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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 17, 2019 22:53:35 GMT
Ashford, Downs North: Con 34, Lab 5, LD 15, Green 10, UKIP 3, AI 28, Ind 5.
Ceredigion, Llanbadarn Fawr: Lab 8,LD 20, PC 72
Daventry, Brixworth: Con 55, Lab 21, LD 24
Richmond, East Sheen:Con 38, Lab 4, LD 55, WEP 3
Wiltshire, Westbury N: Con 18, Lab 8, LD 57, Ind C 12 Ind M 5
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 17, 2019 23:29:24 GMT
ASHFORD Downs North: Ash Ind 33, C 27, L Dem 20, GP 9, Lab 5, Ind 4, UKIP 2
CEREDIGION Llanbadarn Fawr - Sulien: PC 70, L Dem 20, Lab 10
DAVENTRY Brixworth: L Dem 45, C 39, Lab 16
RICHMOND-UPON-THAMES East Sheen: L Dem 54, C 34, WEP 7, Lab 5
WILTSHIRE Westbury North: Ind Cunningham 41, L Dem 30, C 17, Lab 7, Ind Morland 5
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 17, 2019 23:42:54 GMT
Downs North, Ashford: Con 32, Lab 8, LD 9, Green 10, UKIP 2, AI 33, Ind 6
Llanbadarn Fawr, Ceredigion: Lab 5, LD 20, PC 75
Brixworth, Daventry: Con 55, Lab 20, LD 25
East Sheen, Richmond-upon-Thames: Con 33, Lab 4, LD 60, WEP 3
Westbury North, Wiltshire: Con 21, Lab 12, LD 59, Ind (Cunningham) 3, Ind (Morland) 5
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 18, 2019 0:56:34 GMT
Ashford BC, Downs North: Conservative 29, Green 23, Ashford Independent 18, Independent 12, Liberal Democrat 12, Labour 3, UKIP 3.
Ceredigion UA, Llanbadarn Fawr, Sulien: Plaid Cymru 76, Liberal Democrat 18, Labour 6.
Daventry DC, Brixworth: Liberal Democrats 39, Conservative 38, Labour 23.
Richmond-upon-Thames LB, East Sheen: Liberal Democrat 62, Conservative 30, Labour 5, Women’s Equality Party 3.
Wiltshire UA, Westbury North: Liberal Democrat 38, Independent Cunningham 25, Conservative 18, Independent Morland 14, Labour 5.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 18, 2019 5:55:19 GMT
Downs North (Ashford): Con 32 Ashford Ind 20 Grn 19 LDm 15 Lab 6 Ind 5 UKIP 3
Llanbadarn Fawr- Sulien (Ceredigion): PC 68 LDm 21 Lab 11
Brixworth (Daventry) : Con 45 LDm 28 Lab 27
East Sheen (Richmond): LDm 52 Con 40 Lab 6 WEP 2
Westbury North (Wiltshire): Ind Cunningham 36 LDm 33 Con 19 Lab 9 Ind Morland 3
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 18, 2019 6:43:01 GMT
Ashford, Downs North. Con 28, Ash Ind 22, Lib Dem 17, Ind Williams 16, Green 8, Lab 6, UKIP 3
Ceredigion, Llanbadarn Fawr Sulien Plaid Cymru 73, Lib Dem 21, Lab 6
Daventry, Brixworth. Lib Dem 41, Con 40, Lab 19
Richmond, East Shen Lib Dem 58, Con 35: Lab 5, Wep 2
Wiltshire, Westbury North Lib Dem 45, Ind Cunningham 28, Con 13, Ind Moreland 8, Lab 6
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Post by Right Leaning on Jul 18, 2019 6:46:25 GMT
Ashford, Downs North: C 37, Ashford Ind 26, LD 14, Grn 9, Lab 5, UKIP 5, Ind 4.
Ceredigion, Llanbadarn Fawr: PC 67, LD 24, Lab 9.
Daventry, Brixworth: C 53, LD 27, Lab 20.
Richmond, East Sheen: LD 53, C 39, Lab 6, WEP 2.
