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Post by yellowperil on Mar 14, 2019 17:23:31 GMT
19 entrants this week with electionmapsuk and Olympian95 posting on time. David Boothroyd gets 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in Southampton, Croxford whilst electionmapsuk get 4 additional faults for adding to 96% in Durham, Wingate. Zoe has 2 Liberal Democrats (11% and 3%) but no Socialist Alternative in Croxford and I have generously allowed the 3% to be the Socialist Alternative prediction. I have also given electionmapsuk 100 faults last week rather than 119.5 on the basis that he did not make a prediction instead one that was very late. In this way he is not disadvantage against Olympian95 who made no prediction. Croydon, Norbury & Pollards Hill: 100% Labour hold, majority from 25% (Toylyyev over Liberal Democrat) to 49% (jamesrodriguez over Conservative) Durham, Wingate: 100% Labour hold, majority from 25% (ricmk over North East) to 66% (edgbaston over both Liberal Democrat & North East) Southampton, Croxford: 18 Labour gain from Independent, majority from 5% (Toyllev over Liberal Democrat) to 33.9% (Tony Otim over Conservative) - yorkssocialist an Independent hold We are away again tonight puppy sitting. Results will be posted officially sometime tomorrow afternoon / evening. I think this means you have not included the entries from johnloony ? How very disappointing  |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 14, 2019 18:13:21 GMT
I will report his score separately.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 14, 2019 19:21:03 GMT
I will report his score separately. No you won't. I have entered the competition properly and fully, in the normal way, according to the rules. I did not miss the deadline and I gave a % prediction for each candidate in each of the 3 by-elections. You will therefore amend your impertinent, incomplete summary above in order to include my entry in the normal way. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 14, 2019 19:49:33 GMT
I will report his score separately. No you fucking well won't. I have entered the competition properly and fully, in the normal way, according to the rules. I did not miss the deadline and I gave a % prediction for each candidate in each of the 3 by-elections. You will therefore amend your impertinent, incomplete summary above in order to include my entry in the normal way. John, don't get abusive with middleenglander please. He does a great job . |
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 14, 2019 20:22:13 GMT
I will report his score separately. No you fucking well won't. I have entered the competition properly and fully, in the normal way, according to the rules. I did not miss the deadline and I gave a % prediction for each candidate in each of the 3 by-elections. You will therefore amend your impertinent, incomplete summary above in order to include my entry in the normal way. John, you would have been better off waiting for middleenglander to start his thread before you created yours (now merged into middleenglander's) just one hour or so earlier. If he considers that you should be disqualified for this - and for now using abusive language towards him - that is entirely down to his discretion. Perhaps an apology and a polite request for inclusion in the competition wouldn't go amiss. Middleenglander takes charge of this competition out of kindness, not obligation. |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 15, 2019 2:47:54 GMT
No you fucking well won't. I have entered the competition properly and fully, in the normal way, according to the rules. I did not miss the deadline and I gave a % prediction for each candidate in each of the 3 by-elections. You will therefore amend your impertinent, incomplete summary above in order to include my entry in the normal way. John, you would have been better off waiting for middleenglander to start his thread before you created yours (now merged into middleenglander's) just one hour or so earlier. If he considers that you should be disqualified for this - and for now using abusive language towards him - that is entirely down to his discretion. Perhaps an apology and a polite request for inclusion in the competition wouldn't go amiss. Middleenglander takes charge of this competition out of kindness, not obligation. I was waiting for several days waiting for the March prediction thread to appear, so that I could post my prediction for the by-election in Croydon. In the absence of the normal thread appearing, I chose to create a thread instead of waiting for a further arbitrarily large number of days. It is perverse and inaccurate to say that I created my thread "one hour or so earlier (than)" middleenglander created his thread, since I am not psychic and I can't predict the future. It is entirely accurate to say that middleenglander created his thread one hour or so later than mine. I have no idea whether he created his thread as a result of being prompted/reminded to do so by the appearance of mine, or whether he was intending to create his thread at about that time anyway, but the fact remains that his thread appeared at a very late stage, several days after the start of the month, and weeks after the start of some of the relevant by-election campaigns. It was