Local Council By-elections 26th July

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew's Previews are online now.

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 25, 2018 18:14:18 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jul 25, 2018 18:08:54 GMT andrewp said:

I know the Conservatives have issues with their candidate in Merthyr, but there is a possibility of them receiving an embarrassingly low number of votes

I assume that the vast majority on this forum would rather their party put a candidate in a ward where they are likely to get a derisory vote, than not to stand? Does anyone think its not worth it in order to avoid the embarrassment?

Always put a candidate up, it gives people an opportunity to vote for you if they wish, and they think you are at least trying for their vote, even on paper.

I agree, but there are some on LD Voice who disagree, and think that standing a paper-only candidate with no support just "demonstrates our weakness".  Not half so much as not standing a candidate at all, IMHO.

[olympian95]

Some interesting background on the LD candidate in New Forest here:

www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11828709.The_university_drop-out_who_started_a_business_in_his_bedroom_and_has_now_sold_it_for___20m/

[Deleted]

Jul 25, 2018 18:08:54 GMT andrewp said:

I know the Conservatives have issues with their candidate in Merthyr, but there is a possibility of them receiving an embarrassingly low number of votes

I assume that the vast majority on this forum would rather their party put a candidate in a ward where they are likely to get a derisory vote, than not to stand? Does anyone think its not worth it in order to avoid the embarrassment?

For small authorities (which will have low electorate/councillor ratios) and/or one with very rural wards, it can be hard to find willing candidates in some places.

Without naming names, I've known local parties who have in recent years managed to find a full slate, but it's horrifically gender-imbalance - I'm not talking something like 2:1, which is far from perfect but not unusual, but rather ~90% men. In those cases, unless more candidates can be found, I think it's preferable to not stand in a few places so that we don't look like some sort of MRA outfit.

[greenchristian]

Jul 25, 2018 18:08:54 GMT andrewp said:

I know the Conservatives have issues with their candidate in Merthyr, but there is a possibility of them receiving an embarrassingly low number of votes

I assume that the vast majority on this forum would rather their party put a candidate in a ward where they are likely to get a derisory vote, than not to stand? Does anyone think its not worth it in order to avoid the embarrassment?

As far as I'm concerned, there are only a handful of good reasons not to stand everywhere. The ones I can think of are:

1) You simply can't find enough candidates (most commonly in an all-out council election) - or the effort required to convince enough people to stand would seriously damage your target campaign(s)
2) It's an election involving deposits, you are very likely to lose your deposit, and you simply can't afford the financial hit. Or sometimes can't raise the money in the first place
3) You have some form of electoral agreement with at least one other party (whether formal or informal) which you think will increase your chances of seats and/or reduce the majority of the dominant local party, thus increasing the influence of all the parties involved in said agreement

In my opinion, an embarrassingly low vote total sends a better signal than not being on the ballot at all.

[Deleted]

Jul 26, 2018 9:12:05 GMT greenchristian said:

Jul 25, 2018 18:08:54 GMT andrewp said:

I know the Conservatives have issues with their candidate in Merthyr, but there is a possibility of them receiving an embarrassingly low number of votes

I assume that the vast majority on this forum would rather their party put a candidate in a ward where they are likely to get a derisory vote, than not to stand? Does anyone think its not worth it in order to avoid the embarrassment?

As far as I'm concerned, there are only a handful of good reasons not to stand everywhere. The ones I can think of are:

1) You simply can't find enough candidates (most commonly in an all-out council election) - or the effort required to convince enough people to stand would seriously damage your target campaign(s)
2) It's an election involving deposits, you are very likely to lose your deposit, and you simply can't afford the financial hit. Or sometimes can't raise the money in the first place
3) You have some form of electoral agreement with at least one other party (whether formal or informal) which you think will increase your chances of seats and/or reduce the majority of the dominant local party, thus increasing the influence of all the parties involved in said agreement

In my opinion, an embarrassingly low vote total sends a better signal than not being on the ballot at all.

I've sometimes encountered the view in the Scottish Greens, especially outside Edinburgh and Glasgow, that standing paper candidates is 'deceptive', especially if the candidate doesn't live in the ward. It tends to come from those who, in my estimation, have never really come to terms with the idea of being a political party.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jul 26, 2018 7:40:47 GMT @nw12398 said:

Jul 25, 2018 18:08:54 GMT andrewp said:

I know the Conservatives have issues with their candidate in Merthyr, but there is a possibility of them receiving an embarrassingly low number of votes

I assume that the vast majority on this forum would rather their party put a candidate in a ward where they are likely to get a derisory vote, than not to stand? Does anyone think its not worth it in order to avoid the embarrassment?

For small authorities (which will have low electorate/councillor ratios) and/or one with very rural wards, it can be hard to find willing candidates in some places.

Without naming names, I've known local parties who have in recent years managed to find a full slate, but it's horrifically gender-imbalance - I'm not talking something like 2:1, which is far from perfect but not unusual, but rather ~90% men. In those cases, unless more candidates can be found, I think it's preferable to not stand in a few places so that we don't look like some sort of MRA outfit.

That makes no sense. Most of the electorate are not going to be interested in who the candidates are in wards other than their own.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

North Lincolnshire, Freshney - turnout 23.2%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Plymouth, Stoke - turnout 27.2%

[andrewp]

West Lancashire, Knowsley


Lab 641
Our West Lancashire 547
Con 364

Labour Hold. Turnout 34.5%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

WEST LANCASHIRE Knowsley

DOWLING, Gareth (Labour) 641
MITCHELL, Kate (Our West Lancashire) 547
VERNON, Jeffrey (Conservative) 364

Turnout 34.5%

[Robert Waller]

Knowsley (West Lancashire) result:

LAB: 41.3% (-9.6)
OWL: 35.2% (+19.9)
CON: 23.5% (-10.3)

Labour HOLD.

[finsobruce]

Jul 26, 2018 22:20:54 GMT Robert Waller said:

Knowsley (West Lancashire) result:

LAB: 41.3% (-9.6)
OWL: 35.2% (+19.9)
CON: 23.5% (-10.3)

Labour HOLD.

Owls squeeze all.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Everybody should have his own OWL.

[finsobruce]

Jul 26, 2018 22:22:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Everybody should have his own OWL.

but the owls are not what they seem...

[mrpastelito]

Jul 26, 2018 22:25:27 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 26, 2018 22:22:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Everybody should have his own OWL.

but the owls are not what they seem...

I don't give a hoot.

[Robert Waller]

Fawley, Blackfield & Langley (New Forest) result:

CON: 58.4% (+15.8)
LDEM: 41.6% (+27.4)

No UKIP (-30.7) and Lab (-12.4) as prev.

Conservative HOLD.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 26, 2018 22:25:27 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 26, 2018 22:22:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Everybody should have his own OWL.

but the owls are not what they seem...

Ah, they do only spread their wings with the coming of the dusk.

[Deleted]

Tories gain Birchington South (Thanet). No numbers yet.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

TORRIDGE Hartland and Bradworthy

Richard Frederick Boughton (The Conservative Party Candidate) 408
Martin William Hill (Liberal Democrat) 204
John Edward Sanders (Green Party Candidate) 85

Turnout 28.03%