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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2018 20:45:15 GMT
Lots of doubt, as the majority of Italians arrived in 1880-1890, and most Spaniards between 1905 and 1919. But there were other immigrants in the 1930s and after the war, some at least would have held such views. Was it as coincidence that the military dictatorships followed, I personally feel not. Well, yes, but you could say the same about a lot of places that didn't have military dictatorships. I'm fairly certain you're seeing a coincidence here where none exists. Brazil has a long-standing history of military dictatorships, and the Old Republic was basically a military dictatorship, overthrown by another military coup, then Vargas appeared with his own semi-fascist system, then Vargas was removed by another military coup. In a country where the army fought a naval battle with the navy, where military coups have been an integral part of history, blaming Italian and Spanish immigrants of the Thirties for yet another military coup in the Sixties is a stretch to say the least. Especially as many of the top brass of the coup had strong links back to Vargas, notably Filho, who was a quite definite fascist. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 9, 2018 21:34:45 GMT
Yes it's probably more analogous to the Philippines and Duterte than to USA and Trump. And it's not analogous at all to 1933 Germany. Given the levers of a bankrupt state pining for totalitarianism of one sort or another I think Duterte would be like Hitler actually... |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 9, 2018 21:44:35 GMT
The obvious comparison, particularly given the ties to the military, would be with Imran Khan.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2018 22:05:30 GMT
The obvious comparison, particularly given the ties to the military, would be with Imran Khan. Fujimori sprang to mind as well. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 9, 2018 22:12:50 GMT
Haddad has gone to see Lula in gaol. That feels like a massive blunder. There are obvious risks there, but Lula is more popular than Haddad and being seen as His Candidate is important in order to get the rural poor to the polls. It's a tricky balancing act... |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 10, 2018 7:12:32 GMT
I don’t know who your “Brazilian contacts” are, I’m assuming family?, but that’s daft. I’m not aware of Bolsonaro, as repulsive as he undoubtedly is, advocating the invasion, occupation, annexation and the genocidal annihilation of whole people’s and then their colonisation by Brazilians.Not quite so far off as you might suppose - he has argued that reserves for indigenous peoples should be opened up to mining companies. That is not far off colonisation; the indigenous peoples themselves seem to believe that they are under realistic threat of genocide, and the history of Brazil and Latin America generally does nothing to suggest those fears are baseless. I don’t agree with Bolsonaro mining the Amazon, nor any mining in indigenous land, but Adam it is hyperbole to suggest that it’s “not quite so far off as you might suppose” in relation to the Holocaust. Bolsonaro is not Hitler, he is not going to attempt to industrially, genocidally annihilate Amazonians. It’s partly because of that kind of hyperbole why people don’t take seriously the warning signs of autocratic demagogues, like Bolsonaro. I appreciate what you’re trying to say but I, as I said above, and I suspect most people, switch off when people raise the spectre of Hitler. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2018 7:34:06 GMT
My quoting of the Hitler analogy seemed to create quite a debate one way or the other... clearly Brazil 2018 is not the same thing as Germany 1933 and nobody in their right mind would want to push the analogy too far. The original point was, I think, that Bolsonaro is not like Trump as a non-ideological loose cannon, but more like Hitler in having a somewhat deranged and dangerous narrow ideology.
