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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 20, 2024 18:17:44 GMT
I am absolutely baffled, I have just discovered that I have been blocked on Twitter by @suzyjourno, Suzanne Breen, the Political Editor of the Belfast Telegraph. As I have never had a nasty or controversial interaction with her, and respect her political journalism, and am not sure she is even aware of my existence, I wonder why she has blocked me? I have been blocked on Twitter by several people with whom I have had no interaction. I think some people have "block lists" which they copy from other people, often with tenuous reasons which don't make sense. On Twitter it’s very common to see posts and comments under posts from people you don’t follow or interact with. It must also be quite common to think “what a total booliak” and feel tempted to block them. Sometimes just looking at someone’s profile is off putting enough. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861 
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Post by obsie on Nov 20, 2024 19:26:03 GMT
There are 682 candidatures for Dáil Éireann, a record. That includes one candidate contesting six constituencies (John O'Leary), and one candidate contesting three constituencies (Ben Gilroy). Louth has 25 candidates which is an all-time record. Amusingly this John O'Leary is doing what one Seán O'Leary did last time. Does anybody know anything about him, it's a very common name. (The less said about Ben Gilroy the better). I'm pretty sure it's the same person. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by obsie on Nov 20, 2024 19:36:40 GMT
On the O'Bradaigh note- do Republican Sinn Fein exist in any meaningful way these days? Like a lot of other theological offshoots of Republicanism, they still *exist* - they have one county councillor in Conamara - but they're no longer any sort of meaningful force. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2024 19:39:58 GMT
Amusingly this John O'Leary is doing what one Seán O'Leary did last time. Does anybody know anything about him, it's a very common name. (The less said about Ben Gilroy the better). I'm pretty sure it's the same person. What's he going to be called next time, Giovanni O'Leary!? |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2024 19:49:14 GMT
I'm pretty sure it's the same person. What's he going to be called next time, Giovanni O'Leary!? okay, arguments in favor of this theory: three of John O'Leary's five constituencies are in County Cork, including Cork NW where Seán O'Leaey is from. Argument against: Seán O'Leary is also a candidate in this election, standing against the prime minister in Wicklow. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 20, 2024 19:55:41 GMT
My step-father was always called Seán in England, but Uncle Johnny in Cavan. The swapping between names is very common in Irish families.
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 20, 2024 20:02:45 GMT
My step-father was always called Seán in England, but Uncle Johnny in Cavan. The swapping between names is very common in Irish families. Yes, and that makes sense of course. There's a (partial) parallel with Ashkenazi names here. But standing under two different names at the same election? |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 20, 2024 20:53:50 GMT
On the O'Bradaigh note- do Republican Sinn Fein exist in any meaningful way these days? Like a lot of other theological offshoots of Republicanism, they still *exist* - they have one county councillor in Conamara - but they're no longer any sort of meaningful force. However, O'Curráin who was re-elected this year is actually on the ballot paper as an Independent. I think this is because RSF are not a registered party on the ballot paper. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 20, 2024 22:04:34 GMT
Meath East (4) gains a seat at this election. Rural North Meath that was exiled into Monaghan at the last election is now returned safely home as is a swathe of territory from Julianstown including Laytown, Bettystown and Gormanstown on the Dublin-Belfast trainline, the Meath coast that was previously part of the Louth constituency. Kells, Ashbourne, Ratoath, Dunshaughlin, Nobber, and Dunboyne would be some of the largest settlements in this area which also includes Tayto Park, Fairyhouse Racecourse and Slane Castle where that has hosted many rock concerts over the years. Rathcarn, a Gaeltacht area is also found here, families moved from Connacht who retained gaeilge through farming. In this part of Meath you find Newgrange, older than Stonehenge but smaller, and perhaps the inspiration as suggested by Bernard Cornwell in his good book Stonehenge! It is truly worth seeing on the Summer and Winter Solstice and there is a lottery for tickets. I've been there twice and was once there on a school tour also. The Boyne Valley contains a swathe of Megalithic tombs from the Celtic Bronze age including some recently discovered. The Hill of Tara was the site of Ancient Irish Kingship where it was said the High King was crowned to have suzerainty over the island. Meath or Mide was also once a Kingdom, ruled by the Southern O'Neill, the Northern Branch ruling Ulster through Tyrone until the Flight of the Earls in 1607.
