Prediction Competition - March 2019

[iainbhx]

Couple of tricky ones this week - especially Thurrock

Basildon, Vange: Lab 53% Con 47%
Durham , Esh & Witton Gilbert: LDm 45% Lab 34% Con 12% Ind 9%
Kensington & Chelsea, Dalgarno: Lab 67% Con 17% LDm 9% Grn 5% UKIP 2%
Newcastle-under-Lyme: Holditch & Chesterton: Lab 48% Ind 25% Con 18% UKIP 7% SDP 2%
Southend-on-Sea, Milton: Lab 50% Con 37% LDm 8% For Britain 5%
Thurrock, Alveley & Uplands: Con 37% Thurrock Ind 30% Lab 28% LDm 5%

[ElectionMapsUK]

Vange: LAB 51, CON 49
Esh & Witton Gilbert: LD 52, LAB 30, CON 10, IND 8
Dalgarno: LAB 62, LD 19, CON 10, GRN 6, UKIP 4
Holditch & Chesterton: LAB 45, CON 31, SDP 10, UKIP 8, IND 6
Milton: LAB 44, CON 38, LD 11, FBR 7
Alveley & Uplands: THIN 39, LAB 27, CON 22, LD 12

[robbienicoll]

Vange, Basildon: Con 48, Lab 52
Esh and Witton Gilbert, Durham: Con 15, Lab 33, LD 44, Ind 8
Dalgarno, Kensington and Chelsea: Con 21, Lab 55, LD 12, Green 8, UKIP 4
Holditch and Chesterton, Newcastle-under-Lyme: Con 16, Lab 56, UKIP 6, SDP 2, Ind 20
Milton, Southend-on-Sea: Con 30, Lab 56, LD 12, FB 2
Alveley and Uplands, Thurrock: Con 38, Lab 40, LD 7, ThurrockInd 15

[Robert Waller]

Basildon BC, Vange: Conservative 45, Labour 55.
Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: Liberal Democrats 53, Labour 28, Conservative 12, Independent (Drion) 7.
Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Labour 68, Liberal Democrats 8, Conservative 18, Green 4, UKIP 2.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Labour 49, Independent (Owen) 24, Conservative 15, UKIP 7, SDP 5.
Southend UA, Milton: Labour 53, Conservative 34, Liberal Democrats 8, For Britain 5.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BASILDON Vange: Lab 59, C 41
DURHAM Esh and Witton Gilbert: L Dem 57, Lab 25, Ind 10, C 8
KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA Dalgarno: Lab 72, C 12, L Dem 8, GP 5, UKIP 3
NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME Holditch and Chesterton: Lab 49, Ind 31, C 10, UKIP 8, SDP 2
SOUTHEND-ON-SEA Milton: Lab 54, C 37, L Dem 5, FB 4
THURROCK Aveley and Uplands: Thurrock Ind 53, C 25, Lab 17, L Dem 5

[Toylyyev]

Basildon BC, Vange: Labour 58, Conservative 42.
Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: Liberal Democrat 53, Labour 26, Conservative 12, Independent 9.
Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Labour 64, Liberal Democrat 15, Conservative 14, Green 4, UKIP 3.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Labour 45, Independent 29, Conservative 11, UKIP 8, SDP 7.
Southend-on-Sea UA, Milton: Labour 49, Conservative 32, Liberal Democrat 14, For Britain 5.
Thurrock UA, Alveley & Uplands: Thurrock Independents 41, Labour 24, Conservative 22, Liberal Democrat 13.

[Toylyyev]

Mar 21, 2019 0:38:32 GMT Robert Waller said:

Basildon BC, Vange: Conservative 45, Labour 55.
Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: Liberal Democrats 53, Labour 28, Conservative 12, Independent (Drion) 7.
Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Labour 68, Liberal Democrats 8, Conservative 18, Green 4, UKIP 2.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Labour 49, Independent (Owen) 24, Conservative 15, UKIP 7, SDP 5.
Southend UA, Milton: Labour 53, Conservative 34, Liberal Democrats 8, For Britain 5.

Thurrock is missing in that prediction. I have added this post to my message because it will likely be noticed earlier.

