Prediction Competition - March 2019

[ricmk]

Aylesbury: Con 48 Green 21 LD 20 Lab 11

[Right Leaning]

AYLESBURY VALE Haddenham and Stone: C 51, Gn 25, LD 18, Lab 6

[hempie]

Aylesbury Vale, Haddenham and Stone: Con 45, Green 32, LD 15, Lab 8

[jamesrodriguez]

Aylesbury Vale, Haddenham & Stone: Con 42, Grn 35, LD 15, Lab 8.

[olympian95]

Overslept because of jet lag

[middleenglander]

17 entrants this week with Zoe making a return after several years absence. electionmapsuk, europeanlefty, Peterl and Yellow Peril are no shows whilst Olympian95 overslept.

Aylesbury Vale, Haddenham & Stone:
16 Conservative hold - 13 Green second, 3 Liberal Democrat - majority from 7% (jamesrodriguez over Green) to 42% (Robbienicoll over Liberal Democrat)with greenrobinhood Green gain.

We are again away overnight so official result should be posted Friday afternoon.

[ElectionMapsUK]

Can I still enter? I know I'll get penalty points but I'll have a go anyway:

CON: 54, GRN 22, LDM 13, LAB 11

[Robert Waller]

Green gain:

Greenrobinhood wins the week, followed by Toylyyev and James Rodriguez, then Hempie and David Boothroyd.

I think ...

[yellowperil]

Congratulations to the Greens and to Greenrobinhood in particular. I am taking a sabbatical from competing here for a bit, but my private forecast would have been with the majority here expecting a strong second for the Greens as the best they could reasonably expect....

[hempie]

Well done to greenrobinhood for predicting a Green win. I knew a lot of hard work was being done in the ward and there was a great candidate, just didn't have the courage to go for a predicted win. Happy to take the 10 points penalty for a wrong winner prediction if it means a Green victory!

[Tony Otim]

Mar 8, 2019 11:05:17 GMT hempie said:

Well done to greenrobinhood for predicting a Green win. I knew a lot of hard work was being done in the ward and there was a great candidate, just didn't have the courage to go for a predicted win. Happy to take the 10 points penalty for a wrong winner prediction if it means a Green victory!

Likewise...

[andrewp]

Mar 8, 2019 0:50:03 GMT Robert Waller said:

Green gain:

Greenrobinhood wins the week, followed by Toylyyev and James Rodriguez, then Hempie and David Boothroyd.

I think ...

I get James Rodriguez second and Toylyyev third. But I might be wrong 

[middleenglander]

Week 1:

Authority	Aylesbury Vale	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Haddenham & Stone	faults	position
andrewp	49.6+10	59.6	9th
David Boothroyd	39.6+10	49.6	5th
edgbaston	45.5+10	55.5	7th
greatkingrat	53.5+10	63.5	11th
greenrobinhood	29.5	29.5	1st
hempie	37.6+10	47.6	4th
iainbhx	43.6+10	53.6	6th
jamesrodriguez	31.6+10	41.6	2nd=
priceofdawn	61.6+10	71.6	14th
ricmk	59.6+10	69.6	13th
Right Leaning	51.6+10	61.6	10th
robbienicoll	71.6+10	81.6	17th
Robert Waller	45.6+10	55.6	8th
syorkssocialist	59.6+10	69.6	12th
Tony Otim	68.6+10	78.6	16th
Toylyyev	31.6+10	41.6	2nd=
Zoe	63.6+10	73.6	15th
electionmapsuk	59.5+10+50	119.5	18th
Total	902.7+170+50	1,122.7

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

[Toylyyev]

Mar 4, 2019 14:48:03 GMT johnloony said:

Croydon, Norbury & Pollards Hill
I predict
Lab 63% Con 19% LD 7% Green 5% UKIP 3% Ind Poz 2% Ind O'G 1%

Can you tell us more. e.g. how about Southampton UA, Coxford: Labour 36, Liberal Democrat 30, Conservative 22, Green 3, Socialist Alternative 3, UKIP 3, Integrity Southampton 2, Independent 1?

[The Bishop]

I think that johnloony makes that particular prediction because he is a Croydon BC resident.

[ricmk]

Mar 8, 2019 22:45:26 GMT middleenglander said:

Week 1:

Authority	Aylesbury Vale	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Haddenham & Stone	faults	position
andrewp	49.6+10	59.6	9th
David Boothroyd	39.6+10	49.6	5th
edgbaston	45.5+10	55.5	7th
greatkingrat	53.5+10	63.5	11th
greenrobinhood	29.5	29.5	1st
hempie	37.6+10	47.6	4th
iainbhx	43.6+10	53.6	6th
jamesrodriguez	31.6+10	41.6	2nd=
priceofdawn	61.6+10	71.6	14th
ricmk	59.6+10	69.6	13th
Right Leaning	51.6+10	61.6	10th
robbienicoll	71.6+10	81.6	17th
Robert Waller	45.6+10	55.6	8th
syorkssocialist	59.6+10	69.6	12th
Tony Otim	68.6+10	78.6	16th
Toylyyev	31.6+10	41.6	2nd=
Zoe	63.6+10	73.6	15th
electionmapsuk	59.5+10+50	119.5	18th
Total	902.7+170+50	1,122.7

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

Does electionmaps really need to be penalised for having a go? He knew he was late but still wanted to join in?  Seems to me that it would be fairer to regard his prediction as non-competitive and award 100 points.

[Toylyyev]

Croydon LBC, Norbury & Pollards Hill: Labour 49, Liberal Democrat 24, Conservative 14, Green 9, UKIP 2, Independent O’Grady 1, Independent Roznerska 1.
Durham UA, Wingate: Labour 63, North East Party 33, Liberal Democrat 2, For Britain 2.
Southampton UA, Coxford: Labour 34, Liberal Democrat 29, Conservative 26, Green 3, UKIP 3, Socialist Alternative 3, Integrity Southampton 1, Independent 1.

[johnloony]

Mar 9, 2019 5:51:06 GMT Toylyyev said:

Mar 4, 2019 14:48:03 GMT johnloony said:

Croydon, Norbury & Pollards Hill
I predict
Lab 63% Con 19% LD 7% Green 5% UKIP 3% Ind Poz 2% Ind O'G 1%

Can you tell us more. e.g. how about Southampton UA, Coxford: Labour 36, Liberal Democrat 30, Conservative 22, Green 3, Socialist Alternative 3, UKIP 3, Integrity Southampton 2, Independent 1?

If you insist.
Durham: Lib Dem 100%, all others 0%
Southampton: Green 100%, all others 0%

[syorkssocialist]

Croydon, Norbury & Pollards Hill:
Lab 58%, Con 18%, LD 11%, Green 5%, UKIP 4%, Ind Roznerska 2%, Ind O'Grady 2%

Durham, Wingate:
Lab 57%, NEP 28%, LD 10%, For Britain 5%

Southampton, Coxford:
Ind 38%, Lab 28%, Con 15%, LD 6%, Integrity Southampton 4%, UKIP 4%, Green 3%, Socialist Alternative 2%

[Tony Otim]

CROYDON: Lab 59.8; Con 19.3; LD 8.3; Grn 5.5; UKIP 3.4; O'Grady 2.2; Roznerska 1.5
DURHAM: Lab 73.0; NEP 18.9; LD 5.4; For Britain 2.7
SOUTHAMPTON: Lab 56.3; Con 22.4; LD 5.5; UKIP 4.8; Grn 3.5; Soc Alt 3.4; Lambert 2.5; Int 1.6