|
|
Post by greyfriar on Nov 10, 2024 18:45:49 GMT
Did you ever find out who Mena was? And if so, who was she? She was a friend of my Mum's who died decades ago. Sad story actually, cancer took her leaving a young family. If I'd have know, I would definitely have put flowers on the grave. Offer a Mass for her intention and there can be no argument it trumps any blooms. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 10, 2024 20:02:38 GMT
Limerick is next first the home of Munster Rugby the Limerick City constituency. Limerick City (4) loses the Tipperary area back to Tipperary North and is Limerick City and suburbs like Castletroy around University Limerick and the Castleconnell area.
Current TDs: Willie O'Dea FF, Minister of State Kieran O'Donnell FG, Maurice Quinlivan SF and Brian Leddin Green.
Quinlivan and Leddin both tried to get elected as Directly elected Mayor of Limerick City. There was a very high turnout. Leddin polled very poorly as a sitting TD, behind the Soc Dem Cllr Elisa O'Donovan who is running here for example. I consider Leddin gone. His transfers could be key for the last seat. If they go left to O'Donovan she could also take Labour transfers but this depends how well they poll. Quinlivan came fourth, not great for him FPV wise but SF gained a seat in Limerick City as a result. Quinlivan will essentially retain the seat that he captured from Labour several years ago as there was always a left-wing seat here. Its probably more likely that Frankie Ryan sitting Independent Cllr could attract the non-party vote.
Of those running the FF candidate Dee Ryan has benefitted considerably from her positive third-place showing in the Mayoral contest which also had TV debates. Formerly of FG and a senior figure in Limerick City Chamber of Commerce she has a chance of gaining a second seat for the party on a good day. I consider O'Dea safe again. Tactical FF votes in certain areas should go 1 Ryan and 2 O'Dea.
Regarding FG O'Donnell is relatively safe to retain his seat as Senator Maria Byrne will not attract the lion-share of FG support.
Prediction: 1FF/1FG/1SF and last seat between Dee Ryan of FF/Frankie Ryan Independent with transfers of O'Donovan and Leddin critical.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 10, 2024 20:34:54 GMT
Current TDs: Willie O'Dea FF, Minister of State Kieran O'Donnell FG, Maurice Quinlivan SF and Brian Leddin Green. I consider O'Dea safe again. Goodness, is he really still a thing? |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
Member is Online
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 10, 2024 21:30:55 GMT
Limerick is next first the home of Munster Rugby the Limerick City constituency. Limerick City (4) loses the Tipperary area back to Tipperary North and is Limerick City and suburbs like Castletroy around University Limerick and the Castleconnell area. Current TDs: Willie O'Dea FF, Minister of State Kieran O'Donnell FG, Maurice Quinlivan SF and Brian Leddin Green. Quinlivan and Leddin both tried to get elected as Directly elected Mayor of Limerick City. There was a very high turnout. Leddin polled very poorly as a sitting TD, behind the Soc Dem Cllr Elisa O'Donovan who is running here for example. I consider Leddin gone. His transfers could be key for the last seat. If they go left to O'Donovan she could also take Labour transfers but this depends how well they poll. Quinlivan came fourth, not great for him FPV wise but SF gained a seat in Limerick City as a result. Quinlivan will essentially retain the seat that he captured from Labour several years ago as there was always a left-wing seat here. Its probably more likely that Frankie Ryan sitting Independent Cllr could attract the non-party vote. Of those running the FF candidate Dee Ryan has benefitted considerably from her positive third-place showing in the Mayoral contest which also had TV debates. Formerly of FG and a senior figure in Limerick City Chamber of Commerce she has a chance of gaining a second seat for the party on a good day. I consider O'Dea safe again. Tactical FF votes in certain areas should go 1 Ryan and 2 O'Dea. Regarding FG O'Donnell is relatively safe to retain his seat as Senator Maria Byrne will not attract the lion-share of FG support. Prediction: 1FF/1FG/1SF and last seat between Dee Ryan of FF/Frankie Ryan Independent with transfers of O'Donovan and Leddin critical. I expect there to be a decent FPV for Aontu's Sarah J Beasley. Formerly working for Maurice Quinlivan, she is a formidable campaigner on drug addiction, homelessness and animal protection. She got elected as a councillor in the local elections, whilst outpolling Labour, SDP, PBP and Greens in FPV in the Mayoral elections. Not bad for an English-born candidate. Her transfers may well be significant. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 0:00:53 GMT
Limerick County is next and is unchanged as a 3 seater taking in the rest of County Limerick of Rathkeale, Newcastle-West, Kilmallock, Patrickswell. It is effectively similar to the old Limerick West constituency.
