Prediction Competition - July 2019

[iainbhx]

Hart (Hartlepool UA): IndUnion 51, Lab 31 ForBrit 7 Grn 6 UKIP 5
Podsmead (Gloucester BC): Con 36 Lab 27 LDm 17 Brx 14 Grn 5 UKIP 1
Barnwood (Gloucester BC): LDm 52 Con 23 Lab 11 Brx 10 Grn 3 UKIP 1

[Adam in Stroud]

Jul 24, 2019 19:11:42 GMT iainbhx said:

Hart (Hartlepool UA): IndUnion 51, Lab 31 ForBrit 7 Grn 6 UKIP 5
Podsmead (Gloucester BC): Con 36 Lab 27 LDm 17 Brx 14 Grn 5 UKIP 1
Barnwood (Gloucester BC): LDm 52 Con 23 Lab 11 Brx 10 Grn 3 UKIP 1

My contribution to the campaign has been a bit homeopathic, but from what I've seen we'll do better than that in Podsmead. I think Labour will probably be third. I think we've an outside chance of winning.

Either way, worth watching. It's quite a Brexity ward so respective performances of LD and BxP will be interesting.

[middleenglander]

Regret my computer has died. Will be sometime before I know whether it is fatal. I am unable to produce usual analyses until this is all sorted out.

[robbienicoll]

Hope everything is running smoothly soon middleenglander. I'm happy to run a spreadsheet for this week if that suits everyone else. 

Barnwood, Gloucester: Con 31, Lab 6, LD 45, Green 3, BXP 13, UKIP 2
Podsmead, Gloucester: Con 33, Lab 19, LD 22, Green 6, BXP 18, UKIP 2
Hart, Hartlepool: Lab 25, Green 5, UKIP 3, FB 2, IndU 65

[ElectionMapsUK]

Barnwood: LD 45, CON 28, BXP 14, LAB 7, GRN 5, UKIP 1
Podsmead: LDM 29, CON 26, LAB 22, BXP 18, GRN 4, UKIP 1
Hart: INDU 54, LAB 24, GRN 6, FB 8, UKIP 6

[Davıd Boothroyd]

GLOUCESTER Barnwood: L Dem 48, C 28, BxP 10, Lab 8, GP 4, UKIP 2
GLOUCESTER Podsmead: C 38, Lab 29, BxP 17, L Dem 8, GP 6, UKIP 2
HARTLEPOOL Hart: Ind Union 46, Lab 25, FB 16, UKIP 9, GP 4

[yellowperil]

Gloucester, Barnwood: Con 24, Lab 10, LD 46, Green 3, UKIP 2, BP 15
Gloucester, Podsmead: Con 23, Lab 20, LD 33, Green 5, UKIP 2, BP 17
Hartlepool, Hart: Lab 27, Green 7, UKIP 11, IU 49, FB 6

[Robert Waller]

Gloucester, Barnwood: Con 27, Lab 10, LD 48, Green 3, UKIP 2, BP 10
Gloucester, Podsmead: Con 29, Lab 24, LD 30, Green 2, UKIP 2, BP 13
Hartlepool, Hart: Lab 25, Green 4, UKIP 10, IU 59, FB 2

[Toylyyev]

Gloucester BC, Barnwood: Liberal Democrat 46, Conservative 23, Brexiter 22, Labour 4, Green 4, UKIP 1.
Gloucester BC, Podsmead: Liberal Democrat 36, Conservative 25, Brexiter 22, Labour 13, Green 3, UKIP 1.
Hartlepool UA, Hart: Independent Union 26, Labour 25.9, For Britain 24, UKIP 16, Green 8.1.

[Right Leaning]

Gloucester, Barnwood: LD 47, C 26, BP 14, Lab 9, Gn 3, UKIP 1.
Gloucester, Podsmead: C 32, LD 29, Lab 21, BP 14, G 3, UKIP 1.
Hartlepool, Hart: IU 52, Lab 24, UKIP 12, FB 8, Gn 4.