therefore entirely reasonable for me to start a thread for the purpose instead of being expected to wait increasingly impatiently for a thread which I did not know when it was going to appear. As I pointed out at the time, nobody has a monopoly on starting threads. People may have noticed that I do not normally make predictions in the prediction competitions; that is entirely connected to the fact that there is not normally a by-election in Croydon. For the benefit of the people who have not been paying attention, I repeat: I made predictions for all three by-elections which were happening this week (although I was not particularly interested in two of them (which is why I did not bother to think too much about what my predictions would be for the other two)); I specified percentages for all the candidates in all three of those by-elections, and I made my predictions well in time for the deadline. There is therefore no logical reason for middleenglander to omit or exclude my entirely legitimate predictions from his summary of what people predicted, or to state (untruthfully) that there were only 19 entries when there were in fact 20. That he did omit and exclude them was therefore impertinent, arbitrary and discourteous. So therefore I repeat, for the benefit of anybody who has not been paying attention: middleenglander will indeed amend his summary further up the thread, in order to include my predictions, as he should have done in the first place. I notice that finsobruce and AdminSTB have stated that middleenglander organises the competition "out of kindness, not obligation", and (supposedly) that he "does a great job". I am fully well aware of that fact, and I have never written anything to suggest or imply that I think otherwise. I also notice that AdminSTB suggests "Perhaps an apology and a polite request for inclusion in the competition wouldn't go amiss". If middleenglander wants me to apologise to him for using the F-word, then he will first apologise to me for unfairly, arbitrarily, illogically and with no rational basis, excluding my contribution from the summary which he listed earlier in the thread. In very general terms, I would politely point out to anybody and everybody that I only ever use the F-word, or otherwise use swear words, if and when other people choose to make it necessary for me to do so. |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 15, 2019 12:48:54 GMT
Upon reflection, and having slept on it, I apologise to middleenglander for using the F-word. I do not apologise for, or withdraw, any of my other criticisms, all of which were factually and logically true and fully justified. Accordingly I expect my contribution to the predikshun competition to be included in the normal way. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 15, 2019 17:07:39 GMT
Week 2:| Authority | Week 1 | Croydon | Durham | Southampton | Week 2 | Week 2 | Week 1 & 2 | Week 1 & 2 | | Ward | faults | Norbury &
Pollard Hill | Wingate | Coxford | faults | position | faults | position | andrewp | 59.6 | 18.9 | 33.6 | 55.7 | 108.2 | 6th | 167.7 | 7th | David Boothroyd | 49.6 | 32.9 | 37.7 | 61.0+1 | 132.6 | 16th | 182.2 | 10th | Edgbaston | 55.5 | 23.2 | 26.3 | 46.0 | 95.5 | 1st | 151.0
| 3rd | greatkingrat | 63.5 | 22.9 | 37.2 | 61.7 | 121.8 | 12th | 185.3 | 11th | greenrobinhood | 29.5 | 22.9 | 35.6 | 61.7 | 120.2 | 11th | 149.7 | 1st | hempie | 47.6 | 23.2 | 31.6 | 57.7 | 112.5 | 9th | 160.0 | 5th | iainbhx | 53.6 | 26.9 | 33.6 | 36.1 | 96.6 | 2nd | 150.1 | 2nd | jamesrodriguez | 41.6 | 17.2 | 39.7 | 53.9 | 110.8 | 7th | 152.4 | 4th | | Olympian95 | 100 | 15.4 | 33.7 | 52.0 | 101.1 | 3rd | 201.1 | 14th | priceofdawn | 71.6 | 44.5 | 26.3 | 33.6 | 104.4 | 5th | 175.9 | 9th | ricmk | 69.6 | 27.4 | 43.7 | 71.7 | 142.8 | 17th | 212.4 | 18th | Right Leaning | 61.6 | 24.9 | 27.6 | 60.0 | 112.5 | 10th | 174.1 | 8th | robbienicoll | 81.6 | 32.2 | 35.2 | 57.7 | 125.0 | 15th | 206.6 | 17th | Robert Waller | 55.6 | 20.4 | 29.6 | 61.9 | 111.9 | 8th | 167.4 | 6th | syorkssocialist | 69.6 | 26.9 | 39.7 | 67.6 +10 | 144.2 | 18th | 213.7 | 19th | Tony Otim | 78.6 | 23.9 | 35.0 | 66.1 | 125.0 | 14th | 203.5 | 16th | Toylyyev | 41.6 | 51.2 | 45.3 | 50.3 | 146.8 | 19th | 188.4 | 12th | Zoe | 73.6 | 30.9 | 35.7 | 55.7 | 122.3 | 13th | 195.8 | 13th | electionmapsuk | 100 | 30.9 | 21.6+4 | 45.6 | 102.1 | 4th | 202.1 | 15th | Total | 1,203.2 | 516.5 | 648.7+4 | 1,056.0+1+10 | 2,236.2 |
| 3,439.4 |
| | John Loony | 100 | 18.9 | 154.4+10 | 195.8+10 | 389.1 | 20th | 489.1 | 20th |
Objections please by noon Sunday. There are 6 by-elections next week. Objections on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 15, 2019 17:39:10 GMT
Oh heck, I'd better put my thinking cap on for next week.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 15, 2019 17:41:03 GMT
Oh heck, I'd better put my thinking cap on for next week. Maybe you do better without it? |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 15, 2019 18:46:38 GMT
Oh heck, I'd better put my thinking cap on for next week. Maybe you do better without it? This is very true. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 15, 2019 19:04:11 GMT
I am surprised to still be 1st this month given how badly I did this week in terms of predictions; the Coxford result was a big surprise in particular.
