Irish elections

[irish observer]

The above version of "The Banks" was composed by Seán O'Riada pictured. Ireland's greatest composer who wrote Mise Eire. His daughter, Liadh, represented Ireland South for Sinn Féin in Europe. I think she used live in the Cork NW constituency.

[finsobruce]

Nov 12, 2024 12:34:33 GMT irish observer said:

The above version of "The Banks" was composed by Seán O'Riada pictured. Ireland's greatest composer who wrote Mise Eire. His daughter, Liadh, represented Ireland South for Sinn Féin in Europe. I think she used live in the Cork NW constituency.

For a second there I thought you were going to say she represented Ireland in the Eurovision Song contest.

[irish observer]

Cork South-Central (5) Gains a seat at this election. Generally speaking the more middle-class of the Cork City constituencies though contains the proletarian Togher area and the suburb of Carrigaline and all of the City area south of the River Lee. The City is susceptible to flooding which has affected the commercial districts on several occasions. Bishopstown rejoins the constituency this time around from Cork North-Central as it is south of the river. Ringaskiddy and a lot of the Pharma industry can be found her in the constituency but there has always been a left seat here which has on occasions shifted between Labour-DL-GRN-SF.



The Boys of Fairhill* Another Cork City song.

Current TDs: Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath (Now EU Commissioner, who is retiring) of FF, Simon Coveney of FG who is retiring and Donnacha O'Laoghaire of SF.

As a result 3 seats are unoccupied.

Martin is running again with Cllr Seamus McGrath, younger brother of Michael, who polled over 5K votes in the Local Elections. He is from the Passage West area like his brother and is favoured to retain the seat for the party. Also running is Margaret Kenneally who is a businesswoman from Bishopstown. Martin's brother, Seán, is Group Leader of the FF Cllrs on Cork City Council and is a former Lord Mayor. His former Minister Driver, Terry Shannon, and his Constituency Manager, Mary Rose Desmond are also Cllrs on Cork City Council. This strong local organisation helps him retain his seat and with McGrath the party will take 2 again.

Coveney's departure has caused FG a headache. Senator Jerry Buttimer is running again but previously failed to be elected here. Cllr Una McCarthy represents the former LEA of Carrigaline where Coveney lives but was selected due to the gender-quota directive and has been a Cllr since 2023 when she was co-opted and Cllr Shane O'Callaghan topped the poll in Cork City South-Central. I give O'Callaghan the nod to get elected.

O Laoghaire is running again with Michelle Cowhey an unsuccessful candidate in Cork City SC. I favour the retention of the SF seat.

Cllr Laura Harmon of Labour is a former head of the USI (Union of Students of Ireland) and a member of Threshold a labour-lite policy think-thank on Housing Policy. Cllr Padraig Rice runs for the SD and Dr Monika Oikeh is a Cllr for the Greens and the Green candidate. She is Black & Irish. Dan Boyle who previously was a TD here remains a Cllr for the area. Former Independent Lord Mayor Mick Finn is also running. A former youth worker and Fianna Fáil member he is in the running for a seat. Don't see Independent Ireland or Aontu near the races here.

Prediction: 2FF 1SF 1FG GRN/Finn/FG2

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 12, 2024 12:34:33 GMT irish observer said:

The above version of "The Banks" was composed by Seán O'Riada pictured. Ireland's greatest composer ...

Hmm, I had Charles Villiers Stanford in that slot, though you could argue for Van Morrison, I guess.

[Arthur Figgis]

Nov 11, 2024 17:30:04 GMT irish observer said:

Cork South-West (3) Unchanged. Contains Ireland's southern most point and encompasses the LEAs of Bandon-Kinsale, Bantry-West Cork and Skibbereen-West Cork in their entirity. Traditionally a FG heartland and the home of Michael Collins the party spiritual founder in Maam's Cross, Clonakilty and a monument where he was shot. Takes in Bantry, Bandon, Schull, Clonakilty, Skibbereen* and Kinsale.



