Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on May 1, 2019 21:16:16 GMT
Brexit Party showing on Electoral Calculus as gaining Thurrock and Labour shy of a majority.
I wonder what the top 20 targets will be for the Brexit party if we get a GE to sort out this mess.
It is looking good for Labour to scupper a Brexit deal and force a GE with that forecast. That will inflict maximum damage to the Conservatives.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 1, 2019 21:41:32 GMT
Just short in Boston and Skegness by 2%
|
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on May 1, 2019 21:45:14 GMT
Just short in Boston and Skegness by 2% Several are close like IoW 0.4%, which highlights the current demise in the Conservatives. Some of the figures don't make sense! Like the Greens fall in some of the constituencies like IoW above, despite them up overall. The wales figures are acting strangely too. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2019 21:46:36 GMT
I'm looking at Cities of London and Westminster, and alternating between 'Wouldn't that be amazing!' and 'You utter bunch of fools, we are definitely not ahead in that ward'.
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on May 1, 2019 21:59:23 GMT
Electoral Calculus is interesting and fun to play around with, but should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism.
|
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on May 1, 2019 22:09:21 GMT
Electoral Calculus is interesting and fun to play around with, but should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism. And they now include 2 new parties,which creates a lot of problems and guesswork for their models. Not to mention the Brexit effect. What did Caroline Lucas do to upset them? |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2019 22:11:11 GMT
Electoral Calculus is interesting and fun to play around with, but should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism. And they now include 2 new parties,which creates a lot of problems and guesswork for their models. Not to mention the Brexit effect. What did Caroline Lucas do to upset them? If the Brexit Party are ahead in two wards in Brighton Pavilion, I'll not only eat my hat, I'll eat everyone else's. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 2, 2019 7:41:08 GMT
If the SNP gain Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross with a 13% majority (larger than 2015) then I respectfully ask David to save some hats for me. I expect Jamie Stone to increase his majority.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
|
Post by The Bishop on May 2, 2019 10:32:19 GMT
As demonstrated above, Electoral Calculus is pish  |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on May 2, 2019 10:40:49 GMT
As demonstrated above, Electoral Calculus is pish Entertaining pish, but pish nonetheless. |
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
|
Post by clyde1998 on May 2, 2019 16:02:36 GMT
The Change UK defector seats: | Seat | CUK | Brx | Con | Grn | Lab | Lib | UKIP | Oth | Result | | Broxtowe | 4.2%
* | 17.1%
* | 27.0%
(-19.8) | 4.5%
(+3.3) | 34.6%
(-10.7) | 5.2%
(+1.2) | 5.6%
(+2.9) | 1.8%
* | Lab gain from Con
| | Enfield North | 5.7%
* | 12.5%
* | 21.4%
(-15.5) | 4.9%
(+3.7) | 44.1%
(-13.9) | 6.3%
(+4.2) | 4.0%
(+2.3) | 1.1%
*
| Lab hold | | Ilford South | 5.0%
* | 7.3%
* | 11.9%
(-9.0) | 6.1%
(+5.2) | 61.7%
(-14.1) | 5.1%
(+3.8) | 2.3%
(+1.5) | 0.4%
(+0.3) | Lab hold | | Liverpool Wavertree | 4.6%
* | 10.1%
* | 9.6%
(-2.4) | 5.2%
(+3.8) | 59.0%
(-20.6) | 7.2%
(+0.7) | 3.3%
* | 1.0%
(+0.5) | Lab hold | | Luton South | 5.4%
* | 11.9%
* | 18.3%
(-14.0) | 5.0%
(+4.0) | 49.0%
(-13.4) | 5.7%
(+3.4) | 3.9%
(+2.2) | 0.8%
(+0.5) | Lab hold | | Nottingham East | 4.0%
* | 12.9%
* | 12.7%
(-8.9) | 6.0%
(+4.2) | 54.4%
(-17.1) | 4.7%
(+2.1) | 4.3%
(+2.2) | 1.0%
(+0.5) | Lab hold | | Penistone & Stocksbridge | 3.9%
* | 20.7%
* | 24.6%
(-18.6) | 4.6%
* | 32.8%
(-13.0) | 4.6%
(+0.5) | 6.8%
(-0.1) | 2.0%
* | Lab hold | | South Cambridgeshire | 7.0%
* | 12.4%
* | 31.2%
(-20.6) | 4.3%
(+2.0) | 23.0%
(-4.2) | 16.7%
(-1.9) | 3.9%
* | 1.5%
* | Con hold | | Streatham | 6.3%
* | 8.5%
* | 13.5%
(-7.9) | 6.3%
(+3.3) | 51.3%
(-17.2) | 10.6%
(+4.1) | 2.7%
(+2.1) | 0.9%
* | Lab hold | | Stockport | 4.3%
* | 14.9%
* | 17.2%
(-11.2) | 5.0%
(+3.6) | 46.7%
(-16.6) | 5.5%
(+1.2) | 4.9%
(+2.3) | 1.5%
* | Lab hold | | Totnes | 6.3%
* | 17.9%
* | 30.1%
(-23.6) | 5.1%
(+0.9) | 21.1%
(-5.7) | 11.7%
(-0.8) | 5.8%
(+3.3) | 2.1%
* | Con hold | | Average | 5.2%
* | 13.3%
* | 19.8%
(-13.8) | 5.2%
(+3.4) | 43.4%
(-13.3) | 7.6%
(+1.7) | 4.3%
(+2.1) | 1.3%
(+0.5) | |
Good job. 👍 |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,913
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on May 2, 2019 16:26:52 GMT
Well those are complete and total bullshit...
