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Post by andrew111 on Aug 7, 2019 17:25:15 GMT
Hornsey and Wood Green springs to mind as another tripartite constituency (Conservative up to 1992) as is whichever seat is designated the successor to Falmouth and Camborne. There are quite a few in Scotland due to the SNP rise. Someone should do a full list. Interesting. Is it the demographics of Hornsey and Wood Green that has changed so dramatically (including some boundary changes) or the demographics of the Labour and Tory voters, or both? (I will readily admit i know nothing about that part of London) |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 7, 2019 17:36:12 GMT
Hornsey and Wood Green springs to mind as another tripartite constituency (Conservative up to 1992) as is whichever seat is designated the successor to Falmouth and Camborne. There are quite a few in Scotland due to the SNP rise. Someone should do a full list. Interesting. Is it the demographics of Hornsey and Wood Green that has changed so dramatically (including some boundary changes) or the demographics of the Labour and Tory voters, or both? (I will readily admit i know nothing about that part of London) You rang? 
The old Hornsey seat was never Labour but Labour came very close in 1966 (and also note the interesting 1945 result which we have discussed several times on this Forum). Apart from Highgate ward (and we've come close there too) all the previously unwinnable wards in the West have been Labour at some point in the last thirty years).
The bigger change is probably in the Wood Green part of the seat. When a separate constituency it was a marginal, even once then suburban Palmers Green was removed. When I came onto the council all the Wood Green wards were split and the Tories could easily have won all of them (you can add the now Tottenham ward of White Hart Lane to that too). This is now unthinkable. A large part of this is clearly down to demographic change, but also the leftward shift of the middle classes and (you knew i was getting there ) the rise of the Lib Dems which has been, in part at least, predicated on "The Tories can't win here, vote for us to defeat Labour".
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Post by greenhert on Aug 7, 2019 19:38:15 GMT
Interesting. Is it the demographics of Hornsey and Wood Green that has changed so dramatically (including some boundary changes) or the demographics of the Labour and Tory voters, or both? (I will readily admit i know nothing about that part of London) You rang?
The old Hornsey seat was never Labour but Labour came very close in 1966 (and also note the interesting 1945 result which we have discussed several times on this Forum). Apart from Highgate ward (and we've come close there too) all the previously unwinnable wards in the West have been Labour at some point in the last thirty years).
The bigger change is probably in the Wood Green part of the seat. When a separate constituency it was a marginal, even once then suburban Palmers Green was removed. When I came onto the council all the Wood Green wards were split and the Tories could easily have won all of them (you can add the now Tottenham ward of White Hart Lane to that too). This is now unthinkable. A large part of this is clearly down to demographic change, but also the leftward shift of the middle classes and (you knew i was getting there ) the rise of the Lib Dems which has been, in part at least, predicated on "The Tories can't win here, vote for us to defeat Labour".
Hornsey also came close to electing a Labour MP in October 1974, the margin being just 782 votes (1.9%). The Hornsey part has also undergone substantial demographic change, and similar changes have happened in Manchester Withington, Leeds North West, and Bristol West (even accounting for boundary changes in the last case) at both parliamentary and ward level. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 7, 2019 19:38:51 GMT
Hornsey and Wood Green springs to mind as another tripartite constituency (Conservative up to 1992) as is whichever seat is designated the successor to Falmouth and Camborne. There are quite a few in Scotland due to the SNP rise. Someone should do a full list. What time frame are we working with here? I've looked at it since 1983 - see the trivia thread. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Aug 7, 2019 20:09:01 GMT
I think we’re at 10 seats which have voted for 3 different parties at the last 3 elections:
Portsmouth South; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock; Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk; Dumfries & Galloway; Aberdeen South; Gordon; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Ochil & South Perthshire; Stirling; East Renfrewshire
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Aug 7, 2019 22:06:52 GMT
Interesting. Is it the demographics of Hornsey and Wood Green that has changed so dramatically (including some boundary changes) or the demographics of the Labour and Tory voters, or both? (I will readily admit i know nothing about that part of London) You rang? The old Hornsey seat was never Labour but Labour came very close in 1966 (and also note the interesting 1945 result which we have discussed several times on this Forum). Apart from Highgate ward (and we've come close there too) all the previously unwinnable wards in the West have been Labour at some point in the last thirty years).
The bigger change is probably in the Wood Green part of the seat. When a separate constituency it was a marginal, even once then suburban Palmers Green was removed. When I came onto the council all the Wood Green wards were split and the Tories could easily have won all of them (you can add the now Tottenham ward of White Hart Lane to that too). This is now unthinkable. A large part of this is clearly down to demographic change, but also the leftward shift of the middle classes and (you knew i was getting there ) the rise of the Lib Dems which has been, in part at least, predicated on "The Tories can't win here, vote for us to defeat Labour".
