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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 24, 2018 21:18:58 GMT
A very interesting summary.
There's a certain irony that Brazil will probably have more ethnic Arabs face each other in a democratic election than the majority of Arab nations.
I would say that Alckmin is probably the favourite, but the SP-RJ battle comes into play. The PSDB traditionally is strong in SP and weak in RJ, and the PT strong in RJ. Bolsonaro in RJ and Haddad in SP are at the least jokers in the pack, at most real players.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 26, 2018 13:20:18 GMT
A very interesting summary. There's a certain irony that Brazil will probably have more ethnic Arabs face each other in a democratic election than the majority of Arab nations. I would say that Alckmin is probably the favourite, but the SP-RJ battle comes into play. The PSDB traditionally is strong in SP and weak in RJ, and the PT strong in RJ. Bolsonaro in RJ and Haddad in SP are at the least jokers in the pack, at most real players. I know there are a number of dark horses here but who are the ethnic Arabs? |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 26, 2018 13:52:30 GMT
A very interesting summary. There's a certain irony that Brazil will probably have more ethnic Arabs face each other in a democratic election than the majority of Arab nations. I would say that Alckmin is probably the favourite, but the SP-RJ battle comes into play. The PSDB traditionally is strong in SP and weak in RJ, and the PT strong in RJ. Bolsonaro in RJ and Haddad in SP are at the least jokers in the pack, at most real players. I know there are a number of dark horses here but who are the ethnic Arabs? Alckmin, Haddad and José Maria Eymael. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Aug 26, 2018 13:55:22 GMT
Thanks, DW. I can see why one could consider Alckmin the favourite. He has an enormous number of advantages, not least using media and TV time saturation to get the large portion of undecided voters into his camp. That said, he doesn't have a name recognition problem. Everybody knows who he is; they just don't like him! I'll give a small example of why Alckmin is struggling. He's been actively courting the votes of the bancada ruralista, especially in the north and centre-west of the country (Ciro Gomes has also been trying to woo them), promising to legalize their cattle farms and soya plantations carved out of the Amazon and to protect them from 'bandits', i.e. angry indigenous tribesman and peasants. Yet, despite having made few firm promises in this regard, Bolsonaro is much, much more popular there than Alckmin. Perhaps they prefer the former's style, or maybe they think that Alckmin is just too much of coxinha to really support these farms built on the blood of natives and peasants. But either way, Alckmin has to work a lot harder to get less support than Bolsonaro. I am not familiar with the bancada ruralista. I understand that the land was taken from the indians, but where did the peasants you mention originally come from and what ethnicity do they typically have? |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 26, 2018 14:19:52 GMT
I know there are a number of dark horses here but who are the ethnic Arabs? Alckmin, Haddad and José Maria Eymael. Thank you. I assumed Haddad, didn't spot the other two. Can anyone now explain why? I am aware of just how varied the ethnic mix in Brazil is, but why should Arab ethnicities be quite that prominent? and what sort of Arab groupings- I might imagine Lebanese might be quite prominent here as elsewhere in Latin America. I get a somewhat distorted view of Brazilian politics partly from my son who used to live in Brazil and worked for the Brazilian government, and his wide circle of friends there ranging from police officers in SP , to family in Pernambuco some of whom are pure Indio, so pretty nearly the full range in between but not necessarily a balanced sample! |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 26, 2018 16:59:55 GMT
Thank you. I assumed Haddad, didn't spot the other two. Can anyone now explain why? I am aware of just how varied the ethnic mix in Brazil is, but why should Arab ethnicities be quite that prominent? and what sort of Arab groupings- I might imagine Lebanese might be quite prominent here as elsewhere in Latin America. I get a somewhat distorted view of Brazilian politics partly from my son who used to live in Brazil and worked for the Brazilian government, and his wide circle of friends there ranging from police officers in SP , to family in Pernambuco some of whom are pure Indio, so pretty nearly the full range in between but not necessarily a balanced sample! Mostly Syrian and Lebanese Christians who came in the late-19th and early-20th centuries. Jorge Armado wrote a novel set in those times called A Descoberta da América pelos Turcos (The Discovery of America by the Turks). I'm not sure if there's an English translation. What did you son do in Brazil, if you don't mind me asking? He is a meteorologist and helped run the Brazilian meteorological service -has now moved back here to do the same for the European service- actually this week he was back just over the border in French Guiana for the launch perhaps the most advanced scientific instrument ever sent into space. He has a Brazilian girlfriend and two Brazilian stepdaughters and is fully bilingual. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 2, 2018 13:42:59 GMT
