Party Fears Two
Non-Aligned
"Good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding" (Albert Camus)
Posts: 51
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Post by Party Fears Two on Oct 10, 2018 21:35:00 GMT
Why do you think there will be civil war? Do you think that the losing socialists and liberals will be so outraged by losing that they take up arms and launch an insurrection? Seems unlikely to me. I think there will be civil war because he promised it as the only means of change. Not sure about there being a Civil war, but a possibility, if Bolsonaro wishes to follow Trump's logic of being a 'man of his word' when it comes to campaign promises to please his electorate, of Bolsonaro ushering in a mini Dirty War?
(Dirty War: infamous campaign waged from 1976 to 1983 by Argentina's military dictatorship against suspected left-wing political opponents in which an estimated 10,000 to 30,000 citizens were killed, many of whom were 'disappeared.')
I suspect that tragically, many of the cynical, more affluent, privileged Bolsonaro supporters in Brazil would embrace a 'dirty war' of vengeful violence against the discredited PT organisers, party members, elected officials, with many meeting 'accidents' of one sort of another. A Bolsonaro presidency might trumpet this 'Dirty war' to 'cleanse' the 'filth' in a possibly wider context than Duerte's take on Drug barons.
A Bolsonaro Presidency is unlikely to be pretty, but hey, look on the bright side. A 'Dirty war' there won't be on the scale of that unleashed under Indonesia's President Suharto.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 10, 2018 22:04:49 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 10, 2018 22:57:45 GMT
A point well made in there is about Chavez. If Bolsonaro does the same thing, we'll see Chavez groupies attacking Bolsonaro for using those tactics and conversely plenty of anti-Chavez types defending Bolsonaro for the same things. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 11, 2018 1:11:49 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 11, 2018 10:09:15 GMT
Arguably the very worst thing about Bolsonaro is that he is a Trumpian climate change denier.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 11, 2018 10:12:22 GMT
Arguably the very worst thing about Bolsonaro is that he is a Trumpian climate change denier. Particularly in the context of Brazil that is certainly an absolute disaster. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 11, 2018 12:25:17 GMT
Arguably the very worst thing about Bolsonaro is that he is a Trumpian climate change denier. Actually, he does believe in climate change. However, he believes the solution is the death of millions of people... |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2018 13:46:23 GMT
The evolution of PT presidential support:  Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into what might be best termed as caste: I think that's a better way of looking at the divisions in Brazilian society than 'race', which doesn't capture the complexity. The PT in government made a concerted attempt to hack away at caste privilege and caste prejudice (including and especially in a structural economic sense: there are now quotas and lots of them) in Brazilian society, and while they have been rewarded with great loyalty in e.g. the North East (where Lula especially is seen as an almost Messianic figure), elsewhere the backlash has been huge and increasingly toxic. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 14, 2018 14:44:03 GMT
Notable from that map is the collapse of the PT vote not in the "usual suspect" states (SP, Parana, SC) but states like Rio, RS and ES. Especially as SP and RS were political testing grounds for Lula and Dilma respectively.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 14, 2018 14:47:23 GMT
The evolution of PT presidential support: Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into what might be best termed as caste: I think that's a better way of looking at the divisions in Brazilian society than 'race', which doesn't capture the complexity. The PT in government made a concerted attempt to hack away at caste privilege and caste prejudice (including and especially in a structural economic sense: there are now quotas and lots of them) in Brazilian society, and while they have been rewarded with great loyalty in e.g. the North East (where Lula especially is seen as an almost Messianic figure), elsewhere the backlash has been huge and increasingly toxic. As always, love the maps which are very informative, and am intrigued by your comments, and know some of it to be right on the button - the point about Lula being a semi-Messianic figure in the North-East, absolutely ( my family links are in the interior part of Pernambuco state, just about the epicentre of that phenomenon). I am wondering if you could expand on your understanding of that word caste in the Brazilian context? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2018 15:30:57 GMT
I am wondering if you could expand on your understanding of that word caste in the Brazilian context? I tend to think that 'caste' is the best way of understanding New World societies with a very complex and rigid* social hierarchy that crosses over with economic function and which has roots in Colonial-era actions and policies (e.g. the encouragement of mass immigration from Europe in the 19th century in order to have a whiter proletariat). 'Race' doesn't really capture the complexity, even if it was clearly the point of origin: particularly telling in the case of Brazil is that the official racial categories don't match up at all with how people see themselves or how others see them, which is often the most important thing, in practice. Or, rather: there is a phenomenon without a name, and there is already a word in existence that captures the essence of that phenomenon pretty well, so let's use it. *Because even most White Brazilians have mixed ancestry to a degree there's often been a perception internationally that Brazilian society is in fact very fluid on this point. This, as you'll know, is complete nonsense... |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2018 15:39:17 GMT
Notable from that map is the collapse of the PT vote not in the "usual suspect" states (SP, Parana, SC) but states like Rio, RS and ES. Especially as SP and RS were political testing grounds for Lula and Dilma respectively. Though when Dilma was a candidate there was still a clear bonus in RS, which you'll note was one of Lula's worst states in 2006. The Rio collapse this year was staggering: only the DF (Brasilia) was weaker for Haddad. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2018 20:02:46 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 18, 2018 22:01:50 GMT
Creating a criminal network is surely de rigeur in Brazilian politics. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2018 12:30:33 GMT
More cheese than Minas Gerais, and almost certainly the only campaign add you've ever seen with a digression into vasectomies.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,715
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Post by mboy on Oct 23, 2018 16:40:15 GMT
Is he gonna ban them or make them mandatory? Or both?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 23, 2018 18:07:29 GMT
Is he gonna ban them or make them mandatory? Or both? Mandatory for the PT I think. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 24, 2018 13:35:10 GMT
Is he gonna ban them or make them mandatory? Or both? If he expects everyone to follow his example, presumably both at once. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 26, 2018 19:20:30 GMT
More cheese than Minas Gerais, and almost certainly the only campaign add you've ever seen with a digression into vasectomies. It’s very powerfully populist, and bluntly right, at times though, it underlines why he’s cut through. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 26, 2018 23:47:44 GMT
More cheese than Minas Gerais, and almost certainly the only campaign add you've ever seen with a digression into vasectomies. It’s very powerfully populist, and bluntly right, at times though, it underlines why he’s cut through. Are you talking about electoral appeal or his skill with vasectomies? |
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