Local Council By-elections 26th July

[Tony Otim]

Interesting mix this week of a Labour-indy marginal in Wales and seats which the Tories used to hold but are no longer competitive, seats the Lib Dems used to hold but are no longer competitive or aren't contesting and seats that UKIP used to hold but are no longer competitive or aren't contesting, with NE Lincs ticking three of those boxes.

MERTHYR TYDFIL UA, Gurnos (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
DAVIES, Jeremy Islwyn Trevor (Independent)
ELLIS, Laurel Elizabeth (Conservative)
HOOPER, Allyn Lee (Labour)
SINGH, Dillan (Independent)

2017: Ind 569, 486, 402, 368; Lab 541, 479, 423, 421
May 15 by: Lab 706; Ind 698, 340
2012: Lab 591, 586, 496, 492; Ind 500, 419, 417, 408
2008: Ind 610, 603, 478; Lab 489, 481, 443, 383
2004: Lab 567, 530, 491, 457; PBP 432, 430, 418, 372; Ind 253

Neither independent has stood before in this ward. The Conservatives have had a few issues wwith their candidate and have suspended her.



NEW FOREST DC, Fawley, Blackfield & Langley (Con died)
Candidates:
FLETCHER, Craig (Liberal Democrats)
LANGDALE, Merv (Conservative)

2015: Con 1551, 1402; UKIP 1118; LD 519, 334; Lab 452
2011: Con 1418, 1215; LD 671, 591
2007: Con 1061, 974; LD 777, 698
2003: LD 1011, 921; Con 680, 584



NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE UA; Freshney (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
EMMERSON, Loyd Layton (Green)
FISHER, Barry Charles (UKIP)
HOLLAND, Steve (Conservative)
KIFF, Mick (Independent)
MILL, Sheldon James (Labour)

2018: Lab 793; UKIP 180; Grn 83; TUSC 17
2016: Lab 876; UKIP 434; Con 386; Grn 68; TUSC 29
2015: Lab 1791; UKIP 1182; Con 1133; Grn 136; TUSC 37
2014: UKIP 763; Lab 631; Con 394; LD 85; Grn 73; TUSC 32
2012: Lab 1043; Con 332; UKIP 332; LD 112; Ind 87
2011: Lab 1011; LD 709; Con 469; UKIP 268;
2010: Lab 1542; LD 1277; Con 1119; UKIP 369
2008: LD 900; Lab 767; Con 766
2007: LD 752; Con 675; Lab 673; INd 61
2006: Lab 969, 809; Con 936, 842
2004: Lab 1005; Ind 857; Con 783
2003: Con 993, 780, 755; Lab 737, 640, 619; Ind 665

UKIP candidate stood this May.



PLYMOUTH UA; Stoke (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
CLARKE, Connor (Liberal Democrats)
LAING, Jemima Mary (Labour)
POPESCU, Iuliu (Active for Plymouth)
WATKINS, Kathy (Conservative)

2018: Lab 1915; Con 1219; Grn 186; LD 184; UKIP 143
2016: Lab 1645; Con 964; UKIP 506; LD 209
2015: Lab 2299; Con 2150; UKIP 930; Grn 637; LD 298; TUSC 63
2014: Lab 1333; Con 814; UKIP 802; Grn 333; Ind 279; TUSC 55
2012: Lab 1602; Con 1205; UKIP 443; LD 197
2011: Lab 1875; Con 1492; UKIP 520
2010: Con 2030; Lab 1880; LD 1335; UKIP 542; Grn 209
2008: Con 1500; Lab 1014; LD 382; Grn 347
2007: Con 1459; Lab 1182; LD 595; UKIp 223; Grn 217
2006: Con 1358; Lab 1232; LD 552; Grn 338
2004: Lab 1259; Con 915; UKIP 653; LD 504; Grn 230
2003: Lab 1128, 1045, 1007; Con 935, 926, 877; LD 506, 469, 422; Grn 287; Plymouth Party 178, 170