[andrewp]

Gloucester, Barnwood. Lib Dem 45, Con 27, Brexit 16, Lab 7, Green 4, UKIP 1
Gloucester, Podsmead. Lib Dem 29, Con 25, Lab 22, Brexit 20, Green 3, UKIP 1
Hartlepool, Hart. Union 54, Lab 28, UKIP 9, FB 5, Green 4

[Deleted]

Gloucester, Barnwood. Lib Dem 48, Con 23, Brexit 15, Lab 4, Green 8, UKIP 2
Gloucester, Podsmead. Lib Dem 30, Con 14, Lab 23, Brexit 27, Green 2, UKIP 4
Hartlepool, Hart. Union 53, Lab 28, UKIP 8, FB 6, Green 5

[olympian95]

Glos, Barnwood: LD 51, Con 26, Lab 8, Green 3, UKIP 2, BP 10
Glos, Podsmead: Con 34, Lab 20, LD 28, Green 3, UKIP 3, BP 12,
Hartlepool: IU 61, Lab 23, Green 5 UKIP 9, FB 2

[greenhert]

Gloucester BC, Barnwood: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 25, Brexit 10, Labour 7, Green 6, UKIP 2.
Gloucester BC, Podsmead: Liberal Democrats 33, Conservative 30, Labour 16, Brexit Party 12, Green 6, UKIP 3.
Hartlepool UA, Hart: Union 59, Labour 24, UKIP 9, Green 5, For Britain 3.

[yellowperil]

Fascinating set of predictions, especially Podsmead, where only one person thinks it will be a Labour hold, while 5 expect a Tory gain and 7 a Lib Dem gain. Plenty of room for wrong answer points there. And at Barnwood all 13 expect a Lib Dem gain from Tory, but then 100% wrong answers are not that uncommon! These two were the first local government electoral tests for the Brexit Party, and if we're anything like right it will be pretty underwhelming in a pretty brexity part of the world. On the other hand we expect no surprises from Hartlepool, as we know what goes on in coastal towns in the North-East- wasn't Middlesbrough the last such?

[andrewp]

Jul 25, 2019 10:31:12 GMT yellowperil said:

Fascinating set of predictions, especially Podsmead, where only one person thinks it will be a Labour hold, while 5 expect a Tory gain and 7 a Lib Dem gain. Plenty of room for wrong answer points there. And at Barnwood all 13 expect a Lib Dem gain from Tory, but then 100% wrong answers are not that uncommon! These two were the first local government electoral tests for the Brexit Party, and if we're anything like right it will be pretty underwhelming in a pretty brexity part of the world. On the other hand we expect no surprises from Hartlepool, as we know what goes on in coastal towns in the North-East- wasn't Middlesbrough the last such?

I must admit I think there are 4 conceivable winners in Podsmead. Wouldn’t surprise me if any of them won. In Barnwood, Lise Noakes seemed to have a decent personal vote, so when she wasn’t standing, it was usually a Lib Dem win- probably a fortunate by election to. Come up for the Lib Dem’s. The Brexit party will be interesting- will they get 5% or 30%?

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, with olympian95 returning whilst losing LDCaedydd. ElectionMapsUK gets 2 additional faults for only adding to 98% in Hartlepool whilst greenrobinhood receives 3 x 10 faults for posting just before 11am, as per middleenglander's ruling earlier this month for a similar instance.

Barnwood, Gloucester: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with the majority ranging from 1.6% (Tony Otim) to 19% (iainbhx). The average Brexit Party prediction is 13.9%.
Podsmead, Gloucester: 8 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, with David Boothroyd, iainbhx, olympian95, Right Leaning and myself Conservative gain and Tony Otim Labour hold. The average Brexit Party prediction is 16.8%.
Hart, Hartlepool: 100% Independent Union hold, with the majority ranging from 2% (Toylyyev) to 40% (myself), both over Labour.

Spreadsheet (complete with rankings for the month) is available at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12Hmj3wjkuy78kGIJdzk5n3zGdQZ3tTsnVF-WKHEUiJ4/edit?usp=sharing. Good luck to all! 
 

[Tony Otim]

Could I suggest that the posting of local knowledge on this thread after some competitors have made predictions and others haven't is not something that should be welcomed or encouraged.

[yellowperil]

Jul 25, 2019 19:52:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Could I suggest that the posting of local knowledge on this thread after some competitors have made predictions and others haven't is not something that should be welcomed or encouraged.

I understand the point you are making, but its probably quite difficult to be hard and fast about that. After all it is relatively unusual to make comments on the progress of an election on this thread but it is quite common for such comments to be made on other threads and especially on the local by-elections thread within the time period when competitors are making predictions, And we are often on the lookout for Andrew's column to come online. And then, most people make their predictions, or at least don't post them, until the eve of the elections but sometimes for various reasons people are posting much earlier. 

[ElectionMapsUK]

I think we may have all undestimated For Britain this week. It's in a ward bordering the one they won, I reckon they could get 20%.