Zimbabwe general election, 2018

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2018 10:12:09 GMT @vintris said:

We got the first poll by local Mpoi (Mass Public Opinion Institute) and Afrobarometer with a 2,399 sample and a MoE of +/- 2  at a 95% confidence level. It's conducted between 28 April and 13 May and seems to confirm that ZANU-PF retain support in rural Zimbabwe where people have faith in Mnangagwa being able to lead an economic recovery. It also confirms that all other candidates than the Top 2 are irrelevant.  

Emmerson Mnangagwa 42
Nelson Chamisa 31 
Others 2
Undecided 25

Having looked at the actual numbers rather than media rendition of them it's:

Emmerson Mnangagwa 42
Nelson Chamisa 31 
Others 1
Don't know 7
Refused to answer 19

So not necessarily a quarter undecided, but more likely some people fearful of saying they will vote against the president. Of course one can't just add all "refuse" answers to Chamisa but the bulk of them are likely anti-Mnangagwa voters, a lot of them could be G40 supporters in rural areas as they would have the most to lose if it became public they planned to vote for Chamisa.

The joker in this is whether rural voters' faith in "the party" and the system translates into support for the "usurper" Mnangagwa. 57% say Mnangagwa will govern differently from Mugabe, which is a good number for him and he had reasonable "trust" numbers so the "expert" line about having faith in Mnangagwa being able to lead a turnaround seem plausible, but the high "refused to answer" is interesting as there is no stigma against saying you don't know.

[Deleted]

On the topic of why G40 supporters, who are the ostensible Mugabe loyalists, could end up voting for Chamisa it's worth remembering that G40 (Generation 40) started as an alliance of youngish reformers (in their 40s) against the Old Guard from the Liberation War generation that wanted the hegemony of the party and the "system" to remain unchanged. They then allied with Grace Mugabe to use her to destroy Mnangagwa as she had previously destroyed Joice Mujuru, but likely gambled on being able to easily push her aide after Mugabe had died or become senile given that she was incompetent and despised by almost everyone. So while they are posing as the "Mugabe loyalists" they are also the reform wing of ZANU-PF, and even if NPF includes some of the few actual diehard Mugabe loyalists that want the First Family to keep ruling it's mostly a G40 vehicle. So besides their hatred (and fear) of Mnangagwa G40 are more comfortable with a period of MDC rule and a (temporary) loss of the ZANU-PF ownership of the state apparatus than Mnangagwa and the hardliners among the securocrats (the former Team Lacoste faction) whose worldview is rooted in the Liberation War mythology and the unity between party, military and state. 

[Deleted]

With the party and candidate registration deadline coming up on Thursday things are moving fast in Zimbabwean politics at the moment.

The National Patriotic Front (NPF) split on Friday, after the Executive Committee recalled it's interim leader (and presidential candidate) Rt. General Ambrose Mutinhiri and appointed Eunice Sandi-Moyo (71) as new leader. But he has rejected the recall and insists he is still in charge of the NPF, and that his ouster is the result of bribes to members of the Executive Committee financed by Grace Mugabe in order to pave way for her as NPF leader. Jim Kunaka, who has the grand title of National Political Commissar in the branch of NPF loyal to Mutinhiri, claims Grace Mugabe plans to join the MDC Alliance after striking a deal with Chamisa to become his VP. The MDC Alliance of course vehementy denies this as complete rubbish.

Professor Stephen Chan from the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London says it’s a deliberate social media based "fake news" strategy to "create the sense that only Mnangagwa stands for a clean break from the Mugabe days, and that the MDC is becoming Mugabe Lite". While this may sound crazy given Mnangagwa's long history as Mugabe’s right hand man he thinks it may be "more effective than old-fashioned thuggery".

Observers generally say it was a big mistake by MDC-T to allow the NPF to participate in their electoral reform demonstrations in Harare as it made it possible for the Mnangagwa camp to spread rumours on social media and via their agents within NPF (such as Kunaka) about an MDC-T/NPF alliance.

So the NPF is now split in a Mugabe controlled aligned majority wing intent on spoiling the election for Mnangagwa and a minority wing made up of people who after all hate the MDC more than they hate Mnangagwa.

EDIT: I changed controlled to aligned as the exact relationship between the Mugabe family and the G40 leaders is a matter of dispute. See my post above for background. 

[Deleted]

Thanks for the updates @vintris, I think this is the first in-depth reporting of a Zimbabwe election on this forum. We often give the impression of not being that invested in threads like this because we're cut on a UK bias. I'm certainly very interested and keep coming back to your posts. I hope you stick around after polling day

[Deleted]

The Mugabe aligned majority wing of NPF has endorsed Nelson Chamisa for president and will not run a presidential candidate. There are persistent media rumours that they have cut a deal with the MDC Alliance and Daily News quote "well-placed sources" for saying the MDC Alliance has given the NPF four constituencies (Harare South, Kwekwe Central, one in Chiredzi, and one in opposition stronghold Bulawayo). 

