The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 13, 2019 10:30:07 GMT
I think you mean 2015 there, 2005 was a pretty good LibDem year in Cambridge  Yes, the 15% swing was to David Howarth in 2005. Ah, misread what he was saying (sorry!) The scale of the LibDem win there in 2005 did take a few by surprise, and of course Labour dropped to third place in 2010. Pretty remarkable to consider now. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2019 12:36:17 GMT
Given the 15% swing from Lab to Lib Dem in 2005 I don't think Labour can afford to be complacent in Cambridge I think you mean 2015 there, 2005 was a pretty good LibDem year in Cambridge Of course it was, that is why I am comparing it with 2019. 2015 was a good year for Labour relative to the Lib Dems, including in Cambridge, but i dont see why Labour would want to recall it in general.. Cambridge is a volatile seat, with swings often bigger than the National average.... Perhaps you think Labour should be complacent in Cambridge. Good plan 👍 |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 13, 2019 13:39:40 GMT
I think you mean 2015 there, 2005 was a pretty good LibDem year in Cambridge Of course it was, that is why I am comparing it with 2019. 2015 was a good year for Labour relative to the Lib Dems, including in Cambridge, but i dont see why Labour would want to recall it in general.. Cambridge is a volatile seat, with swings often bigger than the National average.... Perhaps you think Labour should be complacent in Cambridge. Good plan 👍 I think if you read The Bishop ‘s previous post things explain themselves. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 13, 2019 22:27:10 GMT
Of course it was, that is why I am comparing it with 2019. 2015 was a good year for Labour relative to the Lib Dems, including in Cambridge, but i dont see why Labour would want to recall it in general.. Cambridge is a volatile seat, with swings often bigger than the National average.... Perhaps you think Labour should be complacent in Cambridge. Good plan 👍 I think if you read The Bishop ‘s previous post things explain themselves. Yes, i was guilty of posting without reading everything. Mea culpa. Lib Dems were very confident of winning Cambridge back when May called the election so if the National Campaign follows a similar path to 2017, I daresay Labour will hold the seat |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Aug 13, 2019 23:26:38 GMT
I think if you read The Bishop ‘s previous post things explain themselves. Yes, i was guilty of posting without reading everything. Mea culpa. Lib Dems were very confident of winning Cambridge back when May called the election so if the National Campaign follows a similar path to 2017, I daresay Labour will hold the seat No we weren’t. I distinctly remember people thinking we were going to lose Cambridge, despite it being a seat we ‘should’ have won at the beginning of the campaign. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 14, 2019 0:37:44 GMT
I think if you read The Bishop ‘s previous post things explain themselves. Yes, i was guilty of posting without reading everything. Mea culpa. Lib Dems were very confident of winning Cambridge back when May called the election so if the National Campaign follows a similar path to 2017, I daresay Labour will hold the seat I’ve got a friend in Cambridge, a non politically active but usually pretty savvy (except for being a Chelsea fan) Labour voter, who reckons it was Stephen Hawkins’ endorsement of Daniel Zeichner that was the game changer, perhaps more so in 2015, but to some degree in 17 as well. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 14, 2019 7:17:32 GMT
Yes, i was guilty of posting without reading everything. Mea culpa. Lib Dems were very confident of winning Cambridge back when May called the election so if the National Campaign follows a similar path to 2017, I daresay Labour will hold the seat I’ve got a friend in Cambridge, a non politically active but usually pretty savvy (except for being a Chelsea fan) Labour voter, who reckons it was Stephen Hawkins’ endorsement of Daniel Zeichner that was the game changer, perhaps more so in 2015, but to some degree in 17 as well. Stephen Hawking was a Labour party member and always spoke out for Labour. He appeared on a couple of PPB's. I don't see why it would have been different in 2015. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 14, 2019 8:54:28 GMT
Yes, i was guilty of posting without reading everything. Mea culpa. Lib Dems were very confident of winning Cambridge back when May called the election so if the National Campaign follows a similar path to 2017, I daresay Labour will hold the seat No we weren’t. I distinctly remember people thinking we were going to lose Cambridge, despite it being a seat we ‘should’ have won at the beginning of the campaign. Well, probably i should have said "almost universally predicted" The big loss of Lib Dem votes in Cambridge and other University seats such as Hallam and Leeds NW was a pattern which was clearly nothing to do with tuition fees, and did not reflect the very small national loss of % vote. In Yorkshire it could be attributed to regional effects, since the Lib Dem vote fell in more or less every constituency regardless of tactical situation or effort put in on the ground (balanced by an increase in many London and SE seats), but that does not so easily explain Cambridge, with the ex MP as the candidate.. Anecdotally i would say University lecturers mostly voted Labour in 2017, but in the EU election mostly Lib Dem or Green (including one I know who is normally Tory) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 15, 2019 13:59:12 GMT