It really doesn't look to me as though Bolsonaro can be stopped now and agreed the PT have contributed massively to that through corruption and ill-government. There is a very faint hope in some of the earlier polling which showed how high the negative polling for Bolsonaro was compared with that for Haddad, but the numbers just look impossible to me. The outcome looks increasingly like a hopeless and futile civil war.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 10, 2018 7:45:26 GMT
Not quite so far off as you might suppose - he has argued that reserves for indigenous peoples should be opened up to mining companies. That is not far off colonisation; the indigenous peoples themselves seem to believe that they are under realistic threat of genocide, and the history of Brazil and Latin America generally does nothing to suggest those fears are baseless. I don’t agree with Bolsonaro mining the Amazon, nor any mining in indigenous land, but Adam it is hyperbole to suggest that it’s “not quite so far off as you might suppose” in relation to the Holocaust. Bolsonaro is not Hitler, he is not going to attempt to industrially, genocidally annihilate Amazonians. It’s partly because of that kind of hyperbole why people don’t take seriously the warning signs of autocratic demagogues, like Bolsonaro. I appreciate what you’re trying to say but I, as I said above, and I suspect most people, switch off when people raise the spectre of Hitler. Why do you think this? He has displayed rank hostility towards them more than any other racial group, and has promised bloodshed. Do you think that bloodshed will be indiscriminate? If Corbyn can be described as Marxist, I don't see why Bolsonaro can't be compared to Hitler. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Oct 10, 2018 7:46:04 GMT
Why do you think there will be civil war? Do you think that the losing socialists and liberals will be so outraged by losing that they take up arms and launch an insurrection? Seems unlikely to me.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 10, 2018 7:47:41 GMT
Why do you think there will be civil war? Do you think that the losing socialists and liberals will be so outraged by losing that they take up arms and launch an insurrection? Seems unlikely to me. I think there will be civil war because he promised it as the only means of change. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 10, 2018 7:51:38 GMT
Not quite so far off as you might suppose - he has argued that reserves for indigenous peoples should be opened up to mining companies. That is not far off colonisation; the indigenous peoples themselves seem to believe that they are under realistic threat of genocide, and the history of Brazil and Latin America generally does nothing to suggest those fears are baseless. I don’t agree with Bolsonaro mining the Amazon, nor any mining in indigenous land, but Adam it is hyperbole to suggest that it’s “not quite so far off as you might suppose” in relation to the Holocaust. Bolsonaro is not Hitler, he is not going to attempt to industrially, genocidally annihilate Amazonians. It’s partly because of that kind of hyperbole why people don’t take seriously the warning signs of autocratic demagogues, like Bolsonaro. I appreciate what you’re trying to say but I, as I said above, and I suspect most people, switch off when people raise the spectre of Hitler. No, he's not going to instigate death camps (I presume) - nor start annexing neighbouring territories, or recklessly risk starting a major war, so I agree the Hitler comparison is risky. It was your point about colonisation which I think is "not far off" - his approach to the indigenous peoples and their land rights seems to me "not too far off" colonialism (or dare I say lebensraum). If there were to be any genocide I don't suppose it would be a deliberate attempt to exterminate a people simply for the crime of belonging to a different race - or the vindictiveness of the holocaust when it was clear that the war was already lost; more a by-product of land-theft from people who he regards as valueless. But he does look significantly nastier than e.g. Trump or Salvini. As an ignoramus on Brazil, I'd have thought the obvious comparator would be the military regimes of the 70s which he seems to admire. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 10, 2018 8:07:11 GMT
Probably the regime, but his icon like the rest of Brazil's authoritarian types is probably Vargas.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 10, 2018 8:07:46 GMT
I don't think there's been any discussion of how Bolsonaro might govern. The President doesn't have untrammelled powers and the parallel elections for Congress and state governors (while certainly showing progress for his small party) indicate that he will need to assemble quite a wide coalition if he is to make govern effectively. That is unless the army gets more involved. And of course Brazilian politics is pretty flexible....
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 10, 2018 8:16:28 GMT
Why do you think there will be civil war? Do you think that the losing socialists and liberals will be so outraged by losing that they take up arms and launch an insurrection? Seems unlikely to me. A lot of my contacts are in the Northeast states and the sense of despair there is palpable- outraged is not quite the right word, more a feeling there is nothing left to live for, and it could well manifest itself in a hopeless uprising. I hope to God it doesn't as it would be doomed from the start. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 10, 2018 8:20:16 GMT
I note comments from Bolsonaro overnight about other countries seeking to break off states from Brazil. This is straight from the Vargas playbook.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 10, 2018 10:03:38 GMT
Why do you think there will be civil war? Do you think that the losing socialists and liberals will be so outraged by losing that they take up arms and launch an insurrection? Seems unlikely to me. I think there will be civil war because he promised it as the only means of change. Rhetoric - hopefully. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 10, 2018 10:04:14 GMT
Probably the regime, but his icon like the rest of Brazil's authoritarian types is probably Vargas. Though wasn't Vargas actually "left wing" in some respects (not unlike Peron, really) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 10, 2018 10:31:28 GMT
Probably the regime, but his icon like the rest of Brazil's authoritarian types is probably Vargas. Though wasn't Vargas actually "left wing" in some respects (not unlike Peron, really) Yes, very syncretic. His inspiration was initially Salazar then moved on. His repression of minorities is an interesting one- is it right-wing nationalist or left-wing, given the positivist circles he moved in and the love of Third Republic France with its destruction of regional languages in the name of progress? At any rate, Vargas, like Peron, is appropriated by those who want to appropriate him, rather than by anyone who genuinely follows his legacy. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 10, 2018 17:22:44 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Oct 10, 2018 19:12:47 GMT
Probably the regime, but his icon like the rest of Brazil's authoritarian types is probably Vargas. Though wasn't Vargas actually "left wing" in some respects (not unlike Peron, really) Not unlike most fascists, really? |
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