25 GMT carolus said:

Aug 4, 2019 21:10:48 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

There have been a few housing developments in west Cambridge which increased the residential population.

Actually the boundary changes in May added a lot more colleges - it used only to include Catz, Queens' and King's on the east side of the Cam, but now it goes all the way up to St John's. So actually the student content is a bit more than I thought.

I think this might be a misread of the map. I'm fairly sure everything north of Kings is still in Castle.

It's not a misread of the map, but of the date - the boundary changes don't take place until May 2020 (when there will be an all out council election). So bad luck St John's, Trinity, Tit Hall, Caius, and Clare - you don't get a vote this time.

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 4, 2019 19:19:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Newnham is one of the student wards (I was a voter there when I was at Cambridge) but isn't dominated by the undergraduates and colleges, so the turnout won't be so greatly affected by happening outside of term. Having said that it's generally very connected with the university, even the permanent housing.

If there was any council housing there I never found it. The census figure for council tenants is the lowest in Cambridge. Although Labour have been competitive occasionally it's mostly through students. (Should I say that Ewan McGaughey who nearly won in 2015 and 2016 had moved from being one of my constituents in Westminster?)

When I was a councillor in Sheffield, the only council housing in Hallam outside Lodge Moor was a tiny block in Ecclesall and was grouped with the TARA that I was a councillor-member of in Walkley!

[ricmk]

Aug 4, 2019 19:19:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Newnham is one of the student wards (I was a voter there when I was at Cambridge) but isn't dominated by the undergraduates and colleges, so the turnout won't be so greatly affected by happening outside of term. Having said that it's generally very connected with the university, even the permanent housing.

If there was any council housing there I never found it. The census figure for council tenants is the lowest in Cambridge. Although Labour have been competitive occasionally it's mostly through students. (Should I say that Ewan McGaughey who nearly won in 2015 and 2016 had moved from being one of my constituents in Westminster?)

Snap! I think my first ever local vote may have been in this ward.  I was at Selwyn, where were you? Would we have been there at the same time?

[andrew111]

Strange how random threads throw up coincidences. I grew up in Ecclesall and spent 6 years at John's College Cambridge.

[andrew111]

Aug 5, 2019 6:11:38 GMT andrew111 said:

Strange how random threads throw up coincidences. I grew up in Ecclesall and spent 6 years at John's College Cambridge.

Also my first ever general election vote was in Cambridge for the SDP in 1983, having been in Ontario in 1979.
Cambridge is one of the seats that has been held by 3 Parties in my lifetime and I wonder if university seats are unusually volatile in this regard (Hallam and Leeds NW being other examples)?

[Chris from Brum]

Aug 5, 2019 7:50:07 GMT andrew111 said:

Aug 5, 2019 6:11:38 GMT andrew111 said:

Strange how random threads throw up coincidences. I grew up in Ecclesall and spent 6 years at John's College Cambridge.

Also my first ever general election vote was in Cambridge for the SDP in 1983, having been in Ontario in 1979.
Cambridge is one of the seats that has been held by 3 Parties in my lifetime and I wonder if university seats are unusually volatile in this regard (Hallam and Leeds NW being other examples)?

Sounds like you were at Johns at the same time as my bro, who is of similar political inclination to me.  PM to discuss?

[andrew111]

Aug 4, 2019 22:40:34 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Aug 4, 2019 19:19:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Newnham is one of the student wards (I was a voter there when I was at Cambridge) but isn't dominated by the undergraduates and colleges, so the turnout won't be so greatly affected by happening outside of term. Having said that it's generally very connected with the university, even the permanent housing.

If there was any council housing there I never found it. The census figure for council tenants is the lowest in Cambridge. Although Labour have been competitive occasionally it's mostly through students. (Should I say that Ewan McGaughey who nearly won in 2015 and 2016 had moved from being one of my constituents in Westminster?)

When I was a councillor in Sheffield, the only council housing in Hallam outside Lodge Moor was a tiny block in Ecclesall and was grouped with the TARA that I was a councillor-member of in Walkley!

I am about 75% sure that my eldest brother got a council house in Ringinglow village when he was first married. Since there are only about 10 houses altogether there it was not exactly an estate! I was a teenager at the time and not paying much attention to such things though..

[matureleft]

Aug 4, 2019 19:19:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Newnham is one of the student wards (I was a voter there when I was at Cambridge) but isn't dominated by the undergraduates and colleges, so the turnout won't be so greatly affected by happening outside of term. Having said that it's generally very connected with the university, even the permanent housing.

If there was any council housing there I never found it. The census figure for council tenants is the lowest in Cambridge. Although Labour have been competitive occasionally it's mostly through students. (Should I say that Ewan McGaughey who nearly won in 2015 and 2016 had moved from being one of my constituents in Westminster?)

I think some houses in Kings Road and Selwyn Road were originally council. However you can imagine that the right to buy thinned those out very rapidly. I'd be surprised if there were any left there now.

Newnham was (normally narrowly) held by Labour in almost all years that I was active (late 1970s to early 1990s). This was normally achieved by fielding senior retired academics - Ruth Cohen, Violet Cane - or extremely well-connected women - Gwyneth Lipstein (before she left for the SDP) and Wendy (later Baroness) Nicol. Robert Edwards of test-tube baby fame was also a Labour councillor in the 1970s. Almost all Labour candidates were women. 1997 appeared to be the break point when the Lib Dems assumed dominance and the boundary changes in 2004 seemed to entrench that (although the coalition period predictably narrowed the gap).

The residential areas are among the wealthiest in a (broadly - there are plenty of exceptions) pretty affluent city. However I was always told that the impressiveness of the home gave no indications of voting intentions...!

[tonygreaves]

It's the kind of place that gets excessive representation in the Lords. One of my colleagues is Baroness Smith of Newnham (not that Julie is not an excellent peer!)

[Khunanup]

Aug 5, 2019 7:50:07 GMT andrew111 said:

Aug 5, 2019 6:11:38 GMT andrew111 said:

Strange how random threads throw up coincidences. I grew up in Ecclesall and spent 6 years at John's College Cambridge.

Also my first ever general election vote was in Cambridge for the SDP in 1983, having been in Ontario in 1979.
Cambridge is one of the seats that has been held by 3 Parties in my lifetime and I wonder if university seats are unusually volatile in this regard (Hallam and Leeds NW being other examples)?

Portsmouth South...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Hornsey and Wood Green springs to mind as another tripartite constituency (Conservative up to 1992) as is whichever seat is designated the successor to Falmouth and Camborne. There are quite a few in Scotland due to the SNP rise.

Someone should do a full list.

[iain]

Also Manchester Withington, Plymouth Moor View (I assume is the closest fit), Bristol West, Brighton Pavilion, Bradford East/North, Colne Valley, Norwich South, Birmingham Yardley, Ynys Mon

[finsobruce]

Aug 7, 2019 16:22:56 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Hornsey and Wood Green springs to mind as another tripartite constituency (Conservative up to 1992) as is whichever seat is designated the successor to Falmouth and Camborne. There are quite a few in Scotland due to the SNP rise.

Someone should do a full list.

What time frame are we working with here?