Zimbabwe general election, 2018

[Deleted]

In a new Government Gazette the election date has been set to 30 July (which is about as late as it could be if held in July as promised). This low key way of announcing the date is probably due to limiting a final registration push. The electoral law states that three days after the president announces the election date voter registration has to be terminated to allow the ZEC to start processing the final voters' roll.

I will write a full introduction to the election when we know how many of the roughly 150 parties in Zimbabwe (most of them empty shells and phone booth parties formed by chancers and "job seekers") that are being allowed on the ballot and how many candidates are accepted. In the meantime I will try to update this thread regularly. 

While we are waiting to see which of the many parties get accepted by the ZEC, and who will ally with whom, here are the parties that have enough organizational structure to have an actual presence on the ground:

The National Patriotic Front (NPF), pro-Mugabe legacy party formally led by Rt. Brigadier General Ambrose Mutinhiri (74), but in reality controlled by the former G40 leaders and possibly also Grace Mugabe, though her influence remain uncertain. Haven't really started campaigning yet, banking on that there still is a Mugabe loyalist vote in rural areas.

ZANU-PF, the ruling party since independence led by president Emmerson Mnangagwa (75). Doesn't have any meaningful ideology at this point beyond boiler plate Nationalism. Still uses Liberation War rhetoric, but rhetorical anti-imperialism has mostly gone after the fall of Mugabe. As always they promise to create lots of jobs and new infrastructure without saying why they haven't done it before during all those years in power. Their control of public funds and resources, incl. housing, land and market stalls, control of traditional chiefs and ability to punish areas that vote against them are their main electoral assets.

The MDC-T is the main opposition party. After a short power struggle following the death of party founded Morgan Tsvangirai the bulk of the party was taken over by charismatic and silver tongued lawyer Nelson Chamisa (40), who sidelined the two older VPs. MDC-T are basically running on "change", with promises to shrink the government, root out corruption, boost development, and improve relations to the rest of the world. With the trade unions severely weakened its character of being a "labour party" has mostly gone. Chamisa is an Evangelical Christian which influences his political rhetoric that has become markedly more religious. I will at some point write a short biography on Chamisa, who is an interesting but somewhat problematic character.

The female MDC-T VP Thokozani Khupe (54) - who was the only one of the three VPs elected by congress - continues to operate a rival, but much smaller, version of the MDC-T together with a few former top party officials and is currently involved in a court case about the name and party symbols against the Chamisa faction. She rose through the trade union movement and is a founding member of the party with a more traditional Labour approach to politics and her party must be considered MDC Classic. Her three main deficiencies in fighting off Chamisa was lack of charisma and oratorial skills, being an Ndebele, and being a woman. She could act as a spoiler for the party in Matabeleland and Bulawayo, a region MDC-T needs to win big.

The (Chamisa faction of) MDC-T heads the MDC Alliance which includes two earlier breakaways from the MDC (or rather 1.5..), and a handful of even smaller parties that aren't really relevant. The 2005 breakaway MDC-N led by Prof. Welshman Ncube (56) is the only "third party" with seats in parliament, the second largest is the branch of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by party founder and former Minister of Finance Tendai Biti (51), who left MDC in 2014. Another branch of the PDP remain outside the alliance.

Former VP (until 2014) and ZANU-PF fat cat Joice Mujuru (63) leads the National People's Party (NPP). Mujuru is still incredibly wealthy thanks to all the ill gotten gains she and her late husband Genereal Solomon Mujuru got their hands on and could self finance a presidential campaign, but she doesn't seem to have any real support (her ex-supporters in the military moved on to G40 and then seemingly cut a deal with Mnangagwa) and recently launched her party manifesto in her home town rather than in Harare, which was seen as a sign she doesn't plan on running a national campaign. Mujuru lost control of her original party the Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) in 2017 after trying to expel the other members of its leadership, and ZPF is now in the MDC Alliance, but seems even smaller and less relevant than NPP. Mujuru leads her own opposition alliance the People's Rainbow Coalition which includes various micro parties - the main wing of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) under Lucia Matibenga and remnants of the Ndebele based liberation movement ZAPU led by the former commander of their military wing Dumiso Dabengwa (79) are the only remotely relevant ones. Though it seems ZAPU has left it recently and only three micro parties remain with Mujuru. She is now negotiating with Chamisa and most likely NPP will join the MDC alliance and back his candidature rather than Mujuru getting 2% in a presidential election and exposing her irrelevancy.