*Why I left Old Skibbereen is an old Famine Song associated with the area and emigration.

Current TDs: Holly Cairns (SD), Michael Collins (Independent Ireland) and Christopher O'Sullivan (FF).

Collins is the Leader of the IIP. They are strong on Cork County Council and in all of the LEAs of Cork SW. He also bears the name Michael Collins and will be re-elected comfortably.

Holly Cairns became Leader of the SDs following the stepping-down of Roisin Shorthall and Catherine Murphy. A farmer she entered politics by surviving a re-count by 1 vote in 2019 and was then elected to the last Dail due to transfers. She has built a Council organisation in the area also. A good performer I predict she will get the necessary transfers from Lab/GRN/SFIndependents etc to retain her seat. She is currently with child.

The last seat will therefore be a battle between FF and FG. This is where it gets really interesting as a quasi re-run of the Civil War!

FG are running 2 candidates, Senator Tim Lombard, a long-time associate of Simon Coveney and Noel Donovan a Cllr for Skibbereen who topped the poll in June. Lombard has never made it to the Dáil before despite Coveney's backing and lost out last time also. If FG win a seat it will be through O'Donovan.

FF's Christopher O'Sullivan is running again. His late dad, Christy, was a former Independent Cllr and briefly a FF TD himself. Alan Coleman the Cllr from Bandon is running again. He quit the party after Margaret Murphy-O'Mahony was chosen ahead of him at Convention. He lost out on that occasion and we could expect a significant proportion of his transfers to favour FF. However, Bandon was also Murphy-O'Connor's area and he may increase his FPV there as a result. Now married, O'Sullivan was in a relationship with Holly Cairns when they were on the Council together and when they got elected to the Dáil. FF are hoping the singly candidate strategy will help them this time here like FG in Kerry.

Prediction: 1IIP, 1SD, last seat between FF and FG and at the moment I favour FF with the incumbency factor and because the FF leader is also from Cork.

Sam’s Cross, surely?



Maam Cross being a former station on the Midland Great Western’s Galway to Clifden line.

[thinwhiteduke]

Note : constituency polling tends to be inconsistent in accuracy.

[CatholicLeft]

Nov 14, 2024 19:18:34 GMT thinwhiteduke said:

Note : constituency polling tends to be inconsistent in accuracy.

Last two elections, they polled  Kerry and had Danny Healey-Ross on 4% both times - he was elected both times.

[irish observer]

Nov 14, 2024 5:29:43 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Sam’s Cross, surely?



Maam Cross being a former station on the Midland Great Western’s Galway to Clifden line.
[/quote]

Appreciate the song and have amended accordingly, Arthur.

[irish observer]

Waterford (4) All of County and City Waterford. For a longtime a unitary County constituency at Dáil level one Council represents this whole area since 2014. Roughly half the population are from the City of Waterford the former base of Waterford Crystal and Ireland's oldest city, older than Dublin and founded by the Vikings. It was in Waterford that the Irish Tricolour was first flown by Thomas F. Meagher hismelf who would later lead The Irish Brigade during the US Civil War on the Union Side who carried The Tricolour. West in the Comeragh Mountains the population is disparate until you reach Dungarvan. Tramore and Lismore are nice seaside towns and the area has benefitted from use of the Greenway from Dungarvan through Waterford along the River Suir. The Deise have always been a county of their own.*


*A tribute to their great hurlers.

Current TDs: Minister for Older People Mary Butler (FF), David Cullinane (SF), Marc O Casathaigh (GP) and Dr Matt Shanahan (Independent)

All are running again. Cullinane should top the poll again. High-profile with a very strong base in the City where he is from and where his party are the top-dog at LG level since June. Topped the poll last time too. His running mate, Cllr Conor McGuinness, is from the small Ring Gaeltacht area. This is a good strategic West-East divide and I think they have a chance of taking a second seat.