Wiltshire, Westbury N: LD 55, Ind C 17, C 16, Lab 9, Ind M 3.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 18, 2019 7:19:05 GMT
For Next Week (as I'm going away for a few weeks): Gloucester, Barnwood: LD 32.4; Con 30.8; Brx 17.2; Lab 9.5; UKIP 5.5; Grn 4.6 Gloucester, Podsmead: Lab 31.2; Con 28.4; Brx 20.8; LD 11.2; UKIP 5.5; Grn 2.9Hartlepool: Ind Union 61.0; Lab 23.8; UKIP 8.8; For Britain 4.1; Grn 2.3 FWIW I think we'll do better than that in Podsmead, and Labour worse. Quite possibly- I didn't have a lot to go on for the Gloucester ones, so they're basically stabs in the dark ... |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 7:27:18 GMT
Ashford, Downs North. Con 30, Ash Ind 29, Lib Dem 24, Ind Williams 12, Green 9, Lab 4, UKIP 3
Ceredigion, Llanbadarn Fawr Sulien Plaid Cymru 74, Lib Dem 19, Lab 7
Daventry, Brixworth. Lib Dem 25, Con 60, Lab 15
Richmond, East Shen Lib Dem 60, Con 33: Lab 5, Wep 2
Wiltshire, Westbury North Lib Dem 45, Ind Cunningham 25, Con 15, Ind Moreland 10, Lab 5
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 18, 2019 9:11:22 GMT
Interesting that Yellowperil has I think the highest Conservative share and lowest Lib Dem share in Ashford. 😀 We might all be bowing to local knowledge
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 18, 2019 20:54:00 GMT
Interesting that Yellowperil has I think the highest Conservative share and lowest Lib Dem share in Ashford. 😀 We might all be bowing to local knowledge Though I notice that quite often the predictor with local inside information does no better and sometimes worse than the outsiders- the "insider" did pretty well earlier in Cardiff, but it hasn't always happened - sometimes you overrate the local insights and can't see the broader picture. My thoughts were(1) it's a strongly Tory default area and I don't see a big local campaign from anyone to upset that,(2) the son replacing his deceased father story may play quite well in some quarters, (3) I'm not very impressed with what I have seen of the LD's campaigning abilities locally over the last few years - I did point out in my earlier post that the candidate had also managed to lose our last existing Borough seat in May. As a local member I note have received no communication about this by-election, the local party has however managed to email me about a jolly they are planning to celebrate George Koowaree's time in office. Priorities may be a bit askew. If there was any successful anti-Tory campaign it might have come from the Ashford Independent, the independent independent or the Green - I'm quite a way away from the ward, and rather preoccupied with other things, but certainly if there is a significant effort from any of them it has passed me by. Of course I could be pleasantly surprised in a few hours, but in that case I will also be absolutely astonished. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2019 20:58:55 GMT
Interesting that Yellowperil has I think the highest Conservative share and lowest Lib Dem share in Ashford. 😀 We might all be bowing to local knowledge [...] (2) the son replacing his diseased father story may play quite well in some quarters[...] "Diseased" sounds like he has been struck down by some particularly alarming form of Divine punishment. Deceased? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 18, 2019 21:03:57 GMT
Interesting that Yellowperil has I think the highest Conservative share and lowest Lib Dem share in Ashford. 😀 We might all be bowing to local knowledge Though I notice that quite often the predictor with local inside information does no better and sometimes worse than the outsiders- the "insider" did pretty well earlier in Cardiff, but it hasn't always happened - sometimes you overrate the local insights and can't see the broader picture. My thoughts were(1) it's a strongly Tory default area and I don't see a big local campaign from anyone to upset that,(2) the son replacing his diseased father story may play quite well in some quarters, (3) I'm not very impressed with what I have seen of the LD's campaigning abilities locally over the last few years - I did point out in my earlier post that the candidate had also managed to lose our last existing Borough seat in May. As a local member I note have received no communication about this by-election, the local party has however managed to email me about a jolly they are planning to celebrate George Koowaree's time in office. Priorities may be a bit askew. If there was any successful anti-Tory campaign it might have come from the Ashford Independent, the independent independent or the Green - I'm quite a way away from the ward, and rather preoccupied with other things, but certainly if there is a significant effort from any of them it has passed me by. Of course I could be pleasantly surprised in a few hours, but in that case I will also be absolutely astonished. I did wonder if the Indy Indy might do well but it’s quite a crowded field. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 18, 2019 21:16:20 GMT
[...] (2) the son replacing his diseased father story may play quite well in some quarters[...] "Diseased" sounds like he has been struck down by some particularly alarming form of Divine punishment. Deceased? Oops! That was what I meant to write and hadn't noticed how it came out! Will correct as it is a pretty unfortunate lapse, and don't want others to wince. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 18, 2019 21:17:31 GMT
14 entrants again with priceofdawn getting 11 additional faults for adding to 111% in Ashford, Downs North.