No we weren’t. I distinctly remember people thinking we were going to lose Cambridge, despite it being a seat we ‘should’ have won at the beginning of the campaign. Well, probably i should have said "almost universally predicted" The big loss of Lib Dem votes in Cambridge and other University seats such as Hallam and Leeds NW was a pattern which was clearly nothing to do with tuition fees, and did not reflect the very small national loss of % vote. In Yorkshire it could be attributed to regional effects, since the Lib Dem vote fell in more or less every constituency regardless of tactical situation or effort put in on the ground (balanced by an increase in many London and SE seats), but that does not so easily explain Cambridge, with the ex MP as the candidate.. Anecdotally i would say University lecturers mostly voted Labour in 2017, but in the EU election mostly Lib Dem or Green (including one I know who is normally Tory) University lecturers- always either loony leftist or hilariously reactionary, generally depending on subject. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 15, 2019 14:15:34 GMT
Well, probably i should have said "almost universally predicted" The big loss of Lib Dem votes in Cambridge and other University seats such as Hallam and Leeds NW was a pattern which was clearly nothing to do with tuition fees, and did not reflect the very small national loss of % vote. In Yorkshire it could be attributed to regional effects, since the Lib Dem vote fell in more or less every constituency regardless of tactical situation or effort put in on the ground (balanced by an increase in many London and SE seats), but that does not so easily explain Cambridge, with the ex MP as the candidate.. Anecdotally i would say University lecturers mostly voted Labour in 2017, but in the EU election mostly Lib Dem or Green (including one I know who is normally Tory) University lecturers- always either loony leftist or hilariously reactionary, generally depending on subject. always? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 15, 2019 14:17:09 GMT
University lecturers- always either loony leftist or hilariously reactionary, generally depending on subject. always? There was a certain amount of unscientific assertion for comic effect there. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 15, 2019 14:28:46 GMT
Generalisations are bad.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 15, 2019 14:48:18 GMT
Meanwhile in Meole:
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Aug 15, 2019 14:57:06 GMT
Wrong thread, but not surprising. From experience, in weak areas for a party, the membership is usually not moderate at all. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 15, 2019 15:16:28 GMT
I think I might have gone along with "frequently" but "always" was more than I could stomach. I know a few university lecturers who are neither of those things, though they might be rare. I also wasn't sure about the correlation with subject either though I can see certain subjects have certain tendencies...
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 15, 2019 15:21:06 GMT
Wrong thread, but not surprising. From experience, in weak areas for a party, the membership is usually not moderate at all. It's only "Tribune". Or at least its latest incarnation after yet another hiatus. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 15, 2019 15:27:27 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 15, 2019 21:26:08 GMT
University lecturers- always either loony leftist or hilariously reactionary, generally depending on subject. always? Maybe at Oxford in 1950... |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 15, 2019 21:40:25 GMT
It won't be too busy in and around Barèges. Yes, you have avoided the Tour de France! I stayed a few days in La Mongie once. All the animals from the National Park have been relocated there into the "zone pastorale", which made it a little pungent.. Good walking though. I remember some enormous hail stones.. Indeed, summited on the Tourmelet this year. I have cycled the Tourmelet on the Barèges side (been down the La Mongie side to Bagnères a few times on a circuit) most recently remarkably recently (about three years ago). Not sure I could do it now. Climbed quite a lot of the local hills over the years. I think I'll be into valley walks this year. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 16, 2019 8:06:09 GMT
Yes, you have avoided the Tour de France! I stayed a few days in La Mongie once. All the animals from the National Park have been relocated there into the "zone pastorale", which made it a little pungent.. Good walking though. I remember some enormous hail stones.. Indeed, summited on the Tourmelet this year. I have cycled the Tourmelet on the Barèges side (been down the La Mongie side to Bagnères a few times on a circuit) most recently remarkably recently (about three years ago). Not sure I could do it now. Climbed quite a lot of the local hills over the years. I think I'll be into valley walks this year. I am very fond of Candanchu, just on the Spanish side of the Somport. Ski resort (but less ugly than La Mongie), empty in summer, fantastic open views, walks and climbs of all grades, and better weather than the French valleys. Bielsa is also really nice and the old town of Ainsa is a hidden gem. Since we are on this forum I will also mention Canfranc Estacion with possibly the most impressive station building in Europe... |
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