Of all TDs O Casathaigh is most under pressure. In addition the Green MEP O'Sullivan who lost her seat was from Waterford and Cullinane's former partner, Kathleen Funchion, is now SF MEP for the area. Several years ago in Dublin SF took out Patricia McKenna for Europe and built their Dublin base. I think this will help them here to further build in the South-East region and in Munster. I think O Casathaigh is gone.

Butler will hold a seat. Last time around she had a running-mate from the City as she is based in West Waterford but this time is on her own. FG are also adopting a single-candidate strategy in Senator John Cummins from Waterford City. His father, Maurice, was a former FG leader of the Seanad. John failed to get elected last time out to the Dáil hence the one-candidate strategy this time and he has been in politics since 2009.

Shanahan has supported the Government for alot of his time in the Dáil and health services in Waterford have improved as a result. Does he get the credit of will the government parties? Voters are fickle.

Other candidates to note include Cllr Mary Roche of the Social Democrats from Waterford City. Elected for FF in 99 she broke with the party some time ago and became an Indo before joining the SD.

Prediction: 1SF 1FF SF2/FG/Shanahan for 2 seats.

[irish observer]

Tipperary South (3) New constituency. The former Tipperary 5 seater is abolished. This constituency is now all the area of Cahir, Cashel, Fethard, Carrick-on-Suir, Tipperary and Clonmel. Clonmel is the largest population centre and a former Borough, the only Irish town to resist Cromwell out of interest, not this site's poster but the former Lord Protector who banned football and Christmas. Its a nice town I can attest knowing people from there and the main population centre. The Rock of Cashel was the historic place where the Kings of Munster were crowned. Queen Elizabeth II visited there during her well received visit some years ago. Another famous landmark in the constituency is Slievneamon, "Sliabh na Mban" the Mountain of Women that is the subject of a popular ballad and the Tipperary anthem written by the Irish patriot Charles J. Kickham who also wrote The Farm by Lough Gur and Respectability, interesting books about 19th century Irish history. You will often here this song played in Croke Park or Semple Stadium.



Current TDs: None though Martin Browne (SF) and Mattie McGrath (Independent) reside and are running for re-election.

McGrath has enjoyed if not revelled in his role as an anti-Government critic during this Dáil term. Formerly a FF TD he resigned and became an Independent and has been re-elected twice. Lampooned on Radio for a near indecipherable accent at times he is one of the main leaders of the Rural Alliance of Independent TDs and I think he will retain his seat. Several Cllrs including a relative work with him also.

FF have chosen Cllr Imelda Goldsboro as their sole candidate. She is from Carrick-on-Suir and is a poll-topper. I don't know how well she will fare in Clonmel and on this basis I think she is likely to lose out in the running.

FG have gone with veteran Cllr Martin Murphy of Clonmel as their standard-bearer to recapture the former FG seat here held by Tom Hayes and Theresa Ahearn. Their organisation is stronger than FF here in the old South Tipp Council area.

Seamus Healy has decided to run again for the Workers' Unemployed Action Group (WUAG). A Clonmel based organisation which effectively cannibalised the Labour vote in Clonmel, Healy used elect 5/12 Cllrs under the WUAG banner and c.3 to the old County Council. Phil Prendergast a former ally defected to Labour and got elected as a MEP but is now gone from politics as is Michael Ferris old seat here and it was in Tipperary South where the Labour Party was founded. The party are running Cllr Michael "Chicken" Brennan who got elected in June. I don't see him in contention. Last time out Healy's transfers, and he was one of those who voted SF for Taoiseach in the previous Dáil, can be expected to transfer to SF heavily upon his elimination.

The election of Martin Browne surprised many at the last election but given the SF poll rating in 5 seaters it was apparent that on a multiplier effect they would win a seat here. Browne now has incumbency this time. The reverse of elimination holds here. If Browne goes out before Healy he will king him so to speak as Healy can expect to benefit from Chicken Brennan's transfers though some will also find a home with SF.

