Prediction Competition - July 2019

[middleenglander]

It looks like 15 by-elections during July:
- 4 on 4th July
- 2 on 11th
- 1 on 16th (Tuesday)
- 5 on 18th
- 3 on 25th

5 of the by-elections are for District Councils, one for a seat elected in May and one where the last election was in May
- along with one where the previous election was in 2018 and two in 2016
6 are in Unitary Authorities, three elected in May, one where the last election was in May and two elected in 2017
1 is for a London Borough elected in 2018 and
3 are for Welsh authorities last elected in 2017

Conservatives defend 6 seats, five following the death of the previous Councillor and one a resignation
Labour defend 3, one following a death and two resignations with one sitting as an Independent
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, two following a death and 1 a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following a death
Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation elected in May and
Its Our County defend 1 seat following a disqualification as not eligible to stand in May

With all nominations for the 15 seats declared:
Labour has 14 candidates, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats 13 each, Greens 4, UKIP 5, Plaid Cymru 3, Brexit 2 with 8 Independents contesting 5 seats
along with  1 Ashford Independent, 1 Communist, 1 For Britain, 1 Independent Union, 1 Its Our County, 1 Women's Equality, 1 Yorkshire and 1 No Description
- a total of 70 candidates for 15 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[Tony Otim]

Chorley: Con 65, Lab 35
Middlesbrough: James 58.1; Hill 26.5; Lab 8.4; LD 4.3; Con 2.7
Rhondda Cynon Taf: Lab 37.0; PC 28.2; LD 23.9; Con 8.2; Comm 2.7
Wiltshire: Con 40.8; LD 30.1; Ind 19.4; Lab 9.7

[johnloony]

Chorley: Con 62 Lab 38
Middlesbrough: IndJ 32 IndH 29 Lab 21 LD 11 Con 7
Rhondda: Lab 52 PC 29 LD 10 Con 6 Comm 3
Wilts: Con 50 LD 36 Lab 8 Ind 6

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CHORLEY Ecclestone and Mawdesley: C 69, Lab 31
MIDDLESBROUGH Park End and Beckfield: Ind James 56, Lab 19, C 10, Ind Hill 8, L Dem 7
RHONDDA CYNON TAF Rhondda: Lab 44, PC 34, C 11, L Dem 8, WCP 3
WILTSHIRE Trowbridge Drynham: L Dem 40, C 34, Ind 20, Lab 6

[Toylyyev]

Chorley BC, Eccleston & Mawdesley: Conservative 59, Labour 41.
Middlesbrough UA, Park End & Beckfield: Independent James 57, Independent Hill 18, Labour 13, Liberal Democrat 7, Conservative 5.
Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Rhondda: Labour 38, Plaid Cymru 30, Liberal Democrat 24, Conservative 6, Welsh Communist 2.
Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Drynham: Liberal Democrat 34, Conservative 32, Independent 24, Labour 10.

[Robert Waller]

CHORLEY Ecclestone and Mawdesley: C 61, Lab 39
MIDDLESBROUGH Park End and Beckfield: Ind James 26, Lab 15, C 2, Ind Hill 55, L Dem 2
RHONDDA CYNON TAF Rhondda: Lab 40, PC 34, C 8, L Dem 14, WCP 4
WILTSHIRE Trowbridge Drynham: L Dem 28, C 38, Ind 20, Lab 14

[robbienicoll]

Ecclestone and Mawdesley, Chorley: Con 58, Lab 42
Park End and Beckfield: Con 4, Lab 15, LD 3, Ind (Hill) 44, Ind (James) 34
Rhondda, Rhondda Cynon Taf: Con 12, Lab 37, LD 17, PC 32, WCP 2
Trowbridge Drynham, Wiltshire: Con 55, Lab 18, LD 21, Ind 6

[yellowperil]

Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: Con 61, Lab 39
Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield: Con 3,Lab 18, L.D 2,  Ind James 52, Ind Hill 25
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda: Con 9, Lab 38. LD 10, PC 40, Comm 3
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham : Con 36. Lab 8, LD 38, Ind 18

[Deleted]

Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: Con 62, Lab 38
Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield: Con 5,Lab 15, L.D 5, Ind James 45, Ind Hill 30
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda: Con 5, Lab 30. LD 15, PC 45, Comm 5
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham : Con 30. Lab 5, LD 45, Ind 20

[iainbhx]

Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: Con 60 Lab 40
Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield: Ind (James) 44 Ind (Hill) 28 Lab 18 Con 8 LDm 2
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda: PC 42 Lab 39 Con 13 Comm 4 LDm 2
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham: Con 39 LDm 29 Ind 22 Lab 10

[Right Leaning]

Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: Con 62, Lab 38
Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield: Ind (James) 49, Ind (Hill) 26, Lab 17, Con 5, LD 3
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda: PC 43, Lab 39, Con 12, LD 4, Comm 2
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham: LD 38, Con 34, Ind 21, Lab 7

[andrewp]

Chorley, Eccleston and Mawdesley Con 63, Lab 37
Middlesbrough, Park End and Beckfield Ind James 56, Ind Hill 21, Lab 14, LD 6, Con 3
Rhondda, Cynon, Taff, Rhondda Lab 50, PC 34, Con 7, Lib Dem 7, Comm 2
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham Lib Dem 35, Ind 27, Con 26, Lab 12

[ricmk]

My predictions are already on the beach topping up their tan. Have a good month everyone.

