carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jun 20, 2019 23:29:57 GMT
Perhaps worth noting that Electoral Calculus updated their model baseline yesterday to account for the current situation with four parties on ~20%, rather than relying on the 2017 baseline.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2019 10:07:13 GMT
Well done on 1000 posts sir.
(though we all know that is very much a "false" number don't we!)
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 18, 2019 20:44:02 GMT
So I took the average "poll of polls" of all polls since the Euros and fed them into the EC calculator. The upshot was: LAB 235 CON 176 BXP 108 LD 68 SNP 41 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18
Interestingly that would leave a Con/BXP alliance short of a majority, and the only way Lab could form a majority govt would be to incorporate both LD & SNP (hard sell)!
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 18, 2019 20:51:22 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 4, 2019 19:07:28 GMT
A feature which I aim to do each month (if I remind myself!). I will be taking the average polling opinion scores in the calendar month and extrapolating those average percentages into seats using electoral calculus. July 2019
CON 27.0% - 283 SEATS LAB 24.7% - 244 SEATS LDM 18.3% - 55 SEATS BXP 15.7% - 9 SEATS
SNP - 37 SEATS PC 3 SEATS GRN 1 SEAT N.I. 18 SEATS
Despite a decent lead for the Conservatives the only even vaguely feasible coalition would be the much-touted "progressive alliance" but is that even workable under Corbyn?
What changes will we see in the polls in August?
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Post by manchesterman on Aug 4, 2019 19:10:46 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were:
Asnfield
Boston & Skeggy
Carmarthen W & Pemb S
Clwyd W
Clwyd S
Mansfield
Montgomeryshire
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Thurrock
[Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me]
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 4, 2019 19:53:17 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me] Quite - the 4 English ones seem feasible enough, if they were to win seats, but Montgomeryshire and Pembrokeshire? Just don't see it. |
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Post by justin124 on Aug 4, 2019 19:54:32 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me] I would not expect the Brexit Party to win any Welsh seats. Of all the seats listed, Thurrock is the only serious possibility. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Aug 4, 2019 20:01:36 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me]I've noticed that with EC, although I don't know if that's a Plaid Cymru factor (an extra party to potentially allow for Brexit to win seats on lower percentages) or not. |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Aug 4, 2019 20:02:43 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me] Ashfield, Boston, Mansfield and Thurrock are reasonable. However, every other seat is estimated by EC to only have a Brexit vote % in the 50s so are unlikely to have a uniquely strong Brexit Party vote. Their model is reliant on the Brexit Party winning with 25% of the vote while Labour and Tories get just below that. I suspect this won’t happen in practice. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 20:05:54 GMT
A feature which I aim to do each month (if I remind myself!). I will be taking the average polling opinion scores in the calendar month and extrapolating those average percentages into seats using electoral calculus. July 2019
CON 27.0% - 283 SEATS LAB 24.7% - 244 SEATS LDM 18.3% - 55 SEATS BXP 15.7% - 9 SEATS
SNP - 37 SEATS PC 3 SEATS GRN 1 SEAT N.I. 18 SEATS
Despite a decent lead for the Conservatives the only even vaguely feasible coalition would be the much-touted "progressive alliance" but is that even workable under Corbyn?
What changes will we see in the polls in August?
SNP on 37? Is that losing NE Fife and gaining Stirling and a couple of the Scottish Labour seats? Or some other combination? |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Aug 4, 2019 20:11:16 GMT
SNP on 37? Is that losing NE Fife and gaining Stirling and a couple of the Scottish Labour seats? Or some other combination? Very surprised it’s that low tbh. Using UNS on the current polls would lead the SNP to gain 5/6 of the Labour seats and most of the Conservative ones. Suspect it won’t be that bad in the event of an actual election. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Aug 4, 2019 20:15:52 GMT
Just FYI the 9 seats which EC allocated to the Brexit Party were: Asnfield Boston & Skeggy Carmarthen W & Pemb S Clwyd W Clwyd S Mansfield Montgomeryshire Preseli Pembrokeshire Thurrock [Seems to be an overplay of their Welsh popularity to me] Quite - the 4 English ones seem feasible enough, if they were to win seats, but Montgomeryshire and Pembrokeshire? Just don't see it. Probably not Ashfield either if the Ashfield Indies were to stand. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 20:17:46 GMT
SNP on 37? Is that losing NE Fife and gaining Stirling and a couple of the Scottish Labour seats? Or some other combination? Very surprised it’s that low tbh. Using UNS on the current polls would lead the SNP to gain 5/6 of the Labour seats and most of the Conservative ones. Suspect it won’t be that bad in the event of an actual election. I doubt the Conservatives would lose more than four or five seats at worse tbh. I am somewhat cynically hoping for an SNP Gain in East Lothian so that we can hoover up the tactical Unionist vote at the next election with Labour dislodged. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 20:24:15 GMT
Ashfield could be a 4-way marginal next time.
However, the Independents won't break 20% in a GE.
Thurrock is the most likely BXP seat - I think the Tories keep it though.
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Post by justin124 on Aug 4, 2019 20:30:28 GMT
Very surprised it’s that low tbh. Using UNS on the current polls would lead the SNP to gain 5/6 of the Labour seats and most of the Conservative ones. Suspect it won’t be that bad in the event of an actual election. I doubt the Conservatives would lose more than four or five seats at worse tbh. I am somewhat cynically hoping for an SNP Gain in East Lothian so that we can hoover up the tactical Unionist vote at the next election with Labour dislodged. I suspect Boris will shift many tactical Unionist votes back to Labour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 20:31:58 GMT
I doubt the Conservatives would lose more than four or five seats at worse tbh. I am somewhat cynically hoping for an SNP Gain in East Lothian so that we can hoover up the tactical Unionist vote at the next election with Labour dislodged. I suspect Boris will shift many tactical Unionist votes back to Labour. Still, in a lot of Tory seats north of the border Labour are miles behind - look at the North East for example. |
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Post by justin124 on Aug 4, 2019 20:34:19 GMT
I suspect Boris will shift many tactical Unionist votes back to Labour. Still, in a lot of Tory seats north of the border Labour are miles behind - look at the North East for example. In terms of rural seats I agree - but in seats which were Labour-held pre-2015 I would expect the Unionist vote to switch back to Labour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 20:41:03 GMT
Still, in a lot of Tory seats north of the border Labour are miles behind - look at the North East for example. In terms of rural seats I agree - but in seats which were Labour-held pre-2015 I would expect the Unionist vote to switch back to Labour. East Renfrewshire seems hard to hold - 75% Remain and Labour still vaguely competitive. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 20:43:35 GMT
I doubt the Conservatives would lose more than four or five seats at worse tbh. I am somewhat cynically hoping for an SNP Gain in East Lothian so that we can hoover up the tactical Unionist vote at the next election with Labour dislodged. I suspect Boris will shift many tactical Unionist votes back to Labour. If anything I expect the Labour vote to decline further in Scotland. If Boris shifts Unionists anywhere (which I don’t believe he will), it will be the Lib Dems who are the main beneficiaries. |
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