Strong, fertile farming land is found here into which has come swathes of new families and new communities. There is a spur connecting the Dublin-Sligo train near Castleknock to Meath at the M3 Parkway which also takes trains to Dunboyne. The extension of this to Navan will address the issue referred to on the prediction for Meath West.
Sitting TDs: Minister Helen McEntee (FG), Minister Thomas Byrne (FF) and Darren O'Rourke (SF)
FG are running Minister McEntee now Deputy Leader of the Party as well as Minister for Justice and Cllr Sharon Tolan from Laytown-Bettystown. McEntee is from North Meath and I expect her to be re-elected. Regina Doherty left the constituency after her seat loss at the last election and moved to Dublin Fingal subsequently winning a Euro seat there. FG once had 2 seats here through Doherty and McEntee but I can't see 2 seats here now after FG's long stint in Government.
FF are running Thomas Byrne and Cllr Caroline O'Reilly who is from Kilcloon in the Ratoath Electoral Area. She had been propelled into public life after the sudden and tragic death of her cousin, Damien O'Reilly, also a Councillor for the area for some considerable time. The O'Reilly family go back a long way in FF political circles. Thomas Byrne's family have a history in both the Drogheda political life of Louth and in Meath as he is related to the Hilliards through his mother. First elected in 2007 he lost his seat in 2011, served in the Seanad and regained it in 2016 and has held it since. I favour Byrne to retain his seat but it is in the SE corner of the constituency where the battle will be fought for the last and Caroline is in the running. The addition of the Northern territory will help Byrne with extra FF votes.
SF will retain their seat here through Darren O'Rourke who is Ashbourne based but are running Maria White, a School Principal from the east of the constituency to try to gain transfers.
The last seat is therefore of interest. Cllr Gillian Toole topped the poll in Ratoath in June as an Independent with over 3K votes and will make a push to make a claim on the Independent vote here. Peadar Tóibín's sister, Emer, is running for Aontú, and while a Cllr and a good candidate I don't think she's in line for a seat here. Cllr Joe Bonner topped the poll in Ashbourne also and could also make good headway. Now Senator Sharon Keogan almost made it to the Dáil at the last election here as an Independent hence I favour an Indo for the last seat. Independent votes are there.
Prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1IND.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 20, 2024 22:33:07 GMT
Meath East (4) gains a seat at this election. Rural North Meath that was exiled into Monaghan at the last election is now returned safely home as is a swathe of territory from Julianstown including Laytown, Bettystown and Gormanstown on the Dublin-Belfast trainline, the Meath coast that was previously part of the Louth constituency. Kells, Ashbourne, Ratoath, Dunshaughlin, Nobber, and Dunboyne would be some of the largest settlements in this area which also includes Tayto Park, Fairyhouse Racecourse and Slane Castle where that has hosted many rock concerts over the years. Rathcarn, a Gaeltacht area is also found here, families moved from Connacht who retained gaeilge through farming. In this part of Meath you find Newgrange, older than Stonehenge but smaller, and perhaps the inspiration as suggested by Bernard Cornwell in his good book Stonehenge! It is truly worth seeing on the Summer and Winter Solstice and there is a lottery for tickets. I've been there twice and was once there on a school tour also. The Boyne Valley contains a swathe of Megalithic tombs from the Celtic Bronze age including some recently discovered. The Hill of Tara was the site of Ancient Irish Kingship where it was said the High King was crowned to have suzerainty over the island. Meath or Mide was also once a Kingdom, ruled by the Southern O'Neill, the Northern Branch ruling Ulster through Tyrone until the Flight of the Earls in 1607. Strong, fertile farming land is found here into which has come swathes of new families and new communities. There is a spur connecting the Dublin-Sligo train near Castleknock to Meath at the M3 Parkway which also takes trains to Dunboyne. The extension of this to Navan will address the issue referred to on the prediction for Meath West. Sitting TDs: Minister Helen McEntee (FG), Minister Thomas Byrne (FF) and Darren