Talks between the Chamisa led MDC-T and the much smaller Khupe led MDC-T have broken down with SG Obert Gutu from the Khupe wing saying MDC-T are in cahoots with Mugabe and "filled with gangsters". So it seems the Khupe wing will be running their own candidates. 

The gangster part probably refers to Chamisa's private militia the Order of the Vanguard under Shakespeare "Shackie" Mukoyi (there is something absurd about your head thug being called Shakespeare, but that is the way with many Zimbabwean names, one of their worst gangsters is called Innocent) which has terrorized Khupe loyalists and twice attacked Khupe herself.

Asked about their negotiations with MDC-T ZAPU leader Dumiso Dabengwa says he has heard nothing from MDC-T lately and that it looks unlikely they can join the MDC Alliance. ZAPU would not join the MDC Alliance if the Mugabe loyalists are accepted, so that could explain why MDC-T haven't returned with an offer.

Both Khupe and ZAPU primarily have Ndebele support and even if it's not much it could harm MDC-T in Matabeleland, where they need to run up the margins, especially if they also ally with NPF which is bound to depress turnout among opposition supporters in the region where the memory of the Gukurahundi massacres in the 80s is stil very much alive. 

Most observers seem to think MDC-T will lose more support among opposition supporters by teaming up with the NPF than they will gain in rural Shona areas. So hopefully the rumors aren't true. 

In other news Chamisa has declared that he will promote all traditional chiefs in Zimbabwe to kings if he wins, as the chief title was introduced by colonialists in an attempt to belittle African rulers. Though I doubt that is enough to sway the handsomely bribed chiefs into supporting MDC over ZANU-PF. 

[Deleted]

Presidential candidates who had their nomination papers approved:

Emerson Mnangagwa (ZANU-PF)
Nelson Chamisa (MDC Alliance)
Thokozani Khupe (MDC-T)
Joice Mujuru (People’s Rainbow Coalition)
Noah Manyika (Build Zimbabwe Alliance - BZA)
Violet Mariyacha (United Democratic Movement - UDM)

So Mujuru is running after all. Chamisa has tried to bar Khupe and her party from using the MDC-T name, but the case hasn't been resolved before the deadline so the party will be allowed to run as MDC-T, which is bound to cause confusion. 

The two no-names are US based business people who both make a lot of money from being charismatic and eloquent, their candidacies are pure self-promotion.
 
Violet Mariyacha is a California based businesswoman, singer/songwriter and motivational speaker.
Noah Manyika is a North Carolina based Evangelist, Senior Pastor of his own megachurch and president and founder of NeXus Ministries.

No news on how many candidacies were rejected. 

[Deleted]

Public broadcaster ZBC reports that nine other also-rans have been approved by the ZEC to (also) run for president: 

Nkosana Moyo, MBA and PhD in Physics (both degrees from respectable British universities), former Minister of Industry and International Trade. Left in Zimbabwe in 2001 to become a businessman in South Africa. Founder of the Alliance for People's Agenda (APA). Has an enormous ego, but minuscule support.

Lovemore Madhuku, professor of law at the University of Zimbabwe and leader of the National Constitutional Assembly. (NCA) A democracy NGO that broke with MDC-T in 2013 in protest against the unity government with ZANU-PF and transformed itself into a micro party.

Bryan "Sekuruta" Mteki, Chimurenga musician and sculptor.

Langton Taungana (formerly spelled Towungana), businessman, ex-teacher, religious nutjob and 2008 presidential candidate (he got 0.6%).

Everisto Chikanga, founder of the Rebuilding Zimbabwe Party (RZP), Methodist pastor, who was Oklahoma based for a long time, but apparently not anymore.

Divine Mhambi Hove, "entrepreneur", founder of the Nationalists Alliance of Patriotic & Democratic Republicans (NAPDR), another phone booth party.

Mapfumo Peter Gava, leader of the phone booth party United Democratic Front (UDF) which is "driven by God’s principals" and wants "de-Hararenize" Zimbabwe by cutting the central administration and moving the capital to remote Binga (5,000 inhabitants) at the border with Zambia in Northern Matabeleland.

Blessing Kusiyamhuri, from Zimbabwe Partnership for Prosperity, no idea who he is, only Google hit was about her nomination. A no name among no-names.

Kwanele Hlabangani, from Republicans Party of Zimbabwe, no idea who he is. 

So apart from Professor Madhuku and Sekuruta mostly people from the diaspora or nutters. None of them with any chance. 

[Deleted]

MDC-T has refused all appeals from candidates who were cheated out of primary wins through rigging or because the provincial leadership simply imposed one of the losing candidate on the constituency. 