More background can be found in my Zimbabwe thread on OWW: oldwigwam.com/forums/index.php?topic=119.0

[Deleted]

The candidates for both parliament and president will be registered on 14 June, which means there will be a lot of frantic last minute alliance building within the opposition in the coming two weeks.

The presidential run-off will be held on 8 September, if necessary.

The National Council of Chiefs will be elected on 11 July, and its president and deputy president (both born Senators) will be elected on 18 July.

[Deleted]

Electoral system

The president is elected by a two-round system where the best placed needs to secure more than 50% in the first round to avoid a run-off, with a large amount of minor candidates on the ballot that is unlikely so the run-off on 8 September will probably take place.

Zimbabwe has a bicameral system with the lower chamber as the most powerful. The House of Assembly has 270 members, 210 of which are elected by FPTP in single-member constituencies. In addition there are 60 seats reserved for women elected by party list and PR with each of the ten provinces constituting a six seat constituency.

The Senate has 80 members, 60 of whom are elected in a similar way as the women's seats in the Assembly by party list and PR with each of the ten provinces constituting a six seat constituency. Additionally each Provincial Assembly of Chiefs in the eight "rural" provinces outside Harare and Bulawayo (the two cities have no assembly of chiefs) elect two Senators using single non-transferable vote. One female and one male with disabilities are elected using FPTP by an electoral college set up by the National Disability Board. In addition two seats are reserved for the President and Deputy President of the National Council of Chiefs. All the provincial assemblies of chiefs and the National Disability Board are controlled by ZANU-PF, so they automatically get 20 seats, although the opposition could conceivably bribe some of these to switch sides should they win the presidency.

A few notes on the election

The election will not be fair as ZANU-PF will use state funds, vehicles and planes, law enforcement agencies, tribal chiefs and media to their own advantage - as is customary in African elections. A certain amount of rigging will no doubt take place and the opposition will therefore likely need at least 55% of the vote to win, but there will be limits as to how much the elections can be rigged because of the desire to make them appear credible. Though maybe ZANU-PF will panic and resort to more authoritarian means and obvious rigging if they are about to lose, but that can't be taken for granted - we are in uncharted territory. Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) will be in place, international observes accepted - incl. from the Commonwealth for the first time since Zimbabwe was kicked out. Zimbabweans living overseas, which number several millions with the bulk of them being in South Africa, will only be allowed to vote if they travel "home" to the place they were registered when they left and even then many will have been purged from the electoral rolls, as the regime will expect the diaspora to be opposition supporters. 

The ZANU-PF primaries were very chaotic and filled with allegations of rigging and intimidation. As a consequence a large number of losing incumbents in constituency seats are expected to run as Independents making the outcome much harder to predict.

[Deleted]

May 31, 2018 14:35:38 GMT @vintris said:

Electoral system

The president is elected by a two-round system where the best placed needs to secure more than 50% in the first round to avoid a run-off, with a large amount of minor candidates on the ballot that is unlikely so the run-off on 8 September will probably take place.

Zimbabwe has a bicameral system with the lower chamber as the most powerful. The House of Assembly has 270 members, 210 of which are elected by FPTP in single-member constituencies. In addition there are 60 seats reserved for women elected by party list and PR with each of the ten provinces constituting a six seat constituency.