Sorry for diverting this thread off track (well not really) but the mention of Hornsey takes me back to 1966. I was off on holidays with my parents to Lido di Jesolo near Venice. This was a Henry Lunn holiday with a flight to Luxembourg and coach travel to Italy via Innsbruck. The World Cup was underway and I had been to the North West Group Matches and the Quarter Final. We were due to depart from Heathrow one day after the Semi-Final between Portugal and England at Wembley and I had a ticket! We booked a nights stay at the Hornsey Arms (?). All went well including the Wembley match. The problem was that the mini-cab we had ordered failed to arrive. We arranged a replacement and made the flight with some hair raising driving. I still have fond memories of Hornsey from then. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Aug 7, 2019 23:31:13 GMT
East Dunbartonshire/Strathkelvin & Bearsden has had MPs from four parties since the 1980s.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 7, 2019 23:41:34 GMT
East Dunbartonshire/Strathkelvin & Bearsden has had MPs from four parties since the 1980s. Portsmouth South arguably fits that criteria. North Down has had MPs from three parties and an Independent since the 1990s (albeit that the Independent started off being elected as a party candidate; however her old party did then stand a candidate against her). See vote-2012.proboards.com/post/814758 |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Aug 8, 2019 1:18:07 GMT
East Dunbartonshire/Strathkelvin & Bearsden has had MPs from four parties since the 1980s. Portsmouth South arguably fits that criteria. North Down has had MPs from three parties and an Independent since the 1990s (albeit that the Independent started off being elected as a party candidate; however her old party did then stand a candidate against her). See vote-2012.proboards.com/post/814758I think in these cases it involved at least one of the constituency's MPs changing label. ED/S&B has elected different candidates from each of the four main Scottish parties. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 8, 2019 6:44:41 GMT
I think we’re at 10 seats which have voted for 3 different parties at the last 3 elections: Portsmouth South; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock; Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk; Dumfries & Galloway; Aberdeen South; Gordon; Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine; Ochil & South Perthshire; Stirling; East Renfrewshire Scotland is obviously a bit of a special case. Anywhere that was marginal between a couple of Parties before the SNP took over fits the bill. My original question was trying to get at whether there are some demographics that are more likely to switch their votes, less loyal. Perhaps the "rootless" middle class who move for work most often. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 8, 2019 6:50:46 GMT
Interesting. Is it the demographics of Hornsey and Wood Green that has changed so dramatically (including some boundary changes) or the demographics of the Labour and Tory voters, or both? (I will readily admit i know nothing about that part of London) You rang?
The old Hornsey seat was never Labour but Labour came very close in 1966 (and also note the interesting 1945 result which we have discussed several times on this Forum). Apart from Highgate ward (and we've come close there too) all the previously unwinnable wards in the West have been Labour at some point in the last thirty years).
The bigger change is probably in the Wood Green part of the seat. When a separate constituency it was a marginal, even once then suburban Palmers Green was removed. When I came onto the council all the Wood Green wards were split and the Tories could easily have won all of them (you can add the now Tottenham ward of White Hart Lane to that too). This is now unthinkable. A large part of this is clearly down to demographic change, but also the leftward shift of the middle classes and (you knew i was getting there ) the rise of the Lib Dems which has been, in part at least, predicated on "The Tories can't win here, vote for us to defeat Labour".
