I'd put money on Ashfield being a gain by Jason Zadrozny for the Ashfield Independents. And I'm not a betting man.
I don't know about that, but I'm pretty sure he would eat into the anti-establishment element of the BxP vote, leaving them with die-hard Brexiters.
I could see them a strong 3rd and challenging for the seat next time round. This time is probably a bit too soon. A lot of the Indy vote is anti-Labour and many will simply switch back to Tory at a GE(or BP if Brexit doesn't happen)
A feature which I aim to do each month (if I remind myself!).
I will be taking the average polling opinion scores in the calendar month and extrapolating those average percentages into seats using electoral calculus.
CON 27.0% - 283 SEATS
LAB 24.7% - 244 SEATS
LDM 18.3% - 55 SEATS
BXP 15.7% - 9 SEATS
SNP - 37 SEATS
PC 3 SEATS
GRN 1 SEAT
N.I. 18 SEATS
Despite a decent lead for the Conservatives the only even vaguely feasible coalition would be the much-touted "progressive alliance" but is that even workable under Corbyn?
What changes will we see in the polls in August?
SNP on 37? Is that losing NE Fife and gaining Stirling and a couple of the Scottish Labour seats? Or some other combination?
Currently EC doesn't allow you to set the SNP % unless you provide a full breakdown for Scotland. If you don't do that then it uses its baseline scottish figures, which in the SNP's case seems to be their 3.1% from 2017. I think this makes things look artificially poor for the SNP, and good for Lab/Con in Scotland. If you put in one of the recent(ish) Scottish polls then you get them doing quite a lot better.
I suspect the peculiarities in Wales are for a similar reason, except there seems to be no way at all to predict the PC vote, it's just fixed at 0.6%.