McGrath's opposition to government policy, immigration etc denies Independent Ireland an opportunity in this area. They are running Nadine Webster a marketing consultant. Cllr John O'Heeney was also elected as an Independent for the first time in June so his transfers can be expected to stay Independent.

Prediction: McGrath (Independent) Murphy FG and Browne v Healy for the last seat with FF transfers ultimately telling the tale.

[irish observer]

Tipperary North (3) New constituency. Basically all of the Nenagh, Newport, Roscrea, Templemore and almost all of the Thurles electoral area including the town of Thurles. Templemore is the Garda Siochana Training College where new recruits are trained every year. Thurles is where the GAA was founded in a hotel by Michael Cusack and 7 other members. Thurles Train Station is historically significant as it is on the Dublin-Cork main line and William Smith O'Brien the Young Irelander was arrested at the platform after the unsuccessful insurrection in 1848 in Ballingarry, South Tipperary. This was in the year of Revolutions across Europe. Ireland's attempt was in South Tipperary, mocked in "Punch" as The Battle of the Widow McCabe's Cabbage-Garden. Of course this was just still during the Famine. History is always alive in Tipperary, the Premier County.



Current TDs: None though Michael Lowry (Independent) resides in Thurles and is running again. As is Alan Kelly of the Labour Party who lives in Newport, old mining territory, some of which was in Limerick City in the last election. Jackie Cahill of FF made the surprise announcement to retire.

Lowry is as safe as houses. A former FG Minister who founded his own Independent organisation he is a regular poll-topper. His son is a Councillor in Thurles and he has allies across the constituency. Cllr Jim Ryan is running for the Dáil this time. Re-elected for Thurles in June he was a member of FF until 2004 when he fell out due to a constituency row and has been Independent since. The Cahill retirement may have encouraged him to run and he may take votes from Lowry and FF.

FG are running Phyll Bugler. A businessowner in Newport her vote will be affected by Lowry.

I consider Kelly relatively here and he has one of the safest Labour seats in the state. A hard-worker on the ground he has a good organisation to boot.

FF are running Cllr Michael Smith, son of the former Minister Michael Smith, from Roscrea and newly-elected Cllr Ryan O'Meara from Nenagh who is from Toomevara. Interestingly he used be a PA for Jackie Cahill. Cahill and Smith were once FF Councillors in the same LEA. Hazarding a wild guess I would speculate that Cahill would favour the candidacy of O'Meara over Smith. Another young Councillor, Sean Ryan, was co-opted to Cahill's Council seat and retained it in June in the re-drawn Thurles area.

Prediction: Lowry (Independent) Kelly (Labour) Smith v O'Meara for the FF seat.

[irish observer]

Cork East (4) is the last Cork constituency and also the last in Munster. The constituency remains a 4 seater centred on large market towns such as Fermoy, Youghal, Cobh, Midleton though loses Mallow to Cork NC and Buttevant and Doneraile to Cork NW. You'll also find the Jameson Distillery in Midleton.



Current TDs: Pat Buckley (SF) and James O'Connor (FF) the current Baby of the Dáil and David Stanton (FG) Seán Sherlock (Lab) who are both retiring,

Sherlock retired after Mallow was hived off to Cork NC. The traditional electoral bailiwick of him and his late father Joe, a former TD for WP, DL and Labour himself for Mallow this town was their electoral heartland. I don't think Labour are even contesting the election here at present so this is one vacancy to be filled for certain. I note as of writing that John Mulvihill of Cobh has stepped into the breech but don't fancy Labour's chances here.

Stanton, a respected TD, is retiring and his son, Mark, is running to retain the seat along with Cllr Noel McCarthy who defected from Labour several years ago. Mark cut his teeth in Union politics as a former President of the USI and may also expect the backing of the local FG organisation. Anyway its one seat for FG.

