cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 3:19:50 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 7:17:06 GMT
So on a GB basis , Survation are saying Lab 38.6% Con 20.9%.
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2024 7:35:18 GMT
So, on polling day, the narrowest Labour lead is 13%, with all other polls this week showing a Labour lead of between 15% & 20% if I'm not mistaken.
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jrl72
Non-Aligned
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Post by jrl72 on Jul 4, 2024 10:35:57 GMT
The Survation poll seems to be GB only. Otherwise, the Others total would be higher.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2024 10:55:07 GMT
It actually states that it is GB on this occasion, yes.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 4, 2024 11:02:45 GMT
The latter, the outgoing PM still holds that position until Friday lunchtime/afternoon in reality.
So when Sunak recently predicted he "would still be PM on Friday 5th" he was technically correct whatever the result is.
(shades of his calling this GE "in the second half of the year" there)
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 11:03:13 GMT
On a serious note, when exactly does a government change, in 1979 Dimbleby made the point of saying Callaghan was no longer Prime Minister as soon as the Tories got their majority but someone here told me recently it was when the incoming PM kisses the monarch’s hand, could anyone just clear this up please? Apparently 'kissing of hands' does not now occur. The new PM is appointed on simply shaking the Monarch's hand. |
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Post by timmullen on Jul 4, 2024 11:09:41 GMT
Not doing much for HM’s carbon footprint either as he’s in Edinburgh this week and the Queen used to take herself off to Balmoral from there, so looks like a flight from Edinburgh to Northolt and back to Aberdeen all for about 80 minutes if he has to meet both Sunak and Starmer.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 4, 2024 11:34:38 GMT
On a serious note, when exactly does a government change, in 1979 Dimbleby made the point of saying Callaghan was no longer Prime Minister as soon as the Tories got their majority but someone here told me recently it was when the incoming PM kisses the monarch’s hand, could anyone just clear this up please? I can make it clear that Dimbleby was a nincompoop - I don’t know the exact context of Dimbleby’s statement, but if he said “Callaghan is no longer Prime Minister” he may have meant it in the not-chronologically-accurate sense, a bit like on the night of the Eu referendum when, at about 5 am, he said “we’re out”. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 12:38:22 GMT
So, on polling day, the narrowest Labour lead is 13%, with all other polls this week showing a Labour lead of between 15% & 20% if I'm not mistaken. The consistent message of the final polling appears to be that 10% - 15% of those intending to vote Labour up to 10 days ago have drifted elsewhere. It now looks as if the party's vote share will fall well short of what was achieved in 2017 - ie 41% across GB. I wonder what caused the late evaporation of support. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 4, 2024 12:49:29 GMT
On a serious note, when exactly does a government change, in 1979 Dimbleby made the point of saying Callaghan was no longer Prime Minister as soon as the Tories got their majority but someone here told me recently it was when the incoming PM kisses the monarch’s hand, could anyone just clear this up please? Apparently 'kissing of hands' does not now occur. The new PM is appointed on simply shaking the Monarch's hand. Surely there's something in writing? "Palace Statement. HMK has asked Bob Smith to form a government. On this date xx yyy zzzz." |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 4, 2024 13:56:03 GMT
So, on polling day, the narrowest Labour lead is 13%, with all other polls this week showing a Labour lead of between 15% & 20% if I'm not mistaken. The consistent message of the final polling appears to be that 10% - 15% of those intending to vote Labour up to 10 days ago have drifted elsewhere. It now looks as if the party's vote share will fall well short of what was achieved in 2017 - ie 41% across GB. I wonder what caused the late evaporation of support. While not belittling Labour’s 2017 campaign the dynamics were very different with (still fresh and hopeful) Remain sentiment coalescing around Labour and Leave (largely but Labour hung on to some) around the Tories. Hence the election gravitated toward a late rebirth of the two party system with the two main parties getting comfortably over 80 per cent of the vote. This time Labour’s win has been priced in by most, allowing freedom to choose a range of options without seeming to threaten the Tory defeat. And it’s likely that Reform’s insurgent campaign has drawn some who had initially opted for switching back to Labour from the Tories. We shall see. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 15:54:20 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 4, 2024 16:11:15 GMT
Apparently 'kissing of hands' does not now occur. The new PM is appointed on simply shaking the Monarch's hand. Surely there's something in writing? "Palace Statement. HMK has asked Bob Smith to form a government. On this date xx yyy zzzz." That would be the reporting of the thing which has happened, not the thing itself actually happening. |
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