The Senate has 80 members, 60 of whom are elected in a similar way as the women's seats in the Assembly by party list and PR with each of the ten provinces constituting a six seat constituency. Additionally each Provincial Assembly of Chiefs in the eight "rural" provinces outside Harare and Bulawayo (the two cities have no assembly of chiefs) elect two Senators using single non-transferable vote. One female and one male with disabilities are elected using FPTP by an electoral college set up by the National Disability Board. In addition two seats are reserved for the President and Deputy President of the National Council of Chiefs. All the provincial assemblies of chiefs and the National Disability Board are controlled by ZANU-PF, so they automatically get 20 seats, although the opposition could conceivably bribe some of these to switch sides should they win the presidency.

A few notes on the election

The election will not be fair as ZANU-PF will use state funds, vehicles and planes, law enforcement agencies, tribal chiefs and media to their own advantage - as is customary in African elections. A certain amount of rigging will no doubt take place and the opposition will therefore likely need at least 55% of the vote to win, but there will be limits as to how much the elections can be rigged because of the desire to make them appear credible. Though maybe ZANU-PF will panic and resort to more authoritarian means and obvious rigging if they are about to lose, but that can't be taken for granted - we are in uncharted territory. Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) will be in place, international observes accepted - incl. from the Commonwealth for the first time since Zimbabwe was kicked out. Zimbabweans living overseas, which number several millions with the bulk of them being in South Africa, will only be allowed to vote if they travel "home" to the place they were registered when they left and even then many will have been purged from the electoral rolls, as the regime will expect the diaspora to be opposition supporters. 

The ZANU-PF primaries were very chaotic and filled with allegations of rigging and intimidation. As a consequence a large number of losing incumbents in constituency seats are expected to run as Independents making the outcome much harder to predict.

that electoral system is a SJW wet dream with all those quotas and special interests getting seats.

[swanarcadian]

I'm finding it difficult to rule out Robert Mugabe somehow becoming a candidate, and winning.  His presence is so ingrained into this county's politics that the fact he is gone hasn't really sunk in.

[Deleted]

May 31, 2018 16:16:09 GMT @barctom said:

May 31, 2018 14:35:38 GMT @vintris said:

Electoral system

The president is elected by a two-round system where the best placed needs to secure more than 50% in the first round to avoid a run-off, with a large amount of minor candidates on the ballot that is unlikely so the run-off on 8 September will probably take place.

Zimbabwe has a bicameral system with the lower chamber as the most powerful. The House of Assembly has 270 members, 210 of which are elected by FPTP in single-member constituencies. In addition there are 60 seats reserved for women elected by party list and PR with each of the ten provinces constituting a six seat constituency.

The Senate has 80 members, 60 of whom are elected in a similar way as the women's seats in the Assembly by party list and PR with each of the ten provinces constituting a six seat constituency. Additionally each Provincial Assembly of Chiefs in the eight "rural" provinces outside Harare and Bulawayo (the two cities have no assembly of chiefs) elect two Senators using single non-transferable vote. One female and one male with disabilities are elected using FPTP by an electoral college set up by the National Disability Board. In addition two seats are reserved for the President and Deputy President of the National Council of Chiefs. All the provincial assemblies of chiefs and the National Disability Board are controlled by ZANU-PF, so they automatically get 20 seats, although the opposition could conceivably bribe some of these to switch sides should they win the presidency.

A few notes on the election

The election will not be fair as ZANU-PF will use state funds, vehicles and planes, law enforcement agencies, tribal chiefs and media to their own advantage - as is customary in African elections. A certain amount of rigging will no doubt take place and the opposition will therefore likely need at least 55% of the vote to win, but there will be limits as to how much the elections can be rigged because of the desire to make them appear credible. Though maybe ZANU-PF will panic and resort to more authoritarian means and obvious rigging if they are about to lose, but that can't be taken for granted - we are in uncharted territory. Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) will be in place, international observes accepted - incl. from the Commonwealth for the first time since Zimbabwe was kicked out. Zimbabweans living overseas, which number several millions with the bulk of them being in South Africa, will only be allowed to vote if they travel "home" to the place they were registered when they left and even then many will have been purged from the electoral rolls, as the regime will expect the diaspora to be opposition supporters. 