What I noticed was that when the Lib Dems disappeared it became very safe Labour, not back to Lab-Con marginal. I doubt if "Tories cant win here" actually turns people from Tory into Labour voters, although one should never ignore the social engineering power of the bar chart! Leeds NW is mentioned below: I know that seat quite well and if the Lib Dems went away I think it could easily go back to being a Lab-Con marginal. No way would Labour be getting 60+% there anyway.. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 8, 2019 7:40:14 GMT
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Post by matureleft on Aug 8, 2019 7:56:36 GMT
And the Newnham one is a good read. Ruth Cohen, who is referred to there, was an amazing woman. Her field was agricultural economics. "Does not suffer fools gladly" would be an understatement - I was fortunate to be a favourite of hers. I served with her on the Finance Panel. She demanded group meetings at 9.00 on a Sunday morning at her flat! She was also a member of the Development Control Committee and used to visit homes with planning applications on her bike, I was told. Householders must have had a shock. Her (humanist) memorial event was a lovely occasion. |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 8, 2019 9:09:18 GMT
WORCESTER BC; Claines (Con died) Candidates: ALLCOTT,Mel (Liberal Democrat) BENHAM, Jules (Conservative) DENT, Stephen Mark (Green) ISLAM, Saiful (Labour) 2019: Con 1252; LD 1157; Grn 245; Lab 145; UKIP 137 2018: Con 1155; LD 1093; Lab 417; Grn 147; UKIP 42 2016: Con 971; LD 734; Lab 453; UKIP 261; Grn 178 2015: Con 2115; LD 1056; Lab 866; UKIP 558; Grn 394 2014: Con 1054; LD 794; UKIP 509; Lab 379; Grn 206 2012: Con 1182; LD 1117; Grn 374 2011: LD 1313; Con 1296; Lab 490; Grn 247 2010: LD 2047; Con 1920; Lab 716; Grn 263 2008: LD 1551; Con 1005; Grn 195; Lab 171 2007: LD 1739; Con 985; Lab 246; Grn 210 2006: LD 1649; Con 1067; Lab 253; Grn 209 2004: LD 1709, 1581, 1399; Con 1228, 1165, 1138; Lab 535 The Lib Dem has been runner up here in every election since 2014. The Green and Labour candidates also stood here this May. Current Council: Con 16; Lab 15; Grn 3; 1 vacancy The Tories could really have done without a by-election in the Lib Dems' target seat, particularly when (a) it was really close last time, and (b) the Lib Dem candidate will have some name recognition. The Lib Dem candidate did not make any progress from 2018 to 2019 though.. And there is no Kipper this time. The Lab vote got squeezed, but the Green vote went up by 3 votes more than the Tory majority, so in this particular case it does seem to have been "vote Green get Tory" On the other hand there has been a big swing to Lib Dem in the national polls since May 2nd, so this will be an interesting result |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 8, 2019 9:12:24 GMT
Plus of course the extra effort that the LibDems often put in when there is a winnable byelection. I think they will be disappointed not to get this one tbh.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 8, 2019 9:22:15 GMT
Plus of course the extra effort that the LibDems often put in when there is a winnable byelection. I think they will be disappointed not to get this one tbh. They do, but this is the only ward in Worcester where they are competitive I think, so it may be the Tories who can focus more people on this occasion (if they can be bothered) This does have the look of a hard fought ward over several elections. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 8, 2019 9:46:41 GMT
Plus of course the extra effort that the LibDems often put in when there is a winnable byelection. I think they will be disappointed not to get this one tbh. My FB feed suggests that there has been plenty of effort devoted to it. Best of luck to Mel Allcott, particularly as it would get us back on the council for the first time in several years. |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 8, 2019 9:58:26 GMT
Plus of course the extra effort that the LibDems often put in when there is a winnable byelection. I think they will be disappointed not to get this one tbh. I think it would be very disappointing for the Lib Dem’s not to gain this one, although they were in a very good position to gain it in May and surprisingly didn’t. Most of the Lib Dem success in the 1990s and 2000s was down to 2 councillors - Liz Smith and Sue Askin though and the Tories often managed to hold the 3rd seat when neither of those 2 were up. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 8, 2019 10:38:57 GMT
North Down has had MPs from three parties and an Independent since the 1990s (albeit that the Independent started off being elected as a party candidate; however her old party did then stand a candidate against her). Technically they didn't put up one themselves but instead backed a candidate from the other half of the UCU-NF alliance. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Aug 8, 2019 18:56:50 GMT
You rang? The old Hornsey seat was never Labour but Labour came very close in 1966 (and also note the interesting 1945 result which we have discussed several times on this Forum). Apart from Highgate ward (and we've come close there too) all the previously unwinnable wards in the West have been Labour at some point in the last thirty years).
The bigger change is probably in the Wood Green part of the seat. When a separate constituency it was a marginal, even once then suburban Palmers Green was removed. When I came onto the council all the Wood Green wards were split and the Tories could easily have won all of them (you can add the now Tottenham ward of White Hart Lane to that too). This is now unthinkable. A large part of this is clearly down to demographic change, but also the leftward shift of the middle classes and (you knew i was getting there ) the rise of the Lib Dems which has been, in part at least, predicated on "The Tories can't win here, vote for us to defeat Labour".
Sorry for diverting this thread off track (well not really) but the mention of Hornsey takes me back to 1966. I was off on holidays with my parents to Lido di Jesolo near Venice. This was a Henry Lunn holiday with a flight to Luxembourg and coach travel to Italy via Innsbruck. The World Cup was underway and I had been to the North West Group Matches and the Quarter Final. We were due to depart from Heathrow one day after the Semi-Final between Portugal and England at Wembley and I had a ticket! We booked a nights stay at the Hornsey Arms (?). All went well including the Wembley match. The problem was that the mini-cab we had ordered failed to arrive. We arranged a replacement and made the flight with some hair raising driving. I still have fond memories of Hornsey from then. Interesting travel arrangements! It must have been a long coach journey from Luxembourg to Venice and back. All those people flying to Luxembourg but with no intention of actually visiting the place! |
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