Pat Buckley won a seat here for SF in 2016 holding that previously won by Youghal based Sandra McClellan who had retired. He is in the Fermoy area himself and I favour him to retain his seat.

FF's James O'Connor won a seat here at the last election. Having worked for Micheál Martin he displaced outgoing Kevin O'Keeffe. His sister, Deirdre O'Brien, former Mayor of Cork, is bidding to make a return to the Dáil for the O'Keeffe's either at James' expense or by winning a second seat for the party. Their father, Ned, used also be a TD for the area and I'm sure will be an interested observer in the events leading up to polling day especially as there is no Sherlock on the ballot paper this time around. Their problems are the twin candidacies of Cllrs Mary Linehan-Foley (Youghal) and William O'Leary (Fermoy) both former FF Cllrs who were re-elected under the Independent banner in June and are running as Independents this time. Linehan-Foley ran at the last election also but didn't feature at the final counts.

The absence of Labour will be watched with interest by the Social Democrats Cllr Liam Quaide who will also be hoping for a sort of a Cork bounce to boost his chances a la Martin for FF.

Prediction: 1FF 1FG 1SF FF2/IND/SD

[CatholicLeft]

Stopping in Derry at the moment. Went for a drive to Grianan of Aileach and then a scout around. Lots of posters up for Charles Ward of 100% Redress Party and my cousins are sure he has a seat in the bag. I was fascinated to see a poster by Sinn Fein with the words "We will get you 100% Redress", so they are under after transfers big time.
Lots of posters for Charlie McConalogue (FF), Tom Pringle (Ind TD), Nikki Bradley (FG), Mary T Sweeney, one or two for Carol Gallagher (PBP) and a couple of others.
I was surprised by the number of posters for Kim McMenimen of the "The Irish People" (part of the far-night National Alliance). He has two types of poster, one where he looks like a business man, and one wearing a woolley hat whilst wagging a finger. Weird.

[irish observer]

Moving to Leinster we move to the first constituency aplhabetically the Carlow-Kilkenny (5). Kilkenny is proud Hurling County sponsored by Avonmore Dairies the Ormond men and women were once ruled by the Butlers, the Norman family who were related to The Howards cousins of The Boleyns once associated with Henry VIII. This is fertile agricultural land. Carlow people are known as the Scallion eaters accordingly for the variety of crops. Oak park the headquarters of Tillage Research by Teagasc the Irish Agricultural Research Institute is undertaken in Carlow Town which is also Teagasc HQ. This area was once home to Irish sugarbeet also and a lot of prime arable land is found here. Kilkenny City is an old Borough and is the main population centre in the County. Kilkenny itself is the larger county and currently 3 TDs are Kilkenny based and 2 from Carlow.

Accordingly a song for each County though part of rural NW Kilkenny has currently been moved into Tipperary North.





Current TDs: John McGuinness and Jennifer Murnane-O'Connor (FF), Minister Malcolm Noonan (Green) Kathleen Funchion (SF) now MEP and John-Paul Phelan FG retiring.

FF are running Cllr Peter 'Chap' Clere along with McGuinness and Murnane-O'Connor. A former hurler for Kilkenny he has been a Councillor for Callan-Thomastown since 2014 and was Cathaoirleach of Kilkenny CC from 2019-20. Murnane-O'Connor is based in Carlow Town where she has a strong base. With Funchion not running she is now the sole Carlow sitting member. McGuinness' son, Andrew, is currently Cathaoirleach of Kilkenny and they are based in the City area. Between the 3 of them I favour them to retain 2 seats.

FG should retain 1 seat. Phelan's base was in South Kilkenny. They are running Cllr David Fitzgerald of Kilkenny City, Cllr Michael Doyle from Thomastown in the South and Catherine Callaghan from Tullow (Carlow).