Sitting TDs: Niall Collins FF, Patrick O'Donovan FG and Richard O'Donoghue IIP and formerly elected as an Independent.
On the face of it I see no change here. All 3 are big beasts in their respective parties and Niall Collins and Patrick O'Donovan will be considerably ahead of their running mates, Bridie Collins and Noreen Stokes on the first count.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 0:02:09 GMT
Current TDs: Willie O'Dea FF, Minister of State Kieran O'Donnell FG, Maurice Quinlivan SF and Brian Leddin Green. I consider O'Dea safe again. Goodness, is he really still a thing? That piece of satire actually helped his streetcred as it happens! |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 9:04:19 GMT
Arguably they are competing for much of the same vote and territory of the Soc Dems, now led by the photogenic Holly Cairns, from rural Cork SW. She is very telegenetic and popular. Sinn Féin remain the main opposition. To be blunt they had an excellent NI election and got the top job there so they're King of the Castle in Belfast and should be cock of the hoop. Is that actually the phrase in Irish English, or are you mixing up "cock-a-hoop" with "cock of the walk"? Also, having Googled Holly Cairns based on your glowing description, I think you've gone a tad over the top there about her looks! FYI Holly is pregnant and her due date precedes the vote. She previously had 2 misses. www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/11/11/election-day-so-close-to-due-date-of-her-first-baby-that-holly-cairns-will-lead-socdems-campaign-from-west-cork/ |
|
obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 862 
|
Post by obsie on Nov 11, 2024 9:18:19 GMT
Leddin polled very poorly as a sitting TD, behind the Soc Dem Cllr Elisa O'Donovan who is running here for example. I consider Leddin gone. His transfers could be key for the last seat. If they go left to O'Donovan she could also take Labour transfers but this depends how well they poll. Leddin and O'Donovan have history as former partners with a less than amicable breakup and a semi-public aftermath involving WhatsApp messages being leaked to the newspapers and solicitors' letters. Whether the voters notice from the POV of transfers remain to be seen. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 10:46:57 GMT
Leddin polled very poorly as a sitting TD, behind the Soc Dem Cllr Elisa O'Donovan who is running here for example. I consider Leddin gone. His transfers could be key for the last seat. If they go left to O'Donovan she could also take Labour transfers but this depends how well they poll. Leddin and O'Donovan have history as former partners with a less than amicable breakup and a semi-public aftermath involving WhatsApp messages being leaked to the newspapers and solicitors' letters. Whether the voters notice from the POV of transfers remain to be seen. Interesting spice for Limerick City. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
Member is Online
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 11, 2024 11:48:44 GMT
Leddin polled very poorly as a sitting TD, behind the Soc Dem Cllr Elisa O'Donovan who is running here for example. I consider Leddin gone. His transfers could be key for the last seat. If they go left to O'Donovan she could also take Labour transfers but this depends how well they poll. Leddin and O'Donovan have history as former partners with a less than amicable breakup and a semi-public aftermath involving WhatsApp messages being leaked to the newspapers and solicitors' letters. Whether the voters notice from the POV of transfers remain to be seen. Indeed - she also has quite a controversial social media presence, being very intolerant of views that don't align with hers. I remember seeing a video of her during Covid restrictions, where she was furiously pacing the street whilst calling the guards to remove a very small group of people praying the rosary outside a Church, which they couldn't enter as Churches were closed at the time. They were socially distanced but she wasn't having it. It seemed like a bit of an unnecessary own goal and I know other SD politicians were not exactly chuffed about it. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 12:31:01 GMT
So, I've been in Ireland for over a week and the forthcoming election hit us from the first night in Rathgar where Kate O'Connell is running as an independent in Dublin Bay South (her pharmacy has her candidacy splashed on it!) and, whilst there was less action in Wexford, in Kerry, where we are for the next 3 weeks, there is plenty! KerrySo far declared candidates: 2 Healy-Rae's 3 FF (!) 1 FG (!) 1 SF (!) 