Ashford, Downs North: 11 Conservative hold, David Boothroyd & robbienicoll Ashford Independent gain, LDCaerdydd Liberal Democrat gain
Ceredigion, Llanbadarn Fawr: 100% Plaid Cymru hold with majority over Liberal Democrat from 43% (Right Leaning) to 59% (Yellow Peril)
Daventry, Brixworth: 11 Conservative hold, andrewp, David Boothroyd & Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain
Richmond-upon-Thames, Easdt Sheen: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, majority over Conservative from 12% (iainbhx) to 32% (Toylyyev)
Wiltshire, Westbury North: 12 Liberal Democrat hold, David Boothroyd & iainbhx Independent Cunningham gain
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 18, 2019 23:55:30 GMT
Week 3| Authority | Cardiff | Ashford | Ceredigion | Daventry | Richmond
upon Thames | Wiltshire | Week 3 | Week 3 | | Ward | Cyncoed
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Fawr | Brixworth | East Sheen | Westbury
North | faults | position | andrewp | 12.9 | 66.1 | 21.3 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 19.0 | 141.0 | 1st | David Boothroyd | 28.9 | 68.1+10 | 23.3 | 9.0 | 12.8 | 44.7+10 | 206.9 | 10th | | ElectionMapsUK | 16.9 | 32.1 | 13.3 | 43.0+10 | 7.7 | 43.6 | 166.6 | 4th | greenrobinhood | 100 | 46.9 | 23.5 | 39.0+10 | 11.7 | 39.6 | 270.6 | 14th | iainbhx | 10.9 | 36.1 | 21.3 | 43.0+10 | 15.7 | 38.7+10 | 185.7 | 7th | John Loony | 16.3+40 | 50.1 | 27.5 | 29.5+10 | 10.8 | 43.6 | 227.7 | 13th | Olympian95 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 600 |
| priceofdawn | 26.6 | 71.1+11 | 25.3 | 49.0+10 | 6.8 | 17.0 | 216.8 | 11th | Right Leaning | 12.6 | 44.9 | 15.3 | 45.0+10 | 13.7 | 15.6 | 157.0 | 3rd | robbienicoll | 16.9 | 61.0+10 | 23.5 | 49.0+10 | 5.0 | 43.6 | 219.0 | 12th | Robert Waller | 4.9 | 50.1 | 23.3 | 51.0+10 | 7.8 | 25.6 | 172.7 | 6th | Tony Otim | 23.3 | 54.3 | 17.5 | 67.4+10 | 11.4 | 22.2 | 206.2 | 8th | Toylyyev | 16.9 | 34.1 | 27.3 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 31.0 | 141.3 | 2nd | Yellow Peril | 10.9 | 46.2 | 13.5 | 35.0+10 | 9.8 | 41.6 | 167.0 | 5th | | LDCaerdydd | 8.9 | 58.1+10 | 33.3 | 33.0+10 | 8.8 | 44.6 | 206.8 | 9th | Total | 407.2+40 | 819.4+11+30 | 408.7 | 631.2+110 | 237.7 | 570.2+20 | 3,285.4 |
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Month to date results in the morning but it looks like andrewp, then Robert Waller, Right Leaning and Yellow Peril
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 19, 2019 3:58:01 GMT
Interesting that Yellowperil has I think the highest Conservative share and lowest Lib Dem share in Ashford. 😀 We might all be bowing to local knowledge He did indeed make the best call there with 8.8 points, ahead of rightleaning with 13 and Robert Waller with 17, which enables me to hereby bow to the best overall local expertise of the week and the month so far. I am however not able to explain how a heraldic link that made me hit this tale about the Red Lion Inn in Brixworth during the research and my knowledge of the train station in Ashford and the Marshlink line would have been enough to come within 0.3 points. But i can testify that it did rock and was slower than any Belgian train i know of. farm3.staticflickr.com/2258/3534713332_c51787703e_o.jpgEdit: On second thoughts it also did have quite a feel of an initiation rite about it. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 19, 2019 6:28:40 GMT
Congratulations to Andrew for the win on a pretty important week and for the new lead overall.For the four of us still under 400 for the month particularly, still all to play for, though. Think I overthought Downs North and so failed to make the most of home advantage there!
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 19, 2019 10:35:26 GMT
Weeks 1 to 3| Authority | Week 3 | Week 3 | Weeks 1 & 2 | Weeks 1 to 3 | Weeks 1 to 3 | | Ward | faults | position
| faults | faults | position | andrewp | 141.0 | 1st | 239.1 | 380.1 | 1st | David Boothroyd | 206.9 | 10th | 295.4 | 502.3 | 10th | | ElectionMapsUK | 166.6 | 4th | 463.1 | 629.7 | 13th | greenrobinhood | 270.6 | 14th | 313.6 | 584.3 | 12th | iainbhx | 185.7 | 7th | 247.4 | 433.1 | 7th | John Loony | 227.7 | 13th | 286.1 | 513.8 | 11th | | LDCaerdidd | 206.8 | 9th | 600 | 806.8 | 14th | Olympian95 | 600
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| 369.7 | 969.7 | 15th | priceofdawn | 216.8 | 11th | 207.8 | 424.6 | 6th | Right Leaning | 157.0 | 3rd | 236.1 | 393.2 | 3rd | robbienicoll | 219.0 | 12th | 266.1 | 485.1 | 9th | Robert Waller | 172.7 | 6th | 211.8 | 384.5 | 2nd | Tony Otim | 206.2 | 8th | 265.4 | 471.7 | 8th | Toylyyev | 141.3 | 2nd | 278.7 | 420.0 | 5th | Yellow Peril | 167.0 | 5th | 228.6 | 395.5 | 4th | Total | 3,285.4 |
| 4,509.0 | 7,794.4 |
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Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 3 by-elections next Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 23, 2019 13:31:35 GMT
Gloucester Barnwood : LD 40 Con 27 Brx 18 Lab 9 Grn 3 UKIP 3
Gloucester Podsmead: LD 38 Con 23 Lab 20 Brx 11 Grn 4 UKIP 4
Hartlepool: IU 52 Lab 23 UKIP 13 Grn 7 FB 5
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