Malcolm Noonan of the Greens has been in politics longer than many since c.2004 before making it to the Dáil in 2020. He is known in the area and if any Green can attract transfers in a constituency like this as a sitting TD he can. He may also benefit from the absence of 2 incumbents and a residual Labour vote from Cllr O'Hargain which should favour him through transfers. Unless that is it stays anti-Government and goes or attracts SD or PBP in Cllr Adrienne Wallace (Carlow town) transfers that miss SF.

SF are adopting a 2 candidate strategy here in Aine Gladney-Knox and Natasha Newsome-Drennan. Aine's father, Andy Gladney is a SF Cllr in Bagenalstown/Muinebheag where Aine got few votes in June but where her Dad has been a Cllr for 10 years at least. Newsome-Drennan came close to winning a seat in Piltown in June but I think they'll feel the absence of Funchion from the ballot paper. Personally I would have expected a greater lift for SF at local level where an incumbent did become elected as a MEP.

Independent Ireland are running Orla Donohoe which is interesting as John Cassin is a Cllr in Carlow Town. He did quit SF and become an Independent before joining IIP but I would have felt it better to run a sitting Councillor. Cllr Eddie McGuinness from Kilkenny City was also elected as an Independent in June and is also throwing his hat in the ring.

Prediction: 2FF 1FG Noonan/SF/Lab for the last 2 unless an Independent stands out?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There are 682 candidatures for Dáil Éireann, a record. That includes one candidate contesting six constituencies (John O'Leary), and one candidate contesting three constituencies (Ben Gilroy).

Louth has 25 candidates which is an all-time record.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

?

[finsobruce]

Nov 16, 2024 16:52:49 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Stopping in Derry at the moment. Went for a drive to Grianan of Aileach and then a scout around. Lots of posters up for Charles Ward of 100% Redress Party and my cousins are sure he has a seat in the bag. I was fascinated to see a poster by Sinn Fein with the words "We will get you 100% Redress", so they are under after transfers big time.
Lots of posters for Charlie McConalogue (FF), Tom Pringle (Ind TD), Nikki Bradley (FG), Mary T Sweeney, one or two for Carol Gallagher (PBP) and a couple of others.
I was surprised by the number of posters for Kim McMenimen of the "The Irish People" (part of the far-night National Alliance). He has two types of poster, one where he looks like a business man, and one wearing a woolley hat whilst wagging a finger. Weird.

Never underestimate the woolley hat vote.

[YL]

I have just been through and make it 686 candidates:

Fianna Fáil 82
Fine Gael 80
Sinn Féin 71
Green 43
Aontú 43
Solidarity-PBP 42
Labour 32
Independent Ireland 28
Social Democrats 26
The Irish People* 21
Irish Freedom Party 16
National Party* 9
Liberty Republic 6
Rabharta 3
Independents4Change 3
Party for Animal Welfare 3
Centre Party of Ireland 3
Ireland First* 2
Right to Change 1
100% Redress 1
Non Party/blank 171

My differences from the Ireland Votes list are
- an extra Non Party candidate, Sean O'Leary, in Wicklow
- AJ Cahill in Galway West as The Irish People, not IND
- Catríona Ní Chatháin in Clare as Sol-PBP, shown as "SOC" in the Ireland Votes list
- the candidates shown by Ireland Votes as Workers Party and Workers and Unemployed Action do not have these affiliations on the official lists, so they are counted among the Independents.

Parties marked with an asterisk, together with some Independents, form the "National Alliance".

[eastmidlandsright]

Nov 16, 2024 21:17:07 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

There are 682 candidatures for Dáil Éireann, a record. That includes one candidate contesting six constituencies (John O'Leary), and one candidate contesting three constituencies (Ben Gilroy).

Louth has 25 candidates which is an all-time record.

Some of these counts are not exactly going to be speedy affairs. 

[hullenedge]

Transfer preferences:-