graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 19, 2024 12:54:50 GMT
A few pollsters showing "Others" at about 5% now - even given there are some high profile and credible Independents standing this time, that still looks a bit high. Plaid might account for 1% - then thereis Galloway's Workers party , Ukip, Reclaim etc plus a few former MPs standing as Independents. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2024 13:00:46 GMT
A few pollsters showing "Others" at about 5% now - even given there are some high profile and credible Independents standing this time, that still looks a bit high. Plaid might account for 1% - then thereis Galloway's Workers party , Ukip, Reclaim etc plus a few former MPs standing as Independents. Does dim Reclaim |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 19, 2024 13:22:04 GMT
A few pollsters showing "Others" at about 5% now - even given there are some high profile and credible Independents standing this time, that still looks a bit high. Plaid might account for 1% - then thereis Galloway's Workers party , Ukip, Reclaim etc plus a few former MPs standing as Independents. Though as you have said before, don't Survation include NI in their surveys? That would account for a significant part of it I suppose. Savanta also do this don't they - another one who had 5% for "Others" recently. |
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Survation
Jun 19, 2024 13:26:09 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Jun 19, 2024 13:26:09 GMT
Plaid might account for 1% - then thereis Galloway's Workers party , Ukip, Reclaim etc plus a few former MPs standing as Independents. Though as you have said before, don't Survation include NI in their surveys? That would account for a significant part of it I suppose. Savanta also do this don't they - another one who had 5% for "Others" recently. I think it's only survation |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 19, 2024 14:30:05 GMT
Plaid might account for 1% - then thereis Galloway's Workers party , Ukip, Reclaim etc plus a few former MPs standing as Independents. Though as you have said before, don't Survation include NI in their surveys? That would account for a significant part of it I suppose. Savanta also do this don't they - another one who had 5% for "Others" recently. They do indeed - as do Savanta Comres. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 19, 2024 15:07:21 GMT
Survation poll of Jewish voters:-
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 19, 2024 16:50:14 GMT
Survation poll of Jewish voters:- Given there's only about 200,000 of them in the UK in total - this is a swing of around 40,000 votes. How many Muslim voters have they lost at the same time? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,058
Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 19, 2024 17:00:13 GMT
Can we just not? Thank you.
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 19:31:51 GMT
There are in fact nearer to 300,000 than 200,000 of us in Britain.
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Post by redtony on Jun 19, 2024 20:58:11 GMT
how did they identify Jewish voters
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Survation
Jun 20, 2024 6:35:42 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Jun 20, 2024 6:35:42 GMT
how did they identify Jewish voters census? |
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Post by timmullen on Jun 20, 2024 10:16:45 GMT
how did they identify Jewish voters Including a faith question as part of the initial screening? |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 20, 2024 20:20:46 GMT
how did they identify Jewish voters Including a faith question as part of the initial screening? They'd also need to include an ethnicity question, since a great many Jews are entirely non-religious. |
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Post by timmullen on Jun 20, 2024 21:13:16 GMT
Including a faith question as part of the initial screening? They'd also need to include an ethnicity question, since a great many Jews are entirely non-religious. Depending on how truly accurate they want to be; they may be happy just to go with respondents who have self-identified as Jewish, or indeed only want religious Jews; I don’t know genuinely but would that group have been more turned off Labour in 2019 than the non-religious Jews you refer to? |
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Post by batman on Jun 20, 2024 21:42:25 GMT
The poll of Jews which found that only 9% intended to vote Labour in 2019 was definitely all those who identified as Jewish, not just those who are religious. I myself am one of the people who did not vote Labour in 2019 & intend to vote Labour this time. My mother is another although really our reasons are not just because of our views on Corbyn & Starmer. My sister I think did vote Labour in 2019 & will do so this time also - she lives in a Con-Lab marginal unlike me & my mother.
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 20, 2024 21:59:49 GMT
They'd also need to include an ethnicity question, since a great many Jews are entirely non-religious. Depending on how truly accurate they want to be; they may be happy just to go with respondents who have self-identified as Jewish, or indeed only want religious Jews; I don’t know genuinely but would that group have been more turned off Labour in 2019 than the non-religious Jews you refer to? My guess is that religious Jews would have been more turned off Labour than non-religious Jews. Those who practice the religion will almost certainly have a stronger Jewish identity than those who don't (though many of the people who identify as religious Jews will be non-practicing). And this will make them more sensitive to antisemitism. I would also expect them to be more likely to follow Jewish media -and so to be more aware of instances of antisemitism in Corbyn's Labour. These two factors mean that I would expect any differences between the Jewish population and the general population to be more pronounced among religious Jews than it is among secular Jews.
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Post by timmullen on Jun 20, 2024 22:29:10 GMT
Depending on how truly accurate they want to be; they may be happy just to go with respondents who have self-identified as Jewish, or indeed only want religious Jews; I don’t know genuinely but would that group have been more turned off Labour in 2019 than the non-religious Jews you refer to? My guess is that religious Jews would have been more turned off Labour than non-religious Jews. Those who practice the religion will almost certainly have a stronger Jewish identity than those who don't (though many of the people who identify as religious Jews will be non-practicing). And this will make them more sensitive to antisemitism. I would also expect them to be more likely to follow Jewish media -and so to be more aware of instances of antisemitism in Corbyn's Labour. These two factors mean that I would expect any differences between the Jewish population and the general population to be more pronounced among religious Jews than it is among secular Jews.
Thanks, those were my totally uneducated thoughts that I was, maybe not very articulately, trying to suggest. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 26, 2024 7:09:23 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 26, 2024 11:39:11 GMT
7% for "Others" is high even including NI.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Jun 26, 2024 12:42:10 GMT
On these numbers:
FT:
Lab 470
Con 50
LD 75
Ref 1
Grn 1
Electoral Calculus UNS:
Lab 494
Con 51
LD 64
Grn 1
Ref 0
Electoral Calculus MRP:
Lab 495
Con 41
LD 63
Ref 3
Grn 2
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