Shetland - Scottish Parliament
Sept 7, 2019 16:01:08 GMT
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boogieeck, mboy, and 6 more like this
Post by cogload on Sept 7, 2019 16:01:08 GMT
Some thoughts on this from a distance. Firstly a bit of context - although on paper hugely safe for the LD's the SNP were not far away in the Euros and Carmichael certainly lost in Shetland in 2015 (Orkney saved him).
The SNP did think they were on the verge of winning this with about a week to go. There were the none too subtle briefings of the press and the Islands were swamped with activists by the score. I assume any MSP/MP who did not visit was a threatened with deselection, even Mr Murrell paid two visits although unkind rumour had him on an early flight out on polling day.
For those who are interested look at #tideisturning on twitter for a feel as to how the SNP thought their campaign was going. I can understand this, although lampposts don't vote there was SNP street paraphernalia attached to every single one from Sumburgh to Lerwick and on occasions you couldn't wait for a ferry without stumbling over an activist with as clipboard.
The SNP candidate (Tom Wills) himself ran an energetic campaign and had the Yoof vote pushing him, he also did not mention independence at all in his literature and this may have caught up with him - how an independent Scotland in the EU does not avoid the CFP (I will fight for Shetlands voice in negotiations) didn't cut it. He also played cleverly on the "if I am crap vote me out in 18mths line" and of course the SNP in a LD dominated constituency are change (although the list MSP is nowhere to be seen). Wills is of part of the Shetland mafia in that in his father is a political Labour turned SNP animal (I spotted Wills snr attaching the aforesaid SNP signage to a streetlight). My father has a picture of Wills snr giving it large on the dance floor at RAF Saxavord way back - but that name is also a hindrance as Papa is very divisive and in an island community that is not good.
The LD candidate (Wishart) was selected and she is pretty well known, a current SIC councillor and a LD activist and caseworker for Tavish Scott. Following him was going to be a difficult act in that the Scott family have a feudal vote as well as a personal vote being big landowners across the Islands and John Scott (Tavish's dad) was Lord Lieutenant at one stage. However she had a quiet start in terms of social media and compared to the yoofull Wills was more on the "staid end". But the elderly (we voted for Grimond) vote stayed loyal and this gave her the cushion. This may cause problems in the longer run but she now has a chance to build her profile and the first question she asked at HR was on the cause which Wills and the SNP ran on - you said you would cut ferry fates so when will they be cut? - weirdly the answer was a lot of fluff (maybe around the budget).
I got the sense that there was a big squeeze on by the LD's in the final week which was confirmed by the potential fly in the ointment Ryan Thomson. He was the Indy candidate, Baltasound boy and SIC cllr..so that sewed the 3 Northern Isles up (Unst, Fetlar, Yell). He ran on the platform of "nobody in Edinburgh will tell me how to vote" and it did resonate. He had convinced himself it was close and in an interview on election night said his vote had been squeezed and people voted tactically (semi confirmed by conversation) to stop Wills. The LD campaign did step up a gear in the final week and he did get caught. He is considering having another pop at the seat in 18mths.
It was in the words of one LD activist "intense". And the SNP did throw the kitchen sink at this - the number of activists, social media presence (which was sharp) plus the traditional media (wraparounds in the Shetland Times every week etc) it was very in your face. The aggression was noted.
Who though daubed "SNP" on the side of the war memorial in Lerwick?
The SNP did think they were on the verge of winning this with about a week to go. There were the none too subtle briefings of the press and the Islands were swamped with activists by the score. I assume any MSP/MP who did not visit was a threatened with deselection, even Mr Murrell paid two visits although unkind rumour had him on an early flight out on polling day.
For those who are interested look at #tideisturning on twitter for a feel as to how the SNP thought their campaign was going. I can understand this, although lampposts don't vote there was SNP street paraphernalia attached to every single one from Sumburgh to Lerwick and on occasions you couldn't wait for a ferry without stumbling over an activist with as clipboard.
The SNP candidate (Tom Wills) himself ran an energetic campaign and had the Yoof vote pushing him, he also did not mention independence at all in his literature and this may have caught up with him - how an independent Scotland in the EU does not avoid the CFP (I will fight for Shetlands voice in negotiations) didn't cut it. He also played cleverly on the "if I am crap vote me out in 18mths line" and of course the SNP in a LD dominated constituency are change (although the list MSP is nowhere to be seen). Wills is of part of the Shetland mafia in that in his father is a political Labour turned SNP animal (I spotted Wills snr attaching the aforesaid SNP signage to a streetlight). My father has a picture of Wills snr giving it large on the dance floor at RAF Saxavord way back - but that name is also a hindrance as Papa is very divisive and in an island community that is not good.
The LD candidate (Wishart) was selected and she is pretty well known, a current SIC councillor and a LD activist and caseworker for Tavish Scott. Following him was going to be a difficult act in that the Scott family have a feudal vote as well as a personal vote being big landowners across the Islands and John Scott (Tavish's dad) was Lord Lieutenant at one stage. However she had a quiet start in terms of social media and compared to the yoofull Wills was more on the "staid end". But the elderly (we voted for Grimond) vote stayed loyal and this gave her the cushion. This may cause problems in the longer run but she now has a chance to build her profile and the first question she asked at HR was on the cause which Wills and the SNP ran on - you said you would cut ferry fates so when will they be cut? - weirdly the answer was a lot of fluff (maybe around the budget).
I got the sense that there was a big squeeze on by the LD's in the final week which was confirmed by the potential fly in the ointment Ryan Thomson. He was the Indy candidate, Baltasound boy and SIC cllr..so that sewed the 3 Northern Isles up (Unst, Fetlar, Yell). He ran on the platform of "nobody in Edinburgh will tell me how to vote" and it did resonate. He had convinced himself it was close and in an interview on election night said his vote had been squeezed and people voted tactically (semi confirmed by conversation) to stop Wills. The LD campaign did step up a gear in the final week and he did get caught. He is considering having another pop at the seat in 18mths.
It was in the words of one LD activist "intense". And the SNP did throw the kitchen sink at this - the number of activists, social media presence (which was sharp) plus the traditional media (wraparounds in the Shetland Times every week etc) it was very in your face. The aggression was noted.
Who though daubed "SNP" on the side of the war memorial in Lerwick?