The ZANU-PF primaries were very chaotic and filled with allegations of rigging and intimidation. As a consequence a large number of losing incumbents in constituency seats are expected to run as Independents making the outcome much harder to predict.

that electoral system is a SJW wet dream with all those quotas and special interests getting seats.

Women's quotas are fairly common in Africa and also exists in some other developing countries because gender inequality has been so extreme (as an example the Jordanian parliament has a women's quota). I seriously doubt SJWs would want reserved seats for the chiefs, which are comparable to the hereditary seats in the House of Lords (if elected by the peers in a county). Special rights for the nobility is not exactly something SJWs are usually in favour of, that is one minority group they tend not to emphasize with. 

[Deleted]

Also there is the disability list.
We have the House of Lords and the left seem contempt with that institution as long as it is backing remain.

[Deleted]

Countries and territories with legislated candidate quotas in the lower or upper house of parliament or at sub-national levels (2014, you can add a few like Jordan now). Of course candidate quotas are different from allocating an actual quota of MPs. But it show how widespread the concept is.
www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/atlas-of-electoral-gender-quotas.pdf

Americas: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay.


Europe: Albania, Armenia, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain.


Asia and Oceania: Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, Timor-Leste, Uzbekistan.


Africa and Middle East: Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Iraq, Kenya, Lesotho, Libya, Mauritania, Mauritius, Rwanda, Senegal, Namibia, Palestine, South Africa, Togo, Tunisia, Zimbabwe.


Territories and special areas: Kosovo.

[Deleted]

May 31, 2018 16:21:16 GMT swanarcadian said:

I'm finding it difficult to rule out Robert Mugabe somehow becoming a candidate, and winning.  His presence is so ingrained into this county's politics that the fact he is gone hasn't really sunk in.

The G40 faction has formed the New Patriotic Front, which will be the pro-Mugabist party. But there is no chance of Old Bob running, at the moment it's more likely he will end up being incarcerated for contempt of Parliament.

May 30, 2018 14:18:38 GMT @vintris said:

Mugabe has been given a final ultimatum and risks going to jail for continuing to ignore orders by Parliament to give evidence before the Committee on Mines and Energy about the disappearance of diamond revenue worth $15 billion from the Chiadzwa mine fields during his tenure. The committee is headed by an Independent and not under ZANU-PF control, so even if they want to protect him it could be tricky (and Mnangagwa may be tired of him anyway).

[East Anglian Lefty]

I presume that outside of the designated women's lists female representation tends to be derisory?

[Deleted]

May 31, 2018 21:13:32 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I presume that outside of the designated women's lists female representation tends to be derisory?

Discounting by-elections and retirements, purges etc. because that is too complex and going back to the 2013 elections:

Women in the National Assembly:

Reserved seats: 60
Constituency seats: 26 of 210

Women in the Senate: 

Elected: 37 of 60 (a minimum of 50% of the candidates on Senate lists have to be female)
Chiefs: 0 of 18 (there are only six female full chiefs in the country, none of whom are Senators)
Disabled female: 1
 
So 47.5% of the 80 Senators elected & selected in 2013 were women. 

[Deleted]

Thanks for the posts @vintris , really interesting

[Foggy]

Without wishing to detract too much from discussion of Zimbabwe, I do find it interesting to note that in the linked study, the methods used to ensure a certain percentage of women are elected to the legislature appear to be more subtle in developed countries than in developing ones. One other important development since it was published has been the introduction of gender-balanced 'binomial' lists for use in France at élections départementales since 2015.

It's also notable that the paper lists Palestine as a country, but Taiwan and Kosovo as territories.

