Survation

[The Bishop]

LOL at that TUSC score - it is consistent with their showings in local elections, though!

[Devonian]

Jul 5, 2013 8:04:26 GMT Pimpernal said:

Survation/Mirror poll (4 July '13): LAB 36.0%, CON 22.8%, ‎#UKIP 21.6%, LDEM 9.6%, GRN 4.3%, SNP 3.0%, BNP 1.1%, PC 0.4%, RES 0.2%, TUSC 0.1%

I had wondered how much of the recent dip in UKIP polling numbers had been due to a decline in their publicity, due to dropping off the front pages, followed by not being prompted for. Now it would be wrong to read too much into one poll but IF this is accurate then it suggests that most if not all of the recent dip is down to this factor. This would bode well for UKIP in future as it would mean that at the moment where there is real life prompting for UKIP (e.g. a European election campaign, other events etc) they can expect to start from their high point in the May polls.

Also note, as Mike Smithson has pointed out, before adjustment was made for don't knows UKIP were actually second in the poll and the Conservatives third.

[Deleted]

say we trust those figures then it shows the Crosby effect has had no impact at all. Does dog whistle politics really work in this day and age ?

[Deleted]

The Tories would get somewhere if they stopped banging on about Europe to try and outflank UKIP. They can't outflank UKIP over Europe, all they're doing is diverting attention to UKIP's strongest ground which surprise surprise helps UKIP.

[Deleted]

It is immigration, the polls all show that but same principle applies you can not outflank UKIP over it because they are proposing something so unworkable it would damage the economy.

[Devonian]

Voting Intention*: LAB 36% CON 28% UKIP 20% LD 9% Others 7%.



*Change versus our last poll? We have introduced an additional household income weighting in this poll, and so as a policy we do not make comparisons to previous polls when a methodology has changed – even for a minor change such as this.

Voting Intention by Socio-Economic Group: Survation/MOS July 14th
ALL ==> LAB 36% CON 28% UKIP 20% LD 9%

AB ===> LAB 38% CON 33% UKIP 11% LD 11%
C1 ===> LAB 33% CON 30% UKIP 19% LD 9%
C2 ===> LAB 32% CON 29% UKIP 27% LD 7%
DE ===> LAB 42% CON 17% UKIP 25% LD 7%

survation.com/2013/07/lynton-crosbys-barnacles/

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Royal-Baby-Poll-Tables.pdf

[Andrew_S]

Jul 13, 2013 20:34:53 GMT Devonian said:

Voting Intention*: LAB 36% CON 28% UKIP 20% LD 9% Others 7%.



*Change versus our last poll? We have introduced an additional household income weighting in this poll, and so as a policy we do not make comparisons to previous polls when a methodology has changed – even for a minor change such as this.

Voting Intention by Socio-Economic Group: Survation/MOS July 14th
ALL ==> LAB 36% CON 28% UKIP 20% LD 9%

AB ===> LAB 38% CON 33% UKIP 11% LD 11%
C1 ===> LAB 33% CON 30% UKIP 19% LD 9%
C2 ===> LAB 32% CON 29% UKIP 27% LD 7%
DE ===> LAB 42% CON 17% UKIP 25% LD 7%

survation.com/2013/07/lynton-crosbys-barnacles/

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Royal-Baby-Poll-Tables.pdf

Labour doing best with ABs and DEs as we've come to expect in recent years.

[Devonian]

Survation for The Mail on Sunday – Voting Intention (Change since July 13th) CON 28% (NC) LAB 36% (NC) UKIP 18% (-2) LD 11% (+2) AP 7% (NC)

[Deleted]

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
New Survation poll for Mail on Sunday
Changes from Aug 4
CON 29% (+1)
LAB 37% (+1)
UKIP 17% (-1)
LD 11% =

[Deleted]

been ages since we had one, presume will have VI

Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
Looks like there a really interesting Survation poll coming out for the Mail on Sunday

[Deleted]

The Staggers @thestaggers
New Survation/Mail on Sunday poll: Lab 37%, Con 27%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 11%.

[Deleted]

George Eaton @georgeeaton
European elections poll puts UKIP 13 points behind Labour: Lab 35%, UKIP 22%, Con 21%, Lib Dems 11%, Greens 5%

Not sure I believe either poll

The GE one Tories are too low and Europeans UKIP too low and I would be delighted if we got 30% in the Euros never mind 35%

[Andrew_S]

Oct 12, 2013 22:25:47 GMT @ianrobo said:

George Eaton @georgeeaton
European elections poll puts UKIP 13 points behind Labour: Lab 35%, UKIP 22%, Con 21%, Lib Dems 11%, Greens 5%

Not sure I believe either poll

The GE one Tories are too low and Europeans UKIP too low and I would be delighted if we got 30% in the Euros never mind 35%

IIRC polls for the Euro election are not usually reliable until just a few weeks before the election itself. Until then they tend to be unduly influenced by Westminster voting intentions.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I suspect at the moment it's most useful as a proxy for the prcentage of the electorate who would currently be open to voting UKIP in a general election.

[erlend]

Are you saying that is a ceiling. While if so I would add that not necessarily all would vote that way at the same time. The comparison might be to the early 80s figure of ca 51% for the Alliance.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I don't think it's a ceiling, I think it is the percentage who would like to vote UKIP but are unconvinced it would be worthwhile. That strikes me as a very fluid number, as we saw most strikingly in the Eastleigh campaign.

[Devonian]

Survation ‏@survation

New Survation Westminster Voting Intention 24/10 (Change since 13/10) CON 29 (+2) LAB 37(nc) UKIP 16 (-1) LD 10 (nc) AP 8 (+1)

[Devonian]

In tomorrow’s poll for The Mail On Sunday we’ve looked in detail into the current state of the energy debate.

The poll covers John Major’s “windfall tax” intervention, attitudes to specific ”green taxes” and energy policies and their future shape, the public’s view on respective party leader’s policies, consumer experiences of budgeting for heating and the public’s experience with switching.

Voting intention and change since our poll on October 24th is:

CON 29 (nc) LAB 35 (-2) LD 12 (+2) UKIP 17 (+1) AP 7 (-1)

survation.com/2013/10/the-great-uk-energy-debate-survation-take-a-detailed-look-for-the-mail-on-sunday/

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/MailEnergyFinal.pdf

[The Bishop]

Slightly confused by the above posts - Survation took two seperate polls?

[Devonian]

Oct 27, 2013 12:22:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Slightly confused by the above posts - Survation took two seperate polls?

Apparently so. That confused me as well. When I saw the figures on the website I noticed the vote change figures didn't match up, then I saw a reference to a 24 Oct poll but no details given. Then I spotted a mention of the 24 Oct figures an Survation's twitterfeed at the side of the page. Follow the link and you'll see what I mean. Very curious.