O'Rourke (SF) FG are running Minister McEntee now Deputy Leader of the Party as well as Minister for Justice and Cllr Sharon Tolan from Laytown-Bettystown. McEntee is from North Meath and I expect her to be re-elected. Regina Doherty left the constituency after her seat loss at the last election and moved to Dublin Fingal subsequently winning a Euro seat there. FG once had 2 seats here through Doherty and McEntee but I can't see 2 seats here now after FG's long stint in Government. FF are running Thomas Byrne and Cllr Caroline O'Reilly who is from Kilcloon in the Ratoath Electoral Area. She had been propelled into public life after the sudden and tragic death of her cousin, Damien O'Reilly, also a Councillor for the area for some considerable time. The O'Reilly family go back a long way in FF political circles. Thomas Byrne's family have a history in both the Drogheda political life of Louth and in Meath as he is related to the Hilliards through his mother. First elected in 2007 he lost his seat in 2011, served in the Seanad and regained it in 2016 and has held it since. I favour Byrne to retain his seat but it is in the SE corner of the constituency where the battle will be fought for the last and Caroline is in the running. The addition of the Northern territory will help Byrne with extra FF votes. SF will retain their seat here through Darren O'Rourke who is Ashbourne based but are running Maria White, a School Principal from the east of the constituency to try to gain transfers. The last seat is therefore of interest. Cllr Gillian Toole topped the poll in Ratoath in June as an Independent with over 3K votes and will make a push to make a claim on the Independent vote here. Peadar Tóibín's sister, Emer, is running for Aontú, and while a Cllr and a good candidate I don't think she's in line for a seat here. Cllr Joe Bonner topped the poll in Ashbourne also and could also make good headway. Now Senator Sharon Keogan almost made it to the Dáil at the last election here as an Independent hence I favour an Indo for the last seat. Independent votes are there. Prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1IND. On the whole, I agree with your analysis. I am a bit surprised Sharon Keogan didn't run herself, and her backing of Gillian Toole will likely be significant. As you say, Emer Tóibín is a good candidate and I wouldn't be surprised to see her poll a significant number of FPVs, well up from 3.9% last time. In reference to Sharon Keogan, despite you saying she "almost made it to the Dáil at the last election", she didn't really, always polling behind Joe Bonner, and he might well be the beneficiary of late transfers for the last seat. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Nov 20, 2024 23:24:48 GMT
"Wexford-Wicklow (3) is a new constituency and has one of the most universally unpopular names of an Irish constituency ever" I did think it was strange to have the same place named in two different constituencies. Was any alternative considered? Are there any detailed maps available for the Forum to use to suggest a better name? Ireland could always follow the developing British policy of including in the name virtually every village in a constituency! I'd love that! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Nov 20, 2024 23:26:56 GMT
I am absolutely baffled, I have just discovered that I have been blocked on Twitter by @suzyjourno, Suzanne Breen, the Political Editor of the Belfast Telegraph. As I have never had a nasty or controversial interaction with her, and respect her political journalism, and am not sure she is even aware of my existence, I wonder why she has blocked me? I have been blocked on Twitter by several people with whom I have had no interaction. I think some people have "block lists" which they copy from other people, often with tenuous reasons which don't make sense. BlueSky has blocklists based on specific phrases which have proved really useful as I start up there. Block quickly, block widely, block on sight. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 21, 2024 2:28:20 GMT