[Deleted]

While we are waiting to see which of the many parties get accepted by the ZEC, and who will ally with whom, here are the parties that have enough organizational structure to have an actual presence on the ground:

The National Patriotic Front (NPF), pro-Mugabe legacy party formally led by Rt. Brigadier General Ambrose Mutinhiri (74), but in reality controlled by the former G40 leaders and possibly also Grace Mugabe, though her influence remain uncertain. Haven't really started campaigning yet, banking on that there still is a Mugabe loyalist vote in rural areas. 

ZANU-PF, the ruling party since independence led by president Emmerson Mnangagwa (75). Doesn't have any meaningful ideology at this point beyond boiler plate Nationalism. Still uses Liberation War rhetoric, but rhetorical anti-imperialism has mostly gone after the fall of Mugabe. As always they promise to create lots of jobs and new infrastructure without saying why they haven't done it before during all those years in power. Their control of public funds and resources, incl. housing, land and market stalls, control of traditional chiefs and ability to punish areas that vote against them are their main electoral assets.

The MDC-T is the main opposition party. After a short power struggle following the death of party founded Morgan Tsvangirai the bulk of the party was taken over by charismatic and silver tongued lawyer Nelson Chamisa (40), who sidelined the two older VPs. MDC-T are basically running on "change", with promises to shrink the government, root out corruption, boost development and improve relations to the rest of the world. With the trade unions severely weakened its character of being a "labour party" has mostly gone. Chamisa is an Evangelical Christian which influences his political rhetoric that has become markedly more religious. I will at some point write a short biography on Chamisa, who is an interesting but somewhat problematic character. 

The female MDC-T VP Thokozani Khupe (54) - who was the only one of the three VPs elected by congress - continues to operate a rival, but much smaller, version of the MDC-T together with a few former top party officials and is currently involved in a court case about the name and party symbols against the Chamisa faction. She rose through the trade union movement and is a founding member of the party with a more traditional Labour approach to politics and her party must be considered MDC Classic. Her three main deficiencies in fighting off Chamisa was lack of charisma and oratorial skills, being an Ndebele, and being a woman. She could act as a spoiler for the party in Matabeleland and Bulawayo, a region MDC-T needs to win big.

The (Chamisa faction of) MDC-T heads the MDC Alliance which includes two earlier breakaways from the MDC (or rather 1.5..), and a handful of even smaller parties that aren't really relevant. The 2005 breakaway MDC-N led by Prof. Welshman Ncube (56) is the only "third party" with seats in parliament, the second largest is the branch of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by party founder and former Minister of Finance Tendai Biti (51), who left MDC in 2014. Another branch of the PDP remain outside the alliance.

Former VP (until 2014) and ZANU-PF fat cat Joice Mujuru (63) leads the National People's Party (NPP). Mujuru is still incredibly wealthy thanks to all the ill gotten gains she and her late husband Genereal Solomon Mujuru got their hands on and could self finance a presidential campaign, but she doesn't seem to have any real support (her ex-supporters in the military moved on to G40 and then seemingly cut a deal with Mnangagwa) and recently launched her party manifesto in her home town rather than in Harare, which was seen as a sign she doesn't plan on running a national campaign. Mujuru lost control of her original party the Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) in 2017 after trying to expel the other members of its leadership, and ZPF is now in the MDC Alliance, but seems even smaller and less relevant than NPP. Mujuru leads her own opposition alliance the People's Rainbow Coalition which includes various micro parties - the main wing of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) under Lucia Matibenga and the remnant of the Ndebele based liberation movement ZAPU led by the former commander of their military wing Dumiso Dabengwa (79) are the only remotely relevant ones. Though it seems ZAPU has left it recently and only three micro parties remain with Mujuru. She is now negotiating with Chamisa and most likely NPP will join the MDC alliance and back his candidature rather than Mujuru getting 2% in a presidential election and exposing her irrelevancy. 

[Deleted]

Mnangagwa has started a purge targeting MPs and party officials allegedly plotting a post-election impeachment of him. At a ZANU-PF politburo on Wednesday the party recalled the three MPs Godfrey Gandawa (Magunje), Beater Nyamupinga (Goromonzi West) and Masango Matambanadzo (Kwekwe Central) and set up a Special Committee to investigate "infiltrators" among the primary election winners suspected to be working against party interests (paid by "outsiders" etc.). At least two of the recalled MPs plan to run as independents.