Alckmin also embarrassed himself on national television last week by claiming that traffickers weren't running their operations from inside São Paulo prisons, which is about as credible as claiming that the sky is red). How can he possibly claim such a thing, given that the PCC pretty much operated from a Sao Paulo prison when it started?! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2018 7:00:17 GMT
How can he possibly claim such a thing, given that the PCC pretty much operated from a Sao Paulo prison when it started?! Because he has a cara de pau (literally a 'wooden face', meaning something between having a brass neck and being a cheeky see you next Tuesday). The presenter was, unsurprisingly, incredulous when he heard that, and I doubt anyone at home was taken in. It does remind me that at least one perpetrator of the Carandiru massacre was elected on the platform of "this is how we solve prison riots in Sao Paulo". |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2018 12:00:19 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2018 13:53:37 GMT
I didn't know that, but it wouldn't surprise me. I found him- Ubiratan Guimaraes. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubiratan_Guimar%C3%A3esLater murdered in mysterious circumstances. As was the prison director, Dr. Pedrosa. Neither case was ever solved. Ahem. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 5, 2018 16:56:08 GMT
I went there once. It had quite an eclectic collection of items, from a meteorite (which, I'm told, survived), through various fossils, to the thrones of the first two emperors. A real shame that it's all gone. Apparently South America's oldest set of human remains went up in smoke. The second-oldest is of course president. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 6, 2018 7:39:59 GMT
Bad news for Haddad. He's been charged with (indirectly) taking money from a construction company to pay off campaign debts. His supporters claim that it's a plot to undermine his chances. While I wouldn't rule that out 100% – corruption is so endemic that it can be and is used as a political weapon – Haddad isn't exactly setting the world on fire, so it's not clear why any such move would be necessary. Alckmin too now apparently. Bolsanaro and Meirelles must think their ship has come in. Both are surely likely to post respectable scores (of differing magnitude) simply by being clean. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 6, 2018 9:01:05 GMT
Bad news for Haddad. He's been charged with (indirectly) taking money from a construction company to pay off campaign debts. His supporters claim that it's a plot to undermine his chances. While I wouldn't rule that out 100% – corruption is so endemic that it can be and is used as a political weapon – Haddad isn't exactly setting the world on fire, so it's not clear why any such move would be necessary. Alckmin too now apparently. Bolsanaro and Meirelles must think their ship has come in. Both are surely likely to post respectable scores (of differing magnitude) simply by being clean.I think you mean "clean", i.e. not yet charged with anything |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 6, 2018 18:40:07 GMT
Bolsonaro, 22%; Marina, 12%; Ciro, 12%; Alckmin, 9%; Haddad, 6%; Alvaro Dias 3%; Amoêdo 3%; Meirelles 2%; the rest on 1% or less. 21% are 'none of the above', and 7% 'don't know/didn't answer'. Edit: Bolsonaro has the highest rejection rate at 44%, which doesn't bode well for the second round. Looks like France 2017 or Peru or Austria 2016: The right candidate clearly in front in the first round, nontheless failing in the second round. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 6, 2018 20:49:56 GMT
Bolsonaro has just survived an assassination attempt - he was stabbed at a rally in Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais state).
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 7, 2018 12:11:47 GMT
Bolsonaro has just survived an assassination attempt - he was stabbed at a rally in Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais state). That will significantly improve his chances. There is no more counter-productive act than a failed assassination or a failed coup. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 7, 2018 12:20:38 GMT
Bolsonaro has just survived an assassination attempt - he was stabbed at a rally in Juiz de Fora (Minas Gerais state). That will significantly improve his chances. There is no more counter-productive act than a failed assassination or a failed coup. Yes... all of the advantages of martyrdom, without the rather large drawback. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 11, 2018 20:17:27 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 12, 2018 12:25:52 GMT
You may note that Spurs footballer Lucas Moura has endorsed Bolsonaro, but then, he is a right winger.
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Post by matureleft on Sept 13, 2018 12:02:22 GMT
Was in Brazil from 29 August to 9 September. The main purpose of the visit wasn't to observe politics but it was interesting to note the pretty minimal evidence of an election. There were a few car posters (I was told that these were often paid for and didn't necessarily indicate how the driver might vote...). The people I spoke to (a narrow group with my lack of Portuguese) were pretty cynical and unenthusiastic. The stabbing occurred while I was there and did prompt one animated conversation - a woman had a robust word with our guide who I suspected sympathised with him. I understand that voting is compulsory with a small fine levied on those who don't. That should produce some unpredictable results bearing in mind the level of disengagement there has been.
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