andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 27, 2018 18:16:34 GMT
I don’t disagree with any of that. I may be wrong but is Omskirk similar to Southport, Chester and the Wirral where Labour strength in Merseyside is expanding to neighbouring towns. It’s almost impossible to see the Conservatives ever winning West Lancashire parliamentary seat again. One Labour activist on twitter called Owls ‘ ex Tories’- I can’t remember exactly how they were formed but having 2 right of centre parties ( if OWL are) would have helped Labour
Agree that Birchington is an area that the Tories ought to win. I think Hartland is a more impressive gain, although probably at least partly down to candidate choice and the Lib Dem’s candidates choice
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 27, 2018 18:54:55 GMT
Both Labour and the Conservatives have reasons to be pleased with this weeks resuls. A few more votes in Merthyr would have made it even better for us. Regarding the recent UKIP poll revival, their only showing this week (in Freshney) saw their vote drop signifcantly on this May - so the jury is still very much out. And to add to that mix, according to BBC's ward level results, Freshney voted 73% Leave.
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 27, 2018 19:53:17 GMT
I don’t disagree with any of that. I may be wrong but is Omskirk similar to Southport, Chester and the Wirral where Labour strength in Merseyside is expanding to neighbouring towns. It’s almost impossible to see the Conservatives ever winning West Lancashire parliamentary seat again. One Labour activist on twitter called Owls ‘ ex Tories’- I can’t remember exactly how they were formed but having 2 right of centre parties ( if OWL are) would have helped Labour Agree that Birchington is an area that the Tories ought to win. I think Hartland is a more impressive gain, although probably at least partly down to candidate choice and the Lib Dem’s candidates choice I have always thought that Labour's gradual improvement in Ormskirk (it's broadly changed from being marginally Tory to marginally Labour over about a generation, I'd say) was likely to be related to the town's proximity to Liverpool. I could of course be wrong. In Ormskirk it could well be the expansion of edge Hill university and the number of students living in Ormskirk that could have partially moved things towards labour. There's also a fairly large public sector workforce from what I gather. OWL were formed by ex-tories and certainly take more from them than from labour. However labour would win 2 of the 3 Ormskirk wards now regardless.
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Post by robbienicoll on Jul 27, 2018 20:18:46 GMT
And to add to that mix, according to BBC's ward level results, Freshney voted 73% Leave. Grimsby is famously Eurosceptic & has been pretty much since the 70s. Raises questions though around why such a pro-Leave area wouldn't reflect what is reported as a reasonably significant nationwide increase in the UKIP vote.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 27, 2018 20:44:01 GMT
Grimsby is famously Eurosceptic & has been pretty much since the 70s. Raises questions though around why such a pro-Leave area wouldn't reflect what is reported as a reasonably significant nationwide increase in the UKIP vote. I think there’s probably still something of a disconnect between people saying in an opinion poll that they intend to vote UKIP and UKIP having the ground organisation to exploit that.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 27, 2018 20:51:22 GMT
Raises questions though around why such a pro-Leave area wouldn't reflect what is reported as a reasonably significant nationwide increase in the UKIP vote. I think there’s probably still something of a disconnect between people saying in an opinion poll that they intend to vote UKIP and UKIP having the ground organisation to exploit that. Also, perhaps, between pissed-off people telling a pollster they would vote UKIP and the same people being arsed to go out and vote in a local council by-election.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 27, 2018 22:58:37 GMT
It could also be that the Tory splippage to UKIP isn't concentrated amongst the sort of Tory voter you find in Grimsby, even if previous UKIP support was.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 28, 2018 8:13:47 GMT
It could also be that the Tory splippage to UKIP isn't concentrated amongst the sort of Tory voter you find in Grimsby, even if previous UKIP support was. Worth noting that UKIP did underwhelmingly in the previous week's elections. It may take time for any surge in members or popularity to work through to any results on the ground. The quotes from Batten on the thread of his name regarding party finances are interesting - he may have an opportunity now to put his party on a sound footing with membership subs coming in, more foot soldiers, and a receptive public. But the capacity to shoot themselves in the foot is never far away.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 28, 2018 16:00:14 GMT
They did do poorly, but nowhere they stood had high numbers of the retired colonel demographic.
Also, even if this slippage is real (and I'm not convinced it'd stand up through an election campaign), UKIP are still polling a lot worse than they did in most seats last time they were contested.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 29, 2018 0:17:52 GMT
Well, yes, but if a) the post-Chequers bounce means anything in the real world and b) it has a particular demographic base, there's no particular reason to believe it'll be the same base that voted UKIP 2013-2016.
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