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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 9, 2019 17:02:44 GMT
There appear to be 1252 votes in Claines Ward willing to vote Conservative this year.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Aug 9, 2019 17:31:27 GMT
There appear to be 1252 votes in Claines Ward willing to vote Conservative this year. Which is usually enough to win! |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 9, 2019 22:00:50 GMT
Not if the Liberal gets more than that.
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 9, 2019 22:57:32 GMT
Cambridge, Newnham - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2017 * | since 2016 | since 2015 | Liberal Democrat | 774 | 59.5% | +9.4% | +9.8% | +8.3% | +16.3% | +26.8% | Labour | 235 | 18.1% | -9.5% | -17.9% | -10.1% | -18.1% | -10.3% | Green | 149 | 11.5% | -2.3% | +4.3% | +3.4% | +1.5% | -10.9% | Conservative | 143 | 11.0% | +2.5% | +3.8% | -1.5% | +0.2% | -5.5% | Total votes | 1,301 |
| 65% | 57% | 55% | 60% | 31% |
* County Council elections on similar boundaries. Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 9½% since May, 13¾% since 2018, 9¼% since 2017 County Council elections, 17¼% since 2016 and 18½% since 2015 Council now 26 Labour, 15 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent East Northamptonshire, Irthingborough Waterloo - Conservative hold | Party | 2019 votes | 2019 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Conservative | 542 | 53.1% | -2.2% | -2.2% | +10.9% | +8.9% | Labour | 478 | 46.9% | +11.6% | +11.7% | +0.5% | +3.2% | BNP |
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| -9.4% | -9.5% |
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| Independent |
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| -11.4% | -12.0% | Total votes | 1,020 |
| 54% | 54% | 80% | 84% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 7% since 2015 but Labour to Conservative ~ 5¼% / 2¾% since 2011 Council now 37 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 labour Worcester, Claines - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2019 B votes | 2019 B share | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat | 1,307 | 47.6% | +8.2% | +9.4% | +19.4% | +26.5% | Conservative | 1,251 | 45.6% | +3.0% | +5.1% | +8.2% | +3.2% | Green | 125 | 4.6% | -3.8% | -0.6% | -2.3% | -3.3% | Labour | 60 | 2.2% | -2.8% | -12.4% | -15.3% | -15.2% | UKIP |
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| -4.7% | -1.5% | -10.1% | -11.2% | Total votes | 2,743 |
| 93% | 96% | 106% | 55% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 2½% since May, 2¼% since 2018, 5½% since 2016 and 11¾% since 2015
Council now 16 Conservative, 15 Labour, 3 Green, 1 Liberal Democrat
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 10, 2019 9:24:20 GMT
The comments beneath this provide some excellent material for the ASI thread  |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 10, 2019 11:02:02 GMT
Surely the Worcester result is a 2.9% swing from Labour to Con? <hides>
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 10, 2019 11:17:11 GMT
The comments beneath this provide some excellent material for the ASI thread Can we assume a direct transfer of tweeters from Guido Fawkes? |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 10, 2019 11:27:31 GMT
Surely the Worcester result is a 2.9% swing from Labour to Con? <hides> The Skibereen Eagle has its eye on you, Lord Greaves!   |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 10, 2019 20:25:31 GMT
Surely the Worcester result is a 2.9% swing from Labour to Con? <hides> The Skibereen Eagle has its eye on you, Lord Greaves! We should actually describe it as the Butler Swing. I could tell you about the day three or four years ago I was seriously stalked by a Golden Eagle in dazzling mist in the Uig Hills on the Isle of Lewis. But it would be a bit off topic. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 10, 2019 21:31:27 GMT
I like the idea of dazzling mist
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 11, 2019 6:40:14 GMT
I like the idea of dazzling mist So do I - and I know what he means having experienced the same... |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 11, 2019 7:03:03 GMT
I like the idea of dazzling mist So do I - and I know what he means having experienced the same... I commend the eastern ridge in North Morar around Sgurr Mór, Sgurr Breac, and Sgurr nam Meirleach. To be taken on a misty day with good equipment, not the least of which photographic. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 11, 2019 10:02:17 GMT
The turnout in May was 35.6% so it has fallen, but not by a massive amount. I remember there was a byelection out of term time in the Lancaster ward that's almost entirely students which had a comedy turnout - it was won with something like 100 votes. The self explanatory University ward, I believe. There was also IIRC an "out of term" Oxford byelection in the 2010-15 parliament that saw a single figure turnout - though not *quite* that in terms of voters |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 11, 2019 10:09:42 GMT
I like the idea of dazzling mist So do I - and I know what he means having experienced the same... I have seen a Brocken Spectre twice in my life. That is quite an experience.. Both times in the Pyrenees doing geology fieldwork.. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 11, 2019 20:36:20 GMT
Just once, in Scotland. I am however off to the Pyrenees in just over a week!
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 12, 2019 5:36:49 GMT
Just once, in Scotland. I am however off to the Pyrenees in just over a week! Have a good time! Busy place in August but I know some quiet spots |
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Post by tonygreaves on Aug 12, 2019 13:45:52 GMT
It won't be too busy in and around Barèges.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 12, 2019 16:47:41 GMT
It won't be too busy in and around Barèges. Yes, you have avoided the Tour de France! I stayed a few days in La Mongie once. All the animals from the National Park have been relocated there into the "zone pastorale", which made it a little pungent.. Good walking though. I remember some enormous hail stones.. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 13, 2019 10:21:09 GMT
In my experience most BNP voters are otherwise non-voters but (as always) it depends on the locality and the candidates. I noted that the Tory didn't live in the town whereas the Labour candidate was on the town council and had been standing in elections there (albeit unsuccessfully!) for some years. That might explain the better Labour performance in what was otherwise a pretty poor night.
I wouldn't have expected Labour to be in contention in Newnham but with the volume of Labour activists in the city I'd expect more effort to protect Labour votes for the forthcoming general election. In spite of the huge majority (in Cambridge terms) last time the demography of the seat and its overwhelming Remain lean would suggest a major Lib Dem push. Again, there might be local or candidate factors.
Given the 15% swing from Lab to Lib Dem in 2005 I don't think Labour can afford to be complacent in Cambridge I think you mean 2015 there, 2005 was a pretty good LibDem year in Cambridge |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 13, 2019 10:25:56 GMT
Given the 15% swing from Lab to Lib Dem in 2005 I don't think Labour can afford to be complacent in Cambridge I think you mean 2015 there, 2005 was a pretty good LibDem year in Cambridge Yes, the 15% swing was to David Howarth in 2005. |
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