THANET DC; Birchington South (UKIP sitting as Independent died)
Candidates:
LLOYD-BOWYER, Hannah Maryann (Liberal Deomcrats)
WHITEHEAD, Helen Elizabeth (Labour)
WRIGHT, Linda Ann (Conservative)

2015: UKIP 1348, 1277, 1273; Con 1091, 1056, 923; Ind 767, 581, 302; Lab 520, 518; LD 221, 187
2011: Con 1171, 1079, 900; Ind 1023; Lab 499, 433
2007: Con 1106, 968, 890; Ind 819; Lab 317, 310, 286
2003: Con 1133, 996, 924; Lab 452, 409; Ind 448, 370

The Conservative who topped the poll in 2003, stood as an indy in 2007, losing his seat, won it back as an indy in 2011, before losing it to UKIP in 2015 (he finished 8th that time round).



TORRIDGE DC; Hartland & Bradworthy (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BROUGHTON, Richard Frederick (Conservative)
HILL, Martin William (Liberal Democrat)
SANDERS, John Edward (Green)

Jun 17 by: LD 973; Grn 720 (LD gain from UKIP)
2015: Ind 1114; UKIP 598; Grn 567
2011: LD 494, 473; Con 401, 245; Ind 271; UKIP 188; Grn 177
Mar 09 by: LD 786; Con 317; UKIP 103; Ind 33 (LD gain from Ind)
2007: LD 657; Ind 598, 363; UKIP 245; Grn 195
2003: 2 x Ind unopp.

The Green candidate was the unsuccessful candidate in last year’s by-election. Both the Conservative and Green live in Bradworthy. The Lib Dem lives outside the ward but not by much.



WEST LANCASHIRE BC; Knowsley (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
DOWLING, Gareth (Labour)
MITCHELL, Kate (Our West Lancashire)
VERNON, Jeffrey (Conservative)

2018: Lab 1014; Con 673; OWL 306
2016: Lab 1063; Con 744; OWL 173; Grn 85
2015: Lab 1512; Con 1125; UKIP 316; Grn 188; OWL 186
2014: Lab 913; Con 885; Grn 224
2012: Lab 981; Con 711; Grn 161
2011: Con 964; Lab 820; Grn 210
2010: Con 1535; Lab 1331; Grn 294
2008: Con 1003; Lab 357: Grn 211
2007: Con 885; Lab 506; Grn 196
2006: Con 1062; Lab 409; Grn 225
2004: Con 1360; Lab 652; Grn 204
2003: Con 730; Lab 415; Grn 145
2002: Con 1059, 1010, 913; Lab 635, 541

The Con and OWL candidates are the same as this May.

[AdminSTB]

You appear to have missed out the Tory winner in Freshney in 2018 who got 878 votes.

[Adam in Stroud]

That Torridge by-election looks weird and I look forward to Andrew's preview.

A ward held by UKIP in 2015 goes LD in a straight fight with just the Greens, then the LD winner resigns within a year. No Conservative vote share to compare since 2011 and none before 2009.

Most unusual.

[Deleted]

"Fawley, Blackfield & Langley" are excellent lawyers.

[finsobruce]

Jul 22, 2018 9:37:06 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Fawley, Blackfield & Langley" are excellent lawyers.

I will have to switch my business from Sue, Grabbit and Run.......

[middyman]

Jul 22, 2018 10:03:50 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 22, 2018 9:37:06 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Fawley, Blackfield & Langley" are excellent lawyers.

I will have to switch my business from Sue, Grabbit and Run.......

I came across a firm of Solicitors in the West Country who went by the splendid name of Nash, Hewitt, Cocks and Clapp.  They changed their name to Nash & Co.

[finsobruce]

Jul 22, 2018 10:06:19 GMT middyman said:

Jul 22, 2018 10:03:50 GMT finsobruce said:

I will have to switch my business from Sue, Grabbit and Run.......

I came across a firm of Solicitors in the West Country who went by the splendid name of Nash, Hewitt, Cocks and Clapp.  They changed their name to Nash & Co.

