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Post by tonyhill on Aug 4, 2019 20:44:59 GMT
I'd put money on Ashfield being a gain by Jason Zadrozny for the Ashfield Independents. And I'm not a betting man.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 4, 2019 20:46:01 GMT
Still, in a lot of Tory seats north of the border Labour are miles behind - look at the North East for example. In terms of rural seats I agree - but in seats which were Labour-held pre-2015 I would expect the Unionist vote to switch back to Labour. Only 6 of the 13 Conservative-held seats have ever been Labour, and a couple of those were against the usual grain (Dumfries and Ayr are not natural Labour seats by any means, nor is Aberdeen South) |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 4, 2019 20:47:00 GMT
Quite - the 4 English ones seem feasible enough, if they were to win seats, but Montgomeryshire and Pembrokeshire? Just don't see it. Probably not Ashfield either if the Ashfield Indies were to stand. Which they are.... |
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 4, 2019 20:52:02 GMT
A feature which I aim to do each month (if I remind myself!). I will be taking the average polling opinion scores in the calendar month and extrapolating those average percentages into seats using electoral calculus. July 2019
CON 27.0% - 283 SEATS LAB 24.7% - 244 SEATS LDM 18.3% - 55 SEATS BXP 15.7% - 9 SEATS
SNP - 37 SEATS PC 3 SEATS GRN 1 SEAT N.I. 18 SEATS
Despite a decent lead for the Conservatives the only even vaguely feasible coalition would be the much-touted "progressive alliance" but is that even workable under Corbyn?
What changes will we see in the polls in August?
SNP on 37? Is that losing NE Fife and gaining Stirling and a couple of the Scottish Labour seats? Or some other combination?
EC has them winning:
Coatbridge C & B Glasgow NE Kirkcaldy & C'beath Midlothian Rutherglen
but losing: Fife NE Lanark & Hamilton E Perth & NP
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 4, 2019 21:42:00 GMT
I'd put money on Ashfield being a gain by Jason Zadrozny for the Ashfield Independents. And I'm not a betting man. I don't know about that, but I'm pretty sure he would eat into the anti-establishment element of the BxP vote, leaving them with die-hard Brexiters. |
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Aug 4, 2019 21:45:58 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me] I would not expect the Brexit Party to win any Welsh seats. Of all the seats listed, Thurrock is the only serious possibility. They won't be winning any seats if Boris delivers Brexit. If he doesn't, then polls will gyrate all over the place . |
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Aug 4, 2019 21:59:20 GMT
I'd put money on Ashfield being a gain by Jason Zadrozny for the Ashfield Independents. And I'm not a betting man. I don't know about that, but I'm pretty sure he would eat into the anti-establishment element of the BxP vote, leaving them with die-hard Brexiters. I could see them a strong 3rd and challenging for the seat next time round. This time is probably a bit too soon. A lot of the Indy vote is anti-Labour and many will simply switch back to Tory at a GE(or BP if Brexit doesn't happen) |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 4, 2019 21:59:53 GMT
I'd put money on Ashfield being a gain by Jason Zadrozny for the Ashfield Independents. And I'm not a betting man. I don't know about that, but I'm pretty sure he would eat into the anti-establishment element of the BxP vote, leaving them with die-hard Brexiters. It should split the right-wing vote nicely, fingers crossed. |
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Post by carolus on Aug 4, 2019 22:04:23 GMT
A feature which I aim to do each month (if I remind myself!). I will be taking the average polling opinion scores in the calendar month and extrapolating those average percentages into seats using electoral calculus. July 2019
CON 27.0% - 283 SEATS LAB 24.7% - 244 SEATS LDM 18.3% - 55 SEATS BXP 15.7% - 9 SEATS
SNP - 37 SEATS PC 3 SEATS GRN 1 SEAT N.I. 18 SEATS
Despite a decent lead for the Conservatives the only even vaguely feasible coalition would be the much-touted "progressive alliance" but is that even workable under Corbyn?
What changes will we see in the polls in August?
SNP on 37? Is that losing NE Fife and gaining Stirling and a couple of the Scottish Labour seats? Or some other combination? Currently EC doesn't allow you to set the SNP % unless you provide a full breakdown for Scotland. If you don't do that then it uses its baseline scottish figures, which in the SNP's case seems to be their 3.1% from 2017. I think this makes things look artificially poor for the SNP, and good for Lab/Con in Scotland. If you put in one of the recent(ish) Scottish polls then you get them doing quite a lot better.