In a last minute power grab they also cut the number of constituencies the small parties in the MDC Alliance gets, for some of them to half the agreed number. 

I doubt many of the disgruntled candidates would have had time to register as independents, but all these shenanigans could depress turnout in constituencies that ended up with an unpopular candidate. Though replacing a candidate from one of the micro parties with one from MDC-T will usually be popular with locals. 

[neilm]

There is money on Mapfumo.

Yes, I thought the same.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2018 12:31:43 GMT @vintris said:

The electoral roll announced by ZEC has 5,524,188 registed voters, which should be the final number.

Turns out it wasn't. They have now announced the final "consolidated" roll, which has 5,681,604 registered voters. The opposition hasn't able to monitor the "consolidation" process, so it has presumably been tinkered with. 

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2018 23:49:00 GMT @vintris said:

Langton Taungana (formerly spelled Towungana), businessman, ex-teacher, religious nutjob and 2008 presidential candidate (he got 0.6%).

ZEC has send out a list of 23, which should be the final one and Taungana isn't on it. This makes it the most crowded field in any Zimbabwean presidential election. 

The nine new entrants to the clown car include our old friend Rt. Genereal Mutinhiri Ambrose from the breakaway wing of the National Patriotic Front (NPF).

The most prominent among the rest is Elton Mangoma from the Coalition of Democrats, who was a founding member of MDC, but defected in 2014 together with current PDP leader Tendai Biti. He broke with Biti because he initiated negotiations with Joice Mujuru - and because of the usual personal rivalry. Mangoma is a chartered accountant by profession and was Minister of Energy and Minister of Economic Planning in the unity government. It's likely because of his feud with Biti he isn't in the MDC Alliance. His coalition includes former Minister of Finance Simba Makoni's old ZANU-PF breakaway Mavambo.Kusile.Dawn (M.K.D), which has some organization. Some circles in ZANU-PF wanted to replace Mugabe with Makoni before the 2008 election and after having defected he eventually ran against Mugabe receiving 8.3% in the first round. 

Tendai Peter Munyanduri running for the The New Patriotic Front (TNPF to distinguish it from NPF), formerly known as the Progressive and innovative Movement of Zimbabwe (PIMZ) and aiming to transform the country into a technology based economy. Another nutter/fantasist. 

Joseph Makamba Busha, founder of the FreeZim Congress (FZC), wealthy South Africa based investment banker and philanthropist. 

Tonderai Johannes Chiguvare from the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), no idea who he is. 

Melbah Dzapasi, running for her own #1980 Freedom Movement Zimbabwe. She is the founder of DEFT(Divine Ethics Foundation Trust) and Divine Alliance for Vitalisation of Inspired Development (D.A.V.ID). Presents herself as a religiously inspired idealist and feminist - could be a charlatan, these people often are in Africa. 

William Tawonezvi Mugadza from the Bethel Christian Party (BCP), another pastor and "religious entrepreneur" from the look of it. 

Daniel Shumba, founder of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Former Colonel in the army turned businessman and ZANU-PF Central Committee member. Was in G40 and went to NPF with the others after the coup, but broke away from it in February or was expelled, not sure which.

Harry Peter Wilson founder of the Democratic Opposition Party (DOP). Formerly in the leadership of Mavambo.Kusile.Dawn, but recently broke away saying Makoni is still "mentally in ZANU-PF". Biracial "businessman" (aren't they all?) who hails from the same village as Joshua Nkomo. He may or may not be the same HPW who in 2005 was convicted for smuggling 150+ illegal immigrants from Zimbabwe, South Africa and Jamaica into the UK by issuing fake visas, birth certificates, passports etc. They have the same age, but the smuggler doesn't look biracial, though that can be deceptive. Has been criticized for luring hundreds of poor supporters to a rally in Bulawayo and not reimbursing them for transport costs and food, basically leaving them stranded. So a conman up to new tricks, probably. 

[Deleted]

This is the first election with female presidential candidates - no less than four of them. 

Commentators seem to agree that the only minor candidates that are electorally relevant are Mujuru and Khupe, and perhaps Nkosana Moyo. They also agree Chamisa's failure to build the expected last minute alliances with Khupe and Mujuru is a significant handicap for him and might cost him the presidency if their voters end up not backing him in the run-off. Though the Afrobarometer poll showed very low support for third party candidates so the importance of a united opposition may be overrated.

The next hurdle for the opposition is if they can somehow pressure ZEC to allow them access to the voters roll and get it audited with participation of opposition and/or international observers. If they end up using an unaudited electoral roll it's going to be very difficult for Chamisa to win. So far the international pressure to secure this has been far too mild to be efficient. 

