Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2019 21:25:26 GMT
Edinburgh S may be interesting because the Lib Dems are supposed to have done remarkably well there in the EU election. SNP might come through the middle. I'd be amazed if Murray lost here, although could see it much tighter and LDs pushing SNP for 2nd perhaps. Labour are over-performing in Edinburgh South at a Westminster level, it has no business being the safest Labour seat in Scotland. I am somewhat cynically hoping the SNP can gain the constituency, they will be far easier to pick off at some point in the future once the seat is broken out of it's current tactical voting habits. |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 5, 2019 14:22:12 GMT
September 2019
Remember this is an average rounding of all September polls, but incorporating the latest Scottish poll.
Con 32.3% 333 seats Lab 24.9% 207 seats LDem 19.9% 36 seats BXP 12.9% 0 seats
SNP 51 PC 4 Green 1
NI 18
Would give the Tories a Cameron-ish majority and certainly too close to call at this stage.
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sdoerr
Conservative
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Post by sdoerr on Oct 27, 2019 21:22:21 GMT
Current prediction:
CON 34.50% 354
LAB 25.70% 195
LIB 17.50% 31
Brexit 11.70% 0
Green 4.50% 1
SNP 3.20% 48
PlaidC 0.70% 3
UKIP 0.40% 0
Other 2.00% 0
DUP 9
SF 7
Alliance 1
NI Other 1
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 28, 2019 11:14:04 GMT
This is all, of course, total balderdash.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 28, 2019 11:30:47 GMT
This is all, of course, total balderdash. Would not disagree, but that doesn't necessarily mean it is wrong. |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 7, 2019 0:19:30 GMT
It's just a bit of light-relief (a la Peter Snow) - not to be taken as a prediction. Anyway: October 2019
Con 35.9% = 364 seats (+46)
Lab 25.2% = 184 seats (-78)
LD 17.9% = 30 seats (+18)
Others:
SNP 50 seats (+15) PC 3 seats (-1) Green 1 seat (-) Ni 18 seats (-)
This would deliver a handsome Tory majority of 78!  |
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 7, 2019 0:23:41 GMT
Just noticed that one of the Tory gains was of Lindsay Hoyle's seat in Chorley ..which is unlikely in the extreme now!!
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on Nov 7, 2019 0:26:14 GMT
It currently says a 96 Conservative majority - I think that is over-inflated.
Such a long way to go. Anything is possible.
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sdoerr
Conservative
Posts: 149
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Post by sdoerr on Nov 7, 2019 0:36:09 GMT
CON 38.20% 373
LAB 27.20% 182
LIB 15.90% 25
Brexit 10.20% 0
Green 3.20% 1
SNP 3.20% 48
PlaidC 0.70% 3
UKIP 0.20% 0
Other 1.30% 0
DUP 9
SF 7
Alliance 1
NI Other 1
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 7, 2019 9:35:19 GMT
Just noticed that one of the Tory gains was of Lindsay Hoyle's seat in Chorley ..which is unlikely in the extreme now!! It wasn't very likely before he became Speaker. IMHO. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2019 9:40:22 GMT
It's just a bit of light-relief (a la Peter Snow) - not to be taken as a prediction. Anyway: October 2019
Con 35.9% = 364 seats (+46)
Lab 25.2% = 184 seats (-78)
LD 17.9% = 30 seats (+18)
Others:
SNP 50 seats (+15) PC 3 seats (-1) Green 1 seat (-) Ni 18 seats (-)
This would deliver a handsome Tory majority of 78! The SNP won't win 50 seats. They might not win 40. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 17:11:49 GMT
Just had a quick look. Two of said seats that change hands thanks to deal are Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 17:57:50 GMT
Just had a quick look. Two of said seats that change hands thanks to deal are Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan The usual caveat about how Electoral Calculus is full of sh*t, but I have also noticed they tend to have the SNP on the high side - so having us on five Scottish seats and several others very close may not be a bad sign. |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Nov 12, 2019 10:03:45 GMT
Even with a 10-point Tory lead I think Electoral Calculus has the Tory majority on the high side. I'd currently have the majority in the range 0-40.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2019 10:13:50 GMT
Even with a 10-point Tory lead I think Electoral Calculus has the Tory majority on the high side. I'd currently have the majority in the range 0-40. I wouldn't use Electoral Calculus - Flavible is probably better. At the moment, my working assumption is a majority of the order 30-60, but I think it's a bit of a fool's errand making predictions before the close of nominations and until we know what the situation with the Brexit Party is going to be. EDIT I'd give it a week until things have started to settle down. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2019 11:20:28 GMT
They're both rubbish.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2019 11:31:26 GMT
At least Flavible called out the LibDems on blatantly misusing their data.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Nov 12, 2019 18:34:49 GMT
At least Flavible called out the LibDems on blatantly misusing their data. Ha. Flavible should be calling themselves out on blatantly misusing polling companies' data. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2019 19:02:24 GMT
Flavible are nice guys who have taken amateur psephology by storm and are taken way to seriously
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 12, 2019 21:02:35 GMT
Just had a quick look. Two of said seats that change hands thanks to deal are Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan The usual caveat about how Electoral Calculus is full of sh*t, but I have also noticed they tend to have the SNP on the high side - so having us on five Scottish seats and several others very close may not be a bad sign. You think SNP up 0.1% since 2017 is "on the high side"? I would have said it was on the low side.. |
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