1 Lab 1 Green/Aontu/PBP/2 further Independents (one the son of an FF TD) /Irish Freedom Party, Present TDs: 2 Healy-Rae's, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF with (just) the FG TD retiring. On arrival in Killarney, there were only FG and 1 FF leaflets through the door with the FF one much more local/specific. On the N22 there are parked lorries backing the same FF person and Danny Healy-Rae (Killarney voters were asked to preference him first in 2020) and in town 2 of the FF candidates have election offices. I don't see Lab (with a candidate some way from their remaining Tralee 'strongerhold') or the others put in the one line above getting enough traction so, if SF and FG are only going for 1 seat each, then it is most likely just FF pushing for a second TD at the expense of one of the other parties/Healy-Rae's i.e. there are 7 bigger candidates (including all 3 FFs) going for 5 seats with the most likely outcome being no change from the present. Of course it would be great to see 1 FF edge out either a Healy-Rae or the SF but the major battle is likely to be between the 3 of them to come ahead of the other 2. Borrowing the profile from Dizz. Kerry remains a 5 seater and takes in all of the Kingdom of Kerry where Kerrygold is made and the home of the Lakes of Killarney, the Ring of Kerry, Sneem (liked by de Gaulle) and Killarney (liked by Queen Victoria), Dingle and the Kerry Gaeltacht, the Puc Fair, Sliabh Luacra and of course the International Rose of Tralee festival or The Lovely Girls contest as shown on Fr Ted! "Now Ted!" Your right: "They all have lovely bottoms." Expect the Healy-Rae's to divide the constituency in two like before for FPV votes and they have a Council organisation to back them up. Also give SF a seat. Stronger in North Kerry than South, reverse for the Healy-Raes. Geography is key to Kerry voting patterns as it used be 2 three-seaters here. With the Griffin retirement FG have chosen former GAA player John Paul O'Shea. This is a proven strategy here as previously they chose Jimmy Deenihan in the 1980s who had a long career in Kerry politics. FF will take a seat through Foley. Michael Cahill is a long-serving Councillor and will poll well, better than Kelleher, who's husband is a former Mayor of Kerry. But I don't think the party can take a second seat here. Tom McEllistrim couldn't return to the Council so don't think he will feature much here in the Count. Prediction: No change. 2IND, 1FF, 1SF, 1FG. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 17:30:04 GMT
Cork South-West (3) Unchanged. Contains Ireland's southern most point and encompasses the LEAs of Bandon-Kinsale, Bantry-West Cork and Skibbereen-West Cork in their entirity. Traditionally a FG heartland and the home of Michael Collins the party spiritual founder in Sam's Cross, Clonakilty and a monument where he was shot. Takes in Bantry, Bandon, Schull, Clonakilty, Skibbereen* and Kinsale.
*Why I left Old Skibbereen is an old Famine Song associated with the area and emigration.
Current TDs: Holly Cairns (SD), Michael Collins (Independent Ireland) and Christopher O'Sullivan (FF).
Collins is the Leader of the IIP. They are strong on Cork County Council and in all of the LEAs of Cork SW. He also bears the name Michael Collins and will be re-elected comfortably.
Holly Cairns became Leader of the SDs following the stepping-down of Roisin Shorthall and Catherine Murphy. A farmer she entered politics by surviving a re-count by 1 vote in 2019 and was then elected to the last Dail due to transfers. She has built a Council organisation in the area also. A good performer I predict she will get the necessary transfers from Lab/GRN/SFIndependents etc to retain her seat. She is currently with child.
The last seat will therefore be a battle between FF and FG. This is where it gets really interesting as a quasi re-run of the Civil War!
FG are running 2 candidates, Senator Tim Lombard, a long-time associate of Simon Coveney and Noel Donovan a Cllr for Skibbereen who topped the poll in June. Lombard has never made it to the Dáil before despite Coveney's backing and lost out last time also. If FG win a seat it will be through O'Donovan.
FF's Christopher O'Sullivan is running again. His late dad, Christy, was a former Independent Cllr and briefly a FF TD himself. Alan Coleman the Cllr from Bandon is running again. He quit the party after Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony was chosen ahead of him at Convention. He lost out on that occasion and we could expect a significant proportion of his transfers to favour FF. However, Bandon was also Murphy-O'Connor's area and he may increase his FPV there as a result. Now married, O'Sullivan was in a relationship with Holly Cairns when they were on the Council together and when they got elected to the Dáil. FF are hoping the singly candidate strategy will help them this time here like FG in Kerry.
Prediction: 1IIP, 1SD, last seat between FF and FG and at the moment I favour FF with the incumbency factor and because the FF leader is also from Cork.
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 20:30:58 GMT
Cork North-West (3) Remains a 3 seat constituency but becomes more rural losing the north Cork suburb of Ballincollig to Cork North-Central. The constituency is a large swathe of largely rural Cork territory forming a Sweden like shape on the electoral map with the main towns being Macroom and Kanturk. Millstreet which once hosted Eurovision in 1993 is also found here as is Buttevant with a famous bridge and Charleville, famous for irish cheese.*
*Cheesy Eurovision tribute to Niamh Kavanagh winning the 1993 Eurovision in Millstreet.