|
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
Post by Vibe on May 2, 2019 16:43:09 GMT
Well those are complete and total bullshit... It is hard for them to know how the Change defectors will perform if there was a GE. Clearly they ignored an incumbency boosts. Their model finds it hard to deal with the Strong Green areas like Brighton, where they predict a near 50% fall in their share of the vote! Miniroty parties are on 1.7% on the front page, yet they seem to have reset them to zero on the individual seats. If we get a GE before Brexit, then the pollsters will have a very tough job in predicting seats. |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on May 2, 2019 16:58:12 GMT
Well those are complete and total bullshit... It is hard for them to know how the Change defectors will perform if there was a GE. Clearly they ignored an incumbency boosts. Their model finds it hard to deal with the Strong Green areas like Brighton, where they predict a near 50% fall in their share of the vote! Miniroty parties are on 1.7% on the front page, yet they seem to have reset them to zero on the individual seats. If we get a GE before Brexit, then the pollsters will have a very tough job in predicting seats. They also have no model for projecting where the Tory vote is most susceptible to the Brexit Party i.e. in areas that have larger Leave votes. On this national vote share the Brexit Party is not going to get 12.1% in Chelsea and Fulham for example but on the other hand may well do even better than Electoral Calculus have projected in places like Boston and Skegness. |
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on May 2, 2019 17:30:42 GMT
And they now include 2 new parties,which creates a lot of problems and guesswork for their models. Not to mention the Brexit effect. What did Caroline Lucas do to upset them? If the Brexit Party are ahead in two wards in Brighton Pavilion, I'll not only eat my hat, I'll eat everyone else's. If the SNP gain Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross with a 13% majority (larger than 2015) then I respectfully ask David to save some hats for me. I expect Jamie Stone to increase his majority. Here's mine:  Available to whoever gets to it first.  |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on May 4, 2019 22:14:32 GMT
And they now include 2 new parties,which creates a lot of problems and guesswork for their models. Not to mention the Brexit effect. What did Caroline Lucas do to upset them? If the Brexit Party are ahead in two wards in Brighton Pavilion, I'll not only eat my hat, I'll eat everyone else's. I dunno, a good friend of mine grew up in Patcham, which is one of the wards they have the Brexit Party winning. He reckons it's a very different place to central Brighton, much more like Sussex as a whole - I believe official figures showed the Leave vote at circa 40%. Apparently there's a fairly big working class Conservative vote, and also a general anti-establishment vote which leans Green. If the Brexit Party took voters from both, he reckons the ward could go their way narrowly in a General election. It is worth noting their model only has them on 26% (with the Greens on 19, Conservatives 18, Labour 15). However, while narrowly scraping a win in Patcham might be very possible for them, that's very different to winning votes in the coastal parts of the seat, which they would never do. I think the model is massively overestimating Green -> Brexit swing, which is also why they are shown as very strong on the Isle of Wight (where they'd do well, but not exceptionally well I'd expect). |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2019 10:55:10 GMT
The North Yorkshire predictions are so ridiculous I almost choked on my tea.
|
|
|
|
Post by jacoblamsden on May 6, 2019 15:35:54 GMT
If the Brexit Party are ahead in two wards in Brighton Pavilion, I'll not only eat my hat, I'll eat everyone else's. I dunno, a good friend of mine grew up in Patcham, which is one of the wards they have the Brexit Party winning. He reckons it's a very different place to central Brighton, much more like Sussex as a whole - I believe official figures showed the Leave vote at circa 40%. Apparently there's a fairly big working class Conservative vote, and also a general anti-establishment vote which leans Green. If the Brexit Party took voters from both, he reckons the ward could go their way narrowly in a General election. It is worth noting their model only has them on 26% (with the Greens on 19, Conservatives 18, Labour 15). However, while narrowly scraping a win in Patcham might be very possible for them, that's very different to winning votes in the coastal parts of the seat, which they would never do. I think the model is massively overestimating Green -> Brexit swing, which is also why they are shown as very strong on the Isle of Wight (where they'd do well, but not exceptionally well I'd expect). Yes the Pavilion result makes no sense, especially when comparing it with neighbouring seats. Electoral Calculus predicts 9419 votes for the Brexit Party in Pavilion, yet only 5629 in Kemptown and 5583 in Hove. Whilst I agree with you about Patcham having some potential for the Brexit Party (I think you could also say the same about parts of Hollingdean and Stanmer), I would have thought that the BP would do much better in Kemptown and Hove (particularly in Hangleton and Knoll, Portslade North and South in Hove and Moulscoomb and Beveandean, Woodingdean, Rottingdean and the four Lewes wards in Kemptown). |
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 20, 2019 22:53:32 GMT
Just used Elec Calc to extrapolate a GE based on a dead-heat between the 4 main parties (as we have to say now)
So based on:
CON 22%
LAB 22%
LDM 22%
BRX 22%
gives us...
LAB 202 seats
BRX 188
CON 118
LDM 80
SNP 41
PC 2
GRN 1
NI 18
Interestingly that would make the only feasible coalition would be: LAB202 + LDM 80 + SNP 41 + PC 2 + GRN 1 = 326!
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jun 20, 2019 22:56:38 GMT
Oh and I created a map of the seats based on those results and here it is..
![]()  |
|
