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Post by yellowperil on Oct 8, 2018 6:55:24 GMT
Some discussion with my Brazilian contacts. Question: is Bolsanaro the new Trump? Answer: No , It's much worse than that. Bolsonaro is the new Hitler.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2018 7:03:46 GMT
You wouldn't have thought someone like Bolsanaro could win an election in a country where white people comprise only about 45% of the population. The pictures of the Bolsonaro supporters out on the street in Rio de Janeiro are surprisingly black. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 8, 2018 7:20:19 GMT
You wouldn't have thought someone like Bolsanaro could win an election in a country where white people comprise only about 45% of the population. The pictures of the Bolsonaro supporters out on the street in Rio de Janeiro are surprisingly black. Given recent history, Rio likely to be very much a special case? Edit: it occurs to me to ask where in Rio were the pics taken? the "open" bits, i.e. the tourist areas, now very heavily policed, or the " closed" bits, i.e the favelas, under direct military control. Either way, a pro- Bolsonaro demonstration should not be taken entirely at face value and anything else would probably be banned. |
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mondialito
Labour
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Post by mondialito on Oct 8, 2018 8:17:47 GMT
You wouldn't have thought someone like Bolsanaro could win an election in a country where white people comprise only about 45% of the population. The pictures of the Bolsonaro supporters out on the street in Rio de Janeiro are surprisingly black. I haven't seen the pictures you have, but as others have suggested upthread, mixed-race people are largely seen as 'white' in Brazil while they seen as 'black' in the US and Europe. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2018 8:36:18 GMT
The pictures of the Bolsonaro supporters out on the street in Rio de Janeiro are surprisingly black. Given recent history, Rio likely to be very much a special case? Edit: it occurs to me to ask where in Rio were the pics taken? the "open" bits, i.e. the tourist areas, now very heavily policed, or the " closed" bits, i.e the favelas, under direct military control. Either way, a pro- Bolsonaro demonstration should not be taken entirely at face value and anything else would probably be banned. I couldn't tell you I'm afraid. Nonetheless, they didn't look my impression of a white, middle-class Bolsonaro supporter (which was purely based on what I'd seen previously in the papers). |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2018 8:39:13 GMT
Regardless of what he is actually like and is offering, it is quite incredible that a candidate from a minor party, the most polarising figure to run in many years (that's saying something), has managed to achieve this score. It is deeply, deeply impressive.
I'll chalk this one up as another one on my "shows what I know" list. I thought he'd get 25% maximum.
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Oct 8, 2018 8:46:09 GMT
The spectre of Venezuela has made it very east to kick the left in Brazil. The recent flood of refugees into Brazil has illustrated that in black & white.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2018 9:17:38 GMT
Regardless of what he is actually like and is offering, it is quite incredible that a candidate from a minor party, the most polarising figure to run in many years (that's saying something), has managed to achieve this score. It is deeply, deeply impressive. I'll chalk this one up as another one on my "shows what I know" list. I thought he'd get 25% maximum. Apparently the Brazilian media is even more lopsidedly right wing than our own, and strongly supported him. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Oct 8, 2018 10:03:44 GMT
Regardless of what he is actually like and is offering, it is quite incredible that a candidate from a minor party, the most polarising figure to run in many years (that's saying something), has managed to achieve this score. It is deeply, deeply impressive. I'll chalk this one up as another one on my "shows what I know" list. I thought he'd get 25% maximum. Apparently the Brazilian media is even more lopsidedly right wing than our own, and strongly supported him. So it's a load of centrist publications then? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 8, 2018 16:41:35 GMT
Some discussion with my Brazilian contacts. Question: is Bolsanaro the new Trump? Answer: No , It's much worse than that. Bolsonaro is the new Hitler. I don’t know who your “Brazilian contacts” are, I’m assuming family?, but that’s daft. I’m not aware of Bolsonaro, as repulsive as he undoubtedly is, advocating the invasion, occupation, annexation and the genocidal annihilation of whole people’s and then their colonisation by Brazilians. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 8, 2018 22:17:25 GMT
Haddad has gone to see Lula in gaol. That feels like a massive blunder.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 8, 2018 22:57:07 GMT
Some discussion with my Brazilian contacts. Question: is Bolsanaro the new Trump? Answer: No , It's much worse than that. Bolsonaro is the new Hitler. I don’t know who your “Brazilian contacts” are, I’m assuming family?, but that’s daft. I’m not aware of Bolsonaro, as repulsive as he undoubtedly is, advocating the invasion, occupation, annexation and the genocidal annihilation of whole people’s and then their colonisation by Brazilians. Perhaps the explanation for why 46% voted for him is the fact that violent crime is out of control and people are desperate for something to be done about it. There were apparently 64,000 murders in Brazil last year for example. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 9, 2018 18:27:34 GMT
Yes it's probably more analogous to the Philippines and Duterte than to USA and Trump. And it's not analogous at all to 1933 Germany.