Current TDs: Aindrias & Michael Moynihan of FF and Michael Creed of FG who is retiring.
Neither Moynihan is related to each other. They just have a common surname. Aindrias' father Donal was a former TD and Councillor for the Constituency and his sister, Gobnait, is now a Councillor in his neck of the woods. Both are fluent Irish speakers. There is also a Councillor Bernard Moynihan who is another FF relative. Michael Moynihan first got elected in 1997 taking an FG seat and has retained it ever since serving as the Chairman of Ogra FF for a time before the Youth Wing became a separate unit of the party and also leading the party's Constituencies Organising Committee that played a crucial role in selecting candidates for elections in the past. Of the two Aindrias is electorally stronger but both come from different parts of the constituency.
Cllr Michael Creed is running for FG. What? I thought he was retiring? Yes a ready-made replacement for FG in the form of his cousin, name-sake and some say body double! For the FG seat its either Creed or Cllr John Paul O'Shea who was a former Independent Cllr before being recruited into the FG fold and a former Cathaoirleach of Cork CC.
As for others SF did not contest this constituency in the last election. Labour have no candidate and Martin Coughlan now an Independent Cllr was a former Senator for the party.
This constituency is still very much FF and FG.
Prediction: 2FF 1FG.
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,721
Member is Online
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 11, 2024 21:02:05 GMT
Cork North-West (3) Remains a 3 seat constituency but becomes more rural losing the north Cork suburb of Ballincollig to Cork North-Central. The constituency is a large swathe of largely rural Cork territory forming a Sweden like shape on the electoral map with the main towns being Macroom and Kanturk. Millstreet which once hosted Eurovision in 1993 is also found here as is Buttevant with a famous bridge and Charleville, famous for irish cheese.* *Cheesy Eurovision tribute to Niamh Kavanagh winning the 1993 Eurovision in Millstreet. Current TDs: Aindrias & Michael Moynihan of FF and Michael Creed of FG who is retiring. Neither Moynihan is related to each other. They just have a common surname. Aindrias' father Donal was a former TD and Councillor for the Constituency and his sister, Gobnait, is now a Councillor in his neck of the woods. Both are fluent Irish speakers. There is also a Councillor Bernard Moynihan who is another FF relative. Michael Moynihan first got elected in 1997 taking an FG seat and has retained it ever since serving as the Chairman of Ogra FF for a time before the Youth Wing became a separate unit of the party and also leading the party's Constituencies Organising Committee that played a crucial role in selecting candidates for elections in the past. Of the two Aindrias is electorally stronger but both come from different parts of the constituency. Cllr Michael Creed is running for FG. What? I thought he was retiring? Yes a ready-made replacement for FG in the form of his cousin, name-sake and some say body double! For the FG seat its either Creed or Cllr John Paul O'Shea who was a former Independent Cllr before being recruited into the FG fold and a former Cathaoirleach of Cork CC. As for others SF did not contest this constituency in the last election. Labour have no candidate and Martin Coughlan now an Independent Cllr was a former Senator for the party. This constituency is still very much FF and FG. Prediction: 2FF 1FG. I am surprised you make no mention of Becky Kealy - she was the second highest vote catcher for Aontu in 2020 with 8.4% of the vote in this constituency. She just missed out on a council seat in Macroom by 61 votes in June. I don't expect her to take a seat, but, if she can keep ahead of SF, she might a strong showing. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 11, 2024 21:16:41 GMT
Ah, Niamh Kavanagh - great soul singer. Dublin -born, she now lives in Carrickfergus in the North...
|
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 21:46:44 GMT
I am surprised you make no mention of Becky Kealy - she was the second highest vote catcher for Aontu in 2020 with 8.4% of the vote in this constituency. She just missed out on a council seat in Macroom by 61 votes in June. I don't expect her to take a seat, but, if she can keep ahead of SF, she might a strong showing. A fair point though to be fair Aontu's performance was likely bolstered by the SF absence from the race. I think they'll take FPV votes from each other as a result helping other frontrunners. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 21:52:42 GMT
Ah, Niamh Kavanagh - great soul singer. Dublin -born, she now lives in Carrickfergus in the North... You prompted me, Merseymike! |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Nov 11, 2024 22:28:07 GMT
Cork North-Central (5): Gains a seat from last time due to the addition of the north Cork suburb of Ballincollig. This was the former Taoiseach Jack Lynch's constituency. He used regularly sing "The Banks"
Current TDs: Padraig O'Sullivan (FF), Colm Burke (FG), Thomas Gould (SF) and Mick Barry (PBP).