They should have considered merging with the California firm of Low, Ball and Lynch

lowball.com/

[froome]

Jul 22, 2018 8:07:58 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

That Torridge by-election looks weird and I look forward to Andrew's preview.

A ward held by UKIP in 2015 goes LD in a straight fight with just the Greens, then the LD winner resigns within a year. No Conservative vote share to compare since 2011 and none before 2009.

Most unusual.

It's Hartland.

Them be strange folk round there.

[MeirionGwril]

Bechod d'yn ni ddim yn sefyll ymgeisydd ym Merthyr ....

[yellowperil]

Jul 22, 2018 9:37:06 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

"Fawley, Blackfield & Langley" are excellent lawyers.

Fawley can be a bit volatile though

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 23, 2018 8:00:17 GMT MeirionGwril said:

Bechod d'yn ni ddim yn sefyll ymgeisydd ym Merthyr ....

That's easy for you to say.

(Seriously, happy for you to speak/write Welsh in the right context, but this is an English-medium site, isn't it?)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nid wyf yn cytuno a Chris.

[Chris from Brum]

Jul 23, 2018 8:48:10 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Nid wyf yn cytuno a Chris.

Suit yourself.

[AdminSTB]

Jul 23, 2018 8:48:10 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Nid wyf yn cytuno a Chris.

Nid ydw i ddim.

[Deleted]

Jul 23, 2018 8:00:17 GMT MeirionGwril said:

Bechod d'yn ni ddim yn sefyll ymgeisydd ym Merthyr ....

Nothing wrong with typing in Welsh though maybe you should provide translation in italics or something.

[Deleted]

Jul 23, 2018 10:06:05 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Jul 23, 2018 8:00:17 GMT MeirionGwril said:

Bechod d'yn ni ddim yn sefyll ymgeisydd ym Merthyr ....

Nothing wrong with typing in Welsh though maybe you should provide translation in italics or something.

If people wish to post in languages other than English, that's their prerogative. I assume the fact that their insights will be available to only a tiny percentage of the UK population (0.4% in this case) is something they have taken into account.

[lackeroftalent]

"Shame we are not standing a candidate in Merthyr" ?

Think that's it.

[Deleted]

Just look at how much that West Lancashire ward has trended towards Labour! Easy hold. The by-election in West Lancs. last week was a very shaky hold for the Tories.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 23, 2018 10:20:34 GMT @goodoldcause said:

Jul 23, 2018 10:06:05 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Nothing wrong with typing in Welsh though maybe you should provide translation in italics or something.

If people wish to post in languages other than English, that's their prerogative. I assume the fact that their insights will be available to only a tiny percentage of the UK population (0.4% in this case) is something they have taken into account.

If those insights were libelous then presumably the fact that they were written in a language other than English would not be a defence. This means that moderators will have to use a translation tool on any and every post made in another language to ensure that they are not libelous or do not otherwise infringe the rules of the site. If everyone decided to start making posts in random and obscure languages the site would become literally unmanageable

[yellowperil]

Jul 23, 2018 11:24:09 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 23, 2018 10:20:34 GMT @goodoldcause said:

If people wish to post in languages other than English, that's their prerogative. I assume the fact that their insights will be available to only a tiny percentage of the UK population (0.4% in this case) is something they have taken into account.

If those insights were libelous then presumably the fact that they were written in a language other than English would not be a defence. This means that moderators will have to use a translation tool on any and every post made in another language to ensure that they are not libelous or do not otherwise infringe the rules of the site. If everyone decided to start making posts in random and obscure languages the site would become literally unmanageable

While not disagreeing with your  basic point, it might not be quite acceptable to call Welsh a "random and obscure" language. It is a mainstream language of these islands,and it was used briefly and the meaning was pretty clear even without having Welsh as a language, and it would have been pretty difficult to have libelled anyone in those few words.

It has not often happened that somebody uses a language other than English in their actual posts,it is fairly common to link to a foreign language source where the same might apply.