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 9, 2018 19:04:46 GMT
I don’t know who your “Brazilian contacts” are, I’m assuming family?, but that’s daft. I’m not aware of Bolsonaro, as repulsive as he undoubtedly is, advocating the invasion, occupation, annexation and the genocidal annihilation of whole people’s and then their colonisation by Brazilians. Perhaps the explanation for why 46% voted for him is the fact that violent crime is out of control and people are desperate for something to be done about it. There were apparently 64,000 murders in Brazil last year for example. Reasons, not excuses - and really crap ones to boot. This man has openly said the killing of innocents, word for word, is alright. He's said the only way they can change things is 'by having a civil war', and killing 30,000 people including the former president. Anybody against violent crime should surely not back a candidate like that. He seems markedly worse than Duterte, to me at least. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 9, 2018 19:41:06 GMT
Some discussion with my Brazilian contacts. Question: is Bolsanaro the new Trump? Answer: No , It's much worse than that. Bolsonaro is the new Hitler. I don’t know who your “Brazilian contacts” are, I’m assuming family?, but that’s daft. I’m not aware of Bolsonaro, as repulsive as he undoubtedly is, advocating the invasion, occupation, annexation and the genocidal annihilation of whole people’s and then their colonisation by Brazilians.Not quite so far off as you might suppose - he has argued that reserves for indigenous peoples should be opened up to mining companies. That is not far off colonisation; the indigenous peoples themselves seem to believe that they are under realistic threat of genocide, and the history of Brazil and Latin America generally does nothing to suggest those fears are baseless. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2018 19:51:35 GMT
I don’t know who your “Brazilian contacts” are, I’m assuming family?, but that’s daft. I’m not aware of Bolsonaro, as repulsive as he undoubtedly is, advocating the invasion, occupation, annexation and the genocidal annihilation of whole people’s and then their colonisation by Brazilians.Not quite so far off as you might suppose - he has argued that reserves for indigenous peoples should be opened up to mining companies. That is not far off colonisation; the indigenous peoples themselves seem to believe that they are under realistic threat of genocide, and the history of Brazil and Latin America generally does nothing to suggest those fears are baseless. Bolsonaro's powerbase, other than Rio, appears to be in the states that attracted Italian and Spanish immigrants- Sao Paulo, parts of Parana, parts of Minas Gerais. This massive population, unlike the Portuguese and Germans, came to Brazil often as indentured farmers and servants. There is not much in the way of a sense of colonial guilt there. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2018 20:09:54 GMT
pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2018Some notable results with commentary. Santa Catarina- highest percentage vote for Bolsonaro at 65.82%. This is Brazil's most-developed state and is mainly of German descent. Rio Grande do Sul- another German/Italian state, with a 52.63% vote for Bolsonaro. RS voted for Dilma in the first round in 200 and 2014, and she was politically active there for some time. Sao Paulo- a whopping 12 million voters went for Bolsonaro. Note that he grew up in the state, however. Of the 10 states with the largest electorate, 6 went for Bolsonaro, 3 for Haddad, and 1 for Ciro. Haddad took a total of 21, 472, 850 votes across these ten states. Bolsonaro beat this total by a million in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro alone. Nearly 19.22% of the Sao Paulo vote went to candidates other than the top three. I don't have the breakdown yet but I presume that Alckmin, Amoedo, the Patriota lot and Meirelles had decent scores here- and you'd expect their vote to move towards Bolsonaro now. 19.22% is more than voted for Haddad! He is clearly not that popular in his own home state. It's not impossible but Haddad is going to need to hoover up the whole of Ciro's vote, hope that non-voters will come out for him, and hope for stay-at-homes amongst some of those conservative and liberal parties.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2018 20:12:25 GMT
Bolsonaro's powerbase, other than Rio, appears to be in the states that attracted Italian and Spanish immigrants- Sao Paulo, parts of Parana, parts of Minas Gerais. This massive population, unlike the Portuguese and Germans, came to Brazil often as indentured farmers and servants. There is not much in the way of a sense of colonial guilt there. "Bolsonaro's powerbase, other than Rio, appears to be in the states that attracted Italian and Spanish immigrants" Hmmm.. no doubt with some fascist/falangist background. Clearly most Brazilians forget how awful it was under the Military dictatorship than only ended in 1985. They might as well be better off reestablishing the monarchy if they are going to vote for Bolsonaro..
