Irish elections

[timrollpickering]

Ipsos/Mrbi Poll for the Irish Times

Fine Gael 33% (-3)
Labour 13% (-6)
Sinn Féin 21% (+6)
Fianna Fáil 14% (-1)
Independent 19% (+4)

[The Bishop]

Changes compared to what??

That FF remain totally in the doldrums is most striking - and heartening

[Richard Allen]

Apr 19, 2012 20:33:28 GMT The Bishop said:

Changes compared to what??

That FF remain totally in the doldrums is most striking - and heartening

Indeed. However the IRA figure is quite disturbing.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Not surprising though. In these circumstances there's a clear opening for a left-wing opening, and for as long as Irish Labour remain too godawful to take that opening (i. e. forever and a day) Sinn Féin are the only party that can plausibly play that role.

[slicesofjim]

Not really, the ULA stand to gain as well. Would be nice to have the ULA poll figures rather than them being lumped in with 'Independent'.

[timrollpickering]

Considering the United Left Alternative is a contradiction in terms it may not be very easy to poll for it.

[slicesofjim]

Not really. It's just that in the ULA any disagreements are openly and democratically debated and resolved, unlike in the mainstream parties. It's clear what my interest is in having the ULA included in polls, but even from an academic point of view it would be valuable - for the purposes of analysis what use is a large and undifferentiated 'independents' category ranging from the far left to far right with every conceivable shade and character in between?

[irish observer]

These polls are largely irrelevant given that politics is in a considerable state of flux in the country at present.

I would say to UK observers that the only opinion polls to watch in Ireland over the next 6 weeks will be those on the upcoming Fiscal Referendum. The Government decided, poorly, to set the date for this time and it is likely rushed and will be a lot closer than they think. Many unions have called for a no vote. The Govt. have poorly handled attempts to introduce septic tank charges (I kid you not), household charges (a starting attempt at a property tax) and now have announced plans to introduce water charges along with a charge for the installation of meters. The health minister said the other day he planned to ban people from smoking in public parks. The budget continues to ramble on and the Social Welfare Bill and amendments passed all stages in the Dáil last night. The Labour social welfare Minister oversaw cuts to one parent family payments, domicillary care allowances, pension legislation which will particularly affect women with incomplete PRSI records among other issues.

I mention these points above to highlight that while I might know how important this referendum is for this country, though I do not support this Government, all of the above issues together with residual anti-European sentiment will be a factor in the outcome. It will be a hard won campaign.

Incidentally regarding a previous thread I will declare my hand and say that I am a member of Fianna Fáil, since 1998, and I don't consider myself corrupt nor do I consider that to be a fair reflection of my fellow cumman members, friends etc. I have had relatives who have held elected office for the party at all levels of council, Dáil and Ministerial level and they were never accused of corruption. I also have relatives who have/hold elected office for other parties and neither have they. People were let into my party who should not have been and they have disgraced its legacy, its name, its achievements and its founding members. In previous times they might have been shot. But to tar an entire organisation as corrupt for the sins of a few is not justifiable and is lazy and I do believe that some of you have a skewed view of my party's history and its current position, possibly emanating from reading wikipedia. I can recommend some books by Irish and UK academics should any of wish to delve deeper into the topic through pm.

[irish observer]

Apr 25, 2012 21:54:41 GMT @boogieeck said:

You were wrong on Michael Collins. Its like the yanks murdering George Washington.

I could split hairs with you, my Scottish friend, and say that my party didn't exist when Collins was killed and wouldn't for another four years actually. I could also say that to the average Irish person reeking over the coals of the civil war is a matter of irrelevance other than to members of the Fine Gael party.

When a figure such as Collins, who has made significant contributions to a national movement for independence, dies at a young age similar to the age of Christ, you get many biographies, documentaries and even film speculating on what might have been if he had lived. We have seen this with different figures in music, history, politics, sport and the arts to name but a few areas. There then develops an element of deification and revisionism.

