Survation

[Andrew_S]

May 1, 2013 5:07:11 GMT @ianrobo said:

New one

Con 29 -2
Lab 36 -2
LD 12 +2
UKIP 16 +2

Am I right in thinking this poll hasn't been adjusted in the usual way?

[Deleted]

Survation

www.politics.co.uk/news/2013/05/20/poll-ukip-just-two-per-cent-behind-tories

Con 24 -3
Lab 35 -1
LD 11 -1
UKIP 22 +6

[Deleted]

EU one

UK - Survation poll on EU (MEPs) election: CON 20%, GRN 6%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%

Actually good for Lab

[Deleted]

Lol.

[Deleted]

Is this going to be a weekly whilst UKIP ride high ?

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Tories still just 2 ahead of UKIP, in new Survation poll for Mail on Sunday CON 24% (nc) LAB 35% (-1) LD 10% (-1) UKIP: 22%

[Andrew_S]

May 25, 2013 20:40:18 GMT @ianrobo said:

Is this going to be a weekly whilst UKIP ride high ?

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Tories still just 2 ahead of UKIP, in new Survation poll for Mail on Sunday CON 24% (nc) LAB 35% (-1) LD 10% (-1) UKIP: 22%

Interesting that 2 percentage points have disappeared to other parties other than the main four. Maybe the BNP have picked up a point or two.

[erlend]

Ain unless you have full figures be careful not to iveranalyse. That 2% could be resl. But it could be due to rounding error.

ie last time it may hae added to 101% and this time to 99%.

[The Bishop]

Labour were actually on 35 in the last poll, too. Only the LibDems are changed since then.

[Andrew_S]

Labour: 36% (+1)
Conservative: 25% (+1)
UKIP: 20% (-2)
Others: 10% (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 10% (nc)

[innocentabroad]

Jun 2, 2013 18:37:37 GMT Andrew_S said:

Labour: 36% (+1)
Conservative: 25% (+1)
UKIP: 20% (-2)
Others: 10% (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 10% (nc)

Margin of error...

[Devonian]

Survation's "Europe: Awareness and Attitudes 05/06/2012 Prepared on behalf of Sky News" opinion polls contains the following information. The headline figure is for a Euro Referendum

51% in favour of leaving the EU
49% in favour of remaining in the EU

There does not seem to be any election headline figures but it does contain the following data

Table 75
Q32. If there was a General Election taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? Base : All Respondents Who Ready To Vote In General Election

Conservative 20.3%
Labour 32.2%
Lib Dem 9.2%
UKIP 19.1%
Green 2.3%

Don't know 13.1%

Table 72
Q30.If this election was to take place tomorrow instead, which party do you think you would be most likely to vote for in a European Election? Base : All Respondents Who Ready To Vote

Conservative 17.7%
Labour 27.5%
Lib Dem 7.5%
UKIP 21.4%
Green 5.9%

Don't know 14.5%

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Europe-Poll-Data-Tables.pdf

[marksenior]

Unfortunately that data is pretty useless as turnout will not be 85% which the results in those two tables implies .

[jdc]

Jun 6, 2013 20:06:19 GMT marksenior said:

Unfortunately that data is pretty useless as turnout will not be 85% which the results in those two tables implies .

Are you not mixing up "don't know" with "none of the above"?

[marksenior]

Jun 6, 2013 20:36:03 GMT jdc said:

Jun 6, 2013 20:06:19 GMT marksenior said:

Unfortunately that data is pretty useless as turnout will not be 85% which the results in those two tables implies .

Are you not mixing up "don't know" with "none of the above"?

There are no "none of the above" in those 2 tables .

[Devonian]

Jun 6, 2013 20:36:03 GMT jdc said:

Jun 6, 2013 20:06:19 GMT marksenior said:

Unfortunately that data is pretty useless as turnout will not be 85% which the results in those two tables implies .

Are you not mixing up "don't know" with "none of the above"?

I think that's right. I get the impression the don't knows are those people who say they are 'ready to vote' but don't know who for, rather than being those who won't vote.

I don't know how exactly a pollster would crunch those numbers to come up with a headline polling figure. I'm just mentioning what the data is and providing the link if anyone wants to see if they can make anything of it.

[marksenior]

Some of the tables ( 70 for instance ) show the likelihood to vote on a 1 to 10 basis but Survation has not in this case crunched the numbers together with those in Table 72 to gibe a VI figure .

[jdc]

Jun 6, 2013 20:39:55 GMT marksenior said:

Jun 6, 2013 20:36:03 GMT jdc said:

Are you not mixing up "don't know" with "none of the above"?

There are no "none of the above" in those 2 tables .

By none of the above, I really meant "not voting at all". Headline voting numbers summing to 100% (including don't knows) don't seem to me to imply a turnout of (100%-DK).

[marksenior]

Table 69 gives the " not voting at all " as 7.3% of the whole sample more than half of whom have given a party VI which is included in Table 72 . A further 21% of the sample are 1 to 5 out of 10 certainty to vote and again are included in Table 72 . All polling companies will do their calculations taking this into account in a slightly different way but none of them would simply use the figures in Table 72 as VI figures without some adjustment .

[Deleted]

LOL poll

electionista @electionista

UK - @survation poll: CON 23%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 22%

Now of course they prompt for UKIP but still LOL

[Pimpernal]

Survation/Mirror poll (4 July '13): LAB 36.0%, CON 22.8%, ‎#UKIP 21.6%, LDEM 9.6%, GRN 4.3%, SNP 3.0%, BNP 1.1%, PC 0.4%, RES 0.2%, TUSC 0.1%