Lots of doubt, as the majority of Italians arrived in 1880-1890, and most Spaniards between 1905 and 1919. |
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 9, 2018 20:14:37 GMT
pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2018Some notable results with commentary. Santa Catarina- highest percentage vote for Bolsonaro at 65.82%. This is Brazil's most-developed state and is mainly of German descent. Rio Grande do Sul- another German/Italian state, with a 52.63% vote for Bolsonaro. RS voted for Dilma in the first round in 200 and 2014, and she was politically active there for some time. Sao Paulo- a whopping 12 million voters went for Bolsonaro. Note that he grew up in the state, however. Of the 10 states with the largest electorate, 6 went for Bolsonaro, 3 for Haddad, and 1 for Ciro. Haddad took a total of 21, 472, 850 votes across these ten states. Bolsonaro beat this total by a million in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro alone. Nearly 19.22% of the Sao Paulo vote went to candidates other than the top three. I don't have the breakdown yet but I presume that Alckmin, Amoedo, the Patriota lot and Meirelles had decent scores here- and you'd expect their vote to move towards Bolsonaro now. 19.22% is more than voted for Haddad! He is clearly not that popular in his own home state. It's not impossible but Haddad is going to need to hoover up the whole of Ciro's vote, hope that non-voters will come out for him, and hope for stay-at-homes amongst some of those conservative and liberal parties. Why wouldn't he hoover up liberal voters? Wouldn't be a fascist platform be anathema to them, regardless of their preferences re: leftwing/rightwing economics? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 9, 2018 20:26:47 GMT
pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2018Some notable results with commentary. Santa Catarina- highest percentage vote for Bolsonaro at 65.82%. This is Brazil's most-developed state and is mainly of German descent. Rio Grande do Sul- another German/Italian state, with a 52.63% vote for Bolsonaro. RS voted for Dilma in the first round in 200 and 2014, and she was politically active there for some time. Sao Paulo- a whopping 12 million voters went for Bolsonaro. Note that he grew up in the state, however. Of the 10 states with the largest electorate, 6 went for Bolsonaro, 3 for Haddad, and 1 for Ciro. Haddad took a total of 21, 472, 850 votes across these ten states. Bolsonaro beat this total by a million in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro alone. Nearly 19.22% of the Sao Paulo vote went to candidates other than the top three. I don't have the breakdown yet but I presume that Alckmin, Amoedo, the Patriota lot and Meirelles had decent scores here- and you'd expect their vote to move towards Bolsonaro now. 19.22% is more than voted for Haddad! He is clearly not that popular in his own home state. It's not impossible but Haddad is going to need to hoover up the whole of Ciro's vote, hope that non-voters will come out for him, and hope for stay-at-homes amongst some of those conservative and liberal parties. Why wouldn't he hoover up liberal voters? Wouldn't be a fascist platform be anathema to them, regardless of their preferences re: leftwing/rightwing economics? It's Brazil. Anything could happen. I can't see Novo voters, for example, being keen to endorse the PT en masse. |
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