[zoe]

Basildon Lab 58, Con 42
Durham LD 47 Lab 32 Ind 12 Con 9
RBKC Lab 62 Con 21 LD 9 Grn 7 UKIP 1
Newcastle U L Lab 41 Ind 33 Con 15 UKIP 6 SDP 5
Southend O S Lab 58 Con 29 LD 11 FB 2
Thurrock TI 39 Lab 36 Con 13 LD 12

[olympian95]

Basildon: Lab 56, Con 44

Thurrock: Ind 44, Con 26, Lab 24, LD 6

Kensington & Chelsea: Lab 59, Con 18, LD 15, Green 6, UKIP 2

Durham: LD 56, Lab 31, Con 8, Ind 5

Newcastle under Lyme: Lab 49, Ind 19, Con 17, UKIP 11, SDP 4

Southend: Lab 51, Con 34, LD 9, For Britain 6

[andrewp]

Basildon Vange Lab 60, Con 40
Durham, Esh and Witton Gilbert Lib Dem 51, Lab 30, Con 12, Ind Dixon 7
Kensington and Chelsea, Dalgarno. Lab 72, Con 14, Lib Dem 9, Green 4, UKIP 1
Newcastle Under Lyne, Holditch and Chesterton Lab 54, Ind 17, Con 15, UKIP 11, SDP 3
Southend, Milton Lab 50, Con 34, Lib Dem 11, FB 5
Thurrock, Aveley and Uplands ThurrockInd 42, Con 30, Lab 25, Lib Dem 3

[Right Leaning]

Basildon BC, Vange: Lab 55, C 45.
Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: LD 55, Lab 31, C 10, Ind 4.
Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Lab 59, C 18, LD 17, Gn 4, UKIP 2.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Lab 42, Ind 32, C 14, UKIP 9, SDP 3.
Southend-on-Sea UA, Milton: Lab 48, C 36, LD 11, For Britain 5.
Thurrock UA, Alveley & Uplands: C 35, Th Ind 31, Lab 26, LD 8.

[greatkingrat]

Basildon - Lab 58, Con 42
Durham - LD 58, Lab 25, Con 12, Ind 5
Kensington & Chelsea - Lab 62, Con 17, LD 13, Grn 5, UKIP 3
Newcastle-under-Lyme - Lab 52, Ind 20, Con 16, UKIP 8, SDP 4
Southend-on-Sea - Lab 50, Con 35, LD 10, FB 5
Thurrock - Ind 38, Con 29, Lab 26, LD 7

[hempie]

Basildon Vange: Lab 57, Con 43
Durham, Esh and Witton Gilbert: LD 49, Lab 31, Con 14, Ind 6
Kensington and Chelsea, Dalgarno: Lab 70, Con 14, LD 10, Green 4, UKIP 2
Newcastle Under Lyme, Holditch and Chesterton: Lab 52, Ind 19, Con 17, UKIP 10, SDP 2
Southend, Milton: Lab 49, Con 33, LD 14, FB 4
Thurrock, Aveley and Uplands: Thurrock Ind 39, Con 30, Lab 27, LD 4

[jamesrodriguez]

Basildon, Vange: Lab 54, Con 46
Durham, Esh & Witton Gilbert: LD 51, Lab 34, Con 11, Ind 4
Kensington & Chelsea, Dalgarno: Lab 61, LD 20, Con 19
Newcastle Under Lyme, Holditch & Chesterton: Lab 41, Ind 28, Con 19, UKIP 8, SDP 4
Southend, Milton: Lab 46, Con 39, LD 11, FB 4
Thurrock, Aveley & Uplands: Con 38, Thurrock Ind 36, Lab 22, LD 4

[Robert Waller]

Thurrock UA, Alveley & Uplands: Thurrock Independents 35, Labour 30, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrat 5.

I did originally put this in at the same time as the others but must have wiped it somehow ..

[middleenglander]

17 entrants this week (plus John Loony) with nothing from edgbaston and ricmk. Robert Waller gets 10 additional faults for posting the Thurrock, Aveley & Uplands prediction over an hour late whilst electionmapsuk gets 1 additional fault for adding to 101% in Kensington & Chelsea, Dalgarno.

John Loony's predictions are likely to incur over 1,000 faults in total so I will post as last week. He did this kind of thing several years ago before dropping out after a few weeks.

Basildon, Vange: 16 Labour hold, share from 51% (electionmapsUK) to 60% (andrewp) with greenrobinhood Conservative gain
Durham, Esh & Witton Gilbert: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, majority over Labour from 11% (iainbhx & robbienicoll) to 38.7% (Tony Otim)
Kensington & Chelsea, Dalgarno: 100% Labour hold, majority from 34% (robbienicoll over Conservative) to 60% (David Boothroyd over Conservative)
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Holditch & Chesterton: 16 Labour hold, majority from 5% (priceofdawn over Conservative) to 37% (andrewp over Independent)
Tony Otim Independent gain
Southend-on-Sea, Milton: 100% Labour hold, majority over Conservative from 5% (priceofdawn) to 29% (Zoe)
Thurrock, Aveley & Uplands: 12 Thurrock Independent hold, iainbhx, jamesrodriguez, priceofdawn & Right Leaning Conservative gain robbienicoll Labour gain

[Pete Whitehead]

It's Aveley

[Robert Waller]

With just Kensington to come tonight, on my rough reckoning Tony Otim and Right Leaning are doing best so far this week, and James Rodriguez, Iainbhx, and Right Leaning hold the first three monthly positions in a contest which is still tight - though James seems to have omitted to predict a couple of candidates in Dalgarno.