[Deleted]

ZAPU have decided to endorse Chamisa for president, but will field their own candidates for the National Assembly. Their veteran leader Dumiso Dabengwa said that reforms have improved the election process and "should things continue this way" the country could have a credible election - a hint to the audit of the electoral roll. Having support from ZAPU should help Chamisa a bit with turnout in rural Matabeleland.

NPF have officially joined the MDC Alliance after first fielding their own parliamentary candidates, they reportedly got five constituencies - one more than previously reported) and their SG Shadreck Mashayamombe will be the Alliance's candidate for Harare South. So probably a bit of last minute haggling to get an extra constituency.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2018 23:49:00 GMT @vintris said:

Bryan "Sekuruta" Mteki, Chimurenga musician and sculptor.

After filing his papers Mteki told the press that he wasn't going to campaign at all, but would rather chill at home and await the results.

[Deleted]

As always there are all sort of rumors about rigging with exiled G40 leader Prof. Jonathan Moyo delivering some of the more fanciful ones involving "a team of Chinese BVR & cyber experts from the People’s Liberation Army linked to a top Chinese university" which will "manipulate the voters roll through shadowy & virtual polling stations & fake voters". 

“The plot is to rig on an industrial scale. The rigging is centred on (1) Manipulation of the BVR Voters Roll; (2) Manipulation of Polling Stations by #ZEC technical staff from security organs & (3) Army intimidation of voters in villages!

For a more sober and balanced assessment the head of the Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa (OSISA) Siphosami Malunga gives a good overview in African Arguments. 

Zimbabwe: Six issues that must be fixed for elections to be free and fair

[johnloony]

A lot of those nanoparties are very PFJ/JPF ish. It's going to be like a big version of a UK parliamentary by-election with several candidates competing for last place.

[Deleted]

MDC-T now threatens to boycott the election if their demands regarding the election process aren't met.

"Our issues still stand. We want a credible voters’ roll, an audit of the voters’ roll. We want to know who is printing the ballot paper, where is it being printed, we want to be able to physically see that. That does not require an Electoral Act to allow us that but this answers to issues of transparency. It does not require the amendment of any law,” (...) “We want to know who is looking after this ballot paper after being printed. We want to know the quantity of the ballot paper. (..) What will happen to all the excess ballot papers? We want to know that. Our president (Chamisa) said if these demands are not met there will be no election. Don’t underestimate his resolve and capacity to follow through this threat."
www.theindependent.co.zw/2018/06/15/mdc-alliance-threatens-to-boycott-forthcoming-polls/

[Deleted]

The MDC Alliance manifesto includes a promise to move the capital to Gweru, the capital of the Midlands which (as the name implies) is located in the middle of the country and has an ethnically diverse population including a significant Ndebele minority - whereas Harare is in the Shona heartland. Kind of a daft proposal, not just because it will cost a lot of money Zimbabwe doesn't have but also because MDC-T rely on winning big in Harare. 

[Deleted]

At a rally in Matabeleland Chamisa has said that MDC-T has developed "strong ties" with the Central Intelligence Organization (CIO) and the national police (ZRP) as well as "some members within ZANU-PF", and that this will ensure victory. Even if that is true and not just bluffing it's not particularly smart to openly announce "I have cut a deal with G40 (which prior to the post-coup purges dominated the ZRP and controlled the bulk of the CIO), so you can't prevent us from taking over when we win". That is basically just confirming the worst fears among Mnangagwa and his backers in the army and increasing the risk that they will resort to large scale rigging or deploy even more soldiers to the countryside and step up their dog whistling about 2008 to intimidate rural voters (they have already sent 2,000 soldiers to rural areas).

The podium he stood on collapsed during the rally and pro-governmen media claim this is an omen for what will happen with his campaign.

[Deleted]

The Khupe faction of the MDC-T say they are running in 112 of the 210 constituencies. They blame their failure to run a full slate on the unavailability of the voter’s roll prior to nomination (which made it harder to collect valid signatures) and accuse the MDC Alliance of intimidating, harassing and perpetrating violence against their candidates and supporters (which seems likely given that Chamisa hasn't called off Vanguard). 

Running in more than half of the constituencies will likely be enough to damage the Chamisa faction considerably. Like everyone else they are running on development, growth in industry and agriculture, more jobs etc., but they are trying to make anti-discrimination and protection of women their special selling points. The majority of the electorate is female and they have a female leader, so I suppose that is a sensible strategy. Other than that they would have been boxed in as the "Ndebele splitters". 

Their Deputy President Obert Gutu is running in Harare East (represented by PDP leader Tendai Biti 2000-2014 until he was recalled and an opposition stronghold) says: 

“We are a Social Democratic political party that vigorously advocates for non-discrimination as well as the sustainable and holistic empowerment of historically disadvantaged persons as well as vulnerable groups such as persons with disabilities, women and children” (..) "Our party is also pushing a very strong anti-sexist trajectory."