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Post by edgbaston on Mar 16, 2019 1:26:09 GMT
I am surprised to still be 1st this month given how badly I did this week in terms of predictions; the Coxford result was a big surprise in particular. I am surprised to be riding high on 3rd. Long may our luck last! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 16, 2019 14:10:31 GMT
Edgbaston, you are up there because you won the week!
Congratulations, to Iainbhx as well, it is always good to see some relative newcomers doing so well.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 16, 2019 16:25:44 GMT
Edgbaston, you are up there because you won the week! Congratulations, to Iainbhx as well, it is always good to see some relative newcomers doing so well. bit much to call iainbhx a relative newcomer  |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 19, 2019 23:53:08 GMT
I predict
Basildon: Con 100 Lab 0
Durham: Con 94 Ind 3 LD 2 Lab 1
K&Ch: Con 90 Green 4 UKIP 3 LD 2 Lab 1
Newcastle-u-L: SDP 90 Ind 4 UKIP 3 Con 2 Lab 1
Southend: LD 97 Con 2 Lab 1 FB 0
Thurrock: Lad 80 Lab 10 Con 7 ThInd 3
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 20, 2019 21:00:40 GMT
I have really no idea how voters are going to react to everything at the moment, so I expect to do even worse than usual this week, but here goes anyway:
Basildon: Lab 54.6; Con 45.4
Durham: LD 61.0; Lab 22.3; Con 12.4; Ind 4.3
Kensington & Chelsea: Lab 57.8; LD 16.5; Con 13.3; Grn 7.3; UKIP 5.1
Newcastle Under lyme: Ind 35.3; Lab 33.1; UKIP 14.5; Con 12.4; SDP 4.7
Southend: Lab 50.5; Con 36.2; LD 9.2; For Britain 4.1
Thurrock: Thurrock Ind 45.0; Con 26.2; Lab 21.6; LD 7.2
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Post by greenhert on Mar 20, 2019 21:43:16 GMT
Basildon BC, Vange: Conservative 52, Labour 48.
Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: Liberal Democrats 59, Labour 24, Conservative 12, Independent (Drion) 5.
Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Labour 63, Liberal Democrats 18, Conservative 12, Green 5,UKIP 2.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Labour 48, Independent (Owen) 23, Conservative 20, UKIP 7, SDP 2.
Southend UA, Milton: Labour 47, Conservative 36, Liberal Democrats 14, For Britain 3.
Thurrock UA, Aveley & Uplands: Thurrock Independent 40, Conservative 31, Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 4.
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Post by syorkssocialist on Mar 20, 2019 21:49:11 GMT
Basildon, Vange: Lab 57%, Con 43%
Durham, Esh & Witton Gilbert: LD 58%, Lab 25%, Con 15%, Ind 2%
Kensington & Chelsea, Dalgarno: Lab 68%, Con 18%, LD 6%, Green 5%, UKIP 3%
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Holditch & Chesterton: Lab 44%, Con 24%, SDP 18%, UKIP 8%, Ind 6%
Southend-on-Sea, Milton: Lab 48%, Con 41%, LD 7%, For Britain 4%
Thurrock, Alveley & Uplands: Thurrock Ind 47%, Con 26%, Lab 24%, LD 3%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2019 21:57:10 GMT
Basildon, Vange: Lab 53%, Con 47%
Durham, Esh & Witton Gilbert: LD 50%, Lab 30, Con 10, Ind 10%
Kensington & Chelsea, Dalgarno: Lab 60%, Con 10%, LD 15%, Green 10%, UKIP 5%
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Holditch & Chesterton: Lab 35%, Con 30%, SDP 5%, UKIP 5%, Ind 25%
Southend-on-Sea, Milton: Lab 40%, Con 35%, LD 15%, For Britain 10%
Thurrock, Alveley & Uplands: Thurrock Ind 25%, Con 35%, Lab 30%, LD 10%
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