Mnangagwa revealed the alleged plot to impeach him and pleaded with disenchanted party members to rally behind his presidency. The whole idea of a post-election impeachment of Mnangagwa seems a bit far fetched as an impeached president can still dissolve parliament and call new elections, which makes the threat of impeachment a bit hollow. But it's clear that ZANU-PF is deeply factionalized and that the chaotic primaries have intensified an already toxic atmosphere.

[Deleted]

We got the first poll by local Mpoi (Mass Public Opinion Institute) and Afrobarometer with a 2,399 sample and a MoE of +/- 2  at a 95% confidence level. It's conducted between 28 April and 13 May and seems to confirm that ZANU-PF retain support in rural Zimbabwe where people have faith in Mnangagwa being able to lead an economic recovery. It also confirms that all other candidates than the Top 2 are irrelevant.  

Emmerson Mnangagwa 42
Nelson Chamisa 31 
Others 2
Undecided 25

Opinion of the November 2017 military intervention to remove Mugabe

The right thing to do 41
Wrong, but necessary 40
Wrong 12
Don't know/Declined 6

The analysts conclude that "despite widespread support or acceptance of the military intervention, large majorities rejected military rule and any regular role of the military in the country’s politics", not sure if they deduce that purely from those numbers or have made follow-up questions. They note that the views on the military intervention varied considerably by province, but only modestly by party affiliation. I will se if I can located the actual numbers. 

Afrobarometer is a pan-African research network that conducts surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions etc. all over sub-Saharan Africa. They use face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples and are quite good. But of course getting the right sample for African polling is tricky. It has been a problem in Zimbabwe that respondents are afraid to state their opinion to pollsters so there could be a shy Chamisa vote.
 
The Pan-African Forum Limited (PAFL) led by ZANU-PF mouthpiece Nyekorach Matsanga has also conducted a "poll" saying Mnangagwa will get 70% vs. 24% to Chamisa, but that is almost certainly based on numbers pulled out of thin air. The same goes for a Trends and Insights for Africa "poll" giving Mnangagwa 68.5% vs. 19.5% for Chamisa. 

[Deleted]

MDC-T launched their election manifesto yesterday under the title "Behold the New, Change that Delivers". Highly unusually state broadcaster ZBC actually covered the launch, and since MDC-T was allowed to demonstrate in Harare on Monday Mnangagwa is at least trying to make the campaign appear somewhat "fair" even though the election coverage in the state controlled media is still massively skewed.

The MDC-T manifesto called Sustainable and Modern Agenda for Real Transformation (SMART) is unfortunately a lot of populist fluff and "grand visions" of transforming the country into an economic powerhouse (creating a $100 billion economy anchored on mining, agriculture, tourism by buoying the entrepreneurial spirit etc.), but that was to be expected. 

The most interesting element is that they will join the Rand Monetary Union as a "stopgap measure" (imo they should just do it permanently) and ditching the current "bond notes" based on a multi-currency basket (pricing is still in US dollars just about everywhere). 

They also want to "re-establish a rights-based society, in which citizens’ interests and freedoms are protected" and "fully protect the rights of minorities, special interest groups and disadvantaged communities" by implementing a Citizen Charter.

There are good elements and practical proposals in it, its just the "miracle" stuff about the economy that is annoying and in general it lacks realistic financing. Compared to e.g. the Kenyan opposition's also quite "visionary" manifesto up to the last elections this is too much pie in the sky. But manifestos do not really matter anyway, even less so than they do in Western countries. 

[Deleted]

It has caused a stir that NPF and G40 supporters joined the MDC Alliance demonstrations in Harare in support of electoral reforms. ZANU-PF had threatened to purge all party members participating (a lot of NPF members are still in ZANU-PF as well). 