Edit after the Kensington result: I don't think it makes a substantial difference to my estimates above, and we await the authoritative figures from Middleenglander.

[middleenglander]

Week 3:

Authority	Basildon	Durham	Kensington &   Chelsea	Newcastle-   under-Lyme	Southend      on Sea	Thurrock	Week 3	Week 3
Ward	Vange	Esh &   Witton Gilbert	Dalgarno	Holditch & Chesterton	Milton	Aveley & Uplands	faults	position
andrewp	17.4	28.0	33.4	49.3+10	4.9	27.4+10	180.3	14th
David Boothroyd	15.4	12.4	34.0	27.3+10	18.9	47.6+10	175.6	12th
edgbaston	100	100	100	100	100	100	600	18th
greatkingrat	13.4	18.0	17.5	49.3+10	6.9	29.2+10	154.3	5th
greenrobinhood	6.6+10	16.0	29.5	45.3+10	10.5	25.2+10	163.2	8th
hempie	11.4	34.0	29.4	47.3+10	4.5	27.2+10	173.7	11th
iainbhx	3.4	36.4	24.0	41.3+10	10.9	15.4	141.3	4th
jamesrodriguez	5.4	34.0	28.9	33.3+10	14.7	11.6	137.9	3rd
Olympian95	9.4	22.0	17.5	45.3+10	8.2	35.2+10	157.6	7th
priceofdawn	3.4	26.4	27.5	52.0+10	19.8	29.4	168.5	10th
ricmk	100	100	100	100	100	100	600	18th
Right Leaning	7.4	26.0	18.9	23.3+10	8.7	17.4	111.6	1st
robbienicoll	1.4	40.0	8.2	53.3+10	12.2	43.4+10	178.3	13th
Robert Waller	7.4	24.0	25.4	43.3+10	10.9	27.2+10+10	168.1	9th
syorkssocialist	11.4	24.0	26.0	77.3+10	18.7	35.4+10	212.8	17th
Tony Otim	6.6	13.4	20.7	20.6	10.3	36.0+10	117.6	2nd
Toylyyev	13.4	20.4	24.9	31.3+10	2.5	43.2+10	155.7	6th
Zoe	13.4	32.4	18.0	27.3+10	16.2	61.2+10	188.4	15th
electionmapsuk	0.6	24.0	30.5+1	77.3+10	16.1	43.2+10	212.7	16th
Total	346.8+10	631.4	614.5+1	944.0+160	395.0	755.1+130+10	3,997.7
John Loony	102.6+10	173.5+10	132.9+10	176.0+10	167.8+10	153.8+10	966.6	20th

[middleenglander]

Weeks 1 to 3:

Authority	Weeks 1 & 2	Week 3	Week 1 - 3	Week 1 to 3
Ward	faults	faults	faults	position
andrewp	167.7	180.3	348.1	11th
David Boothroyd	182.2	175.6	357.8	12th
Edgbaston	151.0	600	751.0	18th
greatkingrat	185.3	154.3	339.5	8th
greenrobinhood	149.7	163.2	312.8	4th
hempie	160.0	173.7	333.7	6th
iainbhx	150.1	141.3	291.5	3rd
jamesrodriguez	152.4	137.9	290.3	2nd
Olympian95	201.1	157.6	358.7	13th
priceofdawn	175.9	168.5	344.4	10th
ricmk	212.4	600	812.4	19th
Right Leaning	174.1	111.6	285.7	1st
robbienicoll	206.6	178.3	384.9	15th
Robert Waller	167.4	168.1	335.5	7th
syorkssocialist	213.7	212.8	426.5	17th
Tony Otim	203.5	117.6	321.1	5th
Toylyyev	188.4	155.7	344.0	9th
Zoe	195.8	188.4	384.3	14th
electionmapsuk	202.1	212.7	414.8	16th
Total	3,439.4	3,997.7	7,437.1
John Loony	489.1	966.6	1,455.7	20th

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 2 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday