Irish elections

[thinwhiteduke]

[hiberno]

A few things there. There is usually a shy FF effect but the Dublin constituency should go
Cuffe Green
Fitzgerald FG
Daly Indy4change (Hard Left)

The final seat is a scrap between FF and SF.
Arguably a worse loss for Sinn Féin than FF.
Fantastic Green performance
Irish Labour on life support deservedly
Disappointing for Labours offshoot, the Social Democrats

Ireland Mid/West/North
Mc Guinness FG
Carthy SF
Mc Hugh Green
Walsh

Terrible FF performance by 2 2nd rate candidates
Sensational Green performance in an area that they never would have expected to be close

Ireland South
Kelly FG zzzzzz
Kelleher FF
O’ Sullivan Green again amazing performance
Wallace indo4change (hard left) political and personal partner of Clare Daly. He’s rather bizarrely a socialist bankrupt property developer

[hiberno]

Not a great result for any of the major political parties except the Greens who seem to have put their disastrous coalition with FF from 2007-2012 finally behind them. Neither FG or FF will be in a rush to cause a General Election

[thinwhiteduke]

Suspect, Boylans (SF) seat in Dublin is gone on those figures.

[cogload]

Mick Wallace FFS.

[thinwhiteduke]

13% collapse for SF, if this exit poll proves right.

[andrea]

Other local elections exit polls

Local first preference vote, rest of Leinster. FG 27%, FF 27%, IND 12%, SF 11%, Green 5%, Lab 6%. Margin of Error 3%

Local election first preference Connacht Ulster. FG 24%, FF 26% IND 17%, SF 16%, Green 6%, Lab 3% Margin of Error 3%

Local elections first preference Munster. FG 25%, FF 24%, IND 18%, SF 12%, Lab 7%, Green 7%. Margin of error 3%

[thinwhiteduke]

[Deleted]

How have Sinn Féin done so badly? I'd have thought that the moribund state of the Irish Labour Party would have helped them sweep up the left-wing vote?

[Georg Ebner]

May 25, 2019 14:59:27 GMT @europeanlefty said:

How have Sinn Féin done so badly? I'd have thought that the moribund state of the Irish Labour Party would have helped them sweep up the left-wing vote?

GREENS; this and that Indepenent.

[thinwhiteduke]

SF have been absolutely hammered in Dublin.

[thinwhiteduke]

[Arthur Figgis]

May 25, 2019 20:07:18 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

SF have been absolutely hammered in Dublin.

Murdered, massacred, shot down, Disappeared even.

[obsie]

May 23, 2019 14:23:15 GMT CatholicLeft said:

I am looking forward to the Irish local elections tomorrow - I love the accuracy of the tallymen, the incredibly local focus of many of the campaigns and the results as they come in, transfers and all. Also, they have mayoral plebiscites for Cork City Council, Limerick City and County Council & Waterford City and County Council.
Official count begins on Saturday morning.

*thumbs up after a long day - started at 8.30am and finished at midnight (probably with another couple of days left)*

[The Bishop]

So what are the likely reasons for this SF decline?

[jamie]

May 25, 2019 11:44:50 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

13% collapse for SF, if this exit poll proves right.

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

[obsie]

May 26, 2019 9:32:20 GMT The Bishop said:

So what are the likely reasons for this SF decline?

1. People are no longer at the sharp end of austerity. The 2014 elections coincided with the peak of a popul(ar/ist) campaign centred in working-class areas against a maladroitly-handled water charge imposed by a foot-in-mouth and arrogant government and which was seen as an imposition too far by people who had been on the sharp end of service cuts, wage cuts and increased taxes over the previous six years. This also applies to the decline of the far left in much of the Dublin banlieues.