I suspect the peculiarities in Wales are for a similar reason, except there seems to be no way at all to predict the PC vote, it's just fixed at 0.6%.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 4, 2019 22:22:49 GMT
except there seems to be no way at all to predict the PC vote, it's just fixed at 0.6%.
So just like real life then. |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 4, 2019 22:01:53 GMT
August poll of polls:
As I did 4 weeks ago, this is a calculation based on all polls in the month and then fed into the Electoral Calculus prediction program.
Con 32.1% = 352 seats (+34) Lab 24.2% = 199 seats (-63) LDm 18.5% = 42 seats (+30) BXP 13.5% = 0 seats
SNP 35 seats (n/c) PC 3 seats (-1) Grn 1 seat (n/c) NI 18 seats
What a bonkers electoral system we have where a party can get a working majority with less than 1/3 of the turnout!
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Sept 4, 2019 22:06:16 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me] I would not expect the Brexit Party to win any Welsh seats. Of all the seats listed, Thurrock is the only serious possibility. I'd expect it, but not in such Conservative-friendly areas. The Brexit Party would most likely do best in areas where people won't vote Conservative. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 4, 2019 22:10:09 GMT
August poll of polls:
As I did 4 weeks ago, this is a calculation based on all polls in the month and then fed into the Electoral Calculus prediction program.
Con 32.1% = 352 seats (+34) Lab 24.2% = 199 seats (-63) LDm 18.5% = 42 seats (+30) BXP 13.5% = 0 seats
SNP 35 seats (n/c) PC 3 seats (-1) Grn 1 seat (n/c) NI 18 seats
What a bonkers electoral system we have where a party can get a working majority with less than 1/3 of the turnout!
Why didn't you use the Scottish YouGov poll in Scotland? That would not have left SNP static |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 4, 2019 22:21:34 GMT
would it make a huge difference?
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 4, 2019 22:25:40 GMT
For the benefit of andrew111 here is a revised prediction using the latest Scottish poll figures:
Con 343 Lab 195 LD 39 SNP 51 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 4, 2019 22:43:13 GMT
For the benefit of andrew111 here is a revised prediction using the latest Scottish poll figures:
Con 343 Lab 195 LD 39 SNP 51 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18
Non-SNP seats would be:
Con: DCT, BRS and Ab W & Kincardine LD: Dunb E, Edin W, Caithness S & ER and O&S Lab: Edin S
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 5, 2019 13:45:01 GMT
For the benefit of andrew111 here is a revised prediction using the latest Scottish poll figures:
Con 343 Lab 195 LD 39 SNP 51 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18
Non-SNP seats would be:
Con: DCT, BRS and Ab W & Kincardine LD: Dunb E, Edin W, Caithness S & ER and O&S Lab: Edin S
Edinburgh S may be interesting because the Lib Dems are supposed to have done remarkably well there in the EU election. SNP might come through the middle. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 5, 2019 16:28:16 GMT
Non-SNP seats would be: Con: DCT, BRS and Ab W & Kincardine LD: Dunb E, Edin W, Caithness S & ER and O&S Lab: Edin S
Edinburgh S may be interesting because the Lib Dems are supposed to have done remarkably well there in the EU election. SNP might come through the middle. I'd be amazed if Murray lost here, although could see it much tighter and LDs pushing SNP for 2nd perhaps. |
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 5, 2019 19:51:57 GMT
Non-SNP seats would be:
Con: DCT, BRS and Ab W & Kincardine LD: Dunb E, Edin W, Caithness S & ER and O&S Lab: Edin S
Edinburgh S may be interesting because the Lib Dems are supposed to have done remarkably well there in the EU election. SNP might come through the middle. Isnt Ed S the safest seat in Scotland?? |
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 5, 2019 20:26:46 GMT
Edinburgh S may be interesting because the Lib Dems are supposed to have done remarkably well there in the EU election. SNP might come through the middle. Isnt Ed S the safest seat in Scotland?? Scotland doesn't have safe seats in Westminster elections. |
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