But concluding with regard to Collins he was a ruthless man and more a pragmatist than a democrat. He ordered the assassination of Henry Wilson, a result of which Churchill ordered him to shell the Four Courts and the civil war commenced. He left plans for an invasion of Northern Ireland by Pro and Anti Treaty IRA units in the area supported by his new Irish Army which ultimately failed at its inception but may have been better advanced had he lived. He also named Eoin O'Duffy as his successor so it is speculative to see would he have pursued completely democratic actions if in power. Cosgrave and the rest aspired the completely democratic route.

[Sibboleth]

Apr 25, 2012 16:53:18 GMT @italianobserver said:

Incidentally regarding a previous thread I will declare my hand and say that I am a member of Democrazia Cristiana, since 1978, and I don't consider myself corrupt nor do I consider that to be a fair reflection of my fellow cumman members, friends etc. I have had relatives who have held elected office for the party at all levels of council, Parliamentary and Ministerial level and they were never accused of corruption. I also have relatives who have/hold elected office for other parties and neither have they. People were let into my party who should not have been and they have disgraced its legacy, its name, its achievements and its founding members. In previous times they might have been shot. But to tar an entire organisation as corrupt for the sins of a few is not justifiable and is lazy and I do believe that some of you have a skewed view of my party's history and its current position, possibly emanating from reading wikipedia. I can recommend some books by Italian and UK academics should any of wish to delve deeper into the topic through pm.

[markgoodair]

TDs to be cut by eight to 158 under commission proposal.
www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0525/breaking11.html

[Davıd Boothroyd]

First tallies in from the Meath East byelection suggest it will be close between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with Labour performing poorly. Live blog here: liveblog.irishtimes.com/377d31a255/LIVE-Meath-East-Count-/

[Richard Allen]

Looking like a 1st preference lead of around 4% for Fine Gael. That should be enough.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It'll be interesting to see, though, if Fianna Fáil are still as transfer-toxic as they were in 2011.

[Richard Allen]

McENTEE, Helen FG 38.5% 9356
BYRNE, Thomas FF 32.9% 8002
O'ROURKE, Darren SF 13.0% 3165
GILROY, Ben DDI 6.5% 1568
HOLMES, Eoin LAB 4.6% 1112
Ó BUACHALLA, Seán GP 1.7% 423
McDONAGH, Seamus WP 1.1% 263
MARTIN, Mick IND 0.8% 190
KEDDY, Charlie IND 0.5% 110
O'BRIEN, Gerard IND 0.3% 73
TALLON, Jim IND 0.2% 47

[Davıd Boothroyd]

You want to use the 'pre' tag with that, viz:

McENTEE, Helen 	FG 		38.5% 	9356
BYRNE, Thomas 	FF 		32.9% 	8002
O'ROURKE, Darren   SF    	13.0% 	3165
GILROY, Ben 	DDI 		6.5% 	1568
HOLMES, Eoin 	LAB 		4.6% 	1112
Ó BUACHALLA, Seán  GP 	        1.7% 	423
McDONAGH, Seamus  WP	        1.1% 	263
MARTIN, Mick 	IND 		0.8% 	190
KEDDY, Charlie 	IND 		0.5% 	110
O'BRIEN, Gerard IND 	        0.3% 	73
TALLON, Jim 	IND 		0.2% 	47

Ó Buachalla, McDonagh, Martin, Keddy, O'Brien and Tallon have all been eliminated in stage 2 as their votes combined wouldn't be more than Holmes.

[erlend]

Second Count

McEntee FG 9547
Byrne FF 8106
O'Rourke SF 3370
Gilroy DDI 1793
Holmes Lab 1245

Eliminating the bottom 3 as they can't overtake Byrne even if their votes cumulate on one of them.

With apologies that i am not really computer literate enough for that to look nice.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I make it that Fine Gael got nearly twice as many transfers out of that as Fianna Fáil.

[erlend]

FG +191, FF +94, SF +205, DDI +225, Lab +133 Total 848. Non transferrable 258.

So a 77% transfer rate. I assume that will be lower on the final round when the choice is FG and FF.

[greatkingrat]

Surely they could have just eliminated everyone but the top two on the first count?