2. The Irish left in general has become far too focused on the culture wars almost to the exclusion of all else. Culture war politics don't particularly win you votes because the most extreme partisans will usually find something else to fault you on while those of your supporters who fall on the other side of the culture war line get alienated and the indifferent middle tune out because they don't see you as addressing their concerns. What culture war left vote there is seems to have migrated towards the SocDems but it's a limited vote in most areas. SF and Trot voters weren't attracted to those parties on the basis of the culture wars in the first place (it's become much more of a focus for those parties since the intensification of the abortion campaign in 2017).

3. SF voters in the North have a choice between themselves, the SDLP, or largely marginal dissidents and SF are still by far the largest nationalist party and are able to rally voters against DUP/Tory Brexit policy and perceived slights; in the South there's a much wider range of options, none of whom support Brexit apart from the Trots and Tankies (who have reverse-ferreted pretty damn quickly on this) and a few small right-wing fringe groups who are seen as weirdos and effective Quislings.

4. SF elected a lot of new councillors in 2014 and have lost a lot of those over the intervening five years - some were people who might not have expected to be elected or who were newcomers to the party and found they didn't fit in, but there have been a number of allegations of bullying towards people which didn't seem to be stamped on by head office. In a couple of these places like Tipperary and Westmeath, this seems to have resulted in exceptionally bad results for SF. These things get local publicity even if they don't always get national publicity and it matters.

5. I would say that McDonald has been a disappointment as leader. She was and is a good Dáil performer in terms of aggressively attacking government policy, but as with Pat Rabbitte's Labour leadership in the 2000s this is a double-edged sword in terms of public likeability. Adams tended to fall down once the discussion turned to economics but he had more gravitas and arguably more likeability with the public.

[Deleted]

May 26, 2019 11:18:24 GMT obsie said:

May 26, 2019 9:32:20 GMT The Bishop said:

So what are the likely reasons for this SF decline?

1. People are no longer at the sharp end of austerity. The 2014 elections coincided with the peak of a popul(ar/ist) campaign centred in working-class areas against a maladroitly-handled water charge imposed by a foot-in-mouth and arrogant government and which was seen as an imposition too far by people who had been on the sharp end of service cuts, wage cuts and increased taxes over the previous six years. This also applies to the decline of the far left in much of the Dublin banlieues.

2. The Irish left in general has become far too focused on the culture wars almost to the exclusion of all else. Culture war politics don't particularly win you votes because the most extreme partisans will usually find something else to fault you on while those of your supporters who fall on the other side of the culture war line get alienated and the indifferent middle tune out. What culture war left vote there is seems to have migrated towards the SocDems but it's a limited vote in most areas. SF and Trot voters weren't attracted to those parties on the basis of the culture wars in the first place (it's become much more of a focus for those parties since the intensification of the abortion campaign in 2017).

3. SF voters in the North have a choice between themselves, the SDLP, or largely marginal dissidents and SF are still by far the largest nationalist party and are able to rally voters against DUP/Tory Brexit policy and perceived slights; in the South there's a much wider range of options, none of whom support Brexit apart from the Trots and Tankies (who have reverse-ferreted pretty damn quickly on this) and a few small right-wing fringe groups who are seen as weirdos and effective Quislings.

4. SF elected a lot of new councillors in 2014 and have lost a lot of those over the intervening five years - some were people who might not have expected to be elected or who were newcomers to the party and found they didn't fit in, but there have been a number of allegations of bullying towards people which didn't seem to be stamped on by head office. In a couple of these places like Tipperary and Westmeath, this seems to have resulted in exceptionally bad results for SF. These things get local publicity even if they don't always get national publicity and it matters.

5. I would say that McDonald has been a disappointment as leader. She was and is a good Dáil performer in terms of aggressively attacking government policy, but as with Pat Rabbitte's Labour leadership in the 2000s this is a double-edged sword in terms of public likeability. Adams tended to fall down once the discussion turned to economics but he had more gravitas and arguably more likeability with the public.

Very interesting - thanks.

[thinwhiteduke]

The mighty Healy Rae election machine.. Lol

[thinwhiteduke]