Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2019 21:05:12 GMT
The usual caveat about how Electoral Calculus is full of sh*t, but I have also noticed they tend to have the SNP on the high side - so having us on five Scottish seats and several others very close may not be a bad sign. You think SNP up 0.1% since 2017 is "on the high side"? I would have said it was on the low side.. I was referring to seat numbers.
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 2, 2019 20:00:40 GMT
last on of those wholly before the actual election.
November polls average:
CON 41% LAB 29.9% LD 15.1%
Electoral Calculus (with the usual caveats) gives us:
CON 339 LAB 221 LD 20 SNP 47 PC 4 Grn 1
NI 18
Con majority of 28
Delicately balanced now in that a tiny swing from this position either way results in either a comfortable 5-year majority or a hung parliament!
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 19, 2019 12:50:10 GMT
Electoral Calculus have updated their maps and statistics for the new election.
I'm mentioning this because they're actually far better at this side of things than predicting elections. Their clustering of voters and analysis of demographics are usually pretty sound.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 19, 2019 13:09:25 GMT
They clearly struggle with estimating how wards voted when theres been a big swing and seem to assume relative uniformity in movement which leads to obviously safe Labour wards being predicted to be marginal/vote Tory. Also obvious issue of under-contested/indy wards in places like County Durham.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 19, 2019 13:10:45 GMT
Just had a look at Putney, LOL.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 19, 2019 13:27:19 GMT
I've noticed that the ward-by-ward figures don't actually seem to be an estimation of what happened at the election but based upon a 'prediction' of what will happen at the next election (which is odd, as I don't think there has yet been any published voting intention polls since last week).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 19, 2019 13:33:42 GMT
I've noticed that the ward-by-ward figures don't actually seem to be an estimation of what happened at the election but based upon a 'prediction' of what will happen at the next election (which is odd, as I don't think there has yet been any published voting intention polls since last week). You have to click on show workings evidently to reveal the estimates of the actual result
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 19, 2019 13:34:18 GMT
I've noticed that the ward-by-ward figures don't actually seem to be an estimation of what happened at the election but based upon a 'prediction' of what will happen at the next election (which is odd, as I don't think there has yet been any published voting intention polls since last week). If you click on "Show working" you can see their estimates for 2019 (the map on each constituency is based on the 2019 estimates not their "predictions"). There's a second method too, look at new boundaries instead of old ones.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 19, 2019 15:40:15 GMT
My constituency's estimates are based on the 2015 local election results, despite the most recent local election being in May, and the ward boundaries being redrawn since 2015. It leaves the figures looking wrong on the basis of the 2019 local results, a quick look shows the best Green areas in 2019 (even in wards outside the local Green-Lib Dem pact) not being the best Green areas in their estimates; the same being true for the best Lib Dem areas.
I'm guessing other areas are using outdated local election results as their basis which, even discounting the massive realignment since the 2016 referendum, makes them not particularly useful or accurate, IMO, right now.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 19, 2019 16:06:42 GMT
clyde1998 Its even worse in other councils. Many county/unitary councils are based off 2013!
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 19, 2019 16:13:01 GMT
clyde1998 Its even worse in other councils. Many county/unitary councils are based off 2013! It does seem to correct these clear errors by using demographics, though that only partially works. Though I was impressed by some of their estimates - for example in Blaydon (a seat we both know well), they have Winlaton and High Spen as being about as marginal as the two north Whickham wards. That would make sense based on the kind of realignment we saw, and wouldn't be clear from local results alone.
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Post by southpaw1 on Sept 2, 2020 21:23:28 GMT
This site is currently projecting a reduced CON majority of 12 based on recent polling
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 2, 2020 21:31:58 GMT
This site is currently projecting a reduced CON majority of 12 based on recent polling Party like it's 2015
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