[olympian95]

Chorley: Con 61, Lab 39

Middlesbrough: Ind (James) 46, Ind (Hill) 28, Lab 14, Con 7, LD 5


Rhondda: Lab 44, PC 36, LD 9, Con 6, WC 5

Wiltshire: Con 39, LD 26, Lab 19, Ind 16

[greenhert]

Chorley: Conservative 57, Labour 43.
Middlesbrough: Independent (James) 50, Independent (Hill) 22, Labour 15, Conservative 9,, Liberal Democrats 4.
Rhondda: Labour 45, Plaid Cymru 40, Liberal Democrats 7, Conservative 5, Communist 3.
Wiltshire: Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 30, Labour 20, Independent 10.

[middleenglander]

13 entrants with Olympian95 present but ricmk taking an unauthorised holiday in term time.

Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: 100% Conservative hold with share from 57% (greenrobinhood) to 69% (David Boothroyd)
Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield: 11 Independent James wins, robbienicoll & Robert Waller Independent Hill wins
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda: 9 Labour holds, iainbhx, priceofdawn, Right Leaning & Yellow Peril Plaid Cymru gain
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham: 7 Conservative hold, andrewp, David Boothroyd, priceofdawn, Right Leaning, Toylyyev & Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat gain

[yellowperil]

Jul 4, 2019 20:13:25 GMT middleenglander said:

13 entrants with Olympian95 present but ricmk taking an unauthorised holiday in term time.

Chorley, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: 100% Conservative hold with share from 57% (greenrobinhood) to 69% (David Boothroyd)
Middlesbrough, Park End & Beckfield: 11 Independent James wins, robbienicoll & Robert Waller Independent Hill wins
Rhondda Cynon Taf, Rhondda: 9 Labour holds, iainbhx, priceofdawn, Right Leaning & Yellow Peril Plaid Cymru gain
Wiltshire, Trowbridge Drynham: 7 Conservative hold, andrewp, David Boothroyd, priceofdawn, Right Leaning, Toylyyev & Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat gain

Are you going to fine his parents?

[yellowperil]

Well that was fun, wasn't it? Another game of pick the wrong independent, and only Robert and Robbie calling it right, sure separates the men from the boys, while just about everybody got a wrong winner somewhere. Thank the Lord for Chorley- one of the most predictable places around anyway, and a two horse race with the Tory widow defending her husband's seat against Labour only- we all managed to predict that one, and for some it was all they got right all night. I was quite pleased to get the two party gains of the night right- both the LD win over Con in Trowbridge and the PC one over Labour in Rhondda, which compensated a bit for the mess-up in Middlesbrough. My rough calculation gives the night as a whole to @priceofdawn followed by Right Leaning , with Robert Waller tucked in close behind after Middlesbrough saved him, and I think I might be something like best of the rest. But in due course middleenglander will tell me I've got it all wrong...

and half an hour later we get the official results which suggest I was partly right, but I had slightly underestimated Robert's power of recovery ( not for the first time) and I see he's in second ahead of RL. Looks as though best of the rest for me was spot on though.

Congrats to POD though on a really excellent week - always going out on a limb with the brave option, so when it comes off it's richly deserved.

[middleenglander]

Week 1

Authority	Chorley	Middlesbrough	Rhondda      Cynon Taf	Wiltshire	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Ecclestone &    Mawdesley	Park End & Beckfield	Rhondda	Trowbridge     Drynham	faults	position
andrewp	0.4	63.9+10	44.8+10	22.1	151.2	6th
David Boothroyd	11.6	89.9+10	34.8+10	10.6	166.9	10th
greenrobinhood	12.4	61.9+10	36.8+10	50.6+10	191.7	13th
iainbhx	6.4	49.9+10	26.8	28.6+10	131.7	5th
John Loony	2.4	47.9+10	50.8+10	46.6+10	177.7	12th
Olympian95	4.4	49.9+10	38.8+10	46.6+10	169.7	11th
priceofdawn	2.4	45.9+10	20.2	8.4	86.9	1st
Right Leaning	2.4	53.9+10	24.7	12.6	103.6	3rd
robbienicoll	10.4	17.9	26.4+10	76.6+10	151.3	7th
Robert Waller	4.4	11.6	30.4+10	34.6+10	100.9	2nd
Tony Otim	3.6	59.9+10	41.6+10	31.6+10	166.7	9th
Toylyyev	8.4	69.9+10	42.4+10	15.1	155.8	8th
Yellow Peril	4.4	55.9+10	22.8	18.6	111.7	4th
Total	73.9	678.5+110	441.4+90	402.3+70	1,866.0

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 2 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

We are away for a few days break next week.  It may be Saturday before the official results are published. 

[andrewp]

Jul 5, 2019 4:50:17 GMT yellowperil said:

Well that was fun, wasn't it? Another game of pick the wrong independent, and only Robert and Robbie calling it right, sure separates the men from the boys, while just about everybody got a wrong winner somewhere. Thank the Lord for Chorley- one of the most predictable places around anyway, and a two horse race with the Tory widow defending her husband's seat against Labour only- we all managed to predict that one, and for some it was all they got right all night. I was quite pleased to get the two party gains of the night right- both the LD win over Con in Trowbridge and the PC one over Labour in Rhondda, which compensated a bit for the mess-up in Middlesbrough. My rough calculation gives the night as a whole to @priceofdawn followed by Right Leaning , with Robert Waller tucked in close behind after Middlesbrough saved him, and I think I might be something like best of the rest. But in due course middleenglander will tell me I've got it all wrong...

Yes particularly well done to Robert and Robbie for picking the other Independent in Middlesbrough. Genuinely surprised about that one. Thank goodness for boring old Chorley! 
I wasn't at all surprised by Trowbridge- the deceased Conservative had been a councillor for 30 years and clearly was very popular and add in a discontented Conservative who didn’t get the party selection standing as an Independent.