Survation

[The Bishop]

For the record, the latest Survation poll in the MoS - their first for nearly two months:

Lab 38 (-5)
Con 30
UKIP 14 (+2)
LibDem 9 (+1)

Labour down 5 and Tories unchanged does rather strain credulity, though they at least agree with other surveys on the UKIP figure ;D

[Deleted]

Survation ought to include people who don't have easy access to the internet. They can vote too, even if they couldn't find any information on their police and crime commissioner candidates.

[timrollpickering]

In general there doesn't seem to be much indicating that whether or not a person has (easy) internet access makes a great deal of difference to polls, all other things being equal. It's possible that non-internet users may be disproportionately amongst non-voters. But in general the samples are representative enough to overcome this absence.

The main area where it should send warning sirens is anything to do with the net itself - people without internet access may well take a different view about file sharing, tweeting someone's name in connection with reports and so forth, and I'd question the effectiveness of such surveys without any attempt to gather data offline.

[Andrew_S]

Dec 16, 2012 15:22:43 GMT timrollpickering said:

In general there doesn't seem to be much indicating that whether or not a person has (easy) internet access makes a great deal of difference to polls, all other things being equal. It's possible that non-internet users may be disproportionately amongst non-voters. But in general the samples are representative enough to overcome this absence.

The main area where it should send warning sirens is anything to do with the net itself - people without internet access may well take a different view about file sharing, tweeting someone's name in connection with reports and so forth, and I'd question the effectiveness of such surveys without any attempt to gather data offline.

I think the internet firms have fairly sophisticated methods for accounting for people who are not as likely to be online.

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Mail on Sunday is reporting on front page that their latest poll, from Survation, has UKIP on 16%.

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Just to note that Ukip has yet to be higher than 4th in a conventional phone poll.

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Mail on Sunday is reporting on front page that their latest poll, from Survation, has UKIP on 16%.

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Just to note that Ukip has yet to be higher than 4th in a conventional phone poll.

[The Bishop]

Is there an echo in here??

[Andrew_S]

Jan 5, 2013 21:27:48 GMT @ianrobo said:

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Mail on Sunday is reporting on front page that their latest poll, from Survation, has UKIP on 16%.

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Just to note that Ukip has yet to be higher than 4th in a conventional phone poll.

Getting closer to my prediction of 20% sometime this year.

[Pimpernal]

Lab 38
Con 29
UKIP 16
Libs 11

Also, 43.5% of people said they would consider voting UKIP in a General Election...

[Deleted]

38/29/16/11 according to the online version of the mail. 43% may claim considering to vote Ukip, but only around 5% will actually do so.

[Deleted]

EU VI (Mail.) Tory 24(-4), UKIP 22(+5.5), Labour 31(+15) and the Lib Dems 11(-3).

Not a big drop at all for the Lib Dems

[Deleted]

that seems like a large rise for Labour, (yes 2009 was abysmal) but there again in the Euro's you have so many more parties but none on the so called left.

[Deleted]

Jan 6, 2013 10:41:18 GMT @ianrobo said:

that seems like a large rise for Labour, (yes 2009 was abysmal) but there again in the Euro's you have so many more parties but none on the so called left.

Greens took 8% last time and the BNP 6%, both pulled a lot of votes from Labour. The BNP are hopefully finished, but the Greens are still here to harry you

Still if you at the polling from 2009, you can see over the course of the 6 months prior to the election both Labour and the Tories went down quite significantly.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

[Pimpernal]

What also has to be remembered for Euro elections is the low turnout and the likelihood that UKIP supporters are more likely to vote than other parties - especially labour in the past...

[Deleted]

Jan 6, 2013 10:49:04 GMT Pimpernal said:

What also has to be remembered for Euro elections is the low turnout and the likelihood that UKIP supporters are more likely to vote than other parties - especially labour in the past...

From the look of that table most polls seemed to factor that in quite well last time via likelihood to vote. Last few polls slightly overestimated both Labour, LD and UKIP.. Doesn't seem to be a huge factor last time at least.

[Deleted]

and it has to be say these elections are about as useful as the the PCC ones. All that money on elections for what ? a body with no real power at all.

There is no real point looking at those to gain what will happen a year later as no way will UKIP poll 22% or anything like that in a general election.

[arnieetc]

I've been telling everyone I meet (who cares enough to listen, anyway), that Labour will win the 2014 Euros. For a lot of people still in the 'big two' mindset the Euros are a great protest vote, and Labour did so dreadfully in 2009 that they're guaranteed to enjoy a major rebound.

Don't think the Survation EU numbers are a mile out, but I'd fancy the Tories to drop a fair bit as the campaign gets going.

[marksenior]

Jan 6, 2013 10:46:31 GMT @rlemkin said:

Jan 6, 2013 10:41:18 GMT @ianrobo said:

that seems like a large rise for Labour, (yes 2009 was abysmal) but there again in the Euro's you have so many more parties but none on the so called left.

Greens took 8% last time and the BNP 6%, both pulled a lot of votes from Labour. The BNP are hopefully finished, but the Greens are still here to harry you

Still if you at the polling from 2009, you can see over the course of the 6 months prior to the election both Labour and the Tories went down quite significantly.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

That fall for Labour and the Conservatives was much more caused by all the Expensesgates and not the EU

[Deleted]

Jan 6, 2013 20:41:01 GMT marksenior said:

Jan 6, 2013 10:46:31 GMT @rlemkin said:

Greens took 8% last time and the BNP 6%, both pulled a lot of votes from Labour. The BNP are hopefully finished, but the Greens are still here to harry you

Still if you at the polling from 2009, you can see over the course of the 6 months prior to the election both Labour and the Tories went down quite significantly.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls

That fall for Labour and the Conservatives was much more caused by all the Expensesgates and not the EU

I forgot about that.. still think we'll see a shift away though, but not as marked.

Full details

Lab 31%
Con 24%
UKIP 22%
LD 11%
Green 6.3%
SNP 3%
BNP 1.4%
PC 0.8%

[thetop]

An Others collapse of over 9% to nothing isn't very credible.