Thomas Gould is the likely polltopper again. He has a running-mate in Cllr Joe Lynch who is based in Ballincollig but I don't see them making 2 this time round.
Mick Barry, who is actually from Dublin, won a seat on the City Council back in 2004 for the PBP equivalents then and has had a Trade Union background. His longstanding activism helped him win a seat in the first-place but last time had SF run a second candidate they would have won at his expense. I think he could be in trouble from the Independent Ireland Councillor Ken O'Flynn. Son of former FF Cork North-Central TD, Noel O'Flynn, Ken was co-opted to his seat on the Council with the abolition of the Dual Mandate and retained it ever since and has since parted ways with FF and is now Independent Ireland. I understand he has recently married his long-standing male partner. As a former Lord Mayor himself he has name recognition and I think he can take a seat at the expense of Barry.
Burke, recently appointed as a Minister of State, retained the solitary FG seat here of Dara Murphy last time and is running with Cllr Garret Kelleher of Ballincollig and Imelda Daly a schoolteacher. I favour Burke to hold on.
FF are also running three with O'Sullivan who retained Billy Kelleher's seat in a by-election and then at the Dáil election, Cllr Tony Fitzgerald a former Lord Mayor and Sandra Murphy-Kelleher, the wife of FF Cllr Colm Kelleher. O'Sullivan is assured to retain a seat.
Labour are running 2 candidates as part of the Mallow area, historically the political base of the Sherlock family has moved into this constituency. North Central became the base of Kathleen Lynch formerly of the WP/DL who is now gone from politics though Cllr John Moran is from the North Side. Cllr Oliver Moran represents the Greens here though typically they fare better south of the Lee and SDs have 2 candidates. There are a lot of left-wing votes to transfer including Aontu and this is one of the last bastions of WP support.
Prediction: 1SF,1FF,1FG,1IIP and last seat between PBP/FF/SF/Lab
|
|
johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,551
Member is Online
|
Post by johnloony on Nov 11, 2024 22:38:05 GMT
Ah, Niamh Kavanagh - great soul singer. Dublin -born, she now lives in Carrickfergus in the North... You prompted me, Merseymike! I prefer the Declan Galbraith version. |
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Nov 12, 2024 11:32:03 GMT
Cork North-Central (5): Gains a seat from last time due to the addition of the north Cork suburb of Ballincollig. This was the former Taoiseach Jack Lynch's constituency. He used regularly sing "The Banks" Current TDs: Padraig O'Sullivan (FF), Colm Burke (FG), Thomas Gould (SF) and Mick Barry (PBP). Thomas Gould is the likely polltopper again. He has a running-mate in Cllr Joe Lynch who is based in Ballincollig but I don't see them making 2 this time round. Mick Barry, who is actually from Dublin, won a seat on the City Council back in 2004 for the PBP equivalents then and has had a Trade Union background. His longstanding activism helped him win a seat in the first-place but last time had SF run a second candidate they would have won at his expense. I think he could be in trouble from the Independent Ireland Councillor Ken O'Flynn. Son of former FF Cork North-Central TD, Noel O'Flynn, Ken was co-opted to his seat on the Council with the abolition of the Dual Mandate and retained it ever since and has since parted ways with FF and is now Independent Ireland. I understand he has recently married his long-standing male partner. As a former Lord Mayor himself he has name recognition and I think he can take a seat at the expense of Barry. Burke, recently appointed as a Minister of State, retained the solitary FG seat here of Dara Murphy last time and is running with Cllr Garret Kelleher of Ballincollig and Imelda Daly a schoolteacher. I favour Burke to hold on. FF are also running three with O'Sullivan who retained Billy Kelleher's seat in a by-election and then at the Dáil election, Cllr Tony Fitzgerald a former Lord Mayor and Sandra Murphy-Kelleher, the wife of FF Cllr Colm Kelleher. O'Sullivan is assured to retain a seat. Labour are running 2 candidates as part of the Mallow area, historically the political base of the Sherlock family has moved into this constituency. North Central became the base of Kathleen Lynch formerly of the WP/DL who is now gone from politics though Cllr John Moran is from the North Side. Cllr Oliver Moran represents the Greens here though typically they fare better south of the Lee and SDs have 2 candidates. There are a lot of left-wing votes to transfer including Aontu and this is one of the last bastions of WP support. Prediction: 1SF,1FF,1FG,1IIP and last seat between PBP/FF/SF/Lab In Cork city at the weekend we stumbled on the house he was born in. Interesting fact - he won 6 Hurling and 1 Gaelic Football 'All Irelands' - an amazing stat even when having the help of being born in a bigger county! |
|