Several G40 and NPF candidates won party primaries within ZANU-PF and that has given rise to the conspiracy theory that they are planning to impeach Mnangagwa after the election and the recall of, so far, three MPs. Second VP Kembo Mohadi has said ZANU-PF will simply recall all G40 affiliated MPs that are elected and hold by-elections in their constituencies (obviously not a particularly democratic procedure, which has been criticized). While First VP Rt. General Constantino Chiwenga has warned that intelligence reports show G40 members are planning to vote for Chamisa. Both sides are keenly aware that Mugabe loyalists could become the kingmakers as the biggest "independent" vote bloc. 

It's hard for Mnangagwa to crush G40 during an ongoing campaign that is supposed to appear democratic, but the arrest of Mugabe's son in law and threats of legal actions against Mugabe (see the Zimbabwe thread) along with the tough talk from his deputies show that he is trying to intimidate G40 into submission, but that could very well backfire. 

[Deleted]

A couple of informations I thought should be somewhere in the thread.

Organizations sending observer missions:

SADC
EU
The Commonwealth
COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa)
International Republican Institute (US based)
National Democratic Institute (US based)

The electoral roll announced by ZEC has 5,524,188 registed voters, which should be the final number.

[Deleted]

The Mpoi/Afrobarometer poll: afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/zim_r7_presentation_07062018.pdf

A couple of questions:

Direction of the country

Going in the wrong direction: 62%
Going in the right direction: 32%
Don't know: 6%

68/26 among urban respondents, 59/36 among rurals. 

"Was 2017 military intervention right or wrong?"

The right thing to do
ZANU-PF 43
MDC-T 39

The wrong thing but necessary
ZANU-PF 36
MDC-T 50

The wrong thing to do
ZANU-PF 14
MDC-T 10

Don’t know
ZANU-PF 6
MDC-T 1

So there was some difference. With far more MDC supporters choosing the "wrong thing but necessary" category.  

Views on military rule
Disapprove/Strongly disapprove 71
Approve/Strongly approve 20

Not a big rural/urban difference on this. 68/75 against and 23/15 in favour respectively. 

By party:

Disapprove/Strongly disapprove
ZANU-PF 59
MDC-T 86

Approve/Strongly approve 

ZANU-PF 31
MDC-T 10 (fairly high number actually)

Should the military be involved in politics?

Yes 28 (The armed forces liberated Zimbabwe from colonial rule; they must therefore continue to be actively involved in the country’s politics)
No 68 (The armed forces are for the external defence and security of Zimbabwe; they must not be involved at all in the country’s politics)

Other findings:
44% expect incorrect results will be announced and 29% think their vote won't be counted. 
Only 57% have heard of the MDC Alliance.
45-50% of voters dislike all small parties (probably viewing them as parasites and/or vehicles for job seekers).
77% say they will definitely vote. 

The like/dislike ratio for the Big 2

MDC-T 36/29
ZANU-PF 46/28

ZANU-PF  like/dislike ratio
Rural 58/20
Urban 26/43

MDC-T like/dislike ratio
Rural 27/37
Urban 52/15

Big regional variance on this of course, only 13% like ZANU-PF in Bulawayo vs. 68% in Masvingo. The ruling party is most disliked in Harare 45% and Matabeleland North with 41% followed by Bulawayo with 38%, but Bulawayo has a much bigger "Don't know" share than the other regions (18%) and the low dislike is almost certainly due to opposition supporters being more fearful of saying they hare ZANU-PF in Bulawayo which has a high level of political violence. "Don't know" is at 0-5% everywhere else.

MDC-T is most liked in:

Harare 54%
Bulawayo 45%
Matabeleland North 42%

Matabeleland South has a suspiciously high "Don't know" share on this. The opposition is significantly stronger in  Matabeleland North than Matabeleland South, but they should win all of the three Ndebele dominated regions handily. 

Who will win the election?
ZANU-PF 44
MDC-T 28