Louth (5) Remains a 5 seat constituency but loses the territory of the East Meath coast back to Meath East. Currently Drogheda has a larger population than Dundalk, though not by much. Dundalk remains the County town and soccer rivalry between the towns is as unique as ever. Outside of Kildare North this is the most urbanised Irish county, Kildare is more urbanised than Louth now, and constituency other than the Dublin ones. Most of the elected TDs will have an electoral presence in the main population centres. After Drogheda and Dundalk, Ardee is next followed by Dunleer. Settlements vary in size throughout the county depending on location, Blackrock is in effect a dormitory town of Dundalk and Termonfeckin and areas such as Baltray are effectively now commuter areas of Drogheda which has grown considerably due to the expansion of Greater Dublin. The Boyne Valley remains a beautiful tourism area to see as in Meath but tourists shouldn't just go to Drogheda and see the Boyne Battle site and not go further North. Ardee, in Irish, Ath Fhirdia or the Ford of Ferdia, takes its origins from An Táin which is commemorated in Sculpture in the Town though more signs of this are further north in Dundalk or Dén Dealgan or Dealga's Fort which also may relate to the times of An Táin. Indeed the Crest of Dundalk refers to Cúchulainn, the Hound of Ulster, who is commemorated on the Crest of the town proudly as "Where Brave Cúchulainn was Born." This site is preserved and today is known as Cúchulainn's Castle or Castletown Mount. Various street-names, estate names including private and public housing commemorate the legend which is a tourist trail in itself. Part of the Boyne battle was also fought on the Northern side of Dundalk as was the Battle of Faughart where Edward Bruce, Robert Bruce's brother was killed. The Bruce Invasion was an interesting period of Irish History and a sub-set of the Scottish resistance to Longshanks and Edward II in opening up a Second Front in Ireland. It has been recognised by the Ulster-Scots Agency as important to commemorate. The graveyard where his headstone lies also contains various uninvestigated historical artefacts and mounds associated with St Brigid, whose Shrine is found west of the Graveyard near the Battlesite and overlooking Dundalk and the Plain of Muirhevna where the Táin battles were fought. It is well worth a visit and is so near the Ring of Gullion also in South Armagh and the Mountains of Mourne. The Cooley Peninsula is also a place of at times stark and bleak natural beauty, great for hillwalking, orienteering and Carlingford if in France would have become a tourist mecca in the 1980s. This is only touching a sketchbook here but there is really lots to see its just sometimes the Tourism Operates only send the Americans for example to Dublin, Kerry and perhaps Galway. Marketing has to be done better.
Regarding the music obviously The Corrs are from Dundalk, Dermot O'Brien was from Ardee and so Eamonn Campbell of The Dubliners was from Drogheda. Fairwell to Carlingford could be considered a Louth anthem sung here by Tommy Maken "The Bard of Armagh."
Current TDs: Ruairi O Murchu (SF) and Ged Nash (Lab). Imelda Munster (SF), Fergus O'Dowd (FG) and Peter Fitzpatrick (Independent) are all retiring.
Big change here then. An obvious vacuum as 3 TDs were elected the last time in Drogheda and now 1 remains in Nash hence I give him a seat as the only sitting Drogheda TD who will likely benefit also from proportion of personal vote loss of the other 2 incumbents.
Imelda Munster in stepping down has cleared the way for a smooth succession for Cllr Joanna Byrne of SF. She was co-opted to her Council seat when she became a TD years ago and has been re-elected twice since and is now Chair of Drogheda United Soccer Club who have avoided relegation last weekend and also won the FAI Cup (Irish FA Cup). Big deal in Drogheda and very good PR for Joanna and South Louth SF which should help her retain the Drogheda SF seat. I consider the Dundalk SF seat safe for O Murchu. This was originally Arthur Morgan's seat and was then succeeded by Adams who then retired in Ruairi's favour. This seat won't be lost. The first SF TD elected here before Morgan was a Hunger-Striker called Paddy Agnew who was from Dundalk. His election together with Kieran Doherty in Cavan-Monaghan denied FF under CJ Haughey an overall majority in that election. SF added on a 3rd candidate before close of poll, North Louth Cllr Antoin Watters who has exceeded the quota at his last 2 local elections and who is from Cooley. Long-term the party have great aspirations to win a 3rd seat in Louth perhaps before they achieve it in Cavan-Monaghan due to demographics, geography and greater urbanisation. However, I don't think they will achieve it on this occasion. Currently they are the largest party on the Council again since June.
The loss of the East Meath territory likely disadvantaged South Louth candidates the most. Accordingly is it possible to elect 3 North Louth as against 2 South this time?
For FG Cllr Paula Butterly is the Southern Candidate but is from Togher outside Dunleer. A rural area quite different from Drogheda in population make-up. Senator John McGahon who failed to make it at the last Dáil election where Fitzpatrick prevailed is hoping to take the FG seat here. Fitzpatrick was FG before defecting to Independent over the issue of abortion. However from a business background and the then Louth GAA Manager at the time he was recruited into the party and it is possible that many of his supporters are personal to him. Controversy in the media which was also raised during the first leaders debate has affected the candidature of McGahon over a case from several years ago.
FF have chosen 2 women, Senator Erin McGreehan, a former Cllr who won the selection convention comprehensively and Alison Comyn who was subsequently added on by HQ in Drogheda. McGreehan comes from a small-farming background in the traditional FF Cooley area and has an Office in Dundalk. Comyn is currently a journalist in Drogheda and has worked with SKY, RTE, BBC, UTV and CH4. A talented speaker she is a good addition to the ticket. The party lost their traditional seat at the last election which they had held since 1927 when Frank Aiken was first elected under the party banner. He represented the area for 46 years often as a Minister and also at the United Nations. They hope to regain it at this election. Historically the strongest base for the FF vote and indeed where Aiken started out was in North Louth and if FF prevail I think it will be McGreehan.
Cllr Kevin Callan current Cathaoirleach of LCC and a former Mayor of Drogheda is running as an Independent. A barrister and in effect a populist he quit FG over water charges and has been Independent since. He has the support of a number of other Independent Cllrs supporting him to win a seat essentially in the Drogheda area.
Other candidates to mention include Cllr Marianne Butler of the Greens, a 3 term Cllr I expect her to poll well especially in Dundalk but not take a seat. Hermann Kelly ran for Irish Freedom Party in Europe in June, also their Leader. Tracy O'Hanlon, one of their candidates in the Locals is now running as an Independent as a result. Thomas Clare from Dunleer a former FF Cllr from some time ago is also running. Ryan McKeown in his 20s is with Independent Ireland. Niall McCreanor ran in Ardee in June for SD. Michael O'Dowd of Aontu, a former Cllr himself for FG is a brother of Fergus O'Dowd the former FG TD.
Prediction: 2SF, 1LAB, 1FG, 1FF/1ND (Callan) I see it between FF and Callan for the last seat at the moment, I could be wrong but geography and transfers might tell the tale. Louth could have its own Rahanna box yet!
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 21, 2024 9:48:16 GMT
Open access:-
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 21, 2024 10:07:46 GMT
When does any political commentator or media outlet say "actually this election is not very important"? |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 861
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Post by obsie on Nov 21, 2024 12:17:21 GMT
Like a lot of other theological offshoots of Republicanism, they still *exist* - they have one county councillor in Conamara - but they're no longer any sort of meaningful force. However, O'Curráin who was re-elected this year is actually on the ballot paper as an Independent. I think this is because RSF are not a registered party on the ballot paper. They don't register as a party with the "Free State authorities" out of principle. My recollection is that in February 1982 (the last pre-split election SF contested) the candidates changed their names by deed poll to, e.g. "Seán Lynch Sinn Féin" to get around the restriction on party names on the ballot paper. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 21, 2024 12:46:53 GMT
When does any political commentator or media outlet say "actually this election is not very important"? after the disappointing results are in, occasionally |
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